Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
I think there's going to be big opportunity to buy cruise line stock when this is at the bottom.
Not yet, though, as a complete shutdown of the US market is looming, and that will send it in the toilet even further.
NCL (Norwegian) fell from $59.65 on 1/14/20 to $19.81 on 3/9/20.
I could see it falling into single digits if a shutdown occurs.
I think I'm going to buy some when the shutdown is over (or if it's clear it's not going to happen) AND the coronavirus hysteria dies down. I believe this is one industry which will recover, though it will take a little time.
Wynn Resorts -- down almost 50% in the same time period -- and similar casino stocks, are another clear buy opportunity once the hysteria is over.
I think this is a rare opportunity presenting itself, because these were healthy businesses pressed down by an external force, which will cease to be a factor once it's brought under control.
Let's say the coronavirus is no longer a big deal by October 2020. Can you picture Vegas still struggling in early 2022? I can't.
The cruise industry may take a bit of time, because this kinda woke people up to a long-known but little-discussed danger of cruising. So even once this passes, people may wonder, "What's next?"
However, memories are short, and people love cruises (especially old people) because you get a lot for your money, and everything is done for you. For many elderly people, it's the only way they can efficiently travel, without being bogged down by long drives, airport hassles, dragging luggage from place to place, etc. I can't see that dying out, unless this thing really kills a lot of cruisers, which it probably won't because cruise ships will stop running before that happens.