Created this thread for people to post bets they're making on the election. I'll post my trades here and post stuff related to election betting so I'm not cluttering the politics thread.
I now have a little over $40k wagered on this election and am pretty close to maxed out. It's the largest wager I've ever made on a single event (second largest was betting Obama in the 2012 election). These prices represent a truly once in a decade betting opportunity. Some of this was money that I ran up during the primaries betting on Biden as a dog, and some of it is new money I deposited since then. In general I'm a "buy and wait until expiration" kinda guy. I'm not going to sell Minnesota for 76 cents just because I bought at 62. There's still 24 cents on the table and shares are very undervalued. I'm also not hedging very much this year, there's just too much value on the other side.
Quick primer on how PredictIt works if you're not familiar:
A contract will trade between 1 and 99 cents. This correlates to the odds that traders are giving to a particular event. If it happens, it resolves to $1. If it doesn't happen it resoles to $0. Let's say Biden is trading at 65 cents to win the election. So you can buy "YES" shares for 65 cents. That means there's somebody on the other side buying "NO" shares for 35 cents. Ok, now $1 is locked up. If Biden wins, the holder of YES shares gets the $1. If Biden does't win, the holder of the NO shares gets the $1. Simple enough.
Rule #1 of PredictIt: Stop buying YES shares. You can almost always buy NO shares of the other guy for cheaper and it's the same exact thing. For instance, right now Biden is trading at 66 cents and Trump is trading at 39 cents. Because people seem to put less than 5 minutes into researching how the site works, Biden betters tend to just buy Biden for 66 cents and Trump betters tend to buy Trump for 39 cents. Both of these people are making mistakes. If you want to bet on Trump you should buy "NO" Biden shares for 34 cents. If you want to bet on Biden you should buy "NO" Trump shares for 61 cents. In both cases you're saving 5 cents to get the same exact thing (actually slightly better because you get the field as well in case Biden/Trump die or drop out). There's an $850 cap, so if you bought $850 worth of NO shares, then you can go and start buying $850 worth of YES shares if you think its a good value. But always max out your NO shares when it's cheaper to do so (which it almost always is).
Furthermore, stop just putting in your bids at whatever the ask is. Look at the order book and then move your cursor over and lower your bid by a penny or whatever it is and then place your order. The market is going to wiggle around a little, stop overpaying for no reason. The exceptions are if it looks like the price is about to move up. If you've bought stocks before, this is like putting in a limit order instead of doing a market order.
I'll also quickly explain how buying "NO" shares of multiple people in a linked market works since it seems to confuse the hell out of people at first. I had to explain this to OSA about five times before he understood. Also, the numbers are going to be slightly off because of rake. I'm going to ignore rake for purposes of this example because it'll just confuse newbies more.
Candidate A is trading at 65 cents
Candidate B is trading at 30 cents
Candidate C is trading at 10 cents
You want to buy candidate A, so what should you do? Don't buy candidate A for 65 cents like a moop. Buy "NO" shares of candidate B. This will cost you 70 cents. Now go buy "NO" shares of candidate C. What happens when you buy the NO shares of candidate C? You might expect 90 more cents to be locked up, but actually that's not what happens because the market is linked. What happens in you get 10 cents released to you. So now you have 60 cents locked up and you have a NO share of B and a NO share of C. This means if B OR C wins, you will lose your 60 cents. You're essentially creating a parlay. That's why you'll see me buying NO shares of a guy who's trading for a penny. Even though the guy buying is getting 99 to 1, I'm not actually putting up 99 cents to his one penny. I'm actually receiving a penny for every NO share I buy.
Now on to a rundown of my wagers with a plop voting guide commentary.
I'll start with the ones I bet with my sportsbook. I have a $300 max bet on there, hence the numbers. Obviously I can't trade in and out of these, which I'm fine with. I'm happy with the price I got on everything. And yes I got Trump to not be reelected at +175. That was made during the primaries. These are done on credit so I didn't have to tie money up for it. The state bets were made several weeks ago, before the president got the Rona. No idea who will win Texas or Ohio, but I'm happy to bet it at +180 and +325.
General Election:
I have a private bet that was made somewhat recently where I bet on Biden to win the electoral college. It's my $16,775 to win $9,500. I also have a private bet with one of PFA's oldest members (no, not splitthis), my $1k to win $500. Below are my predictit wagers on it. Yes I bought Biden at an average of 34 cents. I actually bought some shares for 5 cents (!) in February, but unfortunately not that many. I had money tied up in other markets at the time and I didn't have a ton of money on the site then.
Popular Vote:
I still have some trading left to do in this market. Not exactly sure where I'll end up, but here's where I am now. Some of these shares are stale and some were bought more recently. If you're confused by the last screenshot, look at the "risk" column. That will be my net profit (after rake) if that contract resolves to yes. So I'm profiting if it's Dems by 6-9% or Dems by 10.5%+. I'm losing a small amount if it's Dems 3-6% or Dems 9-10.5%. I'm losing if it's GOP anything or Dems by less than 3%. I'm planning on picking up No shares on Dems 3%-4.5% and finishing out my buying of No GOP shares so I have 500 in every band (this will reduce my total investment in this market by a bit).
Electoral Vote margin of victory:
I'm kinda all over the place in this one. I was long Dems 60-149, but I really hate my 60-99 band now, and I've started selling some of that off for a small loss. I've since started initiating a long position on a Dem blow-out, Dems +280. This is my biggest long shot bet. It's basically a cheaper way of buying Texas. It requires Biden scooping Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia. This is obviously a gamble, but I think it's a good bet because if you simulate the election, the tails are pretty fat for Biden. The general consensus is that the polls will tighten by a couple points. The markets are pricing as if this is going to happen. However it's just as likely to think that the polls will move a couple points in the other direction, which is where scooping this looks much more likely. There's reason to think this will happen. Trump will see that he's about to lose. He'll throw up a risky Hail Mary to try to win. It'll backfire and the margin will expand even further. I'm really not risking that much. The bulk of my risk is in Dem 150 to 279. I will lose $430 if that happens. If Dem 280+ happens, I will win $4,596 (after rake). This bet is not for those with a weak stomach. If you have a weak stomach, see Nevada, Minnesota, or New Hampshire for a no-stress bet.
Texas:
This is basically a turnout market bet. Beto lost by 2.5%. Texas has likely swung a couple points further to the left since then. It'll be a close one. Happy to buy at good odds, but this is a market I will consider trading out of before election day. Yes I know, it's a liberal pipe dream. "Tilt R".
Florida:
Florida won't even be particularly close this year. Trump has lost the senior vote. About a billion Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Gillum was a trash candidate in 2018. Trump is doing better with Cubans compared to 2016, but it won't be enough. Not quite "Safe D", but heavily "Lean D"
Pennsylvania:
PA is the most important state this year. If you don't think "Scranton Joe" will outperform "Crooked Hillary" by 1% in PA, I don't know what to tell you. Biden polling really well in the Midwest in general. Yes I know, the polls are wrong and Trump will rig the election. I already know all that. I am maxed out in this state. Safe D.
Minnesota:
File this under "Free money". It's fiscally irresponsible to have anything in a zero interest savings account when you can park your money here for a free 30% ROI in one month. My only regret is not maxing out at 62 cents. Safe D.
Wisconsin:
At the beginning of the year I thought Trump had a good shot here. i was wide-eyed and innocent back then. I maxed out during the riots. Safe D.
Arizona:
"bUt aRiZoNa iS a ReD sTaTe!". Alright, good luck betting that way. It'll have one of the biggest swings between 2016 and 2020. Having said that, I would buy Florida before I would buy Arizona or NC. FL is the best value of the 3. This market has been fluctuating quite a bit and I may pick up a few more shares here. Lean D.
TO BE CONTINUED SINCE I CAN ONLY POST 17 IMAGES IN A SINGLE POST...
10-14-2020, 12:44 PM
PLOL
Ohio:
It's an absolute garbage state filled with garbage people. I don't know who will win here, but buying Biden at 34 was good value. Maxed out on the NO shares but didn't buy any of the more expensive "yes" shares, and I don't plan on it. I may sell off the NO shares if he gets close to 50 again depending on what data comes out. Coin flip.
North Carolina:
Biden is a decent enough favorite. I'm happy to buy at evenish odds. I'd max out Florida first though. Lean D. Btw, stay away from the senate race here. Way too much drama and hard to say how voters will react to an old fashioned sexting scandal in a polarized election in a swing state.
New Hampshire:
I hate myself when I look at this market. I bought Dems as an underdog in New Hampshire in February, but only 25 shares. I should've maxed but I just didn't have the capital needed on the site at the time. Check out the purchase dates. Safe D.
Nevada:
I talked with Brandon and he knocked on some doors for me. He assured me Nevada is "Safe D" this cycle. I don't have a ton here because I'm okay taking on higher risk higher reward elsewhere, but if you want to park some cash here this is as good a market as any to do it.
Iowa:
I'm long Trump here. Between Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio this will be the most difficult for Biden to win (all 3 of these states having been trading at the same price). Only take this state as a hedge play. It's not worth it for anything else and I may trade out of it myself for a small profit. Tilt R.
South Carolina Senate:
This is a senate race I've been chirping about recently. The Democrat went up to 40% this week. Great value betting on Lindsey Graham here and it's anti-correlated to my other bets so it represents a hedge. But I think there's value in it as a standalone play too, not just as a hedge. I know the polling is close, but Lindsey will trail Trump by like 5 points at most. Trump will win SC by over 7 points. Harrison is raising a fuckton of money, but there's a law of diminishing returns that kicks in after a while. Lindsey's price shot back up past couple days, but wait and see if you can get some cheap shares of him again. It's been bouncing around. And keep your eye on the Siena SC poll dropping tomorrow to see if it changes anything. Lindsey should be at 75%-80% here. Lean R.
Montana Senate:
Another hedge play where I think the Republican is undervalued. Bullock is getting every major endorsement including from papers that backed Daines last cycle, but I don't think anybody gives a shit about that anymore. It's a heavily red state and people are going to vote down ballot. Possible I trade out of this for a profit depending on how it bounces around. Tilt R.
Illinois-13 House:
It's a silly sweat bet in one of the only competitive house races in my home state. I had a few hundred shares but sold half at a profit. May sell a few more but want to keep a small fun sweat. It's not a race I'm recommending wagering. Unrated.
State with smallest MoV:
I'm a little underwater here and I don't love my position, but it's a small play. I don't like my North Carolina shares. I'd rather have Ohio, Texas, or Georgia. The dumb money is on Florida. Right now I'm breaking even if it's Texas or Georgia. Making money if it's Ohio or North Carolina. And losing money if it's anything else. I may trade this market more, but more likely I'll just abandon it because it's too much work.
When will Florida be called:
I could write pages about this play, but I'm exhausted. Florida will be called the night of the election and it has nothing to do with what I think the MoV in Florida. It has to do with election laws in Florida for when votes are counted. The mail-in votes we'll know on election night. In Pennsylvania the opposite is true. We won't know the mail-in vote for days due to when they start counting. If the final MoV is 3% in both Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida will get called right away and Penn will take several days. There's also a market for when PA will be called and I'd recommend buying after November 4th there. In Florida, buy shares for on November 4th. I may pick up more shares here though i'm running out of cash, it's great value.
I also threw $2,500 on Bovada to check out the odds and then when I saw the odds they were all pretty left leaning compared to PredictIt. Sad! I threw some money on Biden to win the electoral college at -200, Florida at -145, and PA at -250. And I bet Trump to win Iowa at -150. Whatever.
Have some of the “Blake bet” still on...it’s “will the winner of the popular vote win the electoral college”...
Basically a backdoor bet on trump...
Got one slug at 23, I think and another at 26-27...Think I got those in June so basically was getting better than 3:1 on trump to win...think that bet had tremendous value...either of these guys at that price this summer was worth it...
Sold off the 23s at 30 after the first debate...still have the 26-27s...
Not too enthusiastic about my chances now but still feel good about the odds I got this summer..
10-14-2020, 01:02 PM
sonatine
can i get a line on bannon planting child pornography on a laptop and then leaking it as hunter bidens or nah?
10-14-2020, 01:05 PM
PLOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
can i get a line on bannon planting child pornography on a laptop and then leaking it as hunter bidens or nah?
That's already baked in to the market
10-14-2020, 01:17 PM
Daly
Love it. Well thought out and reasoned.
Be careful in Florida. I could easily see a Trump win from what I’ve seen.
10-14-2020, 01:56 PM
PLOL
1 Attachment(s)
Somebody got high as hell and bought 18,800 shares of the Green party to win the presidency in 2024, buying as high as 10 cents.
This isn't me, btw. I'm not involved in 2024 yet. It's way too early for me to handicap 2024, but pretty sure if my options are Nikki Haley (or whoever) vs Biden, I'm going to want to own shares in the person who isn't over 80 years old. Stay tuned.
I have a number of casual Biden bets made thru my Sportsbook over the months.
Watching how a pro works & thinks is very very interesting and entertaining. It’s a whole other world. One that I have no intention of occupying personally cause I don’t have the chops.
I have nothing to offer the thread but know that I will read every word.
10-14-2020, 06:26 PM
Dan Druff
Thank you for making this thread and sharing your knowledge with the community.
In order to keep it from being ruined, I am making the following rules for this thread:
1) No trolling
2) No junk posts
3) No political debating unless it's relevant to the value of betting. But these must be well-reasoned and quality, not just obnoxious memes or one-liners.
I can confirm that PLOL is very good at political betting, and puts a lot of time into following the races and the likely edges. You should follow this closely.
10-14-2020, 06:41 PM
OSA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thank you for making this thread and sharing your knowledge with the community.
In order to keep it from being ruined, I am making the following rules for this thread:
1) No trolling
2) No junk posts
3) No political debating unless it's relevant to the value of betting. But these must be well-reasoned and quality, not just obnoxious memes or one-liners.
I can confirm that PLOL is very good at political betting, and puts a lot of time into following the races and the likely edges. You should follow this closely.
Good Rules. Maybe all of you that exercise your straight privilege on a daily basis can try to empathize and find it to donate 1% of winnings to OSA Twink Foundation. Our mission is to "strengthen the capacity of twinks in the United States and throughout the world to meet the challenges of twink global interdependence."
TIA
10-14-2020, 07:28 PM
Walter Sobchak
Question about the "What day will Florida be called" bet. Is the cutoff midnight? Because I think Florida will be called quickly too but I could see it being after midnight on election night.
10-14-2020, 07:34 PM
PLOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Question about the "What day will Florida be called" bet. Is the cutoff midnight? Because I think Florida will be called quickly too but I could see it being after midnight on election night.
That's correct, Fox and CNN both have to call it before midnight. For comparison, Florida got called at 10:50pm on election night in 2016, and the final MoV was only 1.2%.
10-14-2020, 08:40 PM
Sanlmar
Smart yet snarky analysis.
I like that
10-15-2020, 08:28 AM
PLOL
Some more info on my bet that Florida will be called on November 3rd. I wish I could take credit for that pick, but I just blatantly plagiarized it from Star Spangled Gamblers. They're like the PFA of the political betting community. Listen to the pick and analysis on their podcast here. Skip to 37:25 https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...ber-surprises/
I listened to the podcast as soon as it came out at like 1am on the 14th and immediately bought at 61 cents. In the morning I checked and it had moved up a few cents. Today I'm looking and it's all the way up to 70 cents. Still should be a good value. Here's the cliffs:
* Florida is one of the few states that counts mail-in ballots as they come in. Ballots that are being received now are being counted now.
* By Florida statute all of the mail-in ballots that have been received by election day have to be reported by 7pm on election night.
* Around 90% of the vote count will be in by 9pm. 98% of the votes are in by 10pm.
* Stop having Florida flashbacks
Edit: Hitting 73% now. This is why when you get information early you need to act quickly and aggressively.
10-15-2020, 09:31 AM
PLOL
1 Attachment(s)
7 point upswing for Lindsey Graham in the last 30 minutes. A Siena/Upshot poll just dropped showing Graham up 6 and Trump up 8 in SC. This is the highest quality poll of South Carolina that we've had all year. Lindsey looking very comfortable now and I will likely be holding this to expiration now. Look to Montana senate next. That one will be closer.
I’m just curious do you think either’s gaffes or scandals that potentially come out between now and election will have any impact? We figure that’s all baked in as well, correct(barring either dropping dead)?
10-15-2020, 10:30 AM
PLOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmndkutr
I’m just curious do you think either’s gaffes or scandals that potentially come out between now and election will have any impact? We figure that’s all baked in as well, correct(barring either dropping dead)?
Bcause the undecided % is much lower this year, gaffes and scandals will have a much lower impact compared to normal (on either side). In 2016 the undecided % was relatively high. This cycle people have made up their mind. We're in a very partisan environment and a gaffe or scandal won't change many minds.
Edit: To put it another way, there's been extremely low volatility in polling this year and I would expect it to stay that way.
10-17-2020, 07:09 AM
PLOL
Lol Doug is a huge grifter. He's like an 80% favorite trying to get even odds lol
