my opinion has come full circle and i now think he probably has an even chance of winning this. Not betting it, but damn sure wouldn't be surprised if he pulls this off. The Courts will be involved regardless of which side wins. That is guaranteed.
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my opinion has come full circle and i now think he probably has an even chance of winning this. Not betting it, but damn sure wouldn't be surprised if he pulls this off. The Courts will be involved regardless of which side wins. That is guaranteed.
I always gave him 35% last week. . I was 45 yesterday. After looking at today’s polls, I’m at 40. Check with me tmrw. That’s a long way from drawing dead either way.
Zero chance.
People are sick of Trump.
Every single day we have to put up with his bullshit.
When Barack Obama was President, months went by with no problems or drama.
But don't worry. Trump’s going to buy Trump Island, where some of the morons who supported him can move to, you can live there tax free and be ruled by him forever.
https://media.pri.org/s3fs-public/st...?itok=llXw92Mc
i dont think his chances have changed at all. i think hes still a heavy favorite.
his base absolutely does not care about the usual shit that gets people elected. this is their version of tearing down the system.
and thats super unfortunate because the average trump voter is an economically endangered species; the think they are liberating themselves from something thats destroying the middle class but what they are actually getting is:
https://media1.tenor.com/images/7da4...temid=11374995
its going to be rough but the silver lining is that president AOC is going to show up with like 90% of the EC once the bible belt connects the dots that the soup kitchen meals keeping their families healthy for the next 4 years are literally socialism.
i think he has a real chance but like 35%
1/3 of the electorate has already voted and most of them are democrats
“ That leaves the swing state of Florida and its 29 electoral college votes as a glittering prize. So far, from 5.3m mail-in and in-person votes recorded, representing almost 40% of 14 million registered voters, Democrats hold an advantage of more than 7%, or around 400,000 votes.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
not looking to dick joust over it or anything but lest we forget, trump went from like +450 to +1325 like an hour after the polls opened on election day in 2016.
i truly dont think the left has the numbers, regardless of how/when they vote.
that said.
the market might fuck him.
like this is what the market does without stimulus hype handjobs and its terrifying and if it does it a few days in a row, i mean.. checks are going to start bouncing, hospitals are filling up... could move the needle slightly left.
Light action on Trump winning EC.
Country is straight retarded and many are being fed the exact cocktail of what they need to feel validated.
House Speaker Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak today at 14:00ET/18:00GMT regarding COVID-19 relief
:lol2
Rasmussen came out today with Trump +1 nationally, yes they have a R lean, so he probably is down 3-4 nationally. That might sound like a lot, but Trump really only needs 46-47% nationally.
Texas came out today, Trump is +5 so that pipe dream is just that.
PA, Biden has a 5 point lead, which means it really is 1 or 2.
Biden is taking a huge risk not campaigning.
Sure Biden is ahead, but Trump is certainly closing.
I saw he has stops in Georgia and Broward County scheduled this week. Did he cancel them? I just saw it this morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I think he’s taking a risk campaigning there as they feel longshots.
I can cherry-pick individual outlier polls too. A recent CNN poll has Biden +10 in PA, but I'll assume the margin of error is in his favor because reasons, which means it's really a 13 or 14 point lead.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
:lol2
I think both choices suck, but I believe Trump wins 52/48 over Biden.
Of course Trump’s chances are improving.
The stock market is reacting to this. A big red bedshit. Uncertainty has now returned on the election front. Market seems to expect a contentious situation. A battle in the courts and a battle in the streets. That’s not bullish.
I am out and have been for a while.
Wow that sounds awfully familiarQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
(2018)
When RBG died, Trump not holding out on naming a replacement seemed like bad negotiation. He wants to buy the election and isn’t some fiscal conservative.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Right now Pelosi can basically say give me everything I want and Mnuchin knows Trump would do all that and more, but the GOP senators won’t.
I would have thought Trump might hold out a bit and make them agree to a stimulus before naming a replacement. As such, if you aren’t on the ticket in a swing state, your life as a GOP senator is much easier to rail against Biden and Pelosi than to defend Trump once you’ve gotten everything you can imagine out of Trump in regards to the SC.
A day like today is really bad for Trump, and you got Wall Street guys saying we need a blue wave, which isn’t something you ever hear, and Trump can be ready to cut the biggest check imaginable and his people would never go along with it. He has no leverage given he already gave them ACB.
If Trump stopped being a retard and calmly informed voters of the initiatives that Elizabeth Warren is likely to make I think he’d do great.
I live in Mass so I already know Warren. I am hearing Warren forecasting more frequently. Big Tech like Google and Facebook feeling the heat, for example. She is gonna go to town.
But Trump is a retard.
Edit
In fairness to retards I want to clarify that I mean intellectually handicapped. The guy is too stupid to focus on issues involving detail.
Don’t want to be that guy but this sounds like a little b it of revisionist history going on here. Hillary was -1000 weeks into the election and moved up to -1600 the week of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
not looking to dick joust over it or anything but lest we forget, trump went from like +450 to +1325 like an hour after the polls opened on election day in 2016.
i truly dont think the left has the numbers, regardless of how/when they vote.
In the early afternoon the odds started to drop but just by a little into the -1200 area based on some early exit polling that nobody wanted to believe. It was around 4-5 PM that the rumblings started that the polls weren’t coming out as expected in the rust belt and Carolinas/Virginia. The odds crashed to -300 for Hillary. By 6PM Carville went on MSNBC said and proclaimed “this isn’t good” and before you knew it they were even. By 7:30 trump was -250 and most sites had pulled the plug.
The rest, as they say, is history...... until Tine gives his take.
I bet Tyde thinks there's still a chance. If only we could know for sure.
If Hongkonger can come back, which is great, so can Tyde.
C'mon Druff, in the interest of fair and balanced free speech, let him in.
There's one week left.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyDon’t want to be that guy but this sounds like a little b it of revisionist history going on here. Hillary was -1000 weeks into the election and moved up to -1600 the week of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
In the early afternoon the odds started to drop but just by a little into the -1200 area based on some early exit polling that nobody wanted to believe. It was around 4-5 PM that the rumblings started that the polls weren’t coming out as expected in the rust belt and Carolinas/Virginia. The odds crashed to -300 for Hillary. By 6PM Carville went on MSNBC said and proclaimed “this isn’t good” and before you knew it they were even. By 7:30 trump was -250 and most sites had pulled the plug.
The rest, as they say, is history...... until Tine gives his take.
i was expecting some huge gotcha and cant find it.
the salient point of my poast was that as early votes came in, everything was blue. and then trumps line went to +1350 and beyond and i started laying money on him.
not sure what youre fishing for tbh.
No. The answer is that bottomfaggot and Biffcunt live in an alternate reality where Biden is hiding, rather than reality where in fact Biden is out campaigning.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRI saw he has stops in Georgia and Broward County scheduled this week. Did he cancel them? I just saw it this morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I think he’s taking a risk campaigning there as they feel longshots.
I guess it makes sense, in Back to the Future 2 Biff is rich and powerful in the alternate reality.
He called a lid yesterday at 9am and took five days off before the last debate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakNo. The answer is that bottomfaggot and Biffcunt live in an alternate reality where Biden is hiding, rather than reality where in fact Biden is out campaigning.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I guess it makes sense, in Back to the Future 2 Biff is rich and powerful in the alternate reality.
Trump is holding Three rallies per day.
lol @ "Biden out campaigning"
When Trump is re-elected and people look back as to why, it will be obvious.
Who wants to vote for the side of darkness and fear? Lockdowns, masking, closed schools, bankrupt businesses, rioting, political violence & censorship.
:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by v12cl
Well said, we must still go out and vote though, the dems are going to try and steal this election, we need to make it impossible to do so.
#TRUMP2020
Trump and Coronavirus is the cause of all this.Quote:
Originally Posted by v12cl
If Trump is re-elected America is fucked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QGat1WxC14
Quote:
Originally Posted by v12cl
and yet here you are.
Lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by v12cl
I voted for Trump and that’s exactly what I got.
Not fishing - just saying you could have got Trump +1000 for 7 days before the election. There was no morning of spike, at least at the euro booksQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
i was expecting some huge gotcha and cant find it.
the salient point of my poast was that as early votes came in, everything was blue. and then trumps line went to +1350 and beyond and i started laying money on him.
not sure what youre fishing for tbh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNot fishing - just saying you could have got Trump +1000 for 7 days before the election. There was no morning of spike, at least at the euro booksQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
i do recall him being 500-700'ish before hand now that i think about it..
There is all kinds of shit I wish I could remember exactly. I recall Election Day on predictit when you could get Trump for a nickel, and possibly less, but I wish there was some historical record of shit that I didn’t have to dig deep into the recesses of google for.
Like I’ve been enjoying the 538 podcasts and PLO’s star spangled gambling pod, but that’s mostly because they’re saying shit I want to hear. There feels like a bit of revisionist history with Nate and his 30% Trump talk. Like I get he’s a poll aggregator so even if you finish at 30, it counts, because your math is all based on the polls and they tightened very late. Still, I swear I recall like 93/7 until the very last second. That’s different than being the guy saying I think Trump might be 30 the whole last month and we have to be careful and this is a fire hazard. It’s more like shouting fire once it’s already ablaze. I wanted to kill that motherfucker on election night 2016.
There was a poster on 2+2, I can’t recall who, but a smart guy on a host of topics and a huge poker winner and educated guy, and I recall him just so deep on Hillary in every market he could access across the globe. He had to drop a million. Those dudes on PLO’s podcast remind me of that dude. Most of the time that dude is right, but when he’s wrong, it’s expensive as fuck.
Guys how many gaffes equal the onset of dementia? How can anyone vote for Biden when he still thinks he's running for the Senate and couldn't remember Trump's name? And don't get me started on the laptop evidence that our corrupt FBI had in December and didn't investigate and the fake media that isn't even trying to investigate what's been handed to them. IF Biden wins, I will accept that it's the people's choice but I'll never understand that so many people would roll the dice as to the competency of the most powerful person in the world. God help us if we ever have a President Harris which seems more likely than not imho. All I know is that I am very weary of all of this and can't wait for it to be over. Thanks for letting me get that off my chest. No OPA! for now
This is the part I enjoy the most from ‘Merica. “I can’t wait for this to be over.”Quote:
Originally Posted by IamGreek
There is no outcome where this is over. Maybe for the reasons you cite above. Maybe because Trump binks.
So many gonna be in for a wake up call in merely a few days. You included apparently
ill take biden's dementia over trumps dementia / mental illness / personality disorders and its absolutely not even close.
250k dead Americans
Economy in the shitter
Rioting in the streets
A virus out of control that he is doing nothing to control
Half his cabinet indicted on federal charges
Millions unemployed
FOOD LINES
But sure trumps fat ass is gonna Win cus he's in PA doing rallies in front of the dumb and misinformed
trump is going to lose
Who in their right mind wouldn't want 4 more years of THIS???
Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick