My first 2 unders got pounded, and my NE moneyline lost.
Nice 0-3 start. Now have dropped 4 straight in NFL for first time this season.
SF under, 7-0 in late 2nd, is promising,
If SD State covers later, the day won't be horrendous.
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My first 2 unders got pounded, and my NE moneyline lost.
Nice 0-3 start. Now have dropped 4 straight in NFL for first time this season.
SF under, 7-0 in late 2nd, is promising,
If SD State covers later, the day won't be horrendous.
Those wouldn’t happen to be weather unders?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Patriots - what possible reason could there have been?
We need to have a talk. I’m worried.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Don't worry. Take it from someone who has been there many times before. A few more weeks of this and you wont feel anything anymore.
One of these weeks was inevitable. I've skated through the entire season without any real losing week. Had to happen, I guess.
Bad week to bet unders. Look at the scores today.
Unders 5-5 today weren’t they?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Should be 6-5 after tonight’s game.
Saw a lot of high scores.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogUnders 5-5 today weren’t they?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Should be 6-5 after tonight’s game.
Maybe mostly my three :(
Wow. If I was that guy who needed the Raiders to win to pocket $6M and lost the game like that after they were ahead for 59 minutes I would be going insane now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamWow. If I was that guy who needed the Raiders to win to pocket $6M and lost the game like that after they were ahead for 59 minutes I would be going insane now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Its a fair point. That said the other 3 dudes that had Pitt are going crazy.
My guess is we wake up to the news that they agreed to a 4 way $1.5M chop.
Im generally on team no hedge but for this particular night this guy should have been on the line with casino marketing taking out as big a marker as they would let him draw to put on the Pitt ML. If they let him bet 500K…… guy could get greedy and want to play it out with some money already in hand.
The casino said they would not accept the ticket as collateral to hedge. Have to bring in your own money.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Its a fair point. That said the other 3 dudes that had Pitt are going crazy.
My guess is we wake up to the news that they agreed to a 4 way $1.5M chop.
Im generally on team no hedge but for this particular night this guy should have been on the line with casino marketing taking out as big a marker as they would let him draw to put on the Pitt ML. If they let him bet 500K…… guy could get greedy and want to play it out with some money already in hand.
The contest for this week was unusual because it was split into 2 parts. 16a and 16b. A = any game on Thursday or Saturday. B = any game Sunday or Monday. So the 4 remaining contestants gotta sweat it out again tomorrow and Monday.
And the casino said they would not facilitate a chop. I guess they could hire a lawyer to work something out.
There are 4 players left and I checked what teams they had left to pick for Sunday/Monday
Looks like it will be 2 on Tampa Bay and 2 on Chargers
The guy who needed the Raiders to win will most likely be on the Chargers. It was 4th and 1 late in the game and a stop wins him 6 million. Didn't work out. And now he's gonna go down in flames with the Chargers losing to rusty Nick Foles.
I didn't realize Foles was the QB for Colts. Surprised line is only 4. Seems like it should be higher.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Its a fair point. That said the other 3 dudes that had Pitt are going crazy.
My guess is we wake up to the news that they agreed to a 4 way $1.5M chop.
Im generally on team no hedge but for this particular night this guy should have been on the line with casino marketing taking out as big a marker as they would let him draw to put on the Pitt ML. If they let him bet 500KÂ…Â… guy could get greedy and want to play it out with some money already in hand.
I can’t imagine sitting on that ticket at halftime. The Raiders have blown like an absurd amount of halftime leads. Would be 2 weeks in a row most likely if not for a damn miracle. When you looked at the game, it was an easy Raiders pick in weather. Big strong back, strong armed QB, receiver who excelled in Green Bay. But it’s the Raiders and Josh McDaniels is going to Josh. Always an assistant .
I have a disturbing amount of money on the NYK ML. I had it circled all week. I can’t even go visit with anyone until this is over. I was solid in my analysis when I looked at it. Sixers on road AIDS and looking good after home win streak to inflate the odds. Knicks at home. Home teams on Christmas. Checked all the boxes. As tip approaches, you start thinking I have a boatload on the damn Knicks.
Green Bay +165 at Miami
NBA ploppy picks
Memphis -8 at Golden State (Curry out, Wiggins out, Draymond Green questionable)
Boston -5.5 vs Milwaukee
Maybe I've lost my touch in NFL.
5 losses in a row, and now Miami has hung a 10 on the board in just 6 minutes.
Man I fucked up. Passed up +245 hedge hoping the Knicks would extend lead a little more and I could turn it into virtual freeroll. Got greedy and may get burnt. That was as good a hedge spot as it would get.
Then it dropped to 7-10. Had my finger hovering over 1000 to win 1950 live on Sixers even in last minute to hedge and lessen exposure. Instead they don’t call foul on Sixers that was obvious foul, dude hits halfcourt shot at buzzer, and it drops from +195 and more with free throws to +106 that isn’t even worth the hedge.
Drove back down the street and jumping in shower and hoping Knicks get off to hot start and I can hedge before going to dinner. If Knicks pull it out that run saved me money, but I legit threw mid 4 figures on Knicks and would have liked to lessen exposure a little. I loved Knicks side, but kind of fired more than normal as I have to switch all my accounts to Ohio-based accounts anyway come 1/1 and figured we’d go out with bang or whimper as I was going to Pittsburgh for NYE and figure it would be fun to pick up $11k as a goodbye to PA sports books.
Here is to a solid second half. They should be up much more and that makes me nervous.
Live
Single
Dec 25• 2022
Ticket ID: 533xxxxxxxx
PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks
Moneyline: PHI 76ers
Odds:
+270
Wager:$1000.00 Payout: $3700.00
Not getting greedy again. . Still heavily invested in Knicks holding on, but worst case we can throw another chunk on Georgia and this half’s my exposure. Glad I grabbed it. Right back to 4 as I drove back down the street. Live odds are insane. I had grabbed +205 and it jumped to +270 and I had to gladly approve odds change.
Providing a great fade opportunity for the forum as I can’t win a game atm. This is some verm shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Up 9 in third with upside of $4720 and downside of $2300. Of course the comeback and downside wins.
Scratch offs for everyone for Christmas!
49’ers/Packers
Joe Davis is aids
Sorry to see what happened BCR. I thought you were going to get this one.
In the meantime, Green Bay down 7 at the half. I can't even blame washed up Aaron Rodgers. Fucking defense gave up 20 in the half. Not fun having to count on Rodgers to get you back a touchdown when Miami is scoring well.
JeffDime: Glad it worked out after all. Merry Xmas BCR. Take a breath now.
That didn’t exactly work out. Could have been worse, but certainly didn’t work out.
Sorry man. I had absolutely no clue about your posts or the game. Congratulated by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Being this removed from NBA is a Christmas blessing
NHL off from Friday - Tues. civilized
Anyway let's throw one more pick onto the pile, in this battle of shit teams:
Denver -3 -108 at Rams
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Good point. I meant I’m glad that you were able to mitigate the damage. Certainly +270 had to be near the peak. But I know it sucks. Knicks couldn’t of played better offensively first three quarters and worse in the last.
After the Tribe second half run and dodgers -1.5 bets I was up about $40k on the year. Then I started hot in CFB early Cavs games and I recall it was $57k at one point and I was swearing at using legal books as everyone had cautioned me against.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Good point. I meant IÂ’m glad that you were able to mitigate the damage. Certainly +270 had to be near the peak. But I know it sucks. Knicks couldnÂ’t of played better offensively first three quarters and worse in the last.
True to form, I think I’ve heebed off 2/3 of it in last six-eight weeks and paying my tax guy to do all the itemized chicanery will be a bigger bill than my tax bill after the next week. I’ll be able to buy a dinner and a bottle of wine and toast the two years of my life I took off by sportsbetting per normal. And that’s a better than most years.
I’d like to say I won’t do it again next year, but PFA is a safe place for our shared sickness. Not everyone can be Druff or Daly or San
The guy who almost won the 6 million yesterday ended up taking the Dolphins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Not something you see everyday. The Titans, losers of 5 straight and now in a tie for 1st place in their division will basically throw the game against Dallas Thursday night and rest multiple starters.
A win or loss means nothing as they still have to beat Jax in Week 18 to win the division so using the extra rest as a way to be better prepared makes sense, even if it isn’t the best competitive look for the NFL.
Wish I just stuck to the Packers, who came back from an early deficit to win 26-20. Miami didn't score in the second half, so my +165 hit.
Then I stupidly threw on the Broncos in the battle of shit teams, and it turned out the Rams were the ones which came to play today. What an awful game.
Hopefully Celtics can cover. Need them to win by 6, it's a 14 point game after 3. The lowlight was Jalen Brown getting to shoot 3 free throws with 1s left in the first half, and bricking all 3.
Tampa ml and Brady over 1.5 TDs
-125 but at legal book it is +100 due to boost
Merry christmas everyone
Easily got Celtics as they dominated 2H.
Now just need a Memphis blowout and I'll have a decent day.
Sigh one called back first half.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Arizona is awful but apparently Tampa is worse than I thought.
Memphis so bad today. Gives up 99 to GS with no curry. Awful.
Which site do you guys use for public betting percentages? Because I see two sites I always check, but there is often a big disparity and one has the Chargers getting like 85% action and the other shows it’s like 53/47. Is there a real time subscription service one that’s super accurate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Patrick everson is a great follow on twitter for ticket/handle %%. He gives a great breakdown by book and region (sometimes, as an example, LSU will have 60% of the handle in La but nation wide its 20%).
I was vacillating all day regarding tonight's NFL game. Decided to go with neither side, and take the under.
Chargers at Colts - Under 44.5
Z Moss opened at 59.5.
He had 24 touches last week (and 81 yards)
Chargers not good vs run
Line all the way down to 49.5
Chalk this up to “someone knows something”
Lines are completely blurred. No turning back
Parlay
Jim “Long Lehman” Cramer/Crypto/Legalized Wagering
cloud storage lulz