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I'm tempted to do both, though I admit that Browns spread or ML is superior to the total.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
I hate betting on super low totals like these because there's little room for error. But yeah it's still tempting.
Also considering Jets ML and Baltimore under.
My alarm will go off in like 6 hours, and its like 50/50 if i wake up to watch my stupid team. Wentz behind a AAA O-Line isnt really fun viewing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'm tempted to do both, though I admit that Browns spread or ML is superior to the total.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
I hate betting on super low totals like these because there's little room for error. But yeah it's still tempting.
Also considering Jets ML and Baltimore under.
KOC, despite all the talking heads jerking him off as a "quarterback whisperer", has so far been piss poor when actually modifying a game plan based off of....you know, players available. I fully expect to see JJ and Addison running fucking 15-yard crossing patterns that take forever to develop, while Wentz just gets annihilated in the pocket.
But yeah, no starting LG, C, RT, and backup C. Backup G switching to C. Lolz.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
With your list of teams taken I would have Indy circled in werk 5
Todd Ticket:
Az
Dal
TB
Hou
Ind
Daly Ticket:
Az
Dal
Sea
Hou
Ind
We wont count any other tickets that was just warm up. These are the two winners.
Rams and Arizona...... we lost a lot of teams this week.
WOW
Can you believe Arizona choked off a 21-6 lead at HOME against a horrible Tennessee team?
Man I'd be pissed if I had AZ this week.
Makes me feel better about my 0-4 betting day.
All they had to do is fumble the ball while walking in for a TD. And then intercept a pass, fumble it backwards and bat it into the endzone for Tennessee.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They literally handed that to Tennessee. Crazy
Two of my four survivor entries had AZ. 😡Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
https://x.com/AryePulliNFL/status/1974968268961030618
Did he intentionally toss it, forgetting where he was?
So strange
I took a casual look at AFC north division futures, thinking maybe some value on Baltimore. Lol no.
Gotta be the first time a 1-4 team is favored to win the division period, much less when there is a 3-1 team there also
Now Buffalo goes down.
Really dodged a bullet this week with my final ticket. I was seriously considering Rams and Bills, and would have probably gone with Arizona if I hadn't already used them.
Over 7700 tickets have died since Thursday.
4,669/18,718 remain. Tomorrow's game only has 23 picks on KC, so won't matter much either way.
12,404 were standing on Wednesday, so we lost close to 2/3 of those.
Each entry now worth slightly over $4k.
Maybe time to do a ploppy selection for Week 6, and go with Green Bay against the Burrow-less Bengals.
Most of the other "good" selections are on the road.
I don't trust the Raiders (-5.5) at home vs the Titans, given how well the Titans finished off this week, and how horrendous the Raiders looked.
The only good usage of the Packers at home (we already saw how they choked on the road in week 3) would be 12/7 against the Bears, and I still have Bills to use against the Bengals that day. Burrow isn't likely to be back by 12/7.
Opinions?
Don't look now, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1.
Also Rodgers' Steelers are 3-1, Tampa is 4-1, SF is 4-1, and Indy is 4-1 (though against bad teams).
The biggest flop thus far has been Baltimore, who is 1-4, followed by KC who is 2-3.
I expected AFC South to be a shitshow, but so far they are over .500.
This is by far the most difficult decision season to date. The three "best" options (GB, LAR, PHI) all have great "usability" down the road. Denver is a potential pick but are projected to be the best possible pick a few times including next week at home vs NYG. I have used Indy already.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When you start going from TD down to -5 area you losing a lot of expected win result. Thats exactly what we get with Pit, LAV and Was, at least they all at home.
Homework will be to see if I can live with one of these 3.
Put me down for Pitt
They cut through -5.5 no mans land and have -6 -115 at bookmaker.
Im going to gamble that they can make it and that its a better move to use the 5 better situations down the line.
Please note / one of the "better situations" is the Eagles tonight.... so dodged that bullet at least.
GB doesn't have as much usability as you think.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis is by far the most difficult decision season to date. The three "best" options (GB, LAR, PHI) all have great "usability" down the road. Denver is a potential pick but are projected to be the best possible pick a few times including next week at home vs NYG. I have used Indy already.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When you start going from TD down to -5 area you losing a lot of expected win result. Thats exactly what we get with Pit, LAV and Was, at least they all at home.
Homework will be to see if I can live with one of these 3.
Their last two games were losses to the Browns and a tie with the Cowboys.
Anyway, GB only has the following usable home games coming up, besides this week: Panthers 11/2, Bears 12/7. Maybe Ravens in second-to-last week if they still have their present issues. The rest are all road games or games against teams you'd really not want to pick them.
Hopefully you didn't take Philly. I briefly considered it today, but I didn't like it for future value reasons, road reasons, and regional rivalry reasons.
Every good team has at least one choke/fail under their belt so far. I think this season it's wise to stay away from road games, as much as possible. My quick 5-ticket loss in week 3 was due to trusting 2 road teams.
I don't trust LV at all. Pitts has been better than expected, but I don't trust them either. Washington is just baffling.
I'm considering Rams, but I'm leaning Packers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGB doesn't have as much usability as you think.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Their last two games were losses to the Browns and a tie with the Cowboys.
Anyway, GB only has the following usable home games coming up, besides this week: Panthers 11/2, Bears 12/7. Maybe Ravens in second-to-last week if they still have their present issues. The rest are all road games or games against teams you'd really not want to pick them.
Hopefully you didn't take Philly. I briefly considered it today, but I didn't like it for future value reasons, road reasons, and regional rivalry reasons.
Every good team has at least one choke/fail under their belt so far. I think this season it's wise to stay away from road games, as much as possible. My quick 5-ticket loss in week 3 was due to trusting 2 road teams.
I don't trust LV at all. Pitts has been better than expected, but I don't trust them either. Washington is just baffling.
I'm considering Rams, but I'm leaning Packers.
I went Pitt. I am taking a gambol. If I survive this week my team will be miles ahead in remaining teams equity with only 34 to go (lot different situation in circa). A GB loss may very well win it for me this week, or come close.
I agree on your outlook on GB but I think on the road at Giants is a possibility of a TD fav.
Whats interesting is you specifically called out week 17. I hope Balt falls completely apart and I am the only one left with GB not picked. Week 17 is by far the most difficult week to project this season. I don't see a matchup where anyone is greater than a 5 point favorite currently. We a long way off from week 17 but i have my eye on this.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/...-b2842624.html
In other news, the sky is blue. - It would be interesting to see a breakdown of penalties called that are systematically weighted to how likely they were to affect the outcome of a game. Anyone with eyes that's not a Chiefs fans wouldn't need to see the results, but putting actual math behind it never hurts. Then realize that even wouldn't tell the full story, because arguably the biggest issue were them playing by an entirely different set of offensive holding rules (in addition to all of the other extremely conveniently timed non-calls).
I'm just so afraid to put my entire hopes upon Rodgers being competent. He's performed better than I expected thus far, but it really has the feel like the bottom can fall out ay any point. I realize that Cleveland is a mess, but is their current no-name QB much of a downgrade from Flacco?Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I went Pitt. I am taking a gambol. If I survive this week my team will be miles ahead in remaining teams equity with only 34 to go (lot different situation in circa). A GB loss may very well win it for me this week, or come close.
I agree on your outlook on GB but I think on the road at Giants is a possibility of a TD fav.
Whats interesting is you specifically called out week 17. I hope Balt falls completely apart and I am the only one left with GB not picked. Week 17 is by far the most difficult week to project this season. I don't see a matchup where anyone is greater than a 5 point favorite currently. We a long way off from week 17 but i have my eye on this.
Anyway, I'm still deciding.