Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jayjami
The most likely scenario is another Russian offensive that stalls due to their incompetency. But if Russia does “win”, what is the occupation going to look like? It’s not going to be pretty. It’ll drain their coffers and deplete the moral of the Red Army. The Ukrainians ain’t going anywhere. They got time. I’d really like to know what Putin’s end game is.
"The Ukrainians ain't going anywhere."
More than 20% of the Ukrainian population has fled Ukraine. There are 3 million Ukrainian refugees in, get this, Russia. Another 5 million spread across Europe. And they all say they will never go back to Ukraine. The population, once 27 million is now about 19 million. How many more will leave? Meanwhile Zelensky is now sending old men and boys to war. That's always a last ditch effort.
Most of the heavy industry is in Eastern Ukraine, along with 90% of the oil and 80% of the natural gas. The Russians are now in control of all of that. So they were fighting the Ukrainian Army and trying to preserve all that infrastructure at the same time.
For all intents and purposes the Russians have annexed Eastern Ukraine and will never give it up.
In the south the Russians are just 75 miles from Odesa. If Odesa falls whats left of Ukraine will be completely cut off from the Black Sea. The Russians will probably take Odesa to protect Crimea.
Sanlimar is right. All hell will probably break out this summer when better weather conditions arrive. The Russians probably don't care about Kyiv but will probably lay siege to it to destroy the Zelensky government.
The Russians probably don't care much about territory west of Kyiv/Odesa as it is all agriculture. The real money is in eastern Ukraine. The Russians will probably stop when they take enough territory that bombs can't be lobbed into Russia.