Dodged the Bobby Miller trap tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
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Dodged the Bobby Miller trap tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Nice hit San.
I explained my recent streak as:
Braves won by 8. Astros by 4. Rangers by 4.A’s off. ChiSox lost by 2. Az lost by 1, which I’ve went ML against as they aren’t nearly the dogs the others are. I chose one of the only 2 possible losers on my list and I never back philly, so didn’t ever consider that one, and the run line would have been good on every other.Quote:
I’d guess 15 of the 20 bets is betting the Braves, Astros, and Texas to cover, or betting against the A’s, Royals, Pirates, Chisox. Also was betting Az to cool off.
I’m just betting against the tankers to lose by 2 every day and they’re living up to their futility
Can’t win them all. I only care if I lose by 1 betting a ton of plus money run lines. My bet was a loser with the juice and when I’m wrong, rarely matters. Not never, but not often enough to think the ML is value this time of year unless it’s a -120 lean coinflip. Tribe, SF, Az, those are ML teams most nights. Run lines with the best and worst is value late imo.
Every team loses 60 games even if great. I’m convinced post all star break, just betting against the shit teams is super profitable. I don’t have your ability to handicap spots. You know these teams way better than me.
Just a general trend I noticed after ASB for last 3 years when I was betting Dodger run lines every night and Tribe to just win last couple years. Just blanket betting against the bottom of the barrel would be optimal, but don’t feel like having that many bets a night. I’d love to dig in and compile how profitable what I’m advocating would be if I blanketed it every night. Pretty convinced it is as I’ve struggled early every year and finished really strong. Will continue tmrw right back on the horse
I was chatting with some really sharp kids in discord. Their bonafides and records are beyond reproach. Joan Adon (Nationals) came up. I said that he reminded me of the Johnny Cash song “A Boy Named Sue”
The Zoomer Millenials (majority of the crew) went deathly silent and now I’m getting pilloried by the kids
Queer nation. I forget sometimes it ain’t PFA out there
There is a DK 100% profit boost for MLB today. If you are new it can be up to $25 I’m told. Take a look.
Should ask the kids if they have ever heard of Dummy Hoy, or any of the other 15 or so old ballplayers nicknamed Dummy, and when they say no explain that nickname was because they were deaf.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Watch brains explode.
We on Syndergaard Cleveland -155 BCR? How crazy is that? Poor Druff
Actually Kopech F5 plus money is prolly the correct play (avoid that trash trash CWS bullpen)
Edit
Parlay Cleveland & Mil or Tex or Reds….. Mil is the correct choice if you need help. Bailey Falter Pirates oh my bad
I’m having fun with this card tbh. Dumpster diving for fun
My wife has a $25 limit. I keep forgetting I signed her up. She has $200 and never deposited. I cleared her free bets and ignored her. DK had no problem with spouses at same IP. I askedQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Reds/Brewers parlay -105 with boost +190
Brewers Corbin Burnes vs Pirates Bailey Falter 0-7 fresh from the minors.
She owes me big time. I actually had her sign in and place the bet. This indemnified me somehow against any future complaints and ridicule. We will see.
Padres Snell F5 vs Dodgers but 1000% bet Dodgers (live) bullpen when Snell leaves. Snell never lasts long.
Red Sox -115 vs Jays
Sox using opener bum Schrieber then Chris Murphy bulk. Vs Berrios.
Did I already cover this?
Anyhoo, was originally Pivetta for Sawks.
I’m ok with this. Jays 9-23 vs tough AL East. Sawks murder Berrios historically. Jays can’t hit LHP (Murphy LHP). Jays missing Bichette and his hair. Jays are banned. I’ll flip vs the public
Oakland (Blackburn) vs San Francisco (Stripling) - over 8.5 -115
:fail2
Sorry. I’ve been extraordinarily busy, hence the baseball betting being my only vice as I don’t have time to go play poker or engage in any of my other degeneracy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I legit would have said hell no, just because that first outing was absolute fools gold. He put up like 5 plus innings with an earned run in his first start for us, but gave up-I’m kidding you not- probably five towering warning track shots that I thought were all gone off the bat.
I’ll bet Allen, Bibbe, Williams, and even a Curry bullpen mix and match game for Tribe if they’re not playing a good team. I want no part of Thor or whomever else they start in the 5 slot atm.
That opinion has nothing to do with being down 5-2. I actually only bet one game today with Rays -1.5 for Civale’s first start and lost it outright, so I didn’t do any better than that game. But I want nothing to do with Thor and he seems worthless and made of glass. He’s a few month signing and hopefully gone.
Soccer really still is the gayest sport ever. I had no money on this game, but jfc. I try to get into this dumb game, and everytime I do it's a fucking 0-0 barnburner.
Cut the teams in half, put them on skates, let them fight.
Now I Am Become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds
:fail2
Guess I chose the wrong week to stop sniffing glueQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
Im 100% confidant if you gave me 24 hours and a $300 uber eats budget i could convene a panel of fellow football fans and solve the college football conference issues.
One Major circuit consisting of four 16 team conferences broken down by two divisions
One minor circuit of 64 teams set up the same way.
Both have a 8 team playoff with the first round being the two division winners.
While the playoffs are going down the two bottom teams in each major circuit division play and the loser gets relegated to the minor circuit. The minor circuit conference winner gets promoted to major.
Literally solves all the major problems.
Generally I'm a big fan of the promotion/relegation model, and this is probably the one American sport where it would actually work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I think the only hiccup in that proposal is the procedure used to select the bottom two teams.
Had a 3 in a row loss streak for first time since all star break. Had Dodgers Ml at + 120 yesterday. Bet it at the sportsbook local to me, which amazingly allows you to bet anonymously and doesn’t require tax information unless you win a bet 30x your wager. Shocked how this is flying under radar. Barstool within Hollywood property if you have one. It’s a racino and it’s like they’re using horse racing rules. No app. No cards. Keep your perks and free $5 bet. No license, nothing. Every sharp should rent an apartment as they can’t curb you if they don’t know you.
Was down 5-0 and 3-0 on ML Dodgers yesterday and run line Texas and got lucky on what seemed losers.
Love Braves run line. Keller has gotten beat up by lesser teams recently. The first I was at versus Cle.
Somewhere around even money to -108 around. I’ll see what it is when I get there. Love this bet. Have to make sure not to toss baby with bath water and go overboard. I don’t run great on lead pipe locks.
And I never mean to add faggot emojis to any post. There is a safari glitch on phone that makes me edit posts and I click them by accident. Being a grown man, I feel obliged to explain myself.
Had to lay -109.
Cashed $2200 ticket on dodgers game. Cashed $2410 ticket on Rangers as I had to lay -141 and hated it all the way until the end and it won. No license. No card. Have no idea who anyone is. Baffling to me in a world of curbing players. Not that I’m good enough to curb, but place has at least $5k limits on baseball and $1k on props. At least. I’ve bet those.
The Braves were the cause of the greatest transfer of wealth since the Pandemic. -300 and parlays galore on a crappy slate. No doubt Strider was perceived as safe.
Strider was 9.5 strikeouts but was juiced -135 to the under and I backed off. Everyone was auto betting the over cause it’s Strider and his ‘stache. I’m normally a Strider walk prop guy. The whole thing was spooky and I was fortunately creeped off of anything Braves
My moral turpitude clause prohibited me from live Dodgers. Hate isn’t free. Oh well.
Here’s one
Parlay Matt Olsen & Cody Bellinger to each get a hit -105.
My history with Bellinger makes this ironic but he’s been earning since he left the Dodgers. I’m a practical man
Waiting for lineups
I have Sawks boost 25% and I like Cutter Crawford. -154.
Phillies I’m looking at right now
Castellanos (bs Williams) Realmuto (bs Williams) Schwarber (vs Gray), Turner (vs Gray)
Otherwise I’m waiting on lineups.
BallParkPal. Open it up. Poke around Matchups and the like. Absorb it. Learn it, know it, be it. It will take time. Do it once a day. I shan’t mention it again. Teach a man to fish.
Let this be your guiding light
1 Braves
2 Orioles
3 Rays
4 Dodgers
5 Rangers
6 Astros
Lol laziness BCR. You will actually enjoy it with time. Palm to forehead things will pop up.
Someone said they saw China on a podcast talking wagering. Dunno where or why.
A surprising number PFA posters are sought out interviews about gambling. There is a difference when you are asked vs noisy social media self flagellation
Sanlmar: A wonderful end around legalized wagering
Is this rare with live book? Like I already had players card for every legal live book I’ve ever used before this place. But this place has no poker-or table games. Just a racetrack, slots, and sportsbook. I just read Daly talk about getting cut off and collared so many places and I’m firing with them having no idea who I am. Cashing 4 figure tickets with no license multiple times last few weeks. I might need to download a cash app for the prop bettors here to send me action when they get cut off. I fired $1k on an NBA points+rebounds prop with no issues. I’ve seen guys fire strike out props for similar.
Sounds like a dopey operation. The kind of place that is just copying lines from somewhere else. The kind of place where you have your phone open and look for line discrepancies and pick them off. Maybe arb but in this day of 20 cent legal lines that’s rarely worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Mid day pitching change or whatever.
Back in the day books learned who you were even without player cards and id’s. But again, you may have found a place that is pure management apathy. I’d keep it to yourself.
When we find a true edge - we are supposed to smash it. I’m a nitty unit guy but I try to remember this advice and grow a pair when opportunity presents.
Sounds like how online wagering worked around ~15-20 years ago.
Definitely a book that could get pounded + go under. And at some point they will cut you off but they give you a long leash. Assume you'll up your amounts and/or hit a dry spell.
Likely a good idea to keep cashing out and hit their bad lines hard while you still can.
Congrats on your wins, keep it going.
It was just kind of a happy accident. When I saw barstool, I assumed I could use barstool app and bet live and whatever while there. But manager told me they are not yet online and they have been there a year. Like you can bet barstool app in Ohio or at this barstool place, but not like bet on app and collect there or whatever. I don’t get it, but ended up lucky as I didn’t sign up for app and this place doesn’t have a clue who I am. Ohio went the lottery commission route with a bunch of different licenses. Like you can bet at stores anonymously, but you have to scan license in tray, so it isn’t anonymous with a max of $700 a week. This is higher license, but treating it like horse wagers or slot jackpots where you have Barstool limits, but only need ID if it’s 30x wager, which is never unless you’re betting 8 team parlays or golf long shots. I just find it amazing this place couldn’t put a name on me, and don’t even ask you if you want to sign up. Just take ticket, and pay you. It’s definitely some licensing quirk, apathy, but also that jackpot mindset of horse racing and slots. They view it the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarSounds like a dopey operation. The kind of place that is just copying lines from somewhere else. The kind of place where you have your phone open and look for line discrepancies and pick them off. Maybe arb but in this day of 20 cent legal lines thatÂ’s rarely worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Mid day pitching change or whatever.
Back in the day books learned who you were even without player cards and idÂ’s. But again, you may have found a place that is pure management apathy. IÂ’d keep it to yourself.
When we find a true edge - we are supposed to smash it. IÂ’m a nitty unit guy but I try to remember this advice and grow a pair when opportunity presents.
Living right my friends…Never in doubt!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Glad to hear it. We are entering the final days of the golden age of legalized sports betting. If you have the ability to get this action down and you are able to identify winning angles (or partner with someone who can) than take advantage of this situation for as long as you can. It wont last. This isn't a fair and open marketplace. You are heads up vs a corporation that thinks they have the right to not lose. They aren't your freind. All they want is everyones money.
Pound this out for as much as you can. I promise you in 3 years you will look back and say “remember when”.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I saw it. They kind of disrespected him a bit on the show if you ask me.
I think we may start to see a little more of China in the public eye in the months/years to come.
Give me hatton up top, hovland right behind
I literally just see this article after reading your post.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Glad to hear it. We are entering the final days of the golden age of legalized sports betting. If you have the ability to get this action down and you are able to identify winning angles (or partner with someone who can) than take advantage of this situation for as long as you can. It wont last. This isn't a fair and open marketplace. You are heads up vs a corporation that thinks they have the right to not lose. They aren't your freind. All they want is everyones money.
Pound this out for as much as you can. I promise you in 3 years you will look back and say “remember when”.
Racino is owned by Penn. I assume this eventually changes it and the sportsbook will be as good as ESPN afternoon TV and I’ll want to shoot myself in the head.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/busin...spn/index.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
As evidenced by BCR’s article the speed of change is astonishing. I never forecast this and I was as pessimistic as anyone you know. Correctly so.
I was in SouthPoint just after VSIN put up the booth in the sportsbook. I remember asking what that was all about. First round of MLB playoffs Oct 2017.
3 years is very generous. AI is about to hit too on both sides of the counter. Edges so tiny. Lines so efficient. Customer targeting so sad.
I hope China has made his nut or will soon. The future is wagering-tainment not creating tickets. Maybe that’s what you meant by, “we will see more of him”. It’s about views
Isn’t Disney trying to spin off ESPN? Hook me up with a podcast or analysis of this deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRI literally just see this article after reading your post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Racino is owned by Penn. I assume this eventually changes it and the sportsbook will be as good as ESPN afternoon TV and I’ll want to shoot myself in the head.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/busin...spn/index.html
ESPN snag the MLB broadcast rights next somehow?
Matt Olson & Cody Bellinger 1+ hit parlay -105 (FD) cashed yesterday.
Let’s do
Yelich Milw & Cody Bellinger Cubs 1+ parlay +100 (FD) today
Yelich vs terrible Rockies Flexen (ERA & whip are too obscene to print here)
Bellinger (reborn after Dodgers) is like .540 last 7 days. WTF. He’s hit 10 of last 10:games.
I don’t believe these prices last.
Dodgers seem to own Merrill Kelly …. DBacks are imploding. Not a huge Bo Miller guy although he’s prolly serviceable against these DBacks. I’m still gonna go team LAD total 4.5 -120 …. just a play
I see the claims especially for Hatton but too short for my liking; same with a number of guys who I don’t dislike who are below or around 30/1Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I ended up going with
Sam Burns 33/1
Byeong Hun An 50/1
Harris English 70/1
Andrew Putnam 100/1
All each-way (top 7)
GL gents
I’m going light today as I don’t love anything. My run line favorites are priced crazy. Going to see the number on your hit parlay when I get there and I’ll bet it -120 or less.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Getting funky with 3 team nonsense for lunch money. Texas ML, ATl ML, and guardians game up to under 10 for +150.
Fried has been so good, I’m tempted to do something else funky like ATL -2.5 parlayed with Texas, or with your hit parlay, but I need a day with multiple lunch money bets. I’ve gotten incredibly lucky the last few nights with my bets not being winners until the very last second. Last night was beyond luck and divine intervention. I knew when that ball went down the line that stupid wall down the line gave me a shot for runner on 1st to score, and he thankfully did.
Wish I woke up early enough for Reds.
Anyway, here's the one remaining one I like:
St. Louis (Hudson) vs Tampa Bay (Beeks/bullpen) - Under 9 +100
I missed beginning of Brewers, so I had to go Bellinger and I added Matt Olsen against the righty who I expect to get beat up. Of course Yellich already got his hit. Was -102
Have silly Texas ML/Atlanta -1.5/guardians under 10 parlay for +215. I expect the Braves to beat the shit out of that kid. Almost went like -3.5, but kept it at a lunch money parlay.
This Pruitt for Oakland has looked like Pedro through 2, so we can be sweating hits later if parlay goes south early.
Well I’ll never put Olson in a hit prop again. Glad I went really small today. 3 intentional walks.
I don’t love anything again today. Using your ballparkpal app San. It likes Detroit today. According to its sims, it says they should be -139, but are +136 atm if I’m reading it correctly. I know you use it more for props and first 5 stuff. Seems value is on full game itself. Toronto is value also, but my father and his wife are up there and I don’t want to bet against him having a good day. Plus they seem to win every game he attends, not scientific, but the old man runs good. They can’t score and Syndegard is horrible though so certainly not betting on them to win.
Think I’m going Detroit ML just for the value. Doesn’t like the Braves. Doesn’t like the Astros. Both overvalued or correctly valued. Of the early games, Detroit seems the value.
Thursday 8/10:
Away Team Runs +135 (8 games)
DK
Well San, ballpark Pal steered me away from bad value and made me $700 on first try. Even got +140.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Thx sir