MGM has a slot that hasn't hit it's jackpot in almost 20 years

Druff or other Vegas people have you ever played this machine? That seems pretty insane that it isn't hit since that say it is played almost non-stop. I wonder if the NGC has ever opened it up to see if it's faulty.

http://vegasbuzz.com/wp/wp-content/u...lion-share.jpg

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vegas-...9860.html?vp=1

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LAS VEGAS—Forget Britney Spears and Cirque du Soleil. For many gamblers, the hottest attraction in Sin City is an outdated three-reel slot machine that hasn't produced a jackpot in nearly two decades.

It is called the Lion's Share, and in this city with no shortage of losing bets, the 20-year-old slot has attracted a legion of ever-hopeful devotees on the floor of the MGM Grand, the Strip's second-biggest casino.

The machine's miserly track record may, paradoxically, make it the rarest of all Vegas treats: A decent bet. A generation of players has already lost money on it, helping more than double the progressive jackpot to an improbable $2.3 million.

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Even by the standards of slot enthusiasts—known to be an obsessive and superstitious lot—the Lion's Share has a devoted following. The machine has its own Twitter account, Facebook profile, fan websites and message boards. Each sight of one lion, which pays $6 on a $3 bet, is considered breaking news. The machine is the oldest three-reeled slot in the property and has the highest level of "occupancy," or daily time played, of all 1,900 of the casino's machines, said Justin Andrews, the MGM's executive director of slots.

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If Micon is still grinding slots he should get there stat.

Whoever hits the progressive will get to keep the machine as well.

Obviously this guy wasn't working it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcZHSGyos6g

Hard to believe the progressive is only 2.237M after not paying for 20 years. It must make quite a few other big payouts, just not the BIG one.

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Originally Posted by Hockey Guy

Hard to believe the progressive is only 2.237M after not paying for 20 years. It must make quite a few other big payouts, just not the BIG one.

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From what I've read on the internet, it hits two lion symbols for $10K on a somewhat regular basis.

I hadn't heard of this machine. Pretty interesting. 20 years sounds like a long time, but in this instance isn't not that crazy. Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that the math is set up so that the progressive jackpot is hit about every 5 years, maybe a little less.

The average Craps turn lasts 8 rolls. But everyone who's played craps a few times can remember a session when they rolled 32+ times. That's just as unlikely as this machine not hitting in 20 years.

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Originally Posted by DirtyB

I hadn't heard of this machine. Pretty interesting. 20 years sounds like a long time, but in this instance isn't not that crazy. Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that the math is set up so that the progressive jackpot is hit about every 5 years, maybe a little less.

The average Craps turn lasts 8 rolls. But everyone who's played craps a few times can remember a session when they rolled 32+ times. That's just as unlikely as this machine not hitting in 20 years.

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No, because those are the same multiple of the mean, but not the same number of standard deviations above the mean.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by DirtyB

I hadn't heard of this machine. Pretty interesting. 20 years sounds like a long time, but in this instance isn't not that crazy. Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that the math is set up so that the progressive jackpot is hit about every 5 years, maybe a little less.

The average Craps turn lasts 8 rolls. But everyone who's played craps a few times can remember a session when they rolled 32+ times. That's just as unlikely as this machine not hitting in 20 years.

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No, because those are the same multiple of the mean, but not the same number of standard deviations above the mean.

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Originally Posted by ThreeBet

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

No, because those are the same multiple of the mean, but not the same number of standard deviations above the mean.

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Hmmm?

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by DirtyB

I hadn't heard of this machine. Pretty interesting. 20 years sounds like a long time, but in this instance isn't not that crazy. Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that the math is set up so that the progressive jackpot is hit about every 5 years, maybe a little less.

The average Craps turn lasts 8 rolls. But everyone who's played craps a few times can remember a session when they rolled 32+ times. That's just as unlikely as this machine not hitting in 20 years.

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No, because those are the same multiple of the mean, but not the same number of standard deviations above the mean.

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I'm ballparking, but it seems like both situations would have similar, and large, standard deviations.

Due to hit obv. Already practicing my triple lion dance.

It's kind of crazy when you think about it to go nearly 20 years for it not to hit.

You have to wonder what the plan was when they made this machine as far as hitting that jackpot goes since it was created in an era where technology was starting to take off but still only a tiny percent of what it has become today.

I've played slot machines for probably 15 minutes in my life so I have no idea how they are programmed. Hypothetically, can it be a case where a machine hadn't hit for a long time, became a bit of a local draw before going viral, and now is a larger cash cow and attraction? As long as it's giving out enough smaller jackpots, and whatever is in accordance with Nevada gaming hold percentages, does it need to be random by law?

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Originally Posted by DirtyB

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

No, because those are the same multiple of the mean, but not the same number of standard deviations above the mean.

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I'm ballparking, but it seems like both situations would have similar, and large, standard deviations.

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Agree both should have large standard deviations. The s.d. of the slot machine can be calculated from the software, no? Whereas the s.d. of craps has been calculated. It's only my intuition, but I think a slot not hitting for 20 years should be more of an outlier.

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Originally Posted by BCR

I've played slot machines for probably 15 minutes in my life so I have no idea how they are programmed. Hypothetically, can it be a case where a machine hadn't hit for a long time, became a bit of a local draw before going viral, and now is a larger cash cow and attraction? As long as it's giving out enough smaller jackpots, and whatever is in accordance with Nevada gaming hold percentages, does it need to be random by law?

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I think dirtyb would know this better than me but I'm pretty sure they can't advertise a prize that can't be won. I'm also pretty sure it has to be random. For machines that guarantee the jackpot to be hit before reaching a certain amount, they can use some kind of squashing function like the hyperbolic tangent to slowly improve the probability of winning while keeping it random.

I'll definitely be checking this out when I'm there in April.

I also gotta check out that horse racing game, the one shown at the beginning of the video, at the MGM too. I keep meaning to everytime I'm in Vegas but I keep forgetting.

I have played this.

You walk almost to the back of MGM and hang a left it is across from a Chinese restaurant and faces the high limit room if I remember right. You have to search it out because it doesn't stand out. Also it only hand pays so if you win something and want to cash out you have to call an attendant.

There is a big thread about it on VegasMessageBoard I also have pics of it I will see if I can find them.