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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayjami
Get a hold of your own counties sovereignty and maybe America will start to take you seriously again.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanQuote:
Originally Posted by Jayjami
Get a hold of your own counties sovereignty and maybe America will start to take you seriously again.
:TRAIN
lol great red reps from the dumbest posters on the site
the market dropped cause of trump's china/tariff talk. am i too cynical in believing that schumer only said this to try and pressure trump to crash the market further in advance of 2020?Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Quote:
Originally Posted by blakethe market dropped cause of trump's china/tariff talk. am i too cynical in believing that schumer only said this to try and pressure trump to crash the market further in advance of 2020?Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
could be but seems like schumer agrees with trump at least once a year on stuff
We could always stop and ask the question if this is the right thing to do. I mean it is posible that China has been taking advantage of us for 25 years with virtually no concessions over that time and its time to stand our ground a little bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
could be but seems like schumer agrees with trump at least once a year on stuff
I mean I know liberals will find a way to blame trump for standing to these guys. Go ask China for $15 an hour and a 40 hour work week and see where that gets you.
pretty sure china could tank the dollar at this point if they wanted to. obviously thats not a great option for them since they are so heavily invested in a reasonably healthy american economy. but we let china slide with everything from private sector IP theft to breaking into the Office of Personal Management and stealing our security clearance documents for 21 _million_ americans because its not in our best interests to assume an adversarial posture with them, like at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyWe could always stop and ask the question if this is the right thing to do. I mean it is posible that China has been taking advantage of us for 25 years with virtually no concessions over that time and its time to stand our ground a little bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
I mean I know liberals will find a way to blame trump for standing to these guys. Go ask China for $15 an hour and a 40 hour work week and see where that gets you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyWe could always stop and ask the question if this is the right thing to do. I mean it is posible that China has been taking advantage of us for 25 years with virtually no concessions over that time and its time to stand our ground a little bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
I mean I know liberals will find a way to blame trump for standing to these guys. Go ask China for $15 an hour and a 40 hour work week and see where that gets you.
Honestly, it’s more the question do we want this idiot who seems to lose every business deal he’s ever entered that involves more that just licensing his name and somehow lost money on casinos during the fucking 80s when no one lost money on casinos and ended up like $9 billion in debt before the banks bailed him out playing Russian roulette with the Chinese of all people?
I would stand and applaud the rightest wing motherfucker ever getting tough with the Chinese if he had any proven aptitude at doing anything beyond emerging with a shit deal and declaring victory. If this was Sheldon Adelson as president, I would hate him in general and find fault with a million things and vote against him, but think this is a dude who had a taxi driver dad and became one of the richest dudes alive and one smart businessman and confronting the Chinese is long overdue. This dude though, fuck no. He’s a mong at anything beyond self-promotion.
But Trump earned about $150 million in fees during his casino management years. It was the banks and other investors who lost most of that money. That being said, the issue is that we can’t trust Trump to actually care about the actual results of the deal, including the quid pro quos we don’t hear about in official reporting on those deals, for anyone other than his family. #ItsAboutTheEmolumentsQuote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Honestly, it’s more the question do we want this idiot who seems to lose every business deal he’s ever entered that involves more that just licensing his name and somehow lost money on casinos during the fucking 80s when no one lost money on casinos and ended up like $9 billion in debt before the banks bailed him out playing Russian roulette with the Chinese of all people?
I would stand and applaud the rightest wing motherfucker ever getting tough with the Chinese if he had any proven aptitude at doing anything beyond emerging with a shit deal and declaring victory. If this was Sheldon Adelson as president, I would hate him in general and find fault with a million things and vote against him, but think this is a dude who had a taxi driver dad and became one of the richest dudes alive and one smart businessman and confronting the Chinese is long overdue. This dude though, fuck no. He’s a mong at anything beyond self-promotion.
Tine let me tell you a little bit about China. In China you go to your factory and work for the week then on Friday night your factory boss pays you out. If the guy doesn’t come up with the money they kidnap the guy and hold the factory hostage. The main point being the citizenry don’t fuck around over there. They know they are getting a shit deal but what they are promised they expect to get.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatinepretty sure china could tank the dollar at this point if they wanted to. obviously thats not a great option for them since they are so heavily invested in a reasonably healthy american economy. but we let china slide with everything from private sector IP theft to breaking into the Office of Personal Management and stealing our security clearance documents for 21 _million_ americans because its not in our best interests to assume an adversarial posture with them, like at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
China absolutely positively can not take the dollar down at least not in the way you are inferring. The rest of the world begged the USA to not go into bankruptcy and loan the money and run the press to paper over the problems back in 2008. Reason being a full on USA collapse inclusive of the USD would put the whole world into a depression the likes of which haven’t been truly experienced in two generations. For China it would be an extinction level event. They are tied to our economy like nobody else.
It’s not In our long term interests to be adversarial with any major superpower. that said it’s not the worst thing in the world to stand up to them and strike a better deal. China will have to bend to some concessions and it’s a wonderful thing Trump is attempting. If the rest of the government types would get behind him on this it could be a big win for this country.
If Obama tried this it would be applauded as a bold move to renegotiate with the evil Yellow Man.
They buy our paper Daly.
That counts for a lot around these parts
Not enough to make it count.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
“China holds $1.138 trillion in U.S. securities and Japan owns $1.018 trillion. These two countries hold more than a third of all U.S. debt owned by foreign governments. Brazil holds the third-largest amount, at $313 billion. (In a ledger line that simply begs for federal investigation, the government of the Cayman Islands owns $208 billion in government securities.)
Readers should have caution when they see analysts warning about Chinese dominance over U.S. debt. While there is no question that the government of China holds large reserves of Treasury securities, this investment amounts to less than 5% of the total U.S. national debt.”
The other side of the equation is a lot of investment in China is done in dollars. Take that away and it’s not a good picture.
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Originally Posted by DalyTine let me tell you a little bit about China. In China you go to your factory and work for the week then on Friday night your factory boss pays you out. If the guy doesn’t come up with the money they kidnap the guy and hold the factory hostage. The main point being the citizenry don’t fuck around over there. They know they are getting a shit deal but what they are promised they expect to get.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
China absolutely positively can not take the dollar down at least not in the way you are inferring. The rest of the world begged the USA to not go into bankruptcy and loan the money and run the press to paper over the problems back in 2008. Reason being a full on USA collapse inclusive of the USD would put the whole world into a depression the likes of which haven’t been truly experienced in two generations. For China it would be an extinction level event. They are tied to our economy like nobody else.
It’s not In our long term interests to be adversarial with any major superpower. that said it’s not the worst thing in the world to stand up to them and strike a better deal. China will have to bend to some concessions and it’s a wonderful thing Trump is attempting. If the rest of the government types would get behind him on this it could be a big win for this country.
If Obama tried this it would be applauded as a bold move to renegotiate with the evil Yellow Man.
Point well taken.
Trade wars in general are a game of chicken. This one is a bit trickier since there are still a lot American companies in China making products for American customers. There's Chinese subcontractors in select places in that chain, but the start and end points are on your end. Tariffs now lower the competitiveness of American companies even before China retaliates. And almost none of this is reversed from China's perspective. They hold assets on your soil, very little production.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNot enough to make it count.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
“China holds $1.138 trillion in U.S. securities and Japan owns $1.018 trillion. These two countries hold more than a third of all U.S. debt owned by foreign governments. Brazil holds the third-largest amount, at $313 billion. (In a ledger line that simply begs for federal investigation, the government of the Cayman Islands owns $208 billion in government securities.)
Readers should have caution when they see analysts warning about Chinese dominance over U.S. debt. While there is no question that the government of China holds large reserves of Treasury securities, this investment amounts to less than 5% of the total U.S. national debt.”
The other side of the equation is a lot of investment in China is done in dollars. Take that away and it’s not a good picture.
the US would absolutely kill china in a trade war if the US people were solidly behind doing so, which they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmickTrade wars in general are a game of chicken. This one is a bit trickier since there are still a lot American companies in China making products for American customers. There's Chinese subcontractors in select places in that chain, but the start and end points are on your end. Tariffs now lower the competitiveness of American companies even before China retaliates. And almost none of this is reversed from China's perspective. They hold assets on your soil, very little production.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
china is completely reliant on exports, and 20% of their exports go to the US alone. in contrast, only 8% of US exports go to china. tariffs on exports would hurt the US. they would cripple china.
one thing the chinese have going for them, though, is that it's a communist country without elections. US policies would be subject to change every few years, and they would likely change re china if the economy isn't doing well. china might just have to wait out the next president and hope that both parties don't ultimately unify against it.
:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by blakethe US would absolutely kill china in a trade war if the US people were solidly behind doing so, which they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmick
china is completely reliant on exports, and 20% of their exports go to the US alone. in contrast, only 8% of US exports go to china. tariffs on exports would hurt the US. they would cripple china.
one thing the chinese has going for them, though, is that it's a communist country without elections. US policies would be subject to change every few years, and they would likely change re china if the economy isn't doing well. china might just have to wait out the next president and hope that both parties don't ultimately unify against it.
And it’s the main reason behind why the vitriol of 45 is infuriating. If he’s doing anything right, it’s this. And we can’t all just shut up and let it happen.
Do you think Nikes are Chinese export products? US currently makes something like less than 5% of all clothes, shoes and accessories that are being sold to Americans. End products, components and raw materials that are for American companies are a huge % of that export number. Hitting any of that is on a new level of stupid. Raising taxes in that situation has a completely opposite effect to purpose of tariffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakethe US would absolutely kill china in a trade war if the US people were solidly behind doing so, which they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmick
china is completely reliant on exports, and 20% of their exports go to the US alone. in contrast, only 8% of US exports go to china. tariffs on exports would hurt the US. they would cripple china.
one thing the chinese have going for them, though, is that it's a communist country without elections. US policies would be subject to change every few years, and they would likely change re china if the economy isn't doing well. china might just have to wait out the next president and hope that both parties don't ultimately unify against it.
like i said, raising tariffs on chinese goods would hurt american companies (at least the ones not directly competing with chinese manufacturers) as well as US consumers who would have to pay more for nearly everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmickDo you think Nikes are Chinese export products? US currently makes something like less than 5% of all clothes, shoes and accessories that are being sold to Americans. End products, components and raw materials that are for American companies are a huge % of that export number. Hitting any of that is on a new level of stupid. Raising taxes in that situation has a completely opposite effect to purpose of tariffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
but, not as much as the chinese would be hurt if the US went nuclear with tariffs. their entire economy is reliant on the US and would collapse without us. our entire economy is not reliant on their products. we would survive the trade war. they would not. in theory, this would give trump significant leverage over the chinese.
however, the reality is that the american people don't think about things on a macro level, and tend to care only about what's good for themselves (which i guess is understandable). when the stock market tanks and the prices of all of our consumer goods skyrocket, which is what would happen, americans would be calling for the trade war to end
SOL THOUGHTS?
Thoughts on Melania the model? Pretty face, but I prefer more of an hourglass figure. To each their own though.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
SOL THOUGHTS?
From what I can see of her, Ri Sol Ju doesn't do it for me at all. Unless she has a Jessica Rabbit body hiding under that dress, gonna have to go with Melania.
Who's excited for the investigation into Hunter Biden's business dealings while daddy was VP? Aghh, our new normal. Good times.
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Originally Posted by Tellafriend
yeah someone explain to me how biden got vetted past this please.
Decades-old Trump tax returns show over $1B in losses: report
https://nypost.com/2019/05/07/decade...losses-report/
World's Greatest BusinessmanQuote:
The New York Times obtained 10 years worth of President Trump’s tax returns from the late 1980s and early 1990s — and reported how he lost hundreds of millions of dollars on failed business deals.
The documents from 1985-1994 show he lost millions each year on casinos, hotels and retail space — totaling a loss of $1.7 billion for the decade, according to the paper.
Compared to IRS data, Trump lost more money than most other taxpayers during that time. In 1990 and 1991, he lost $250 million — double the next closest filer for those years, the paper said.
Trump lost so much money during this period that he avoided paying income tax for eight of those 10 years, the Times reported.
Trump lawyer Charles J. Harder called the figures “demonstrably false.” He also told the paper that it’s statements “about the president’s tax returns and business from 30 years ago are highly inaccurate,” without providing specifics.
“I.R.S. transcripts, particularly before the days of electronic filing, are notoriously inaccurate [and] would not be able to provide a reasonable picture of any taxpayer’s return,” he added.
The paper said a White House official had earlier claimed: “The president got massive depreciation and tax shelter because of large-scale construction and subsidized developments. That is why the president has always scoffed at the tax system and said you need to change the tax laws. You can make a large income and not have to pay large amount of taxes.”
In 1985 Trump borrowed hundreds of millions and purchased a casino for $351.8 million, a Manhattan hotel for $80 million, the Florida resort Mar-a-Lago for $10 million, a building for $60 million, and rail yards on the West Side for $85 million, the report said.
Some investments, like Mar-a-Lago, did not turn a profit for years.
In total Trump lost $46 million in 1985, in addition to $5.6 million carried over from the previous year.
Trump then bought an apartment building in West Palm Beach for $43 million in 1986, losing $68.7 million for that year.
The real estate mogul purchased a $29 million yacht just weeks before the stock market crash of 1987. He then bought then Plaza Hotel for $407 million, leading to $30 million in losses for that year.
Trump also recorded $42.2 million in business losses for 1987, and $30.4 million for 1988, the Times said.
His business losses skyrockets in 1989, when he lost $181.7 million.
The Trump Taj Mahal Hotel and Casino opened in 1990 and was severely deep in dept, causing a combined loss of $517.6 million in 1990 and 1991.
https://assets.teenvogue.com/photos/...tory-trump.jpg
then the new kids on the block used their wealth to make Trump Putin's bitch. The obligation ends only when trump dies.
During the 1990s, once Boris Yeltsin became President of Russia in 1991, the oligarchs emerged as well-connected entrepreneurs who started from
nearly nothing and became rich through participation in the market via connections to the corrupt, but elected, government of Russia during the
state's transition to a market-based economy. The so-called voucher-privatization program enabled a handful of young men to become billionaires,
specifically by arbitraging the vast difference between old domestic prices for Russian commodities (e.g. gas, oil) and the prices prevailing on
the world market.
Between 2000 and 2004, Putin apparently engaged in a power-struggle with some oligarchs, reaching a "grand bargain" with them. This bargain allowed
the oligarchs to maintain their powers, in exchange for their explicit support of Putin's government. Many more business people have become oligarchs
during Putin's time in power, and often due to personal relations with Putin.
Trump sold a Palm Beach estate that he bought for $41 million to a Russian oligarch for $95 million only four years later in 2008. Months earlier
Trump Entertainment Resorts filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while Trumpa-Dumpa was struggling to find banks willing to lend to him.
I worked as a financial analyst in the real estate tax shelter business in the 1980s right up to when the 1986 Tax Reform Act was passed and became law. And while that tax reform eliminated the ability for *passive* real estate investors, i.e. limited partnership shareowners, to get the tax shelter benefit from depreciation, it continued to allow active investors, i.e. general partners, to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactor
And if an unscrupulous general partner was clever enough to trick banks to lend him most of the money for the project while putting up a nominal amount of his own money to establish the general partnership, and the banks didn’t dig too deeply or care if the general partner was overcharging for project management services, the GP could siphon off a boatload of cash from the project while legitimately reporting taxable losses for a number of years.
The real trick, though, was if the project went belly up. Then the GP would be subject to “recapture” of taxes saved from the previously claimed property depreciation. But Trump was likely able the completely mitigate the cash hit of that recapture by using a loophole that still existed at the time called a debt-equity swap on the $900 million in debt he didn’t repay the banks, which essentially turned what would have been a taxable forgiveness of debt into a tax deductible equity loss that could be used to shield the imputed taxable income from the recaptured depreciation. And he was lucky/smart regarding when he pulled that rabbit out of the hat, because that debt-equity swap loophole was closed shortly after he took advantage of it.
Hence, I FYP (in italic above).
This past Friday China sent in a new draft to a trade deal and basically deleted everything they had agreed to as concessions because “it’s not easy for them to change laws”. They basicaly spat in the USA’s face.
But the problem is Trump everyone.... it’s not China. Please.
These are not stupid people. They are betting they can wait this one out. Trumps not stupid either and even if he was his economic people around him aren’t. They going to turn up the heat. The cracks are starting to show in China’s economy and it’s def a game of chicken, a dangerous one, but it’s on now.
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Originally Posted by Daly
Trade wars ultimately lead to military conflict.
Chop suey, nerds.
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Originally Posted by Daly
https://i.imgur.com/cxPMkVb.jpg
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Originally Posted by cleatus
Ppl seriously need to be checking on their grandparents who got too interested in politics and dont understand how the game is played i.e that it's all propaganda pretty much
When we cripple China’s economy, who is going to buy our T-Bills to fund our massive deficits?Quote:
Originally Posted by blakethe US would absolutely kill china in a trade war if the US people were solidly behind doing so, which they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmick
china is completely reliant on exports, and 20% of their exports go to the US alone. in contrast, only 8% of US exports go to china. tariffs on exports would hurt the US. they would cripple china.
one thing the chinese have going for them, though, is that it's a communist country without elections. US policies would be subject to change every few years, and they would likely change re china if the economy isn't doing well. china might just have to wait out the next president and hope that both parties don't ultimately unify against it.
All trade wars do is shrink the economic pie and make each nation poorer.
The 96% of people who already do.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiWhen we cripple China’s economy, who is going to buy our T-Bills to fund our massive deficits?Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
All trade wars do is shrink the economic pie and make each nation poorer.
Don’t confuse China holding only 4% of US Treasuries as being equal to only *currently* buying 4% of new issues, as the extant outstanding federal debt held by non-government entities is many times more than our annual current deficits.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThe 96% of people who already do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayjami
Instead, look at the ratio of the US’ trade deficit with China to its total annual federal deficit plus rollover of existing debt, as the former reflects the pool of dollar holdings the Chinese can readily invest in new issues of US Treasuries, while the latter reflects the total annual sales of Treasuries.
The US trade deficit with China was $419 billion in 2018, while the federal budget deficit in 2019 is estimated to be about $1.3 trillion. The total outstanding federal debt is about $20 trillion, with an average maturity of probably about 10 years, meaning about $2 trillion would need to be rolled over annually over absent the need of additional borrowings. That would mean the Treasury would need to sell about $3.3 trillion in 2019 for rollover and deficit coverage.
Assuming China invests its entire US trade deficit in US treasuries, China would be expected to buy about 13% of US Treasuries in 2019. Suddenly holding those funds back from the Treasury auctions would definitely cause a spike in US Treasuries rates, spook the stock market, and likely trigger the start of recession without the Fed stepping in to replace China as a buyer in that market.
Every company or wealthy person keeps two sets of books. One is the actual income and the other is taxable income. Any idiot that believes a tax return is a real reflection of actual income by any measure is a clueless moron.
BOOQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by cleatus
Ppl seriously need to be checking on their grandparents who got too interested in politics and dont understand how the game is played i.e that it's all propaganda pretty much
Please tell me exactly when you anticipate either party passing anything remotely close to balanced budget.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyabsent the need of additional borrowings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don’t. Not anytime soon. My point was that the size of the federal deficit does not indicate the total amount of *funds the Treasury needs to raise with new issues because the annual deficit figure does not include the existing debt that is scheduled to mature that year. Ignoring rollover can dramatically understate how much the Treasury needs to raise with debt if the level of outstanding debt is high from a number of large prior annual deficits, which is surely the current case.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiPlease tell me exactly when you anticipate either party passing anything remotely close to balanced budget.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyDon’t confuse China holding only 4% of US Treasuries as being equal to only *currently* buying 4% of new issues, as the extant outstanding federal debt held by non-government entities is many times more than our annual current deficits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Instead, look at the ratio of the US’ trade deficit with China to its total annual federal deficit plus rollover of existing debt, as the former reflects the pool of dollar holdings the Chinese can readily invest in new issues of US Treasuries, while the latter reflects the total annual sales of Treasuries.
The US trade deficit with China was $419 billion in 2018, while the federal budget deficit in 2019 is estimated to be about $1.3 trillion. The total outstanding federal debt is about $20 trillion, with an average maturity of probably about 10 years, meaning about $2 trillion would need to be rolled over annually over absent the need of additional borrowings. That would mean the Treasury would need to sell about $3.3 trillion in 2019 for rollover and deficit coverage.
Assuming China invests its entire US trade deficit in US treasuries, China would be expected to buy about 13% of US Treasuries in 2019. Suddenly holding those funds back from the Treasury auctions would definitely cause a spike in US Treasuries rates, spook the stock market, and likely trigger the start of recession without the Fed stepping in to replace China as a buyer in that market.
Well thought out Mubles and everything here is true. But the point is others will step in Fed or no. The whole thing doesn’t come crashing down for the US, which was the original point.
Here is a secret for you. Neither party will ever pass a balanced budget in the next 50 years. They can’t. It’s the inflation that keeps it all going for literally the entire world.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiPlease tell me exactly when you anticipate either party passing anything remotely close to balanced budget.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly