Jays -115 today.
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Jays -115 today.
Happy Berrios Day. He’s a live bet. You will know in the first inning which Berrios you’ll get.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
If I had to bet preflop I’d take Padres (Darvish) at even money. Berrios isn’t the auto fade he used to be, I’ll admit that.
Collect some coins to overcome your forthcoming loss.
Get involved with Sawks Bello. I am no homer but he is likely a top 5 pitcher this year in his current form.
Devers is back in. Had calf tightness.
If I wasn’t a nit I’d bet
5+K’s
Bello to earn win +135
Red Sox double result -115
I hate myself so I’m prolly gonna bet Dodgers live +200’ish.
Maybe I wait til the soft tosser Urias is finished.
Is Graham Ashcraft back? He was supposed to be my sleeper pitcher in fantasy this year. Presently he's on the free agent list, following my release of him over a month ago, and nobody has touched him. That says a lot in our very deep NL league.
But look at this numbers lately! Over his past 3 starts, he's gone at least 6 each time, allowed only one run each, and his WHIP over that span is 1.176.
Might he have finally found what he was doing wrong from April through June? Perhaps.
In any case, he's facing Ross Strpling, with even worse overall numbers than Ashcraft's, and who still doesn't seem totally recovered from injury.
The Reds scored 10 yesterday and lost to the Giants. Expect a bounceback today.
Reds (Ashcraft) -111 vs San Francisco (Stripling)
One more, starting very shortly.
Angels (Silseth) at Yankees (Rodon) - Over 9 -105 (Over 8.5 -125 ok)
LoserQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Alex Cora lifted Bello after 67 pitches and 4 innings with 3 strikeouts.
He gave up 3 homeruns and the kid had never done that in his career.
I am running so bad post Wimbledon. Everything I touch dies.
Ashcraft pitched well. Gonna try to get him back this weekend.
Precarious 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th.
Angels/Yankees have 8 runs through 6. Two chances to lock it up already, but Yankees struck out with bases loaded in top 6, and Angels couldn't convert 1st and 2nd in bottom 6th. Favorite to win, but not a big favorite. Could be my first tie of the season, too, if only 1 run scores.
Hopefully I can squeeze out a 2-0 here.
Funny way for the Angels bet to end for me.
After a solo HR by the Yankees in the top of the 8th which locked up at least a tie for me, the Angels got two walks in the bottom of the inning.
Then Ward hit a fly ball to left which looked catchable, but drifted, and just barely landed fair. The left fielder, in attempt to catch it, accidentally deflected it into the stands after it bounced, making it a ground rule double, and automatically scored the runner on second.
7-3 Angels, and I can turn it off. 2-0 day. I took a little break from MLB betting due to a few factors -- the All Star break, the WSOP Main, and not liking any games on a few days. However, nice to see I'm 3-0 since my return, including yesterday's +186. Cincy scratched out a 3-2 victory in the other one.
:yes
Have a ball in Liverpool Daly. Gl
Early games, 9:35am PT
Cincinnati (Abbott) -111 vs San Francisco (Cobb)
Milwaukee (Burnes) -106 at Philadelphia (T. Walker)
:uhhuhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Worst picks I’ve had all year. I’m done for the week. Can’t watch anymore of this shit. What I can confidently say is I would expect some easy pin placements tomorrow. If they put them all tucked it’s tougher to catch Harmon and you can have sort of a conveyor belt going on if he can keep his nerve.
Honestly, they’ll probably even try to make pins fit a right handlers ball flight. I’ll be routing for Tommy. I bet him a lot when I first started handicapping golf. I probably wouldn’t have had the actual winner in either tournament this week regardless, But betting a favorite and watching him play his worst round of the year…that sucks.
Straka is interesting. So so streaky. But I don’t think I’m going to pull the trigger on anyone tbh. But I’ll be routing for Fleetwood.
GL
Starting soon:
Kevin Gausman's side hurts, and he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks. Logan Gilbert is inconsistent, and looked shaky in his last outing.
You don't need much to break a 7.5 total these days.
Toronto (Gausman) at Seattle (Gilbert) - Over 7.5 -110
Starting later:
Detroit (M. Manning) +119 vs San Diego (Wolf)
Manning has been one of the few bright spots on this Tigers team. Jackson Wolf has pitched well at AA, but has never played higher than that, prior to today.
I’m gonna break with the rules and applaud Druff’s picks. Boffem. I smiled reading each one.
I’ve been tailing many too since ASG but didn’t want to poison the well - until now.
See if you’re running good enuff to fade this post
Are Padres gonna be sellers? They’ve been such a crazy story. So bad.
Thanks. Can't do worse than 1-1 now. Seattle game already 9 runs in the 5th.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Go Tigers (hard to say that).
Uh huh
Bummer. I never checked the weather. We need Manning more than Padres need The Wolf
I might just cash out with some profit at the end of the inning and move on. I know it’s not EV
Correct regarding Manning and Wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarBummer. I never checked the weather. We need Manning more than Padres need The Wolf
I might just cash out with some profit at the end of the inning and move on. I know it’s not EV
The value of this pick was largely due to a AA rookie on the mound for the Padres (on the road, no less), versus a guy who has been surprisingly solid for the Tigers. If this turns into a bullpen game, the edge goes to SD.
Don't beat yourself up about the weather. If you look at the radar in the area, there are little patches of thunderstorms, and one just happens to be over the ballpark. This wasn't a matter of a major rainstorm being forecasted over the Detroit area. It's not. There was a good chance tonight would feature no rain, but we ended up getting rain.
Oh well. Hopefully when it gets going again, Detroit can drive home those runners on 2nd and 3rd, and we can have a decent cushion.
Regarding the Padres possibly being sellers... I don't see it happening.
I took at tour at their ballpark in 2010. They weren't a good team, and this tour was in the offseason. The tour was very cheap and came with a free SD hat (which was more expensive by itself than the tour, by a wide margin!)
But it turned out this was a backdoor way to sell season tickets. No sales spiel, but we were told multiple times how to contact them if interested.
We also saw an actual sales spiel taking place at the same time, and heard about some free dinner party for interested people.
They want to field a good team in San Diego, and they want to keep the season ticket holders interested in renewing -- even in the modern day of a lot of those being bought by scalpers. Hard to believe they will dump these players and become a rebuilding team, after all the fanfare about the spending spree.
So I think they're staying the course. That's my prediction.
Same with the Mets, I think.
Heard chatter on the Mets Sawks radio broadcast about Verlander possibly going to Giants.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
There is so much noise … floated by who knows who and why
So frustrating.
Manning indeed did not survive the rain delay. A shit reliever coughed up 5 runs after Tigers got up 3-0 after 2.
Exactly what I was worried about.
That dick shaped thunderstorm really went right up my ass on this one.
Englebert lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I hit the eject button thankfully
Yeah 7-3 now. Awful.
I'm convinced I win this one if no rain.
Oh well. Had to lose eventually.
Englebert gave up 9. Wow. Why leave him in to flail like that, even with the game a lost cause?
At least I can stop checking the score now.
Morning games
Dodgers (Sheehan) -115 at Texas (Ma. Perez)
Cubs (Taillon) +107 vs St. Louis (Montgomery)
Milwaukee (Teheran) +139 vs Atlanta (Elder)
One more
San Francisco (Alexander) at Washington (Gore) - over 9 -115
Winner winner chicken dinner!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
You lost us at Ed SheeranQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
There isn’t a person who follows baseball that isn’t calling him Ed.
Very odd spot to violate your house rule. Everything ok?
Fun game between Toronto (Berrios) & LAD (Grove). Two of our best cappers Simpdog and Druff are delusional about their respective teams and that’s fun.
Gonna be hot and humid with poor air quality in LA. Ball should be flying.
LAD smashes righties and is 2nd in MLB in drawing walks.
I dunno if another one of those Sawks/Dodgers swaps, JD Martinez, is gonna be in lineup. He was out yesterday. I’d like to see him.
LAD Grove is another over rated pitching prospect (over rated is the LAD team logo). He’s gonna get smashed.
I have this thing over 10.
I’m parlaying combinations of SDP (Yu Darvish) -1.5 and Jays/Dodger alternate totals (7.5 & 8.5) these each yield +155 & +185. Traditionally, we skip home team (SDP) run lines cause we lose an at bat bottom 9 but with Darvish vs lame ass Pittsburg we make an exception.
It is important here to express our disgust with the Padres. They should be sellers cause this ain’t working. As well, the entire NL West is currently imploding recently. Preseason I was excited at the prospect of this traditionally weak division rebounding but good grief. It’s important to the game that the NL West show some heart. I bet a Padres to have the best record in baseball. So bad.
Anyhoo…
Being a nit I did some SDP ML (-250) with alt LAD totals too.
You could just bet the over 9.5 which I feel is a good play but I don’t know what balls are being used or the LA humidor situation. Weirdness is definitely happening post ASG.
These are two ploppie games so I chose to bet overnight and try to get some CLV.
Mookie Betts is all over social media and podcasts. Apparently he has his own podcast as well. Immediately, I’m reminded of that other Dodger podcaster & sex offender Bauer. What few glimpses of Betts I’ve seen I’ve kinda been turned off by a smugness. It just might be me being repulsed by Dodger arrogance without results. Freeman has a nice touch here.
I hear Giolito’s name and the Dodgers. There’s a guy with an attitude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk BucketWinner winner chicken dinner!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
Holy shit!
Nice hit
Thanks pal hope you enjoyed your trip? Other than the lovely Sunday weather I mean, lol!Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Little early to start counting money on these but off to a great start.
Strider pulled into the lead last night. I expect that to stick going forward (adjusted for equal amount of starts). All about making the 31 starts now.
Official Bed Shit on the two ROY bets.
Fortunately we have this to look forward too.
Don’t be afraid to collect strider walk prop money tho. He’s often available at over 1.5. Snell and Senga are two auto bets. From top top guys.
I’m a walk junky. Rooting against human achievement is satisfying
Strider will have 9 strikeouts on 60 pitches or some madness.
You got the strikeout but I got the RoY.
Got punched in the face by MLB yesterday.
San Francisco couldn't score against the LOL Washington pitching staff, and that game finished 6-1. Over lost.
Atlanta was Atlanta and had an 8th-inning comeback, overcoming Milwaukee's thin 2-1 lead. Lost.
Dodgers were up 4-0 but their pitching woes continued, and they lost 8-4. Lost.
Only success story was the Cubs, who broke out to a 7-0 lead, and never looked back. Jameson Taillon is somehow pitching well last few outings, and should be watched for betting purposes.
So I went 1-3 and lost a bit less than 2 units. Ugh.
That makes me 1-4 since rolling off 6 wins in a row. To be fair, none of these 4 losses were bad picks. The Detroit pick was going well until the rain delay, the Dodgers were up 4-0 to start, the Brewers were up in the 8th inning (and for most of the game), and the Nationals scored 6 runs when I had over 9.
All I can do is make good picks, and hope the luck is with me.
Stand by.
Let's look at old Dodgers friend Kenta Maeda.
He sports a troublesome 5.10 ERA through 9 starts. At age 35, is he done?
Not so fast. A look at his individual games shows a horrendous 10-run beatdown in 3 innings on April 26. Turned out he had a bad elbow, pitched anyway, and then was out for 2 months recovering.
Let's look at his 5 stats since returning. All have been good except a surprisingly bad one in Oakland on July 14, where he was wild. Against the Mariners, whom he's facing today, he allowed just 1 hit in 5 innings, with zero walks. He finally tired in the 6th and coughed up a 2-run HR, but otherwise pitched great.
Luis Castillo seems to be going great overall, with a 3.04 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. But let's look a bit closer again. In 5 of his past 6 starts, he's coughed up 2 HR. This is starting to become an issue.
Minnesota has won 8 of 10, and is starting to pull away in the tight AL Central. They are 29-22 at home.
I believe this game will go to the Twins.
Minnesota (Maeda) -110 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)
Ed Sheeran can’t throw a slider for a strike to save his life. Doesn’t prevent him from trying tho. Dodgers gotta let their starters stay out there no matter what cause pitching depth problemsQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bad pick Bad.
I actually took Dodgers today with Bo Miller. It’s so bad it might be good. Bo really is not that bad recently. Ploppies are scared by simple numbers. Toronto bullpen is exhausted and largely unavailable
As soon as it started, I realized the over was the proper play with that one. I was too focused upon Perez being shitty and the Dodgers hitting well. Barnes being in the lineup didn't help, either. Automatic out.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarEd Sheeran can’t throw a slider for a strike to save his life. Doesn’t prevent him from trying tho. Dodgers gotta let their starters stay out there no matter what cause pitching depth problemsQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bad pick Bad.
Does he still have a negative WAR?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffAs soon as it started, I realized the over was the proper play with that one. I was too focused upon Perez being shitty and the Dodgers hitting well. Barnes being in the lineup didn't help, either. Automatic out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You can have Kike back btw. I’ll drive him to the airport
2 outs, bottom 9th. Nobody on. 2-1 Twins.
Base hit. Then Kolten Wong, of all people, smacks a HR. 3-2 Mariners. Ugh.
Fortunately the Twins got 2 doubles in the bottom of the 9th, tying it, but failing to win in a walkoff.
They got out of the top of the 10th with the phantom runner on 2nd, and then scored in the bottom half.
All's well that ends well.
Two games today, one early, one later this afternoon.
St. Louis (Flaherty) +127 at Arizona (Gallen)
Zac Gallen has given up 10 HR since June 4
Detroit (Lorenzen) -104 vs Angels (P. Sandoval)
Patrick Sandoval has walked 9 in last 3 starts combined, Michael Lorenzen has given up 0 ER in last 3 starts