Lets see your map - another election thread at PFA

https://www.270towin.com/

This is a fun website that lets you play around with the election from an electoral college standpoint. Love or gate the electoral college, these are the rules which we play under.

Here is my Map.

I feel fairly confidant about the dark Red/Blue states. There are some who say Arizona and Georgia are in play but all the reading I have done seems to indicate they will both be red.

Wi, Mi and Pa are the three major toss up states. I think there is an expectation that Harris will not win all three which is more or less enough to give Trump the election.

Both Vi and Co are Blue but there have been reports that Harris and team ate sending people in to make sure it stays that way. Supposedly insider polling shows it closer to 50/50 than Harris would like.

NV and its 6 votes have been solidly Red but is “in play”.

NC would/could be the state that sends us all to bed early election night. Recent polling has showed this more pink than a true toss up. If Trump gets NC early the math works out that just one more toss up state would give him the election

Colorado is deep blue, as is Virginia. Not saying it will be not be close. NC(?) who knows, a R precinct was ruined by Hurricane Helene. But I stand by what I have said, Trump will sweep the rustbelt and win rather easily. I believe this race ended a couple weeks ago and there will be no drama November 5th. Funny thing is I actually believe if the Dems had exercised some patience on Biden and he did relatively decent in the second debate, he might be ahead. But the Dems wanted a 'woman of color', at all costs. Just hilarious the 2,000 Never RINO Trumpers have been duped like they were in 2016. Watching Liz Cheney is absolutely cringe worthy.

I did this one last night out of curiosity and just a general feel for trends I think may emerge. I did like best case and worst case for Trump and he was 272 on what I viewed as worst case scenario. Like 312 on best case. You can just scroll states and just click donkey or elephant.


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024...bFeWbVeKZcW1Kg

I can assure you Kamala has a 0% chance of holding Wisconsin, I just drove the entire state and its deep Maga. Same with MI. What happens in PA or NC, don't know have not been there. I would assume the Ohio / WV influence will pull PA red.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tgull

I can assure you Kamala has a 0% chance of holding Wisconsin, I just drove the entire state and its deep Maga. Same with MI. What happens in PA or NC, don't know have not been there. I would assume the Ohio / WV influence will pull PA red.

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This is the map that wouldn't shock me, but I wouldn't bet on it either as it gives her NC and him the entire rust belt. You can flip Michigan and NC and arrive at basically the same place. This is like where young suburban people live version of how if both get optimal turnout things would shake out. I don't think she is winning Nevada and Az with his Hispanic vote.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024...ZFuWbVuSbcm2LA

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tgull

I can assure you Kamala has a 0% chance of holding Wisconsin, I just drove the entire state and its deep Maga. Same with MI. What happens in PA or NC, don't know have not been there. I would assume the Ohio / WV influence will pull PA red.

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You're forgetting that there a couple of select counties/cities with a big population in Wisconsin that are always heavy blue and they make up a big percentage of Wisconsin voters. Practically the entire state could be solid red, and those few little blue areas can still carry the state for a dem win.

I left Nevada as a true tossup followed by New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico in order of the next likely to flip red. If not for the cancer that is the twin cities, Minnesota would be among the best states in the Union. I just spent a couple weeks in that region again chasing the Northern Lights. Without visiting the Minneapolis cesspool, one would get the impression that Trump would crush the state - obviously I don't expect him to win there, but it's going to be close this time.

Bonus unedited, besides apple night mode, shot of the auroral oval fully overhead near the Canadian border. Got to see them four nights, even once in Deadwood, South Dakota. This pic is from North Dakota. Normally cameras exaggerate the brightness and vividness of the auroras, but my iPhone 14 couldn't keep up with all of the strobing, flickering etc. of the lights as auroral substorms exploded. What was visible to the naked eye wasn't much different than that believe it or not. When the oval is overhead in a particle dense, supercharged state it is honestly otherworldly. I've seen the lights quite a few times, but that was pretty close to a full on religious experience - coronal bursts that look like energy portals flashing and pulling energy into the sky. One wouldn't believe it until you see it first hand. The auroral oval overhead isn't hard to spot in Fairbanks, Alaska or Iceland etc. but is rare for it to be as powerful as it has been a few times this year due to the solar maximum and increased sunspot activity and extremely rare to be able to see this anywhere in the continental U.S.

I think the usual "fake battlegrounds" are fake once again: Texas, Minnesota, Virginia, Minnesota, Florida, New Mexico, Alaska, Montana... none of these are flipping.

Here is my map:




As you can see, I'm not as optimistic as many of my right wing brethren here.

Early voting in Nevada is going well for Republicans. High chance Trump takes this one. But don't get too excited. Nevada is its own animal, and is the opposite of a bellwether. In 2016, Hillary outperformed expectations there, which freaked out Republicans and gave Democrats all the confidence in the world, since that was the first state coming back with real returns (due to the early voting). Then Hillary got clobbered, and it turned out that Nevada was one of just two battleground states where she overperformed -- the other being Colorado (which was on its way to being dark blue). Nevada is almost random, and they also have a gigantic contingent of voters listed as neither Republican nor Democrat.

Despite Kari Lake possibly being a drag on Trump (she's a horrible candidate), I also believe Trump will take Arizona this time around.

Going east, however, it becomes a different story. I think he's a slight dog in Wisconsin. Again, that state is hard to predict, but I think he's going to lose there. Michigan and Pennsylvania look like true toss-ups. Trump probably has a small edge in North Carolina and Georgia, but again, bad downballot GOP candidates in NC might drag Trump down somewhat.

I don't see any shocks occurring this election. I don't believe any "safe" or "mostly safe" states for either candidate will flip.

How could Kamala win? If the blue wall is preserved, but the other swing states go Trump, Kamala wins, unless somehow Nebraska's blue district goes red, in which we could have a tie!

Kamala could also win by taking either Georgia or NC and losing either Wisconsin or Michigan.

One odd but possible situation would be if Trump wins NV/AZ/MI/PA, and loses WI/GA/NC. That would still give Trump a 270-268 win, provided everything else goes as expected.

Can’t wait till 3am and all the states she is losing in get tired of counting and stop.

Election night is going to be lit.

Might be time to take Nevada from Pink to red

Current Map according to state by state at bookmaker.ag

Mich is -138 D
Pa is -150 R
Wi is -124 R
Oh is -195 R

Nothing else is in the -1xx

https://x.com/fritolaysia/status/1851798030636196286

Funny that Mumford & Sons were joining Kamala.

I loved this Maher segment mocking the woke banjo player who had to apologize for the "pain" he caused by saying he read a right-leaning book:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yysKhJ1U-vM

Go to 4:17 mark

Was gonna with the chalky 270 to 268 Harris win. But everybody has that so let's spice it up. Also I have a big lotto bet on Kam to win by 35-64 ECs.

GL all

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Was gonna with the chalky 270 to 268 Harris win. But everybody has that so let's spice it up. Also I have a big lotto bet on Kam to win by 35-64 ECs.

GL all

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This is pretty much what I think will happen.

:blackcock:lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cleatus

:blackcock:lol

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I sure wish

I'll stick with the same map, but in descending order:

Very likely Trump:

Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

Likely Trump:

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean Trump:

Nevada
Michigan

Lean Kamala but closer than Michigan:

New Hampshire

Likely to very likely Kamala:

Virginia
Minnesota

The range on the popular vote is somewhere around Kamala +1.5 or so to Trump +1. I'm going to stick with my original thoughts which the polls now line up with Trump +0.3

My final day of map. May update before we go live tonight.

One change is semi cosmetic. Nevada is basically a coin toss now so I put it blue for now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

I'll stick with the same map, but in descending order:

Very likely Trump:

Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina

Likely Trump:

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean Trump:

Nevada
Michigan

Lean Kamala but closer than Michigan:

New Hampshire

Likely to very likely Kamala:

Virginia
Minnesota

The range on the popular vote is somewhere around Kamala +1.5 or so to Trump +1. I'm going to stick with my original thoughts which the polls now line up with Trump +0.3

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Not that it was that hard to predict but DDHQ has called Nevada and Arizona.

Current percentage margins for Trump:

AZ - 5.5
NV - 4.8
NC - 3.4
GA - 2.2

PA- 1.9
MI - 1.5
WI - 1.0


AZ and NV still have quite a few votes outstanding and NV is likely to tighten.