Originally Posted by
Alex Aums Analytics
Good topic.
First, note that Druff correctly called +/- 325 the "midpoint" -- I suspect some would erroneously call this the "no vig line." In fact, I believe the true no-vig line on -400/+250 is right about +/- 280, but let's assume that's beyond the scope of this immediate discussion. And I'm perfectly happy using "midpoint" for our purposes.
If you like the No Recall side, don't go running to Predictit to try to beat the -325 that Druff is offering, especially if you don't currently have funds there.
Sure, there are two markets on Predictit essentially mirroring this prop (Newsom to be recalled, and Newsom to be governor on Dec. 31), both at around .72, or -257. (As of this post, there are several max bets of $850 available in both markets at or very near that price.)
But if you're depositing from scratch, looks like you'll gross $330 on your $850 wager -- but then the house takes $33, leaving you with $297. Then when you withdraw your $1,147 (850+297), they whack another 5% ($57) off the total. Bottom line is you're risking $850 to net $240 -- a money line of -354. Compare that to the -400 (original line) and -375 (currently) at BetOnline.
Hey, -325 on No suddenly looks like a bargain!
After all that, what's my take? I agree with Druff that +325 or better on Yes is attractive, and the way to play it. I think Newsom is in more trouble than the current lines indicate. The market seems to agree -- the Yes side has drifted down to +240 at BetOnline since the original post was made here.