David "ODB" Baker offering to "reverse sell" pieces of WSOP events at 1.4 markup
Yes, I said reverse sell.
David Baker (again, the older one known as "ODB") was skeptical of many claiming that "no one" can beat 40% markup in the WSOP, presumably in response to this piece by Andrew Barber, which criticized people selling pieces at 20% or higher markup.
I am not sure if David is selling pieces or if he's backed (I've heard rumors that he's backed), but that's not really important here.
David is so sure of his skill that he is offering to reverse sell pieces at 40% markup, provided that the events are $4,999 or lower buyin (which in reality is $3k or lower).
That is, you would be betting AGAINST him cashing.
So let's say his total cost of entry in these events is $25,000.
If you wanted to reverse-buy 10% of him, you would be getting a "credit" of $3500 to start off. That is, first you'd get $2500 because that's 10% of $25,000. Then you'd mark up that number by 1.4 times, making it $3500.
Then for every amount David cashes in those events, you would SUBTRACT 10% of whatever his cash amount from your running total.
If the total finishes positive, he owes you.
If the total finishes negative, you owe him.
For example:
#1) David breaks even in these events, cashing $25,000. That means you subtract $2500 from your starting $3500, and you profited $1000.
#2) David cashes 0 events and bricks in embarrassing fashion. You make $3500, the absolute maximum possible here.
#3) David cashes $40,000. You subtract $4000 from your starting $3500, and you are down $500 to him.
#4) David luckboxes a big field event and cashes for $500,000 total. You subtract $50,000 from your starting $3500, and you are down $46,500 to him!
So example #4 is the big problem here. You can possibly owe him mid-5-figures (maybe even low 6 figures) if he wins one of these big field events, yet your upside is a maximum of $3500 -- and that's only if you buy 10% of him! If you buy something like 30%, it could really be a disaster if he hits.
Therefore, you need really deep pockets to do this, which is why I doubt he will get many takers.
You might say, "Well, why not just buy 1% and minimize your exposure?" Well, sure, but then you're going to make a few hundred dollars in the best case, and it's really not worth doing.
It's not clear what is the minimum David will reverse-sell.
So this is an interesting gimmick meant to prop up David's ego and perhaps make you intimidated by him at the table, but in reality he probably knows that he won't get many (or any) takers.
For full disclosure, I don't get along with David Baker. We had this incident in 2014, and basically the two of us haven't liked one another since 2007.
However, I will state that this is a personality-clash thing, and not related to anything involving money or any other major occurrence.
Despite my issues with David, I will state that I believe him to be honest when it comes to money matters (so I highly doubt this is something shady), and I also believe that he's a good poker player. I don't think he can beat the $3k-and-below events for 40% markup, but the value here isn't great enough to risk the chance of a huge loss on your end.
