Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

So, I saw this when I got back last night from Newport,RI. (trip report coming soon), but I kept quiet to avoid influencing the action. A month ago, I thought there was ZERO chance of Newsome getting recalled. Dems outnumber GOP voters by 2-1 in California. But, something weird is happening. Newsome never courted Hispanic voters. And a Majority of Hispanic voters are in favor of getting rid of Newsome. Also, since Trump isn't on the ballot, many Dems will NOT show up to the polls. A recent poll shows that 51% favor him being recalled. But, surveys are one thing and votes are something else. He's in real trouble here, and called in Elizabeth Warren and Pelosi to help. The are branding this a Republican recall effort, even though many Dems support giving him the boot. I would think the real odds are about -130 in favor of Newsome keeping his job AT THIS MOMENT. The odds are trading in favor of Recalling him though, and I think the final odds would be in the neighborhood of -110 of him keeping his job. In the end, I think it will be close, but Druff will be shipping Walter some cash.

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

https://twitter.com/IAmPoliticsGirl/...53124441186304

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Originally Posted by CryptoNinja

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

https://twitter.com/IAmPoliticsGirl/...53124441186304

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I'm actually not a big Larry Elder fan. I actually tried listening to him in the 1990s, and he acted like he had a stick up his ass, so I turned it off pretty quickly. He was no Rush Limbaugh, that's for sure.

Kinda surprising to see him as the GOP frontrunner, but then again it was also surprising to see Ahnold as the frontrunner in 2003.

Still, if you think the average California voter is going to base their vote upon Elder rather than Newsom, you're kidding yourself. The recall is basically asking, "Does Newsom suck too much to continue being governor", and if the answer is yes, most people are voting yes. That's the reality.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by CryptoNinja

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

https://twitter.com/IAmPoliticsGirl/...53124441186304

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I'm actually not a big Larry Elder fan. I actually tried listening to him in the 1990s, and he acted like he had a stick up his ass, so I turned it off pretty quickly. He was no Rush Limbaugh, that's for sure.

Kinda surprising to see him as the GOP frontrunner, but then again it was also surprising to see Ahnold as the frontrunner in 2003.

Still, if you think the average California voter is going to base their vote upon Elder rather than Newsom, you're kidding yourself. The recall is basically asking, "Does Newsom suck too much to continue being governor", and if the answer is yes, most people are voting yes. That's the reality.

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Newsom is trying to prop Elder up as a boogeyman.

The funniest part is that his campaign is instructing the Blue Anon cultists to leave question #2 blank, which there is no strategic reason to do, and makes Elder winning more likely.

I don't think Elder is the guy, and he will likely bleed support the closer it gets. No substance, and even flakes out on his own campaign events.

Realistic non-cultist Dems and Independents are more likely to go Faulconer or Kiley, guys that can hopefully keep the office longer than a year. If Elder wins, it's a stop gap and nothing changes. It is probably that anyway, but the other two guys have a more realistic chance of winning re-election in a general election, even more so against another mediocre California Dem.

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Originally Posted by CryptoNinja

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

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The Dems have a supermajority in both houses. There ain’t much “damage” the governor can do these days. Californians are looking for someone with leadership skills, something Newsom sorely lacks. If the winner of the recall wants to get re-elected, he or she will have to show they can get things done. That means, unfortunately, working with the uber liberal legislative branch. Obstructionism will not be well received.

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by sonatine

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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The new governor will be up for re-election next year. The question will be moot at that point.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by sonatine

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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When did that editorial come out? Before or after the bet?

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Originally Posted by CryptoNinja

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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When did that editorial come out? Before or after the bet?

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After

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by CryptoNinja

When did that editorial come out? Before or after the bet?

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After

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I’d say the bet stands then.

would it change the betting if i told you i got a voice mail last Monday telling me my mail in ballot was sent to my address? meaning my last address in California;

i moved out of Cali over two years ago...

my guess is the current occupant will sell my ballot because he/she needs the cash, real estate prices there are obscene

how many others like mine are in play? my guess a few hundred thousand

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Originally Posted by GrenadaRoger

would it change the betting if i told you i got a voice mail last Monday telling me my mail in ballot was sent to my address? meaning my last address in California;

i moved out of Cali over two years ago...

my guess is the current occupant will sell my ballot because he/she needs the cash, real estate prices there are obscene

how many others like mine are in play? my guess a few hundred thousand

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Where do you find a buyer? How much could they possibly pay? $250? Doesn’t seem worth the risk to me.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by sonatine

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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I didn't think about this, but definitely I don't want constitutionality to play a part in this whole thing.

I want to bet whether Newsom wins the recall election or not, and not figure anything into it which happens after that.

If you are still interested in it on these terms, we can leave it as-is. If this changes it for you, let's just cancel it. Let me know soon obv.

I’ll go along with whatever Walt wants to do.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by sonatine

electing a new governor with like 12% of the vote would have dramatic results.

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An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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Actually, for The NY Times to publish this now tells you that Newsome is worried. Where was this Constitutional argument when Davis was recalled? Clearly Newsome has plans for National office and this will kill them.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

An editorial in the NY Times posits that it is unconstitutional and should be challenged if he loses.

Druff what do you think about our bet if the constitutionality is challenged after the fact? It will only be challenged if he loses so I don’t want to freeroll you.

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I didn't think about this, but definitely I don't want constitutionality to play a part in this whole thing.

I want to bet whether Newsom wins the recall election or not, and not figure anything into it which happens after that.

If you are still interested in it on these terms, we can leave it as-is. If this changes it for you, let's just cancel it. Let me know soon obv.

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I’m fine to leave it as is. The heart of the bet was what the voters of CA would choose. I don’t think it would be fair to cancel now and it would be a bitch move.

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Originally Posted by GrenadaRoger

would it change the betting if i told you i got a voice mail last Monday telling me my mail in ballot was sent to my address? meaning my last address in California;

i moved out of Cali over two years ago...

my guess is the current occupant will sell my ballot because he/she needs the cash, real estate prices there are obscene

how many others like mine are in play? my guess a few hundred thousand

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The risk of selling or buying one out of 10M+ ballots is such that only a complete idiot would do this. If there were a way to find out what happened to your ballot I’d bet you that it is not illegally cast in any manner.

Good topic.

First, note that Druff correctly called +/- 325 the "midpoint" -- I suspect some would erroneously call this the "no vig line." In fact, I believe the true no-vig line on -400/+250 is right about +/- 280, but let's assume that's beyond the scope of this immediate discussion. And I'm perfectly happy using "midpoint" for our purposes.

If you like the No Recall side, don't go running to Predictit to try to beat the -325 that Druff is offering, especially if you don't currently have funds there.

Sure, there are two markets on Predictit essentially mirroring this prop (Newsom to be recalled, and Newsom to be governor on Dec. 31), both at around .72, or -257. (As of this post, there are several max bets of $850 available in both markets at or very near that price.)

But if you're depositing from scratch, looks like you'll gross $330 on your $850 wager -- but then the house takes $33, leaving you with $297. Then when you withdraw your $1,147 (850+297), they whack another 5% ($57) off the total. Bottom line is you're risking $850 to net $240 -- a money line of -354. Compare that to the -400 (original line) and -375 (currently) at BetOnline.

Hey, -325 on No suddenly looks like a bargain!

After all that, what's my take? I agree with Druff that +325 or better on Yes is attractive, and the way to play it. I think Newsom is in more trouble than the current lines indicate. The market seems to agree -- the Yes side has drifted down to +240 at BetOnline since the original post was made here.

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Originally Posted by Alex Aums Analytics

Good topic.

First, note that Druff correctly called +/- 325 the "midpoint" -- I suspect some would erroneously call this the "no vig line." In fact, I believe the true no-vig line on -400/+250 is right about +/- 280, but let's assume that's beyond the scope of this immediate discussion. And I'm perfectly happy using "midpoint" for our purposes.

If you like the No Recall side, don't go running to Predictit to try to beat the -325 that Druff is offering, especially if you don't currently have funds there.

Sure, there are two markets on Predictit essentially mirroring this prop (Newsom to be recalled, and Newsom to be governor on Dec. 31), both at around .72, or -257. (As of this post, there are several max bets of $850 available in both markets at or very near that price.)

But if you're depositing from scratch, looks like you'll gross $330 on your $850 wager -- but then the house takes $33, leaving you with $297. Then when you withdraw your $1,147 (850+297), they whack another 5% ($57) off the total. Bottom line is you're risking $850 to net $240 -- a money line of -354. Compare that to the -400 (original line) and -375 (currently) at BetOnline.

Hey, -325 on No suddenly looks like a bargain!

After all that, what's my take? I agree with Druff that +325 or better on Yes is attractive, and the way to play it. I think Newsom is in more trouble than the current lines indicate. The market seems to agree -- the Yes side has drifted down to +240 at BetOnline since the original post was made here.

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Promising first post.