lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance
lol..@ every poll i see or read.
lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.
put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
Printable View
lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance
lol..@ every poll i see or read.
lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.
put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
U.S. Presidential Election Props
Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
Under 67½ Million -150
Over 67½ Million +110
Under is money?
Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.
Reasonable number have already voted.
Minds already made up @ this late date.
The novelty of the two together has expired
Yeah, football, I guess.
If you don’t know then I sure don’t. Just a thought.
Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.
I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
I'm upside down a bit in Florida. I am holding until expiration unless something changes there.
I still have FL, NC, and AZ going for Biden. I have IA, OH, and TX going for Trump but I'm still bullish on Biden in TX (and OH to a lesser extent) relative to his price.
538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/
What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.
clicking just TX, OH and IA, states trump won in 2016 by at least 8% puts him at 32% FFS
plop, u need to bail man
sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
I agree that he probably wins all of those states, but they're by no means a lock, especially FL and GA. Guaranteeing those states while leaving states like MI as tossups will of course be a great outcome for Trump. Basically this is like getting it all in on the flop with 40% equity, agreeing to run it 6 times, and your opponent generously spots you the first 2 runs.
If you lock in FL, GA, OH, and IA for Trump, but you also lock in obvious Dem strongholds WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, NY, IL, and VA for Biden (all states that he is 90%+ to win), then Trump's probability goes down to 44%. This is because Trump technically had some equity in those states, just as Biden had some in FL/GA/OH/IA.
damn click on wisconsin though, if that goes red, trump will win
(like i've said from the beginning by the way)
The map is fake news. It won't let me pick Hawaii or New York for Trump (which is what the highly reliable Northpol Model has).
so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
Did CO and VA have senate races that were within a couple points in 2018 and massive demographic shifts making them redder by the day? Even Druff acknowledges the Texas (and Georgia) problem for Republicans. He just thinks it's a 2024 problem.
But no, I don't have a "shit ton" on Texas. I have like $750. I wish I had more at +325 odds, but don't think I'll see that line again.