Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Printable View
Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Before I get off this thing and dream about my two CA Congressional races coming in, I want to take a look at the Senate.
Coming into the election, Republicans had 53 seats, and Democrats had 45, but also two independents (King and Sanders) who vote with them.
There were 35 Senate races, but 10 were safe Democratic and 11 were safe Republican, and those appear to have all held.
Republicans flipped one in Alabama.
Democrats flipped two -- Arizona and Colorado.
Of the remaining 11, Republicans seem to have probably won in AK, the Perdue race in GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, SC, and TX.
That leaves three:
Michigan: John James (R) leading, likely to lose for the same reason Trump is
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) leading, and very likely to stay ahead
Georgia: Runoff election between Warnock (D) and Loeffler (R) to be scheduled
Best case for Republicans: They win all 3, keeping 53 seats as they had before.
Best case for Democrats: They win all 3, for a net gain of 4 seats. This would give them a 49-49 tie, but Sanders/King would make it 51-49 D.
Most likely case: Tillis wins, James loses, and the GA runoff is hard to predict. But either way, Republicans hold onto a slim lead with 51 or 52.
Pretty huge, actually, given Biden's high likelihood to win right now.
Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.
It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.
So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.
Even if it isn’t, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Not happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Most of the media called the House for the Dems before midnight.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
I haven't been paying attention to it at all, but are you sure about that?
Here's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.
24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.
37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).
165 safe Republican seem to have all held.
If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.
However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.
There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
I don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakI'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Either Collins or the other GA. They only need 50 with a Democratic VP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
A lot of Maine is strangely uncounted and it has ranked choice voting so if nobody gets 50% they start counting second choices.
Thanks DruffQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffHere's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.
24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.
37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).
165 safe Republican seem to have all held.
If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.
However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.
There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
I count it 218/217 currently as well
With 5 seats that Democrats are currently ahead in that Republican could still flip and 3 seats that Republicans are in that could flip back to Democrat.
Seems a bit more likely Democrats hold but my guess is that Pelosi might loser her Speaker role.
LoL if it’s 2 R Chambers and Biden starts going all Republican which he more or less is if you look at his voting record minus a couple key issues.
Here are the very close House seats:
Democratic districts
============
CA-39 R +0.4 84%
IL-14 R +0.6 77%
NY-3 R +1.5 71%
PA-6 R +0.4 73%
Vulnerable districts
============
CA-48 R +0.6 92%
IA-3 D +1.4 95%
AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
CA-25 D +1.0 82%
TX-24 R +1.4 93%
Republican Districts
============
CA-8 R +1.4 55%
That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.
If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.
However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.
So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.
Walter is wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
I've not paid enough attention to whether runoffs are even possible in Ga (though based on your post they must be), but if so, they will tilt heavily Republican and yes, I'm willing to bet 4-5 figures on it right now.
GOP has the Senate. It's not likely we will see 2 Georgia runoffs, and even if there are, Republicans very likely carry at least one of them, and perhaps both.
While I’m glad Biden has (basically) won, the senate staying republican means that we’ll probably get four years of not much happening at all. And who doesn’t love status quo
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTickle
This was in large part the intended result from the Founders; forcing compromise. We just live in a much different world than they did and are playing with stakes they couldn't have comprehended.
Ha, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dickyou and i have a little sweatQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Georgia (GA)
11/4/20
11:01 PM
Georgia (GA)
Republican Candidate -150
Democratic Candidate +115
I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?
Republicans - Senate (+148)
I took that bet only a week or two ago.
Seemed too easy in my mind.
Easy money. I was talking to a friend of mine, and he GUARATEED Susan Collins was going to lose Maine. I was like WTF, keep in mind he never went to Maine in his life. I was in Maine two years ago and Collins actually came into a diner we were at. I did not approach her obviously, but she was a rock star and everyone was doting on her. This whole fantasia syndrome where people were going to vote against her due to Brett Kavanaugh was ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendHa, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?
Republicans - Senate (+148)
I took that bet only a week or two ago.
Seemed too easy in my mind.
Down to -125...Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendHa, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?
Republicans - Senate (+148)
I took that bet only a week or two ago.
Seemed too easy in my mind.
nc on the senate
These House races are so tilting.
CA-21 and CA-25 just aren't updating.
CA-21 has 71% precincts reporting (!!), and that's what they've had since last night.
CA-25 has updated once today, from 81% to 86% reporting, and that's it. They also froze.
What are they doing in these places? Hello Bakersfield! Hello Newhall! Get your shit together!
I've got bets on this stuff and am tired of refreshing and getting no answers.
:fail2
Damn yours is close. What was the odds?
They were just saying on CNN that Georgia works the same way. So with Perdue currently at 50.2%, it's pretty much a lock that we'll have two runoffs there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Seeing how Georgia is about to flip blue in the presidential race, there's surely a decent chance at taking both seats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
UPDATE
Democrats are taking PA-6 and one other I didn't expect in Democratic districts. A few others are close. If everything holds as-is, Democrats will keep 204 of the 209 "safe" Democratic races.
IA-3 is likely to stay D, but Dems are going to hold 3 others where Republicans were leading when I analyzed this last night. IA-2 is a virtual tie right now. If it stays this way, Republicans will pick up 10-11 seats from "vulnerable Democrat" races, and Dems will keep 13-14.
CA-25 is trending to the Republicans but still behind. AZ-6 has turned into a Republican lead. If this ends up being true, Republicans will hold 34 of the 37 "vulnerable Republican" seats, with Democrats picking up 3 (GA-7, NC-2, and NC-6).
CA-8 looks relatively good. It appears Republicans will hold all 165 "safe" Republican races.
This would mean that, at best for Republicans, Democrats will have 220 and Republicans will have 215. The most likely result will be 222-225 Dems.
Republican leads which may slip away:
CA-39
Kim (R) leads Cisneros by 1500 votes with most remaining votes from areas of San Bernadino and LA Counties which have so far favored Cisneros. 88% reporting.
CA-21
Valadao (R) is up 2.8 points in this weird race where they did no counting yesterday, but most of the votes remaining are from Kern County, where Cox is far more popular.
CA-48
Steel (R) is only 2800 votes of incumbent Rouda, with 94% reporting.
AZ-6
Schewikert (R) has been dealing with an ethics scandal, which has made this formerly safe district close. Still, he has taken the lead after trailing, and will probably win.
IA-2
Meeks (R) has 196,773 votes to Hart's 196,487. Wow. Of the counties with votes to be counted, Hart has the edge, especially in Johnson County where she has a 40 point advantage, and is about the size of all of Meeks' remaining counties combined. However, it looks like most ballots counted have been absentee, which would favor Meeks for the remainder. Hmmm...
Two close D-leading races:
CA-25
Garcia (R) trails Smith by 1800 votes, but is rapidly closing in. But time is running out.
UT-4
Owens (R) trails McAdams by 2600 votes, but with 29% of the votes uncounted, Owens could win if most of them aren't absentee. It appears that it might be more in-person votes remaining to be counted, but I'm not sure.
this got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...
if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...
add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...
looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...
on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...
Yeah they basically lit $200m on fire attempting to beat Graham and McConnell, and not even coming close.
They got arrogant. They thought this election would be a blue tidal wave. Instead, Biden just squeaked by, they lost several House seats, and they picked up 1-2 Senate seats (not enough for a majority).
:fail2
They don't lack minds, or power, or money, they lack good ideas.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthis got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...
if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...
add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...
looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...
on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...
Failure of the Lincoln Project who have pushed for mass funding of these moderate candidates. On the other hand, 26 of 30 of DSA candidates won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
We didn't do as well as we thought we could, that doesn't make it a fail. We got rid of Orange Cuck Fascist and that was the overwhelming number one goal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
that's the thing that's maddening...you would think with all of that stuff you would be able to find better ways to spend the money to come up with better ideas...Quote:
Originally Posted by v12clThey don't lack minds, or power, or money, they lack good ideas.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthis got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...
if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...
add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...
looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...
on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...
Well, I might as well let the cat out of the bag.
The reason I was so obsessively tracking all of this is because I found a big value market on Predictit:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2020-election'
On election night after the show, I spent many hours researching all of the house races, because I felt they were probably neglected by bettors there. Most people don't like focusing on the House betting because they are too low-profile, and if you don't live in the local area of each one, you know nothing going in.
Anyway, I found that there was a huge under-value of the possibility that Republicans get close to a House victory but barely fall short (218-221). At one point I got shares for 2c. I also covered myself by buying 2c shares for Repubs winning the house (though I think that's unlikely), and also grabbed shares for 222-225.
So if Democrats get 222-225 I win, if Dems get 218-221 I win big, if the Dems get fewer than 217 I also win pretty big, and if they get 226+, I lose. But my downside is MUCH smaller than my upside.
This makes those two separate CA House raises (CA-21 and CA-25) that much more important to win.
This morning people woke up to realize that there's value here, so the market shot up some, but it has regressed some. You might want to take a look at it.
Thanks for letting us know early.
I couldn't. I wasn't maxed out yet, and if I posted this before, people here would have competed with me for the same shares.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
And Rick Sanchez gave you that inside info on the Polk Negreanu deal....
Pretty selfish Druff.
IDGAF since I don’t bet on anything anymore....but throw your acolytes a bone brother.
Just because Rick Sanchez was a chump and gave away good private info doesn’t mean that Druff should and not maximize the value of his own hard work. I mean, Druff is not a socialist or something. Amirite, Druff?Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Updates:
PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.
Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.
Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.
IA-2 is still at tossup.
Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.
Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.
Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.
CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.
At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.
They may or may not get:
CA-21 (underdog)
CA-25 (underdog)
IA-02 (slight underdog)
CA-39 (no info)
So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.
If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Updates:
PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.
Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.
Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.
IA-2 is still at tossup.
Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.
Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.
Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.
CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.
At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.
They may or may not get:
CA-21 (underdog)
CA-25 (underdog)
IA-02 (slight underdog)
CA-39 (no info)
So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.
If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.
A) Is it possible for there to be no majority in the senate?
B)Is it still possible for the Dems to still claim the majority at this point?
In the event the senate is tied after run offs, the Vice President breaks ties. In the event you’re not American, this is House of Representatives he’s talking about. Dems will still have majorityQuote:
Originally Posted by drufdajewgodQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
A) Is it possible for there to be no majority in the senate?
B)Is it still possible for the Dems to still claim the majority at this point?
Update:
IL-14 is extremely close.
IA-2 is suuuuuuuuuuuuuuper close, with a weird tallying anomaly switching the R up 282 to down 176. However, a small number of votes remain uncounted.
CA-39 looks like it's going to win
CA-21 is a weird race where the Republican is up 5k votes, but he lost in 2018 up 4k votes late in a near-identical scenario. I bailed out of it at 94c on PredictIt. I still think it will win.
CA-25 is very close but I think it's going to squeak by R.
UT-4 is razor thin but slightly favoring the D now.
I need to hit at least 5 of these 6 in order to win my big payout.
For some reason, the world woke up this morning and suddenly realized that the Dems might only get 220-221 seats.
Then they headed for Predictit and started buying up the 218-221 contract, and oddly, also the 214-217, 210-213, and 209 or fewer contracts. Some of America's best and brightest on that site, as previously noted by PLOL.
Right now 218-221 is 35c, which is getting close to being overvalued. In fact, it may be overvalued already. I might be a nit and bail out of it soon and just take my guaranteed profit. But hanging on and winning over 20k on it would also be sweet. Tough one.
IL-14 has flipped back blue, but it's not over.
Oberweis (R), up by 558, is now down by 584. Underwood (D), the incumbent, is back ahead, after previously being up 4k votes and watching that slip away.
https://www.dailyherald.com/news/202...pdates-results
However, it's far from over.
Look at this part:
Lake County's portion in this district is heavily Republican and might have as many as 40k votes still to be reported (!!)Quote:
The Lake County clerk's office plans updates on Tuesday and Nov. 17, and the McHenry County clerk is expected to release its final totals Nov. 18. Kendall and Will counties are waiting until Nov. 17. DeKalb is waiting until Nov. 18.
The other counties don't seem to have that many votes left to report, but there will be some.
So we shall see what happens Tuesday.
Underwood has been leading 55-45% in absentee ballots, though. Oberweis has so far killed it in Lake County (up by 30 points), so if he wins the remaining votes by even a small margin, he's probably got this. This is a bit confusing because Underwood won Lake County by 6 in 2018. However, Oberweis is a stronger candidate than the opponent Underwood faced two years ago.
If Oberweis takes a decent lead on Tuesday when Lake County's votes are released, you'd be smart to load up on 218-221 on Predictit, as those odds will go way up. There is no market for IL-14 itself on Predictit, sadly. 218-221 is way down -- back to 5c, making me sorry I didn't dump a lot of mine at 35c and rebuy.
If you can buy at 5c, you should. There's still a very decent chance Dems get 221 seats -- if both CA seats hold R, if Oberweis wins Lake County, and if either UT-4 or IA-2 goes R.