Conference call will be a time share sales pitch. Might be a hoot
Trigger hit. I’m in. SP3170 that is. Buy puke buy
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Got in just before the news. Lol
Ripcord pulled.
All 3 of our master threads converging. This is a political inflection point too.
spy is dropping but airline stocks are starting to tick up?
thanks kanye very cool
edit nm they just needed to catch up.
Google, Microsoft, Boeing and Amazon.
Bane of my existence rn
fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.
not a good look.
I have a feeling theres gonna be a few train delays today from people throwing themselves on the tracks
so go look up the spy for 2018. dip #2, in december was from 279 to 234.
why did the market dip 17% in december? because earnings were shite. totally organic, just one of those things. 17% because of something that everyone expects to happen now and again.
now. the spy peaked at 338 this month. right now its at 312.
thats 7%. so the market lost 17% because of The Usual Business. we just shed 7% because of a literal plague thats completely shut down the 2nd largest economy on the planet and hamstrung the most beating heart of our economy; the tech industry, who offshored virtually all our production to the economy that just got shut down in its tracks.
so why would it stop at 7%?
look at the dips. compare the shapes of the 3 dips. the first two dips have a lot in common. the third should, by logic, have a lot in common with the other two. because patterns.
heres the spy in late 2018:
2018-11-28 274.579987
2018-11-29 273.980011
2018-11-30 275.649994
2018-12-03 279.299988
2018-12-04 270.25
2018-12-06 269.839996
2018-12-07 263.570007
2018-12-10 264.070007
2018-12-11 264.130005
2018-12-12 265.459991
2018-12-13 265.369995
2018-12-14 260.470001
2018-12-17 255.360001
2018-12-18 255.080002
2018-12-19 251.259995
2018-12-20 247.169998
2018-12-21 240.699997
2018-12-24 234.339996
2018-12-26 246.179993
2018-12-27 248.070007
2018-12-28 247.75
2018-12-31 249.919998
heres the peak:
2018-12-03 279.299988
heres where it lost 7% off peak:
2018-12-06 269.839996
edit thats wrong its actually here:
2018-12-14 260.470001
but lets move on.
we are 2 days into this and we lost 7%'ish 3 days into the dec 2018 crash. that matches up. again, patterns matter.
so you buy tomorrow, lets see how that worked out in 2018:
2018-12-17 255.360001
a week later:
2018-12-24 234.339996
thats another 20 points. thats the other 10% of the crash basically.
if you cant provide a good reason for this current crash to somehow be less than 50% as bad as the december crash, you're buying securities at 10% of their predicted market value in 2 weeks.
scenario b) you buy them and the other half of the crash doesnt materialize. you got lucky. seems like a dangerous way to invest where the only plausible profitability come from getting lucky. obviously it could work tho.
but im guessing two things, based on math, patterns, and history:
1) we get another solid 10% of grief over the next 3 weeks.
2) vix hits mid 30s (questionable) and spy drops to 280 (much less questionable). at LEAST.
bonus prediction:
honestly i doubt this is even the correction. i think this is nothing but coronavirus impacting supply chain and freaking people the fuck out. i think the correction comes if trump loses in november and i think it comes within a year after that if he doesnt.
also please read this in ryan goslings voice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbiDrzTd8fE
also apologies again for not unfucking some minor math points (day job / distractions) but hopefully my point is clear.
Capiche. But Corona isnt gonna change in 3 weeks, itll only get worse, right? More infected ppl, more deaths worldwide.
So who says this doesnt spiral out even more after the 10%?
So until then, shorting these things and the options market is the way to go?
VIX looks like free money right about now
the big problem i see with vix is the spread but maybe im just not doing it right, im actually more comfortable with puts on spy right now because the gap is like 2 points so i know i can dump without much slippage if things reverse. with vix im basically betting that my contract expires in the money, otherwise the gap can be like 40% of the ask price.
note that if anyone here says what i just typed is fundamentally wrong, believe them, im just going on personal observation/experience.
but yeah i think this could get a lot worse, because of course we havent really seen a lot of earnings reports directly impacted by china being offline. that shit ramped up like weeks ago. so until we start seeing q1 numbers, its all just ambient noise.
i saw someone say tsla could easily drop to 500 before shit gets back on the rails and honestly it kinda made sense to me.