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Refball.
Mid 50’s FG or flag.
One or two NFL a year is all I can take. Nearly as gay as NBA became
We middle tho
Tony Romo just came on air
He compared Mahomes to MJ at one point. Twitter is gonna roast him good.
Cinci only have themselves to blame. KC didn’t show up for 3 Qs
Ossai was idiotic at the end but it was his plays that kept Cinci in it in the first place
Glad to see the refs from last nights Lakers Celtics game had time to make it from Boston to officiate the 4th quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Refball.
If only there was a sport where penalties didn’t hold such a large role.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeDGlad to see the refs from last nights Lakers Celtics game had time to make it from Boston to officiate the 4th quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRefball.
Is that something you’d might be interested in?
As a gambler this stuff has been stricken from my menu except for lulz on a slow night
Had Cinci and the Over. It is what it is.
That being said, game goes over easy without every big play in the 2nd half being called back due to penalty. Horrible.
That last play with the laterals though. WTF. Thought I was going to get a KC TD for sure. Do we even know why the ref blew the play dead when the KC guy was running it in?
Early money piling in for the Eagles already. Started -1
If you can find -130 and under 50 thats where the “value” will be
This afternoon’s game was a shit show. 4th string qb. Ouch. I bet some high schools could have put on a better show.
Tonight’s game was flag football.
Somewhat ironic that on Friday I was asking a ref to use his whistle more while coaching. Maybe I can’t have it both ways
uh-hmm.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
on a 7pt teaser you can middle kc now so i would def pick that up too
i made a fortune last night b/n this and teasing the ou to 40.5 with both teams as well. Needed it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
destined to become a classic
I bought up under 50 and -130 last night. See where the market takes us from there.
I think the one bet Ill add, if I can find it, will be Under 24.5 1H and 10 1Q. Who knows for game but there has been a distinct tightness to super bowl games as teams get their legs under them.
As a in general guideline you will start to see all sorts of ridiculous props come out. The value is almost always that something wont happen over that it will. This is the flagship broadcast for the NFL and there isn't a whole lot of clowning around.
Under and No’s
Dont be that guy who bets yes on a safety at +750. Lay the 1000 to win 100 on No…. As an example.
Why would you buy an under 2 weeks before the most public game in America?
That’s not right, man.
tbf, your handicap has merit but it’s akin to fundamental stock market analysis vs stock market sentiment when forecasting price. Sentiment wins short term.
The Super Bowl hype machine will whip the all these fresh legal punters into a frenzy. You remember your first time? Did you go under?
Every ploppy will have a stain on the front of their trousers like Tony Romo last night. “Mahomes is MJ” and all that. Precious
Embrace the spectacle. Let it work for you.
NBA
Toronto +2 at Phoenix
NCAAB
Texas Tech -1.5 vs Iowa State
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Because the public has little to no impact on the super bowl line.
“not to be a dick”
But if Limitless, Badguy, tyde, cmoney and 100 other PFA regulars show up at the super book and bet 1000 each on the over 50 the line would still be at 50 for customer 101.
If the 101 customer is Krack and he bets 10K on the under they take notice.
If customers 102-148 are Tine and Todd and Zod and they all bet the over 50 for 1K each they it will be 50 for customer 150.
If customer 150 is Billy Waters and he bets 10K on the under there is a good chance the line fir customer 151 will be 49.
It sounds counter intuitive but the SB line is the most anti public line there is.
If anyone wants to bet yes on “the octopus” let me know and Ill do better than 14-1 for you. Ill even escrow with todd. Lmk
Toronto had a nice 3rd quarter comeback, took a 5-point lead. They were 1 point ahead going into the final 2 minutes, then collapsed. I always lose betting on the Raptors.
On the plus side, Texas Tech was getting obliterated in the first half, down 39-22. They came back and tied the game, sending it to OT, then squeaked ahead by 3 at the very end. 80-77 final and somehow I won that one. Would've been super pissed if I had the other side.
Closing in on 50,000 PFA posts for me.
This is #49,992. I'm averaging about 12.5 posts per day, which is more than I would have guessed.
Here are two picks:
Chicago vs Clippers - Under 225.5
West Virginia +2 at TCU
For entertainment purposes only. If I had to pick one for each tournament this week
ATT Pebble - Seamus Power 20-1 Weak field and he has been in great form. Big opportunity for him.
DP Tour - Ryan Fox 18-1. No great reason. Just like him.
Saudi International - Cam Young 10-1. Waffled a bit because he is a fish out of water there with all the LiV guys. But he has played much more competitive golf in the last few months than pretty much this whole field.
* Golf betting can be stressful and expensive. Variance is huge. Only advantage is the stress increases your chances of having a massive heart attack one day, so you can save money buying shittier Long Term Care Insurance to help offset costs associated with the variance.
GL!
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
I can endorse Power as a good pick, but I'm all in on Putnam.
More i thought through the LIV play the more i Like Cam Young
Today sports wagering became legal in Massachusetts. To honor this sad occasion and ensuing offshore crackdown I thought I would contribute something for tomorrow.
The NHL All Star break commences after tomorrow’s two games. Bruins vs the Leafs (Leafs always Leaf) & Sabres vs Hurricanes
Bruins are on a 3 game losing streak. They were legend for their power play (5 players vs 4). Lately they are 0-12 & 3-27 (last 7 games) on the power play. Successful teams cash these opportunities. This is a serious concern.
For me to even entertain Bruins I need to know Ullmark is in net. The Bruins are shenanigans with goalie confirmation. Just prior to puck drop someone comes outta locker room. Books need to list goalies like MLB pitchers.
Toronto has been rolling lately. They Leaf against weak teams but come to play against good teams.
The line has been drifting toward Boston but line movement and alleged sharp action isn’t a thing in NHL wagering. Just a data point that triggers CLV regret. Maybe we pass.
Sabres +140 vs Hurricanes
Sabres have the best offense in hockey. Meh defense. Meh goalie expected tomorrow. Meh
Hurricanes were down tonight 4-1 to LA Kings (+1640 ML). They came back and won in OT 5-4. Heroic They are still partying. Their hair is still wet.
Hurricanes will have played 3 games in 4 days. They can lose tomorrow with dignity and a pounding headache and go on break satisfied win or lose. Sabres have been resting since Saturday.
I can’t bet the game yet because BOL has become faggot but when it opens I am hitting Sabres.
Stream of consciousness but there ya go.
I have consistently praised BOL for years. I have never ever brought any criticism. I have always been paid quickly. I have been 100% satisfied with customer service.
They take big bets and don’t cry. They originated lines. Their live betting provider was top top. Very sharp.
I very rarely funded other outs. I made money. Sure I used SBR (Rip) and other tools to monitor lines at other books. I felt satisfied with my marriage.
BOL has become fearful and weak. Their new live provider has very shallow offerings and is public af. Awful spreads. Will lock you out during interesting spots.
I wonder if they originate lines anymore. Doubt it. No trading desks either, I’m sure. Their overnight offerings are pathetic. They do not allow parlays on props between games. THEY DO NOT ALLOW ALT LINE PARLAYS which has proven a very lucrative angle in the legal world. Take (3) +2.5 Pucklines and parlay them, for instance.
It’s vanilla sex.
I foretold the sun was setting on the Golden Age of Sports Wagering. Quantity does not mean quality. I wouldn’t bet the legal spreads I’m seeing with your money… and then get taxed? Get outta here.
Kids all bubbly saying they are using a free bet on this game or that booster. Yeah, moron. You just told me the stupid line on tonight’s game. Your arsehole is bleeding and MGM feels bad.
Sad times.
We are suposedly a bunch of MLB experts in here….
He moved to 9-1 so he’s taking action. Sanctioned by Asian tour btw so if someone is in a state where they allow betting on that you may not have to bet this offshore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Alt line wagering porn. The 1P under gives me the biggest pause but it shouldn’t given goalies and game total.
When I was a kid growing up on the farm such things were unthinkable.
Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 224
NCAAB:
Villanova +170 at Marquette - FIRST HALF
Didn't expect Boston to put up 139. Still only lost the pick by 11. Oh well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Finally hit one of those NCAAB 1H bets. Nova squeaked by 35-34 in 1H.
Day 1 in Golf of course have to be muted. But with Young shooting 5 under and T3, DJ withdrawing an hour before tee off with a back injury and Cam Smith shooting 3 over…..can’t ask for much more. Just I should of bet more. Regardless of outcome from here. He’s the clear favorite now. Hold your tits. Need a good start to the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeHe moved to 9-1 so he’s taking action. Sanctioned by Asian tour btw so if someone is in a state where they allow betting on that you may not have to bet this offshore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Fox had a nice round as well. Still could brick it all but nice to see guys starting well.
Hope this helpsQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
With the break in sports we have time to do MLB homework. Prelim list. Feedback expected.
These are Bookmaker numbers for reference. They have a trading desk. Not a retarded way to start the exercise. You know my attitude about futures generally especially baseball (1 year Certificate of Deposit). Futures hold is a cheat math-wise. Bookmaker takes size if you pop them repeatedly.
Am I driving to Wynn Boston for legal futures? I will have to pray on it. I have a moral dilemma
Astros +585 (autobet)
Just stupid talent with great development and pitching prospects. No $ games on service time. Haves and have nots in modern pros
Yordan Alvarez +1100 MVP AL
Framber Valdez +2500 CY Young
Gunnar Henderson +250 ROY AL
Treating myself to a sugary snack
Grayson Rodriguez +1200 ROY AL
Pitchers and playing time? Longer odds be better but it’s a savvy idea
Jordan Walker +675 ROY NL
Insane talent
Corbin Carroll +325 ROY NL
Centerfield Diamondbacks. He will play and not get screwed with IMO
Sandy Alcantara +410 Cy NL
We are supposed to bet him but his team stinks and he’s screwing around in WBC. Just a mention out of completeness
Something weird with the absence of Oscar Colás ChiSox ROY. He is definitely in your portfolio and him missing adds to my interest
I know you favor lottery numbers but you have to choose players on winning teams who will get time and don’t share votes with team mates etc. There is a process and everyone uses it, I guess. Time is just gonna make it worse in today’s sports wagering. I’m actually late.
If you want Miguel Vargas +750 Dodgers 2nd base you need to PM me first. I’ll take your $ and give you a Denny’s gift card
Just realized I have no Padres. Hmmm. Is what it is. Split votes and nothing tantalizing.
12 hours into break and it feels like the pandemic already.
Saw you lurking Druff.
If you want a fun bet on opening day Shortstop (you stubborn mule) let me know. It’s Lux. It was always Lux and no matter how bad he is he will be your guy til All Star break.
Dodgers don’t adjust. They are smarter than us.
Vargas, Lux, Muncy
Los Angeles has a huge tv market and they need to bring entertainment to the masses in this off year.
Remember Nomah? (Anthony Nomar Garciaparra) Your ‘roided shortstop in 2008’ish (I forget). Lux gave me flashbacks. His arm sucks cause he doesn’t know how to throw a baseball not because he was weak.
Lux shirtless on Sports Illustrated?
The Red Sox Dodgers player swaps were funny at first but it’s time to build a wall.
I'll play as well and add thoughts to San's choices. I'm looking at draftkings lines:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarHope this helpsQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
With the break in sports we have time to do MLB homework. Prelim list. Feedback expected.
These are Bookmaker numbers for reference. They have a trading desk. Not a retarded way to start the exercise. You know my attitude about futures generally especially baseball (1 year Certificate of Deposit). Futures hold is a cheat math-wise. Bookmaker takes size if you pop them repeatedly.
Am I driving to Wynn Boston for legal futures? I will have to pray on it. I have a moral dilemma
Astros +585 (autobet)
Just stupid talent with great development and pitching prospects. No $ games on service time. Haves and have nots in modern pros
Agreed, Astros safest pick for probably the next 5 years. I like Seattle +1700 and STL +1900 for value
Yordan Alvarez +1100 MVP AL
Ohtani too low to bet, and I wouldn't bet anyone else while he exists. Lindor +2500 in NL is a fun value play IMO
Framber Valdez +2500 CY Young
Framber +1500 on DK, as good a choice as any. Castillo +1800 if you believe in Seattle. DeGrom as the fave is hilarious.
Gunnar Henderson +250 ROY AL
Treating myself to a sugary snack
Yoshida +1000 if fading Gunnar
Grayson Rodriguez +1200 ROY AL
Pitchers and playing time? Longer odds be better but it’s a savvy idea
Jordan Walker +675 ROY NL
Insane talent
Corbin Carroll +325 ROY NL
Centerfield Diamondbacks. He will play and not get screwed with IMO
Agree on Carroll, De La Cruz +1500 is tempting but Reds might do service time shenanigans
Sandy Alcantara +410 Cy NL
We are supposed to bet him but his team stinks and he’s screwing around in WBC. Just a mention out of completeness
Strider at +1300 sounds like fun
Something weird with the absence of Oscar Colás ChiSox ROY. He is definitely in your portfolio and him missing adds to my interest
Colas is +2200 on DK
I know you favor lottery numbers but you have to choose players on winning teams who will get time and don’t share votes with team mates etc. There is a process and everyone uses it, I guess. Time is just gonna make it worse in today’s sports wagering. I’m actually late.
If you want Miguel Vargas +750 Dodgers 2nd base you need to PM me first. I’ll take your $ and give you a Denny’s gift card
Just realized I have no Padres. Hmmm. Is what it is. Split votes and nothing tantalizing.
Here is an interesting article about same-game parlays, now allowed in Vegas: https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...me-game-parlay
The article is by ESPN's David Purdum, the same guy who wrote the article about my being victimized by that BetMGM theft ring back in October. I've talked to him on the phone a few times about various matters.
Anyway, the article mentions how occasionally these can be exploited for profit, such as one time in January when Draymond Green was forecasted to only play a few minutes, so sharp bettors hammered the under on points/rebounds/assists with him, and parlayed all 3. They made out very well.
Nobody is running game simulations on hockey and it’s not a big exposure. We like it that way. You see no mention of NHL in the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I’m in a private discord hockey chat and a couple guys are onto some SGP angles that are so frustrating to just watch. I call it alt-line parlays & SGP porn. They ATM every night. Just grinding +100 to +200 wagers. I’m like a cuck jerking off in the corner.
The books are not responding just as the books did not respond to NHL 1P’s back in 2017/18. Now betting by period is a huge part of the industry.
The books will close this loop too. They always do.
In my world, offshore practices old fashioned values and nothing new is gonna develop cause it’s dying. There is no investment happening nor should here be.
Interestingly, we tip members who share their analytics. Some guys work hard on their stuff. There are only 7-8 guys. PFA being anti tip and all.
Superbowl props?
Eric Eager (Sumer sports) said on a pod today Noah Gray 60-1 first TD was amazing. He does seem to be in on Chiefs goal line sets but my sham book only has it at 33-1.
25/1 William HillQuote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiper