Modern limit holdem hand -- playing back against check-behinds heads up

In the 2000s, you very rarely saw check-behinds on the flop in limit holdem by the preflop raiser, in a heads up pot.

The conventional wisdom of the day was always to c-bet a heads-up pot, because you were in position and could easily get your opponent to fold, even if you missed.

The game then evolved, and ranges became applied in limit holdem more than they were before.

This caused people to realize that c-betting a flop which was fairly likely to hit a calling BB hand was a mistake, if you didn't have a piece of it but might want to get to showdown.

Here's a good example:

You're on the button with Ad4h, and raise. The BB calls. Nobody else is in the hand.

Flop: 7c8c9d

This obviously completely missed your hand, but are you necessarily behind? Even a monster draw like Jc6c, while a favorite against you, still needs to hit in order to beat you. Since limit holdem is a game of fixed bets, your opponent cannot put that much pressure on postflop, and thus you simply want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

This is where you check behind, and the re-evaluate the turn and river. If you improve, or if the board bricks out, you call down (or possibly even raise, if you improve enough).

The downside here is that it makes it fairly obvious that you missed, so you're almost playing face up poker. Players in position who hit a very wet board are likely to bet their hand in limit holdem, both for value and to charge all the draws chasing them. A lack of a bet indicates, "I have a hand I want to see through, but isn't very good."

Still, the upside is much higher than the downside, and thus you see far more checking back at modern middle and upper stakes limit holdem games than you did in the past.

But what if you have hit the flop in the BB, and your opponent in late position checks back against you? What's the right move? I'll discuss an interesting hand I played in the next post.

In general, if your opponent checks behind on the flop on a wet board, you know that he very likely missed but wants to see showdown. In some cases, he doesn't have a showdownable hand, but has some kind of weak draw he'd like to see for free.

Anyway, since you will usually get called if your opponent still thinks his ace high is good, you need to factor that in.

Even if you have somewhat of a draw, you might not want to fire a blank card on the turn. You're simply spewing. Only fire the turn if you likely have the best hand (you hit the flop and have better showdown value than ace high, or you improved on the turn), or if a scare card hits which can force A high to fold.

For example, let's go back to the 7c8c9d flop, but say you have Qh4h in the BB, which obviously missed badly.

If the button checks back that board, and then 6s hits, you probably want to fire. That is a horrible turn for A high, and they will probably let it go. If they don't, you can check/fold the river.

However, if 2h hits, that's a complete blank, and you will almost surely get called if you fire the turn. So don't, as tempting as it might be. In fact, even if you hold a hand with some kind of decent but not huge draw, you probably still want to check, because betting is just spewing (unless it's also a scare card for A high).

What if 4d hits, giving you bottom pair? Yes, you should fire that, and also bet any non-scare river. You might very well get called by A high and win a surprisingly decent pot.

What if an A or K hits? Check/fold. You can't win 'em all, and you have both nowhere to go, and your opponent probably hit it.



But what about the scare cards on the turn and/or river? Here's a hand I played today at an online 30-60 limit holdem game, 5 handed.

I had 7c6c in BB. Opponent raised button, I called.

Flop 9s8s6d.

I checked, he checked. (I actually made a mistake here, as I should have bet out. That's what you should typically do when you hit a board like this from the BB, in order to thwart the likely check-behind, but I went for the check-raise, and he smartly didn't bet.)

Turn 9c. Okay, at least it was a very safe turn card. I bet, he called.

River Ah. Uh oh!

Obviously there was a good chance this hit him. So did I decide to do a check/call?

No. Why? Because of the second 9. I was representing I had the 9 (or better), so he couldn't be too confident the ace was good. He'd obviously not fold an ace, but he likely would not raise, given the board and my action. He thought for a few seconds, then called.

I was expecting to see him turn over some Ace-rag hand, but instead he mucked, and I won!

So what did he have? 55

Now, you can say that was incredibly lucky for me, that I bet into one of the few non-ace hands with showdown value. So why did I bet?

Good players -- and sometimes even bad ones -- HATE laying down hands on drawy boards which didn't get there. This is a spot where you will get some calls from K and even Q high, and of course low pocket pairs as well.

More importantly, his check-back on the flop indicated he likely missed it, but wanted a showdown. This means if he didn't have the ace, there was a decent chance he was calling with worse than what I held (bottom pair, technically 2 pair if you count the 9s on the board).

But what if he did have the ace? He was definitely going to bet there. So checking does you no good. He won't check back with an ace in his hand, and yet he won't raise your bet into the ace. And you can't check/fold. So either way you're losing one bet if he hit the ace, and you're potentially gaining a bet if he has a hand worse than you, but one he thinks can win at showdown.

You don't even have to worry about being outkicked here by him having a 6, since the board is paired, and there's an ace on the board.

This is one of these spots where it feels like you need to check/call, but you actually need to value bet.

I wish you would do more of these.
I started out playing 10-20 limit many years ago. I didn't know much but I was winning because the other players were so bad. At my local card room they occasionally try to start a 15-30 game. I always volunteer to start it but it never gets going.
BTW, what would you buy in for in 30-60? I used to buy in for $500 in 10-20. In the wild 15-30 games at Speaking Rock (Reeking Sock) in El Paso I would buy in for $800 I think. I would buy in for $1000 if I jumped up to 20-40.
There was a lot of drug money being laundered in that game, and the drug people didn't mind if a few of us straight and narrow players took a little of it off the table by the end of the night.