Three NCAAB games to bet on this afternoon/evening:
Maryland -1.5 vs UCLA
Duquense -3 -109 vs DePaul
Miami Ohio +15.5 -108 at Cincinnati
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Three NCAAB games to bet on this afternoon/evening:
Maryland -1.5 vs UCLA
Duquense -3 -109 vs DePaul
Miami Ohio +15.5 -108 at Cincinnati
Here's one NBA:
Detroit at Charlotte - Over 229.5
Bills line is down to 7.5 from 9. In what world is big money coming in on Dolphins? I guess it was the 9 people jumped on.
This really feels like people remembering what the Dolphins were a month ago, not what they have been the past few weeks.
Very odd lines this week, How in the hell is SFran only 3.5 favorites over Seattle? I have watched all games these 2 have played last 4 weeks. Seattle is awful bumsQuote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
Cincy 3.5 over Tampa, Same with these 2. I have seen all the games at least 4 weeks straight. Tampa is trash. I will be betting big on San Fran and Cincy this week.
People are saying SF has a bad record in Seattle lol different teams different times.
If San Fran can’t crush Seattle this week I have no Hope betting football. Same with Cincy should crush Tampa
Gonna take a whole lot more than this to get unstuck for this year. But I do like Antoine Rozner +1600 this week for DP Tour stop. Dean been playing well but just seems to always fall short and Detry half the people betting him confuse with Peters.
Habs and red wings
Two big dogs need one to win.
San we miss you
Yeah I've noticed San absent last 2 days from the thread.
Unlike him.
My first 3 games had 2 easy wins (Duquesne, Detroit over), and one blowout loss (Miami OH).
Maryland actually has zero points through almost 5 min. Not good.
Maryland was my favorite pick today and they're getting destroyed. Funny how that happens.
Looks like 2-2 day for me across both leagues.
I have no edge in hockey anymore - no matter what we expect, random shit continues to happen this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I have decent models - I test my picks with others. My process is sound.
You ever look at psuOtto’s (twitter) results this year? Literally everyone who is anyone follows him. You have in him a very transparent guy who was there at the start - the “1P over days”. He gave birth to the analytics movement in hockey as far as I’m concerned. psuOtto is getting destroyed this year.
I don’t know what’s going on. I have no edge. Losing and wasting time is like going to the dentist. I don’t gamble just to gamble.
I don’t like the NBA any more and don’t think it can be beat.
That’s kinda where I’m at. I am staring down the barrel of legalized wagering coming in January (brick and mortar only). It will in no way approximate South Point or Circa. I am concerned I will be shutout from offshore. I ain’t betting legalized odds.
I have the capacity to shift gears in life pretty easily. There is always something new that catches my interest. That’s kinda where I am at.
I liked the give and take the thread used to provide. There is a rule all sports wagerers should heed.
There are two types of people you should not tail: People who can not have a conversation about why they took a play. People that consolidate other cappers’ picks.
I selfishly wish you weren’t so busy but I have fond memories. I’m glad for ya. You will have time for this nonsense before ya know it.
I agree with all of this. Seattle has been total trash and Cinci has been on fire.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETVery odd lines this week, How in the hell is SFran only 3.5 favorites over Seattle? I have watched all games these 2 have played last 4 weeks. Seattle is awful bumsQuote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
Cincy 3.5 over Tampa, Same with these 2. I have seen all the games at least 4 weeks straight. Tampa is trash. I will be betting big on San Fran and Cincy this week.
People are saying SF has a bad record in Seattle lol different teams different times.
If San Fran can’t crush Seattle this week I have no Hope betting football. Same with Cincy should crush Tampa
Sorry but this SF game is another trap line, similar to the Minnesota/Detroit one we just saw.
Mind you, I don't feel about Seattle like I felt about the Lions. I was begging everyone I knew to lay off that Vikings bet they wanted to make.
Seattle is 7-6, but they haven't yet beaten a good team. Their victories were over Denver (awful), Detroit (mediocre), Arizona (bad), LA Chargers (inconsistent), Arizona again, NY Giants (in a tailspin), and the LA Rams (bad). A victory over the Niners would be their biggest accomplishment this season.
Also, the Niners have won six in a row, including that drubbing of Brady 35-7 on Sunday. The last time they allowed more than 17 points was October 23. No team has allowed fewer points this season than the Niners, and only one (Buffalo) is anywhere close.
I get all that. However, Vegas doesn't give anything away, and usually when there's a line like this, it means something. Remember, the Seahawks are just a hair away from getting into that playoff zone, whereas the Niners have much less to play for tonight.
Seattle +160 vs San Francisco (+3 ok)
Regarding Tampa/Cincy, I haven't decided upon that one yet. I might just lay off of it.
I hope you are right. I already bet Seahawks moneyline a few days ago. I am also on the Bucs moneyline. I like Titans +3 vs Chargers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The minute I seen the line on SF/Seattle it screamed trap. I have been gambling since I was 16, No kidding it looks like a trap lineQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Couldn’t disagree more this is like det/minn. Detroit flat out playing better then Minnesota. I watched Detroit totally destroy Jacksonville the week before. Seattle has been awful
You bet 100 games a week. When I make a big bet in football it’s 100% me watching the teams play week in week out. You comparing Seattle to Detroit shows You obviously don’t watch the games.
You think the sharps are always right? You don’t think I know last week when Cincy line went from 5.5 to 3.5 that a ton of money came in on Cleveland? I went and bet more, Why ? Because I watched a bunch of Cincy and Cleveland games and a stuck with what I believed Cincy was much better and should cover. Should I have said like you oh no the sharps are betting.lol I was worried maybe some big news came out but no just a group pounding Cleveland.
Regardless what happens if you have watched Seattle you couldn’t bet a dollar on this team, Line looks like a trap let me fire lol.
I have already made a big bet on SF -3 and will be betting more. I believe if SF don’t play 100% they still win and cover
Now betting against Brady is always dangerous but bottom line that team is awful. I will be betting Cincy again this week. If I lose to Tampa and Seattle then so be it lol. I can’t unsee what I have seen from these 2 teams
I get it oh this team needs a win for playoffs, Yes some teams need a win and some teams are just awful and won’t get one, lol
Is it possible SF don’t play all out and try to get healthy for a playoff run? Yes it’s possible but how is Seattle gonna score? If SF plays defense and runs the ball all night they still cover.
SF -3 big bet
Time will tell, Cheers
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
Just how this year has been. I was on Valimaki for years and bricked. Guys form has been dogshit. Soft field this week and I see him 40-1, but I immediately pass based on form. Wake up and the cocksucker shoots 10 under to lead the tournament. Just sucks to see a guy I was on for so long up there. Well too late to take him now. I know Daly was on his ass too at one time. Think was the same week. I just dony want to see his ass with the trophy
I'm with you on SF tonight and Bills are now down to -7 what the fuck is going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
Purdy, who is still hurting somewhat, is starting tonight.
That's probably not the best thing for the Niners, unless he's really feeling close to 100%.
The bills have had trouble covering which is why I took det on thanksgiving. Probably can tease down to 1 with someone and be good to go. With that said Miami was awful last game, real bad. I think Miami was overrated.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerI'm with you on SF tonight and Bills are now down to -7 what the fuck is going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I wouldn’t be afraid to bet bills -7 only because Miami looked so bad. Not supposed to put a ton of weight into last weeks results but Miami looked so bad I can’t overlook that.
Not sure if I am betting the bills this week. I was looking at Minnesota a team that has been overrated but are a decent team that had their ass kicked last week. I look for Minnesota to have a big game this week
San I’m ahead on hockey this year but nowhere close to other years.
Wish I had more time too. Im less tha ~5 years from having too much time.
With legalized books you do get some perks. Boosts and super boosts. Running about 80% winners on them. Typically max bet is 50-100 but when you’re getting even money on a -300 fave it’s quite profitable.
Other boosts are taking even money props and they boost it to +250 or higher.
It’s a grind but it’s easy profits.
Anyway, I feel like the regulars in this thread are like a little sportsbetting family, and it pains me to be directly against the Niners pick tonight that some of you are making.
Always much nicer to be on the same side, which we usually are, but I guess tonight is an exception. As a Seahawks bettor, I am a bit concerned how Seattle is going to score very much against a team which hasn't allowed more than 17 points since October 23, but I guess we shall see.
I’m on SF -3.5 and -6 +136. Bet before I read your post, so feeling less great about it given your NFL success.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hit the Cavs +2 and -7 +255 last night. I know you dabble on my Cavs totals a bit. Dallas has slowest pace in the league so kind of an auto fire. Was busy so I didn’t post it here, but thought I’d leave this for future Cavs total decisions.
YTD
12-4 against the bottom 15 paced teams
109 ppg, 99.9 opponent ppg
6-7 against the top 14 paced teams
113 ppg, 112.4 opponent ppg
Already have Bills in a teaser and thinking about taking them -7 now. I think everyone was just betting it down because of the over 8/over 7 number. IF it goes to 6.5 I will be scared to death I am missing something very big. Miami has LIVED on the big play. Tua ADOT is astronomical, historic. If the weather doesn't magically change, that deep game is gone. Tua does not have a strong arm either to fight through the wind and cold, man it just really feels like Miami should struggle big time. It was 55 degrees last game and Tua had a sideline heater. He is a California kid then SEC kid who quite possibly has played in Cold weather like 3 times. Buffalo cold December weather? Probably never. He hasn't played in a game (outside that 55 degree one) that has been under 64 degrees all year. Not even in preseason.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETThe bills have had trouble covering which is why I took det on thanksgiving. Probably can tease down to 1 with someone and be good to go. With that said Miami was awful last game, real bad. I think Miami was overrated.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I wouldn’t be afraid to bet bills -7 only because Miami looked so bad. Not supposed to put a ton of weight into last weeks results but Miami looked so bad I can’t overlook that.
Not sure if I am betting the bills this week. I was looking at Minnesota a team that has been overrated but are a decent team that had their ass kicked last week. I look for Minnesota to have a big game this week
Lamar Jackson officially ruled out Saturday. Huntley starting.
No hard feelings, After all it’s entertaining to bet sports and if we beat the book even better. Everyone has reasons they like one team over the other.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Did I mention your defense gave up over 700 rushing last 3 games? Never mind lol
Don’t know much about huntley but if I remember right he is pretty decent QB.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I thought 49ers were going to roll Seahawks when I first saw this line Monday. I hate going against Druff just putting a sprinkle on this one.
NBA Clippers resting Kawhi , PG and others still like them +5.5 Suns in a bad rut right now and have guys out as well including Ayton.
Grizzlies -2.5 no Jrue Holiday and home court advantage lean
NBA
Memphis -3 vs Milwaukee
Middleton probably getting tossed for bitch trip move. Good for our betQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33Middleton probably getting tossed for bitch trip move. Good for our betQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
I played another few hours. My brother said he saw you crushing some lady HU recently. I plaved 125 hrs in October and 77 in November at Commerce for that whopping 4$ an hour rake back. My gf just got hired there to take advantage of the 4k bonus for poker dealers so probably be playing a lot more up there the next 4 months.. May gonna take a vacation somewhere before we spend 2 months in Vegas June and July.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
You went to 100-200 not long after we talked and looked like you chipped up quick. Do you know MAry that plays the 1-2?Asian lady super nice Hmong to be exact. She lives in Vegas and been playing mid limit and hi limit for many years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
He is an average backup and not much more.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETDon’t know much about huntley but if I remember right he is pretty decent QB.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
49ers defense is so fucking fast Seattle can't handle them.
What a horrible call on Bosa. That was game over go to sleep early.
Lol have to fade the refs now, Call back pick 6 on BS Call. Still won’t be enough for Seattle
Never has 15 points looked down insurmountable.
I think I deserve bonus points on my Memphis NBA pick though.
Great start to the week!
Good game, guys. Actually had a chance to tie before that 55 yard drive iced the game.
Guess you were all right to go against me here.
I broke even today anyway because my Memphis NBA pick won by like 40.
Funny you put it was right to go against you, I put out SF and you attacked the pick. Know one thing when I put Big bet next to pick it’s because I have seen both teams plenty, I know who the best teams is, I know the injury’s, I know who the “ Sharps” have (Seattle) and I have at least one mid 4 figure bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
BCR should have learned that last week and you this week
Does this guarantee a win? No of course not but I like my chances.
Maybe go back and see my win% in this thread when I put “big bet”
So notice the difference when I put what I am betting, Most times I put what I am betting
don’t have a great read on the game and state as much, small bet or coin flip etc.
BTW this game was much closer then it should have been, SF is 3 touchdowns better then the bums Seattle
You picking Seattle here shows me you don’t know football that well and you have been running on the good side of EV for example under 40.5 tie game 20-20 and you win lol.
Lesson here respect 4bet BIg bet or pay the price
Best of luck to all, Even the haters
Some comments to 4BET:
Of course it wasn't a lock, that's why they call it gambling.
I have bet 65 times on the NFL this season. I won 45, lost 19, and tied 1. This includes some semi-big moneyline dogs, and zero moneyline favorites.
It is not fair to say I'm just running well. Yes, running well is a big part of it, as no NFL handicapper has ever won at this clip (70.3%) long term, and I won't either. However, note that in my first 33 picks, every result but one was either a win, a loss of 0.5-1 point, or a game where I was ahead at some point in the 4th. So out of my first 33 picks, 32 of them either won or were very close. Seriously, go look it up.
I did run well with that "under 40.5" pick you mentioned. I did NOT run well with that awful Tampa game where I was ahead 16-3 with minutes left on a +165 pick, and lost it.
You won your big bet, and that's great. I have lost 19 times out of 65. This was one of them. That's all there is to say. I'll be thrilled to have future NFL seasons which are even half as good as this one.