Help Settle A Wager - Druff?

Pick and Pray is a horse racing tournament format to where players select from races 1-9 at a certain track. They're given a mythical $2 win and $2 place wager with max payout being $42 for win and $22 for place. Loll selections are made prior to the 1st race going off and cannot be changed. Whoever ends up with the most dollar amount at the end of the final race wins.

Experts who play these tournaments claim the correct strategy is to always pick a "bomb" in the final race. The theory is that;

A. If you're in the lead by a decent amount it protects you by "blocking" others from catching up.
B. If you're not in the lead and not doing well, you'll always be in contention by picking a "bomb" and being alive to a long shot in the final race.

So common sense is that since the picks are locked in and it's irrelevant where you pick the bomb. However, it's not a random sequence because we do indeed know that Race 9 is and will be the final race of the tournament.

Couldn't you even be at more of a disadvantage by using this method because you're forcing yourself to pick the longest shot in a certain race?

Thank you

Extra to add.

You do not get to see what anyone has selected until the 1st race has gone off

All picks are locked in and cannot be changed once the 1st race has gone off.



Question 2:

But you can agree that there's a higher percentage that you're drawing dead if your pick chalk in the last versus a long shot right?

How many people are competing in this?

If it's a large number of people, then yes, the correct strategy is to pick longshots, because you're looking to finish first, not just grind out a moderate fake-dollar profit.

It's the same reason you play an otherwise non-optimal video poker strategy in tournaments, because you need to hit a royal to win.

The tournament can be heads up which they provide.

However, most tournaments do have 50-300 players. I am.understanding that picking "value" in these is correct but the correct advantage way is to always in the final race?

Here is a expert book and it states this

Also



However, this is the same person that stated..."I prefer to play long shots in the later races because that's when they always seem to come in."

I'm sure there is plenty info in Super System that is misleading and wrong

If you can't see where others are in the race, and if you have to make all of your selections at the beginning, then it doesn't matter if the long shot is in the first or last race.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

If you can't see where others are in the race, and if you have to make all of your selections at the beginning, then it doesn't matter if the long shot is in the first or last race.

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Which I agree on this note. We can pick races 1st-9th and then mix up the order and have them span out. However, this isn't random because we do know the final race will indeed be the 9th race.

So there isn't any advantage by picking a long shot in the final race in order to "protect" or "always be alive" ?

And yes the picks are locked in at the start and cannot be changed.

Thanks

It's surprising because the person who said those comments is very sharp, but I'm finding it hard to believe true.

I see MORE a disadvantage than advantage because you're forcing yourself to pick a long shot in a specific race. Should your long shot hit the first race you'll always be in contention or cash. However, I do see that it's not a random sequence because indeed we do know Race 9 is the finale.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by King

It's surprising because the person who said those comments is very sharp, but I'm finding it hard to believe true.

I see MORE a disadvantage than advantage because you're forcing yourself to pick a long shot in a specific race. Should your long shot hit the first race you'll always be in contention or cash. However, I do see that it's not a random sequence because indeed we do know Race 9 is the finale.

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Get a room fags

Also, King, did you ever get your golf winnings?

[QUOTE=jsearles22;433480]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by King

It's surprising because the person who said those comments is very sharp, but I'm finding it hard to believe true.

I see MORE a disadvantage than advantage because you're forcing yourself to pick a long shot in a specific race. Should your long shot hit the first race you'll always be in contention or cash. However, I do see that it's not a random sequence because indeed we do know Race 9 is the finale.

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Get a room fags

Also, King, did you ever get your golf winnings?[/QUOTE

No, not sure if Druff was getting my PMs]