Imagine the small talkQuote:
Originally Posted by devidee
America! Fuck yeah!
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Imagine the small talkQuote:
Originally Posted by devideeAmerica! Fuck yeah!
how about that dow?
great stuff.
its weird because all these pundits are saying the dollar is on fire, so why arent they listening to the Stable Genius Posse when they explain on 8th tier alt right shithole forums that everything is actually great?
Is the meager dip in ur heavily leveraged 401k the reason why you've been draftking flaking
I really hate seeing this for u my man
MLB is the gay are u kidding me
Bro it's all we got during this God forsaken time of the year
Tine & Warren giving a big foam finger to the idea of profitQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Condolences on your 401k Tine. I guess that’s another thread.
What I really wanted to ask was this:
Do you think Trump nurses the China trade issue thru the election. His new “wall”. It fits the populist narrative.
I think it plays beautifully. Which is to say there exists no motive to resolve this issue.
Bonus question:
The Hong Kong deal is more important to us than the news cycle allows.
China MUST have free trade routes - unencumbered water access/travel.
Gonna get messy.
Date Line: Foreigners Influence U.S. Elections.
Russia shot and partially wounded.
China can snuff you out
See how popular Trump is as the date draws near
Think about it does China profit with Trump?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8ZqFlw6hYg
Trade wars are messy and its going to get worse before it gets better. Doesn’t mean the economy is ready to implode on its self quite yet, but it’s been a great 11 year run and all good things.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I wonder if the tesla shorts are going to call it a win and move on...
Tine can we have an honest discussion about how bad Heidi Klum's pussy is she's been divorced like 9 times
or how good it is since she's been married 9 times
You and I know it’s never one thing with economic cycles.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyTrade wars are messy and its going to get worse before it gets better. Doesn’t mean the economy is ready to implode on its self quite yet, but it’s been a great 11 year run and all good things.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
There is always an element of chance meets circumstance (catalysts) but this cycle turn was set up 10 years ago and frankly a turn is long overdue.
Well, your bitcoin hedge was -6% vs DOW -3% so I think the Tesla goes on layawayQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou and I know it’s never one thing with economic cycles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
There is always an element of chance meets circumstance (catalysts) but this cycle turn was set up 10 years ago and frankly a turn is long overdue.
No disagreement whatsoever. But “this time it’s different” because the cycle was propelled forward by $1T of deficit spending per year and a recent change to Tax policy.
Going to be interesting to see if this is a one year recession thing or the start of a true plunge. If you really stop and think about it we really haven’t had a normal recession in over 25 years (i count dot com downturn as an “event”)
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
No disagreement whatsoever. But “this time it’s different” because the cycle was propelled forward by $1T of deficit spending per year and a recent change to Tax policy.
Going to be interesting to see if this is a one year recession thing or the start of a true plunge. If you really stop and think about it we really haven’t had a normal recession in over 25 years (i count dot com downturn as an “event”)
do you think the housing market implosion was kind of a tectonic release that put off The Big One a bit longer?
I’d like to think, mostly because I like to sleep at night, that the 2008 implosion was our generations “Big one”.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
do you think the housing market implosion was kind of a tectonic release that put off The Big One a bit longer?
I’m not a tinfoil hat type but I do on some level believe there is a new world order not so secret foundation of uber important folks that control the rest of us on a macroeconomic level. A Great Depression event in an age of tech and nuclear bombs is a very dangerous thing and I think there is a belief with these elite types that this level of event simply can’t happen again for the overall good of humanity.
In a world of negative interest rates and Trllions of $£¥ deficits the centralized banks of the world will just paper over the problem.
not until it prints at $0.00...short sellers are motherfucking savages...Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Ray Dalio founded one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater AssocQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
do you think the housing market implosion was kind of a tectonic release that put off The Big One a bit longer?
He booked his billion and retired to philanthropy. Similar to Buffet, he seems hell bent on teaching economic theory. I like his simple style.
Daly referenced cycles in his post. I stumbled on this Dalio video recently. It is so simple & elegant. No tin foil. The economy is fun enough.
It’s 30 minutes but you will consider it again and again for the rest of your life. Allow him to ramp up for 5-10 min
You will find your own answer
http://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0
I don't buy it....I mean I'm sure it's all legit mathematically but when creditors......4:30 mark are de-regulatedQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRay Dalio founded one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater AssocQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
He booked his billion and retired to philanthropy. Similar to Buffet, he seems hell bent on teaching economic theory. I like his simple style.
Daly referenced cycles in his post. I stumbled on this Dalio video recently. It is so simple & elegant. No tin foil. The economy is fun enough.
It’s 30 minutes but you will consider it again and again for the rest of your life. Allow him to ramp up for 5-10 min
You will find your own answer
http://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0
and allowed to rip-off the buyer via stock market influences, the whole thing becomes a sham
the buck should stop everywhere and this is not what is happening
There are only so many ways you could or should become super wealthy.
You're either a genius or you have a pass on ripping people off.
Sanman I have a very short attention span (really?) So at the 8:00 mark I'm told that economic cycles are dueQuote:
Originally Posted by limitlesI don't buy it....I mean I'm sure it's all legit mathematically but when creditors......4:30 mark are de-regulatedQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
and allowed to rip-off the buyer via stock market influences, the whole thing becomes a sham
the buck should stop everywhere and this is not what is happening
There are only so many ways you could or should become super wealthy.
You're either a genius or you have a pass on ripping people off.
to human nature. Let's just examine that for a second.....of course everything is cyclical but cycles can interrupted.
Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words
I'm no scholar but I just ripped that video a new one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYHm3zyxtKk
Knowing all I know I think I would trade places with John Daly
btw...way too much weight on the right side at that point
Fucking ridicolous......I mean are ignoring historic facts? Are you too in love withQuote:
Originally Posted by limitlesSanman I have a very short attention span (really?) So at the 8:00 mark I'm told that economic cycles are dueQuote:
Originally Posted by limitles
to human nature. Let's just examine that for a second.....of course everything is cyclical but cycles can interrupted.
Sub prime mortgate lending was a direct tool used for the profit of few. And as it turns out it was the ruin of many, not the few. Answer that in your own words
I'm no scholar but I just ripped that video a new one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYHm3zyxtKk
Knowing all I know I think I would trade places with John Daly
btw...way too much weight on the right side at that point
your money machine to respond? It's been a half an hour and it shouldn't take
more than a minute to rebut my argument.
You have three minutes
wait a fucking second
you just said this
Don’t drink too much and don’t accept too much credit. The public bought shit they never should have.
You are a piece of shit if you accept the second point in your little waste of time
People were given a chance to own a part of the American dream when it was simply a farce. And those innocent bastards got to watch the bank bail-outs of the friendly lenders from their precious government
You are a joke if you believe anything you've written
Never again talking to such lying piece of crap
Of course no one is guilty. It's just human nature.
Do not present that to me. Wait, wait wait, it is the
unsuspecting public that is to blame. They have some
real money making schemes behind their actions don't they?
Are you ignorant? You don't think anyone is aware?
Aight. post restricted I can only bump my own posts....
so I vow to bring this topic to a head........I will bring evidence against your pathetic take that's it.
There were way too much assets floating around the world. Including your pension fund. It needed to earn “interest”. Money managers were desperate for returns.Quote:
Originally Posted by limitles
The creation of mortgage backed securities at Solomon Brothers was captured exquisitely by Michael Lewis in Liars Poker He was 27 and didn’t know the importance of what he witnessed.
This cool new toy satisfied the need for returns AND provided credit for homeowners. Home ownership is a fundamental value in the US and is promoted by all. I won’t get into why people owning a home is a good thing.
No harm is caused. It’s all good.
EXCEPT. Financial institutions measured their assets (the mortgage backed securities) on a risk weighted basis.
Our rules, they said, state we can only accept so much risk. But looking back we see that defaults are occurring at a far smaller rate than we had figured. You know what? We can accept more risk. So on and so on.
People don’t default when asset prices (your house) is rising in value. Maybe you get a second mortgage or refinance. People endlessly refinanced their rate. They could get refinanced cause their house was worth more.
Don’t drink too much and don’t accept too much credit. The public bought shit they never should have.
Mortgage brokers were sleazy salesmen. Bartenders keep serving.
The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople.
The financial institutions were stupid because their analysis of their asset’s risk was backward looking & flawed. They accepted too much risk and consequently were too steeply leveraged.
If there was regulation the regulators weren’t gonna say shit cause their future employer was that financial institution. (Just like your Congressman.but I digress).
When asset prices fell cause every breathing US citizen had already bought a home - the whole house of cards collapsed.
There were many other wonderful details but this is how I remember that episode.
TOO MUCH CREDIT AND IT GOT DELEVERAGED.
there is always a new twist in every cycle There is always something new.
I know Limitles is just making conversation but I wanted to see if I could riff the housing crisis
Interestingly Canadians didn’t get fucked by the crisis and I forget why
is this a good time to bring up that apple are ramping up sub prime credit card offers?
You run your mouth awful reckless.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarMortgage brokers were sleazy salesmen. Bartenders keep serving.Quote:
Originally Posted by limitles
The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople.
Aside from this outrageous pejorative your overall summary is spot on.
I reread Liar's Poker recently as well as The Big Short. Amazing how they tie together a 20 year arc.
Were you a mortgage broker? There were stories of bartenders who were made mortgage brokers and lived lavish and large.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonutsYou run your mouth awful reckless.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Aside from this outrageous pejorative your overall summary is spot on.
I reread Liar's Poker recently as well as The Big Short. Amazing how they tie together a 20 year arc.
They and their kind were young and inexperienced and thought perpetual motion had been invented.
They were just hustling. In fact, the buyers of mortgages were desperate for product. They’d call the broker begging for new paper that they would in turn package up and resell to your insurance company or whatever.
The brokers needed to find new borrowers to keep their customers happy and pay for bottle service that night.
Their Lambo got 9mpg
Salesmen sold.
The arc of Liars Poker 1987 & The Big Short is amazing and just the biggest exercise in coincidence and chance.
What interests me recently is that Michael Lewis is canoodling with his new gal pal Elizabeth Warren and it is making me uncomfortable But I’m listening.
Dude I think Tony was agreeing with you....just wait until I have a few days to research the topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWere you a mortgage broker? There were stories of bartenders who were made mortgage brokers and lived lavish and large.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
They and their kind were young and inexperienced and thought perpetual motion had been invented.
They were just hustling. In fact, the buyers of mortgages were desperate for product. They’d call the broker begging for new paper that they would in turn package up and resell to your insurance company or whatever.
The brokers needed to find new borrowers to keep their customers happy and pay for bottle service that night.
Their Lambo got 9mpg
Salesmen sold.
The arc of Liars Poker 1987 & The Big Short is amazing and just the biggest exercise in coincidence and chance.
What interests me recently is that Micharl Lewis is canoodling with his new gal pal Elizabeth Warren and it is making me uncomfortable But I’m listening.
I know you're dead but I will bring proof.
The one big tell for almost everyone are the ad hominem attacks......he did it subtlely but still
It never get's old. When people are called out they lose their shit. Sad but true. And I love toQuote:
Originally Posted by limitlesDude I think Tony was agreeing with you....just wait until I have a few days to research the topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I know you're dead but I will bring proof.
The one big tell for almost everyone are the ad hominem attacks......he did it subtlely but still
see creeps squirm, if that is a word? This is not a joke to me. I know what went down, but proof is required.
I'm not even saying Sanman or any one else here is guilty
but I must point out the fraud that has alreaydy been exposed....
Why do I even have to do this?.....It's in the public record
and if someone wants to say otherwise they have to be prepared
Where you and I differ Limitles is that I generally don’t get upset by shenanigans and fraud.
I came to PFA cause I’m a connoisseur of the game. I’m not an evangelist.
They say idealism is the privilege of a child. I am too old and likely to stroke out.
Tzvetkoff is living large on the Australian Gold Coast.
PokerStars Baasov
Micon is kicking it on some island
Ferguson, Lederer etc etc Deal them in.
Hell, my bookie at BOL is one of those guys. I forget the name. He’s thriving off Druff’s sportsbets
Recently, Epstein.
I got roped into PFA with poker payment processor Chad Elie. He did a little time but his wife is a Playboy Playmate. What a motherfuckin tale he told. Golf clap
The list is endless.
Rather than tilt windmills I absorb the stories. I admire the game. Justice is rare. Caveat Emptor is really all you can rely on.
I’m pragmatic.
Did I mention I fucking love the story of the con.
"The public were stupid. They trusted salespeople" Sanlmar
This one sentence tells you a lot about people in general and about the
poster who posted.
In this case we are talking about home mortgages. A significant investment/profit
depending on your position
Laws enabling loans to people who would otherwise not qualify was all of a sudden OK.
The risks for these mortgages were inevitably bought and sold on Wall Street.
When the market collapsed the lenders were not held accountable
The lenders were bailed out.
I haven't done one minute of research yet I know this.
You are pathetic......I don't care to ever speak again
really wish I could get my hands on one of those MBS docs to read just for shits and grins...
buffett said he wouldn't invest in the shit because the documents were just insanely long...if he's not gonna do that reading, wonder who actually did (outside of Paulson)…
amazing how they could repackage a whole bunch of dogshit mortgages together to get a prime grade on it...
AABBBBCCCCCCCCCCDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD DDDDD...guessing that's probably what a MBS looked like...maybe even more skewed towards the 'C' and 'D'...
yeah while theres a lotta science behind shorting, think there's even more of an art to it...you actually have to get the market to believe the shit that you are trying to sell it...
that's why I said they wouldn't stop until it hit $0.00...they have to drain every last penny outta their short to make up for the times that the market shoves it up their asses...
The credit rating agencies were fraud.
Write them a check and they’d stamp it grade A
I remember going to the library when I was a kid and getting the big Moody’s binders and looking shit up. Standard and Poors
Well they had quarterly numbers to make too it turns out. Their customers were the guys writing the paper. Good system.
Yeah, they sucked.
People willlingQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
to damage others for their own profit are
really sick
I've never come close to hurting any unsuspecting entity.
No way does my profit equal thier loss
Cold call some rube with bullshit and claiming a win?
You are just sad
Actually, it’s a good time for trivia.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The first person sentenced to prison following the collapse was a Goldman Sachs programmer.
Like, he was pretty much the only Big Bank employee to be incarcerated. Odd
Michael Lewis thought this peculiar. Of all the nonsense and fraud. Why this programmer?
The programmer was innocent but played his hand badly with the Feds.
He, in fact, was working on high frequency trading. He liked using open source code, I recall. He would modify the code and wished to return the changes back to the community. Goldman wasn’t a fan and felt it became theirs.
The programmer would send it to free repositories for code storage so that he could access it later and removed his bash history.
Mayhem ensues - Goldman guns for him and the secrets to which he is privy
Michael Lewis discovers the wonderful world of HFT digging into the programmers plight and writes Flash Boys.
Did I mention the programmer was Russian?
# who
# pkill -KILL -u sanlmar
Then you must love the Trump family story, seeing as they are a whole family of con artists and fraudsters. Truly a genuine American invention.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
P.S. Except Eric. He’s too dumb to do any real cons. And also not Tiffany. She was raised by her way-more-ethical-than-Trump golddigging mother.
Are you kidding? It’s amazing. The psychological abuse. The military academy. The suicide.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
Roy freaking Cohn is your life coach. Good lord
Best of all... Trump is the confluence of 100’s of chance occurances. Life is amazing.