That's 6 wins in a row for me in MLB, dating back to 6/17.
Hopefully I can have a nice second half of the season.
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That's 6 wins in a row for me in MLB, dating back to 6/17.
Hopefully I can have a nice second half of the season.
Threw a couple darts for the Open golf to wet my beak before the odds get cut
Rickie Fowler 33/1
Denny McCarthy 150/1
Good job, as soon as I saw your post last night I knew it was a winner, didn’t have to watch the game pal. I would never think or look to bet that myself. I would bet full game if anything just for viewing preferences. Silly mistake huh pal? Keep up the good work brotherQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am disappointed in myself for sleeping through the return of the pfatso -- Brandon Pfaadt.
He's a top D-backs prospect who just can't win in MLB. This was his second stint in the Majors, and it went about as well as expected. You could have gotten a +107 on the Rays, of all teams. Can you imagine? Easy 6-1 victory for the Rays, of course.
Here's a pick starting in 15 minutes -- a battle of two pitchers with inconsistent careers, but both of whom have done well recently.
Light wind blowing out of Wrigley.
Cubs (K. Hendricks) -101 vs Philadelphia (T. Walker)
Cubs down 3-1, blew two big scoring opportunities in 4th and 5th
:gay2
Okay, I missed fading the Pfaatso, but I am going to fade another struggling pitcher today -- Mike Soroka.
Soroka once had a great career ahead of him. Today, he's a big question mark. An injury shut him down for almost 3 years, and he returned to the Braves rotation earlier this season. He was horrible, and was demoted back to the minors.
After 19 good innings in the minors, he's BACK to face the Marlins in Atlanta.
The Marlins have Bryan Hoeing today, a converted reliever who has been fairly good in 2023. In fact, he threw 5 hitless innings in his last outing, and held the Blue Jays scoreless for 4 innings in his previous outing.
The Braves are averaging 5.5 runs per game, and have an explosive offense. I wouldn't be surprised if they come back to win the game, but I see Hoeing outpitching Soroka, who has not yet shown he is Major League ready since his injury, so I'm going to first-5 it. You still get a nice price -- only 7 points off the full game price.
Miami (Hoeing) +155 at Atlanta (Soroka) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Texas (Jon Gray) vs Houston (R. Blanco) - Under 8.5 -105
Jon Gray appears to be BACK, after getting clobbered by Toronto on June 18th. He had a blister, so that probably explained it, as that start followed a rare complete game against St. Louis. He went out and threw a nice start against the Yankees last time, showing that he's feeling better.
Roniel Blanco has been mediocre this year, and was converted on June 1 to be a starter. He did pitch fairly well against the Dodgers, allowing just 2 hits in 6 innings, though both were HR, so that hurt his line. Blanco did manage 13 strikes on his slider alone in that start, which was encouraging.
I was deciding whether to go with a full game u8.5 -105 or a 5-inning u4.5 +100. I decided to go full game, as Blanco is a bit of a wildcard, and I'd prefer to have the ability to win this if he gets hit hard and Gray pitches well. The 4.5 +100 first 5 isn't a bad pick, though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
YOU SHOULD HAVE STAYED IN BED
Well this Marlins pick is a huge dud.
Hopefully the under in Texas wins later.
TENNIS PICK
TOMMY PAUL -1.5 SETS +110
Well, it's not as bad anymore. Soroka finally failed like I suspected, and gave up 3 in the 3rd, plus gave up a single, but it ended there. 5-3 Braves in bottom 3. Still not in good shape, given it's a first-5, but we can possibly still pull into a tie here if we get lucky.
GO BACK TO BED
CARLOS IS NOT WINNING ON GREEN
JOKER MIGHT BUT HIS VALUE IS SLIM AT -189
WIMBLEDON WINNER.- ZVERVER +3000
MDEVDEDVED IS STRUGGING - HE'LL MAKE A RUN BUT HE'S NOT RIGHT
ANDY MURRAY AT +4000 IS REALLY REALLY SLIM FOR A GUY THAT IS OLD. BET HIM, BIG
I need to get to work on Wimbledon. MLB is draining my wagering enthusiasm - it’s such a grindQuote:
Originally Posted by Sam Snead
I did my first “double result” today (DK). The F5 and Full game together is a double result. Cubs DR was my bet. I see double results are trending in an effort to skirt the juice for a heavy favorite.
What some are noticing is that the double result pricing does not keep pace with money line changes. There was huge movement in the Cubs price this morning and the double result did not change. Honestly, I bet it blind for value. Didn’t watch either.
ZVEREV IS THE BET, TRULY. PLUS 3K.
CARLOS IS THE STAR BUT HE'S NOT READY ON GREEN.
KYRIOS DOESN'T COMMIT HIS TALENT,
SINNER QUITS. HE'S TOO BEATABLE.
ALEXANDER Z. IS MY BET
Well I was correct to eschew first 5 under 4.5 in the Texas game.
3-2 after 5, would've barely lost.
Now bottom 9, 5-3 Astros. Need that bullpen to close it out with 0 runs.
Got it.
Not my finest day of handicapping, getting blown out on the Marlins, and winning the other by 0.5 (and needing 3 full scoreless innings at the end to win), but I'll take the 1-1.
Cleveland (Bibee) +116 at Cubs (Stroman)
Betting the weak-hitting Injuns against the Cubs against Stroman, for a measly +116 in Chicago? Am I crazy?
Maybe.
Stroman got bombed last start because of a blister -- one which apparently isn't all better.
Going to big bet on the Royals based on Salamander pick. Let me fucking clear if this does not work to my favor I will not be kind to anyone.
Nicky Pipes will hate this, but time to fade the Rays.
Seattle (Kirby) +100 vs Tampa (Glasnow)
Salamander changed his color to green.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The brotherhood is small but rich, tgull. Welcome aboard
Hit 'em both easily. Well, Cleveland isn't over yet, but it's 6-0 in the 8th. Stroman gave up 5 in 5 innings.
:uhhuh
I was a mess yesterday, is is yesterday yet? I dunno, family out of town on some wedding I did not want to go. Drinking since 8am, bloody marys and so on. Not good. Lost 4 bets in a row, took my entire sports book balance and pushed it in based only on this pick here by Sally. I don't think I ever bet on the Royals in my life, if I have I don't remember. Went to bed in 1st inning more like passed out. Thank you dear friend, going back to bed only up to check the score. Family home at noon, back to reality. What a pull, the fucking Royals, I literally forgot they even had a team. Not sure how you found it, but thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarSalamander changed his color to green.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The brotherhood is small but rich, tgull. Welcome aboard
Sunday afternoon picks
Mets (Peterson) -126 vs San Francisco (Stripling)
Angels (Detmers) -116 vs Arizona (Gallen)
Trout and Ohtani both hit solo shots, but it was a 3-run blast by Mickey Moniak (remember him?) which did the most damage for the Angels, and they won 5-2.
This makes me 10-2 since June 16.
Whether I end up 11-2 depends upon whether the Mets can avoid shitting the bed today, which is a big ask. Game begins in 40 mins or so.
This season has had one bad run from May 11 to 27, where I went 6-14 and lost 7.83 units. Other than that 17-day stretch, I've consistently won during the first half of 2023 MLB.
good 3rd inning
Mets are so bad.
They were up 5-1 after 6. Now it's 5-4 in Top 7, and still runners on base.
Flawless performance I didn't touch the diamondbacks I have no idea how you called that but Mets was beautiful
I respectfully disagree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Snead
I think Alcaraz is the only one that has a shot to take it off Joker.
Sinner on his day is a danger but given recent form (possible injuries?) I can’t see it.
Zverev is a bottler and got pissed on by Casper Ruud at RG. Bagel and straight sets, lol
Murray can have a good run but him winning it would be a fairytale. Would love to see it, the man’s a hero.
I think women’s tennis is far more interesting/ competitive and has been for some time. I bet Muchova again pre but I fear the draw is terribly against her and Iga is a cert to be in the final. Again hope I’m wrong
Fowler pings a tournament and now 22/1. Recently he’s like a man possessed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
Hope he hasn’t shot his load too early…
Pirates All Star Mitch Keller +150 v Dodgers Grove fresh from Tulsa
Lines not confirmed but DK just opened up +150 and FD was +138
Only haters need apply.
Praying Austin Barnes behind plate again for Druff … that loser needs to catch for Manoah
If Kershaw comes thru that door I’m gonna get crushed - nope… I was right last night. Dodger whisperer again
China Grove 7.58 era is pitching. Lineup soon. Dodgers too ashamed and are dragging feet
Congrats to Sanlmar in calling the Grove thing. Not kidding, I was about to fire on tickets last night, and then I saw your post and decided to skip it.
Here's an under pick for tonight, starting in about half an hour.
Joe Ryan pitched a masterful 3-hitter CG against Boston, then got bombed against the Braves. First off, it's not shameful to get bombed by the Braves and their relentless offense, but it's also not uncommon to pitch poorly after a CG nowadays. It's not 1988 anymore, and pitchers simply aren't used to going that long. Ryan is now well rested (he only went 3 frames against Atlanta), and he's facing an offense which is the opposite of that of the Braves -- a Royals team which is the 2nd-worst in baseball (only ahead of the A's), and that's only after somehow battering the Dodgers recently.
His opponent, Austin Cox, is a reliever who won't go long, but has pitched well, aside from a poor outing last time against the Injuns.
Expect a low scoring affair from these teams with anemic offenses.
Kansas City (Cox) at Minnesota (J. Ryan) - Under 8.5 +100
Well, this isn't good. Neither pitcher is looking that sharp in this KC game. Neither looks awful, but not the start I'd like to see.
3-2 game through 7. Ended up not even close, 8-4 Twins.
Shitty way to see it finish. 7 runs in the final 1.5 innings. I was a big favorite to win after 7. That's the way it goes. Can't complain about runbad when you were 11-2 in past 13, prior to this loss.
Couldn’t resist Sofia Kenin for Wimbledon at 25/1
I think there’s value there given how she performed yesterday and the half of the draw she’s in. Iga not confident on grass
The Wimbledon weather is just killing me. All these suspended games. I got stuff hanging for two days. I’m looking to make some picks and I just can’t get involved. I don’t need any more variance in my life.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
Fun fun MLB card. Obv the hater in me jumps right to the Dodgers.
Dodgers Bobby Miller last 3 games 9.39 ERA, .404 WOBA, 1.89 WHIP, 5.18 FIP. I know you eyeing that new Rolex but Pirates (Bidu) and Pirates bats despite yesterday so so bad. Pirates last 30 days are 30th vs RHP.
Dodgers bullpen numbers are much improved recently despite yesterday.
I’m trying real hard to be the shepherd but I don’t think I can target Dodgers today despite the dumb Miller/Dodger $.
Consider targeting Kodai Senga Mets at this price vs CWS Lance Lynn. The same dumb Dodger money gonna look at Lynn’s name and auto fire. Maybe you wait and you get a free cheese pizza and large drink with ploppie line movement
Saw the Dodgers and thought of Todd this morning. Make some history Todd and Tyde.
I forgot spunk,
DraftKings had a 50% Wimbledon live bet profit boost. $50 max yesterday. I love betting game to game live. Free money. I hate that term but it was true.
I hate legalized wagering. Poor spreads and taxes. But damn, the infinite options (derivatives) and profit boosts keep ya entertained. I swear every day I find some new angle I never thought of before. Pitcher to get the win instead of betting a double result or runline is my latest jam.
I’m gonna confess stuff like the Wimbledon boost gets me to open DraftKings and I get lazy about line shopping. They know what they are doing. I stay on DraftKings. Legalized books log you off for inactivity so quickly it’s annoying. DK leaves you open much longer than most.
DraftKings in particular - they are brilliant. Every damn detail is executed in a spectacular fashion. I just realized their home office is in a Boston building I was involved in during construction too.
I have spent more time in my life hating casino stocks than the Dodgers. That said and I’ve said it before - I hold DKNG stock. It’s been great and I think it is a forever hold.
I still hate Wynn and they took it in the ass this morning. I always have a Wynn alert set and caught some of the plunge.
Mass residents got free money if they signed up before the books went online. WynnBet was one. That site was so bad - I think they were late opening too. I just realized I have never used that site for months. Despite the free money - in order to withdraw you have to make some token deposit. That’s never gonna happen with Wynn. Keep the money. So bad.
Saw DeSantis got in bed with the Indians in Florida. Sweet time to be an Indian in Florida eh? What an insane sweetheart deal. They got the concession for sports wagering in Florida. Shakes head. That deal looks so filthy from a distance. You cannot tell me there was no arrangement in a back room.
Despite the grift it looks like the tax rate is 15% in Florida. Not the worst by a long shot. Not the best either. Figured the state and the Indians both taking a cut it would be worse. We will see how the Federal Bureau of Indian Affairs and all that rule on this. Reminds me of the Pequot and the first Indian casino in America, Foxwoods. Read more than one book about how that came to be. Highly recommend
Haha yeah so much for the usual “SanImar special” weather fade. It’s been very disappointing, glad I didn’t go over for it this year
I’ve just got the 2 outright bets so far this time around but I’ve been known to dabble in tennis live wagering… in fact last year I made my money betting Rybakina a set down in the final
No DraftKings this side of the pond my dear sir, but I have also found bookie promotions to often offer +EV spots
Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer)
Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)
Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 innings
4-0 Braves in top of 1st and can't cover over 6 in 5 innings. Tons of chances blown.
Washington sucks and is down 5-1.
Yankees about to blow their lead.
:gay