Report here:
http://calvinayre.com/2015/10/03/bus...-trading-talk/
Story originally surfaced in this thread:
https://rotogrinders.com/threads/dra...ip-leak-850584
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Report here:
http://calvinayre.com/2015/10/03/bus...-trading-talk/
Story originally surfaced in this thread:
https://rotogrinders.com/threads/dra...ip-leak-850584
The guy is a cheater for sure using his statistical advantages working for Draft Kings to play on competitor Fan Duel which they allow him to do so.
You can view his fully tracked results here:
https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/et...s?type=biggest
It don't say the amounts he won but he guarantee is in most of the tournament description to give you a good idea of all his first place binks in MASSIVE fields.
If Draft Kings don't do anything about this then hopefully Fan Duel cuts this fucking guy off from playing on there site.
Good piece about this here too B&P:
https://dfsreport.com/6840/fanduel-draftkings-mishaps/
What a scumbag, Ethan is the reincarnation of Russ Hamilton. He should step down immediately.
Lineup data shouldn't even be accessible by the CEO, let alone some customer relations lackey. It shows how incompetent and/or corrupt this company is. I guarantee this moron getting caught is only the faintest hint of the real scandal.
If you work in this business for any site you shouldn't be allowed to play not only for the site you work for but also competitors due to the insider information you have access to.
It would be too easy to make friends with your enemies to share this kind of information so each person involved can play in there competitors competitions.
It's also too easy for anyone with this type of information to sell it to people privately, have a friend or family member setup an account for them that they can play under, or just feed this third party the information for profit. A person could do this not just to play on the competitors side but also have them enter games on exact site they work for.
This whole situation is mess when you think deeply about all the ways someone with this information can use it for an unfair advantage versus all the other people playing.
Most of these big tournaments allow multiple buyins so they can use edges to fire several entries into each and will show a decent ROI from doing so.
I play a little but overall the rake is WAY too high in DFS. We are talking about 13-15% taken out of some of these big tournaments prize pool. They might give a small rebate as far as rakeback in the forum of FPPs, deposit bonuses, and eat some paypal fees but still the rake is outrageous.
In head to head matches they are taking out 10% per side until you get up to $100 then it slightly decreases. That requires you to win at a rate that the heavy majority can't do in order to get ahead.
If you play poker online a heads up sit and go standard industry rake for games under $100 is 5% on top of the buyin for each side versus a DFS site just taking 10% out.
In other words a $10 h2h match in DFS is technically a $9+1 buyin where first gets $18 versus a heads up sng that is $10+.50 paying $20 for first. Since a poker site charges the 5% on top of the buyin it is even less you will have to win to show a profit.
For this example you have to win 55.55% of H2H matches in DFS just to get to even versus 52.5% at the equivalent buyin in poker heads up sngs. That 3% more is HUGE when showing profit in games like this.
Yep, the scandal deepens...
https://dfsreport.com/6898/follow-up...nduel-mishaps/
I agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
These early DFS sites remind me of unregulated online poker sites.
Super shady, and vulnerable to shady assholes manipulating them.
This is the problem with "carve outs" in laws. They always get abused.
DFS is legal because there was a concern that anti-gambling laws would criminalize recreational fantasy sports leagues. So fantasy sports was carved out as legal, and that eventually gave rise to daily fantasy sports, which is all about gambling rather than a friendly yearlong fantasy sports competition with a prize as the incentive.
So due to this carve out, there aren't any real regulations on the book for operations of DFS sites, and as a result we have scandals like this.
Ethan is a fucking lair.
He claims that he is the only one with access to DFS data.
Bullshit!!! I bet a lot of DraftKing empolyees have access to this data.
Before DraftKings employees used DFS player data to play on Fanduel, they use to sell information to some top players.
Read the fine print on some of these fantasy sports contests, you must agree to use your name and image to be promoted by DraftKings for free.
http://media.cardplayer.com/assets/0...1/DK_Promo.jpg
There is a lot more to these results than the casual observers might realize.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPokerThe guy is a cheater for sure using his statistical advantages working for Draft Kings to play on competitor Fan Duel which they allow him to do so.
You can view his fully tracked results here:
https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/et...s?type=biggest
It don't say the amounts he won but he guarantee is in most of the tournament description to give you a good idea of all his first place binks in MASSIVE fields.
If Draft Kings don't do anything about this then hopefully Fan Duel cuts this fucking guy off from playing on there site.
This particular employee here Ethan Haskell has been on a SERIOUS HEATER since from what I understand also correlates to the point in time where he was being given access to this data to write his little article for the 'Draftkings playbook'. He has had 4 Major MLB Scores and now a massive NFL 350k score in a 35 day period. And these are all outside of what he ever won from what I can gather before, let alone in that short period of time across 2 different sports. Given what we now know, he has possibly had access to that sensitive data over that same period and it really smells bad.
Its insane to think this article cant wait until after the games start or end but this employee has been absolutely winning way wayyy beyond the norm and absolutely destroying it since he has had access to this data (via his position writing for the DK playbook).
I don't believe this guy overnight got so good that he is just eviscerating the competition all of a sudden. I am quite certain it's actually a function of his access to the most sensitive and important information in DFS, player owned %s. And being able to set your l.us according to it when noone else (aside from insiders) have information to it.
It is the holy grail in DFS aside from being able to str8 super use people in HU contests (knowing there lineups). Having access to tournaments owned %s of players before anyone else can get it.
Now Forbes put out an article:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/darrenhe...laining-to-do/
THEY ACTUALLY ARENT THE BASTIONS OF MORALITY AND CONDUCT YOU THOUGHT.
A major scandal is erupting in the multibillion dollar industry of fantasy sports, the online and unregulated business in which players assemble their fantasy teams with real athletes. On Monday, the two major fantasy companies were forced to release statements defending their businesses’ integrity after what amounted to allegations of insider trading, that employees were placing bets on information not available to the public.
Last week, a DraftKings employee admitted to inadvertently releasing data before the start of the third week of N.F.L. games, a move akin to insider trading in the stock market. The employee – a midlevel content manager — won $350,000 at rival site FanDuel that same week.
The incident has raised questions about who at daily fantasy companies has access to valuable data, how it is protected and whether the industry can — or wants — to police itself.
The leagues have been swelling in popularity, their advertisements blanketing football game broadcasts.
Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE
Poor Odds: Daily Fantasy Sports and the Hidden Cost of America’s Weird Gambling LawsSEPT. 24, 2015
Some commercials for daily fantasy games, such as this one from DraftKings, show fans accepting million-dollar checks as prizes.An Ad Blitz for Fantasy Sports Games, but Some See Plain Old GamblingSEPT. 16, 2015
Kelly Hirano, left, and Ken Fuchs of Yahoo introduced the company's new fantasy sports games in San Francisco.Yahoo Will Enter Daily Fantasy Sports MarketJULY 8, 2015
The industry has its roots in informal fantasy games that began years ago with groups of fans playing against each other for fun over the course of a season. They assembled hypothetical teams and scored points based on how players did in actual games.
Continue reading the main story
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Get the big sports news, highlights and analysis from Times journalists, with distinctive takes on games and some behind-the-scenes surprises, delivered to your inbox every week.
But in recent years, companies, led by DraftKings and FanDuel, have set up online daily and weekly games in which fans pay an entry fee to a website — anywhere from 25 cents to $1,000 — to play dozens if not hundreds of opponents, with prize pools that can pay $2 million to the winner. Critics have complained that the setup is hardly different from Las Vegas-style gambling that is normally banned in the sports world.
On MondayDraftKings and FanDuel, released a joint statement that said that “nothing is more important” than the “integrity of the games we offer,” but offered few specifics about how they keep their contests on the level.
A spokesman for DraftKings acknowledged that employees of both companies have won big jackpots playing at other daily fantasy sites. Late Monday, the two companies temporarily banned their employees from playing games or in tournaments at any other site.
Continue reading the main story
RELATED IN OPINION
The Boston office of DraftKings, an online fantasy sports company.Editorial: Rein In Online Fantasy Sports Gambling OCT. 5, 2015
“Both companies have strong policies in place to ensure that employees do not misuse any information at their disposal and strictly limit access to company data to only those employees who require it to do their jobs,” the statement said. “Employees with access to this data are rigorously monitored by internal fraud control teams, and we have no evidence that anyone has misused it.”
Industry analysts said the episode could leave the leagues open to further criticism that they are too loosely regulated.
“The single greatest threat to the daily fantasy sports industry is the misuse of insider information,” said Daniel Wallach, a sports and gambling lawyer at Becker & Poliakoff in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “It could imperil this nascent industry unless real, immediate and meaningful safeguards are put in place. If the industry is unwilling to undertake these reforms voluntarily, it will be imposed on them involuntarily as part of a regulatory framework.”
Already, there has been intensifying discussion on social media and among lawmkers over whether daily fantasy games are pushing the boundaries of an exemption in a 2006 federal law that has allowed them to operate. The law prohibited games like online poker but permitted fantasy play, deemed games of skill not chance, under lobbying from professional sports leagues. The games are legal in all but five states.
But because Congress did not foresee how fantasy sports would explode, one member, Representative Frank Pallone Jr., Democrat of New Jersey, recently requested a hearing to explore the relationship between fantasy sports and gambling. “I really think if they had to justify themselves at a hearing they wouldn’t be able to,” Mr. Pallone said in a recent interview.
In this case, the data that was leaked by the DraftKings employee, Ethan Haskell, showed what particular players were most used in all lineups submitted to the site’s Millionaire Maker contests. Usually, that data is not released until the lineups for all games are finalized. Getting it early, however, is of great advantage to make tactical decisions, especially when your opponents do not have the information at all.
A spokeswoman for DraftKings said Haskell simply made a mistake and that the company was certain that he did not use the information improperly. She declined to go into specifics about the safeguards or the company’s auditing policies.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel had prohibited their employees from playing on their own company sites, but they do not restrict them from playing elsewhere. In fact, representatives of both companies acknowledged that many employees of daily fantasy companies were players first and had continued to compete on other sites. Ben Brown, a co-founder of Daily Fantasy Sports Report, was first to disclose that Haskell had posted the information.
“There’s a significant amount of crossover,” said Chris Grove, an industry analyst and editor of legalsportsreport.com. “The nature of the industry is so specialized and so new that at the speed which they grew they relied heavily on the player population.”
Many of these employees set the prices of players and the algorithms for scoring. In short, they make the market.
As daily fantasy sports has blossomed into a multibillion dollar industry in the past year DraftKings and FanDuel have become a cherished sponsor of M.L.B. and N.F.L franchises.
Eilers Research, which studies the industry, estimates that daily games will generate around $2.6 billion in entry fees this year and grow 41 percent annually, reaching $14.4 billion in 2020. So high are the potential financial rewards that DraftKings and FanDuel have found eager partners in N.F.L. teams, even as the league remains a staunch opponent of sports betting.
Jerry Jones of the Cowboys and Robert K. Kraft of the New England Patriots have stakes in DraftKings and the company recently struck a three-year deal with the N.F.L. to become a partner of the American football league’s International Series in Great Britain, where sports betting is legal. In addition, DraftKings has tapped hundreds of millions from Fox Sports, and FanDuel has raised hundreds of millions of dollars from investors like Comcast, NBC and KKR.
Adam Krejcik, a managing director at Eilers Research, said early missteps are often part of booming growth in a new and often misunderstood sector like daily fantasy sports. He said whether Haskell, the DraftKings employee, made an innocent mistake or not the damage is done.
“Certainly does not look good from an optics standpoint and it strengthen the case for additional oversight and regulation,” he said.
Grove, of legalsportsreport.com, said this may be a watershed moment for a sector that has resisted regulation but now may need it to prove its legitimacy.
“You have information that is valuable and should be tightly restricted,” said Grove. “There are people outside of the company that place value on that information. Is there any internal controls? Any audit process? The inability of the industry to produce and clear and compelling answer to these questions to anyone’s satisfaction is why it needs to be regulated.”
You don't say...lol
Can you provide the link?
Expect this scandal to get VERY UGLY before it cools down.
Couple things... I've been going off on a rant about some of this shit lately.
1) Knew there had to be some shit like this going on, just like I, and a lot of other people were saying about all the poker sites back in the day... Integrity will not run high in these companies. They are all trying to make as much $ as possible before heavy regulations set in. That means they will cheat, lie and steal as much as humanly possible.
2) How is this any different from gambling on teams like Pete Rose did? I think in a lot of ways it's worse in that it seems a lot of athletes are playing fantasy in games they are directly involved in, yet this shit is advertised constantly on all the networks, including the NFL Network. That in itself makes no sense at all considering the NFL's stance on gambling and saying they would never allow a team in Vegas due to the gambling aspect of it. Plus, they are extremely restrictive on sportsbooks to the point where you question their motives.
New York Times blowing this story up huge! Currently the #1 most viewed article on their site.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sp...855964&ref=cta
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas1369
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sp...imes&smtyp=cur
Hopefully he doesn't pay, just like you never shipped my sushi you horrible lying faggotQuote:
Originally Posted by lol wow
Can someone write up a quick dumbed down version of how you would set your lineup at a different site if you knew the percentages at your own site?
Actually I see on another site where they are saying you could look up the biggest winners picks and base your picks off of that. Yeah that would be a big advantage. Just trying to figure out how big of an advantage this would be.
Prob would give you a huge advantage considering how much the best players are making there. You could literally take the 10 best winners and make combos out of all of their lineupsQuote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Like if it were poker and an employee could take the big winners hole cards and review them they would prob get better but they would still have to process and use the information correctly
For Dfs they just have to copy and paste. It is like theft IMO
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacProb would give you a huge advantage considering how much the best players are making there. You could literally take the 10 best winners and make combos out of all of their lineupsQuote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Like if it were poker and an employee could take the big winners hole cards and review them they would prob get better but they would still have to process and use the information correctly
For Dfs they just have to copy and paste. It is like theft IMO
Yeah, when I made the first post I kind of was thinking of it like they only had access to the overall % of all players combined and not for specific end users. I just couldnt see where you gained much of an advantage knowing just the overall %'s.
You are right where the obvious play would be to simply look up the biggest winners and combo their plays. That is a huge advantage.
SO obviously, when ever money is involved there is always going to be shady stuff going on. This was actually pretty far down on my list of things they would do to cheat. But in reality, shouldnt everyone have realized this was obviously happening? I would bet way too many of the employees have access to this info.
LOL Boston Herald:
Fairly scummy but not cheating.
It's a massive edge.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Any skilled player would pay 100x more to know pool selection %s than he would to see top 10 winners' lineups.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Source: Officials from House Energy & Commerce Committee to discuss impact of DFS controversy. Hearing has been requested to assess DFS.
I don't know who's twitter this is, but has 20k followers. Also has MLBs response of being surprised to learn employees could participate (ughh) on it.
https://twitter.com/DavidPurdum
Talking about this live on outside the lines...how deep will this rabbit hole go...
Purdum is a freelance gambling reporter who's generally respected by notoriously cunty pro sports bettors.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
It's a little shocking that ESPN is covering this given their equity in DraftKings. Any publicity is good publicity? Blow up current DK ownership so they can seize greater control?Quote:
Originally Posted by RealTalk
Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalkIt's a massive edge.
Any skilled player would pay 100x more to know pool selection %s than he would to see top 10 winners' lineups.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Saying its a "massive edge" worth "100x more" without explaining why doesn't really further the discussion.
http://larrybrownsports.com/fantasy/...profile/276741
Not saying dude cheated but.....on a PR level....it looks bad:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBetQuote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
Saying its a "massive edge" worth "100x more" without explaining why doesn't really further the discussion.
You are essentially 'setting your board' against the field, with this information.
If you could have the actual real, fields owned percentages per player (variables) across the field before selecting your lineups, you could then take their expectations and figure out which combinations of players, who also have the lowest owned %s and given matchups, can likely send you to the top of the leaderboard. That prized top .1 percentile in Big fields GPPs.
Owned %s is your edge, or lackthereof on the entire field. If player 'X' is owned 45% and gets 25pts, but player 'h' is owned 3% with reasonably the same expectation (be it bc of matchups/splits/historical pitcher vs. batter matchups w.e) You then will know across the field (where the huge edge comes in) that player producing 25 pts owned @ only 3% will carry you over 97% of all other lineups owned. You would always want to select the lower owned player with reasonably the same or more expectation. If you had player/variable 'x' who also got 25 pts but was owned 45% of the board, all 45% of lineups would gain with you when that player scored. 45% across the field isn't a significant edge, not enough of one to outpace over 350,000 combinatorials in NFL for example. Whereas a 3% owned player will always gain you against the other 97% of other lineups, who don't have him when he performs.
Its literally the most pertinent and should be coveted data in all of DFS, always and ever. In constructing highly optimal lineups your edge on the entire field is via owned %s. This is how you even have a chance to outright win at all. If you have players who are all highly owned, you aren't going to sniff that coveted top .1 percentile like that.
This is why so many 'pros' are also employees, the being on the inside is the edge they have that you and others don't and up to this point couldnt ever get. It has been dirty and it 100% needed to happen. I believe the games get fairer from here on out, and thats a totally net positive to actually good players, who had people like this chewing peoples EQUITY over a long and large sample slowly but surely. It has gotten too brazen, too pathetic, too widespread it was not going to last much longer before being found out.
This is a blessing in disguise imo, one way or the other and was necessary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by garrettQuote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBet
Owned %s is your edge, or lackthereof on the entire field. If player 'X' is owned 45% and gets 25pts, but player 'h' is owned 3% with reasonably the same expectation (be it bc of matchups/splits/historical pitcher vs. batter matchups w.e) You then will know across the field (where the huge edge comes in) that player producing 25 pts owned @ only 3% will carry you over 97% of all other lineups owned. You would always want to select the lower owned player with reasonably the same or more expectation. If you had player/variable 'x' who also got 25 pts but was owned 45% of the board, all 45% of lineups would gain with you when that player scored. 45% across the field isn't a significant edge, not enough of one to outpace over 350,000 combinatorials in NFL for example. Whereas a 3% owned player will always gain you against the other 97% of other lineups, who don't have him when he performs.
Thanks Garrett for the explanation. I guess the problem I see is that with your example you're not taking into account the cost of each player. I can certainly see where if you had two players at the exact same price with the exact same projected output then you would select the player less owned. Totally understood. The way you explain it, makes it seem like basically taking the lowest owned player in every category would be the play cause you'd have the players that were most likely to only help you. But it seems there is way more to it than that. As you can see when looking at their lineups, they aren't just selecting all of the least owned players.
I guess I just feel like people are saying what a huge advantage this is yet nobody is explaining why it is so huge. I can definitely see where theres a small advantage (like in the example I stated above) .
I'm fully aware that Im just missing something, I just dont know what.
I am not speculating I am telling you how it works.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBetQuote:
Originally Posted by garrett
Thanks Garrett for the explanation. I guess the problem I see is that with your example you're not taking into account the cost of each player. I can certainly see where if you had two players at the exact same price with the exact same projected output then you would select the player less owned. Totally understood. The way you explain it, makes it seem like basically taking the lowest owned player in every category would be the play cause you'd have the players that were most likely to only help you. But it seems there is way more to it than that. As you can see when looking at their lineups, they aren't just selecting all of the least owned players.
I guess I just feel like people are saying what a huge advantage this is yet nobody is explaining why it is so huge. I can definitely see where theres a small advantage (like in the example I stated above) .
I'm fully aware that Im just missing something, I just dont know what.
Of course I didn't imply you just select the player with the lowest owned %s just because of their owned %s. A players expected production relative to his owned % is huge though. Especially if you knew almost exactly what the entire contests player ownership %s were shortly before the contest happened. And could then create your lineup against it. You would select the one with the lowest owned % of say a subset of 3 or 4 though. Assuming they all had the same expectation that contest. And only were different by their ownd % in that contest. These guys actually knew and were able to set lineups, contrary too thats the big issue and no one else could have it, but these 'insiders'. Factor in the ability to 'multi enter' add a few highly favorable lineups with insane knowledge/information and you'll likely win a whole lot with access to this type of information for many months, or years.
You would absolutely always go with the variable that has the biggest edge vs. the field, via a lower owned % in that contest. They need to also have a high expectation too. Price relative to expectation to optimize your output. There is many players to select from in any given slate at all sports. Players are just variables, each variable has an expectation, a combination of them variables a/b/g/j/k/l/i/o = a units net. Algorithms do a lot of this for these 'pros'. Its not really as great as everyone thinks, its scummy especially when they get this really useful information on actual players owned %s when noone else has it.
It's a lot more about price relative to expectation and owned % than most realize. And I am not going to start laying out formulas on a poker forum in a scandal thread. You can take it from there and realize in the wrong hands, people could get a huge edge with this info. And when they are 'pros' and/or employees, its impact would be even more problematic. Especially over a large enough sample in big field/top heavy structures with major money at stake.
I've read that there is a very steep pyramid to the payouts on these sites. What I mean by this is 1% of the players are driving 20% of the entries and claiming 40% of the payouts.
Unless you treat this like you are running a quant fund on Wall Street and can put in hours a day running stats, not only to the players but likelihood of selection, you have no shot over the long term.
Aren't these sites run by poker players? Didn't the card runner crew start them? If so what do you expect?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suicide King
That was Draftday I think, but your point remains. Seeing pics of the executives of Draftkings and Fanduel reminds me of the Absolute Poker hierarchy.
Don't forget about Draft Day all up in that ass day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwARM9BMnbY
Yeah that makes sense Garrett.
Some user named THAY3R in the 2+2 NVG thread also has some really good explanations. I like this one which combines the experts pick information with the overall player owned %'s
Quote:
If you overheard/accessed a weather betting expert's private information that he thinks it will rain 1.2 inches tomorrow, you see that 20% of the bettors picked 1.2 inches, 10% picked 1.1 inches, 30% picked 1.0 inches, etc.
Then yes you'd absolutely have an advantage over that person by betting on 1.1 assuming 1.2 wasn't >2x more likely than 1.1
Access to complete raw data and player owned %'s before games start would give someone a gigantic edge, as well as access to experts selections would. Quibble all you want about the definition of insider trading but the possible implications of this situation is pretty damn serious.
It is absolutely absurd that employees let alone bettors have access to this information.