Quote:
Originally Posted by
JACKDANIELS
discussion on herd immunity was interesting, based on what we have seen in europe seems like the mortality rate drastically decreases after the initial wave
in uk we have had 370k confirmed cases with 41k deaths
100k of those confirmed cases were the last 3 months with only 2k deaths
although the virus obviously isnt going away any time soon, considering most people who get infected wont have significant symptoms or a positive test the actual mortality rate must be under 1%
lets say only 10% of people who get the virus end up with symptoms and get tested then mortality rate could be as low as 0.2%
no idea if herd immunity could be a factor in the reduced mortality rate but despite increased numbers of confirmed cases as we come out of lockdown very few people are dying in europe of this now
Estimates for herd immunity have been between 20-90%. It's not really a constant number outside of vaccination strategies. In the wild how people act and how different they are matters a lot. Basically more people are willing to do, the smaller the number to achieve effective herd immunity.
It's obv contagious enough to find "soft" targets fast and then it naturally starts slowing down. There are huge differences in ppl how susceptible they are and how likely they are to spread it. Most new information supports 20% and almost everyone has written of 90%.
People have natural working immune responses and cross immunity from other earlier corona strains.
The loss of antibodies after few months likely doesn't matter at all. As long as this behaves like some other strains of flu, your body still stores the blueprints for producing relevant antibodies. Though there are the other if's on how this behaves, like mutations and how we haven't exactly eradicated flu.
I think i mentioned elsewhere but the whole world didn't shut down because they knew with 20-20 vision how this was going to play out. Severity of this was in the lower half of possible out comes.