A minute ago both my games looked awesome. Now they’re completely fucked. Ravens are toast. Ravens have incentive not to score if they make a few first downs.
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A minute ago both my games looked awesome. Now they’re completely fucked. Ravens are toast. Ravens have incentive not to score if they make a few first downs.
Oh it mattered. Ended up 35-28 and I had Utah +8, most had them +9. That score makes it 40-28. They got a safety and no one scored a point in the 4th.Quote:
Originally Posted by lol wow
Well Steelers covered. Fucking Ravens fucked up a really profitable day.
Did an intra game bet on FSU, -7.5. Same thing just playing for the W not taking into account the point spread. Bastards.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I have to do community service if I hope to be granted early release.
I think there was data leak at BetOnline.
I just discovered BOL offers 2FA.
We didn’t even have phones when we opened that account much less 2FA.
Jets -1
Just got jets pick -108
Well, we are out of the Circa Survivor. Our final of 3 tickets survived for like 7 weeks without losing, but Houston got us again.
We had a very very tough choice between Cincy and Pitt. We very narrowly went with Cincy. Pitt barely won, though Green Bay had a decent final shot on the 16 yard line to end it. That's what we worried about -- that Pittsburgh would never be able to put the game away.
Cincy was down 20-7 in the 3rd, and then we seemed especially screwed when Burrow threw an INT in the middle of the 4th, down 10. Then Cincy got the ball back and scored a TD on a 64-yard passing play. Then they got the ball back and did another long pass, taking them to the 7 yard line, with under 3 mins left. They couldn't get it over with 3 tries, and had to kick a FG. But at least it was tied.
Then Houston moved the ball quickly down, and that was that. 30-27.
As a small consolation, my Arizona over won.
Our ticket could have sold for about $15k on the secondary market coming into this week, and probably $30k had we gone with Pitt, as half the field was eliminated today.
I’m no “NFL god” but another winning week at least for the good guysQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk BucketAdding Raiders +1 vs NY JetsQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
:yes
Raptors -9.5
Kings ML
+311
Raptors -9.5
Kings +2.5
Bills -6
+521
I’ll bet betting the 3 games straight also, Bills I’ll bet at 7 because of juice.
Going to wait until later to see Kings health. I could opt of them and parlay the other 2 depending on health of Fox.
Kings spam 3s. They’ve shot poorly lately. Cavs are horrible at defending the 3 every year.
Not inconceivable Broncos could give Bills a game tonight…
Something to watch.
In November, NBA games with totals of 235.5+ have gone over something like 14 out of 15 times, and most were not close.
This seems significant to me.
Lower totals than 235.5 do not seem to have a discernible pattern.
I saw this on my own. I didn't read it anywhere.
todge one hundred percent heard it on channel 86 on sirius or is it 88 whats the nba one my brain is not great 84 is ncaa football
hot take my brain is dying
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
You dont say?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Its the “its that way for a reason” theory.
The Iowa Rutgers total was 27 last week. Over had no shot.
The washington oregon totals in the 70’s.
PGA, RSM Classic starts this Thursday at Sea Island, Georgia.....
taking the local boy Brian Harman.... it's his home course, right where he grew up, he finished tied 2nd last year, Brian Harman also won the British Open this year ( July 2023 ) , why is this important ?? .... very very similar playing conditions... rainy, drizzly and WINDY !! it's a coastal course on the east side of Georgia, first 2 days are forecasted to be rain and wind... obviously he knows how to play these conditions as he grew up there and won the British Open with very similar playing conditions..... anyways i'm taking him to finish top 20 at -105 and of course got him to win at +1800...
it's enough to take all y'all to Sizzler.....
edit: get it before the odds get worse....
The 235.5+ totals were 2-1 yesterday. I didn't fire any.
Time for my first shot at this "system" until I see things change.
Soon:
Washington vs Dallas - Over 243
Later:
Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5
I feel like a big time plop.
And here's an NHL dog for you:
Philadelphia +195 at Carolina
My last NHL bet was also a Flyers dog and it easily won.
Right now up 2-0 through 1 period. Underrated team.
Sadly when I finally fire on these high total overs in NBA, of course it's not going that great. Excellent start, but then scoring slowed, and it's on pace for 235 in a blowout game. Game line was -3.5 so wasn't supposed to be a blowout but Bullets (yes, the Bullets) have been awful.
Was was a sweat but it won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
So did Philly Flyers +195.
Lakers over on pace to win at the half, too.
133 point first half, and can't hit o235.5
Final score 125-110
Painful.
End up 1-1 on nba overs, 1-0 in the +195 dog hockey pick
There has long been a discussion this season that the Bengals are overrated, even with Burrow recovering from his earlier calf injury.
Now there's talk that they are covering up something being wrong with his right hand: https://nypost.com/2023/11/16/sports...thing-on-hand/
Both the Bengals and Ravens are coming off disappointing losses as favorites on Sunday, with the Texans beating the Bengals (and eliminating us from the Circa Survivor contest), and the Browns slipping by the Ravens. Both teams were at home, and both games ended up close.
Bad right hand or not, I think this one goes to Baltimore.
Baltimore -3.5 -110 vs Cincinnati
Glad to see Druff is also on RAVENS
RAVENS -3.5 not that I love laying points to Joe Cool Burrows
However I was happy to see Dr Peters also bet Jets on Sunday and that was just a regret. I had planned to bet Raiders all day, but then I read some stat about Rookie O Connells pass game being mostly short, underneath stuff and how well the Jets defend against that and I just thought that would be a tough spot for the rookie. I previously had made a joke about once betting money on Zach Wilson in an NFL game then I went and did it again. Trash QB.
Think this is a night where i can take under 2.5 sharks and feel ok about it.
Over 6.5 cal/van if you want to get spicy
losing andrews not great for the good guys
Could not be less worried only wish I bet more
starting to get slightly worried nicholas
HAS BURROW THROWN HIS LAST PASS OF THE SEASON?
Brother it’s football with 2 good teams I didn’t expect a cake walk
I don’t get nervous about games I bet
Hope Joe B is ok
Looks like he did indeed have issues with his wrist, and they got worse during the game.
Glad I jumped on this one.
Four NBA overs:
Sacramento vs San Antonio - Over 238 -110
Atlanta vs Philadelphia - Over 236 -110
Milwaukee vs Charlotte - Over 240.5 -110
Utah vs Phoenix - Over 237 -110
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
JESUS CHRIST. HE HAS.
I bet this with druff
Utah vs Phoenix - Over 237
2-1 on these, but none were a foregone conclusion. Milwaukee had a low 2nd half, the other two games had a big second half.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
At some point we will see adjustment in the lines to where these are not +EV. "Systems" rarely work these days, except for very short periods of time when the game changes. For the most part, systems are for ploppies who are fooled by randomness.
Basically once the high totals creep up further, it won't be profitable to auto-fire these.
Funny enough, I liked Milwaukee MUCH better to cover the over than Atlanta (where I would have picked under, independent of this "system"), yet Atlanta covered by 6, and Milwaukee failed to cover by 11.5.
One "system" I wish I bet -- one which lasted a long time -- was mediocre or better AL teams at home versus NL teams. The AL was stomping on the NL at home for many years, due to the DH. The AL teams had mostly signed a strong hitter for the DH position, and the NL teams had to use some shitty reserve. Even the pitching was affected, as NL pitchers had grown accustomed to the pitcher's spot being a "break" in the lineup, and this did not exist in AL home games. Anyway, this evaporated once the universal DH came.
I feel like degen betting colorado ML here, should I?
2 and 0 on todge picks with phoenix pending and they are scoring nuuuuuummmmmbies todge i might be in love with you that philly game was close
3 and 0 todge you sonofa bitch
also in your infinite wisdom can you explain how clippers were laying 9 plus