Your past record is cash mr dogQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
2-2. Neither dog won so 0 unitsQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Hopefully people avoided the degen pick
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Your past record is cash mr dogQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog2-2. Neither dog won so 0 unitsQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Hopefully people avoided the degen pick
I have a reliable source who loves these 2 games:
BYU-Stanford over 57.5
Purdue -10.5 Indiana
Normally don’t do a lot of teasers but have did well with them last few days, Seems everyone likes Ohio st, I will take Michigan here,because their all star running back isn’t 100% I have to play in a rare college/ pro mix teaser. Michigan + 15 over Ohio st, Tennessee in the pros tomorrow + 8 1/2
I have Wisconson at -3.5 and OSU -9.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
OSU was another one of his big plays I missed, albeit at 7.5.
Saw Titans/Bengals and I just can't figure that one out. Cinci has been scoring a ton of points WITHOUT Chase the last few weeks.(that was a very good Steelers defense they just put up 40 on last week) . Why do you like Titans? I know Cinci real well them not so much.
BREAKING NEWS EDIT - https://twitter.com/Covers/status/15...QpykfpELRJ9liw
The line instantly went to 1.5 as I tried to grab Titans at 2.5 mother fuckers
Michigan probably gonna get killed, Only offensive they have is corum and he went limping off about 3 minutes into the game. Tennessee is 7-1 last 8 games and 8-0 last eight against the spread. Tennessee is a team that always plays hard. They went into KC as a big dog and took the game into overtime. Really haven’t been impressed with Cincy this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerI have Wisconson at -3.5 and OSU -9.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
OSU was another one of his big plays I missed, albeit at 7.5.
Saw Titans/Bengals and I just can't figure that one out. Cinci has been scoring a ton of points WITHOUT Chase the last few weeks.(that was a very good Steelers defense they just put up 40 on last week) . Why do you like Titans? I know Cinci real well them not so much.
BREAKING NEWS EDIT - https://twitter.com/Covers/status/15...QpykfpELRJ9liw
The line instantly went to 1.5 as I tried to grab Titans at 2.5 mother fuckers
Yeah with Chase out I like Titans now too. Just checked the analytics on Titans pass rush and it is in top 5 (and has been rising fast lately), Bengals OLine is atrocious.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETMichigan probably gonna get killed, Only offensive they have is corum and he went limping off about 3 minutes into the game. Tennessee is 7-1 last 8 games and 8-0 last eight against the spread. Tennessee is a team that always plays hard. They went into KC as a big dog and took the game into overtime. Really haven’t been impressed with Cincy this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I read the words but I had no self control. I went under 57 small.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRI’d bet under before I bet over. I think Ohio State is fake news. Doesn’t mean they don’t win easily, but I wouldn’t bet on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
.Ohio State could win because Michigan’s QB is horrible and they might not be able to simply gash Ohio State for 7 yards per carry all day like last year, but their OL and defense is quite good and they might be able to simply keep the ball away bludgeoning us.
Iowa had a legit defense, and we put up 54 just through defensive turnovers and team speed. but in general I think Ohio State would get curbstomped by Georgia and lose by 35. I’m negative on CJ Stroud. I think some NFL team is going to deeply regret their high draft pick. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and Ohio State looks great and wins by 31, but I don’t have any useful insight to you. I think Michigan is fake as a true contender as their QB is horrible, while Ohio State is fake on various fronts. Just inconsistent. The wideouts and RB attrition through injury could really show up against Michigan.
There isn’t a bet I could make where I’d feel comfortable. Michigan played their game last year and it still ended up 47-27 or something like that. Ohio State games tend to get crazy and go much higher than you’d expect on paper. It’s total stay away for me. Neither team has really played anyone. It could be like Ohio State-ND and end up 21-10, yet 45-41 wouldn’t shock me either. I don’t even see any props I like.
Edit
I was gang raped.
BCR nailed it
Also this is a revenge game to Tennessee, Cincy kicked last second FG to knock them out of the playoffs, I think Cincy had a better team last year also.
First two looking good!
44 points in early 3Q for Clemson game
Madison up 26 in 3Q
Who know Michigan could score without the best running back in college football
You can live bet Ohio State around +330 now. That’s what I just got and feel like it’s 45/55 proposal. +550 now. Of course you may just turn one likely loser into two. Ohio State +5.5 probably means you win that if you lose total. As bad as they’ve been, I expect it will tighten stillQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI read the words but I had no self control. I went under 57 small.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Edit
I was gang raped.
BCR nailed it
Wisconsin-3
I don't know what game Day is watching. Opted to punt and kick a FG on 2 clear go for it downs the way the game flow is going. I dont think he has noticed his defense isn't playing well and has already allowed 31 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou can live bet Ohio State around +330 now. That’s what I just got and feel like it’s 45/55 proposal. +550 now. Of course you may just turn one likely loser into two. Ohio State +5.5 probably means you win that if you lose total. As bad as they’ve been, I expect it will tighten stillQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
2-0 start so far, neither being close.
Would be a great day if I could hit the other 3 plus the NZ game ok25 posted.
As it stands, I'm up over 4 units now in NCAAF and still have a monster NFL record.
It's been the basketball (college & pro) which has dragged me back somewhat.
39-34 AustraliaQuote:
Originally Posted by ok25
:solidgold
And in case anyone was wondering, yes I had Utah St. +16.5 yesterday in a freak end of game beat that is on the very short list for worst gambling beats of all time.
I have FAU +7.5. They missed a walk off FG attempt and now game is going to OT. The way things are going I would estimate it is 75% chance they cover in OT.
Great pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.
The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.
The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.
It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
How did Oregon State move from +3/+130 this morning to -1 at game time? Was an injury disclosed?
Wow. I guess I got good value. Sadly they are down 7-3 early.
I had Michigan +8.5Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETMichigan probably gonna get killed, Only offensive they have is corum and he went limping off about 3 minutes into the game. Tennessee is 7-1 last 8 games and 8-0 last eight against the spread. Tennessee is a team that always plays hard. They went into KC as a big dog and took the game into overtime. Really haven’t been impressed with Cincy this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/sta...446720/photo/1
Yikes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Conventional wisdom I supposeQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGreat pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.
The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.
The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.
It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
Last year the books took a licking on NFL teasers and legal books responded by charging more (ridiculous) juice. My personal thinking is that there is no more efficient market in the world than NFL lines. Teasers allow you to move off that highly refined number.
There is a time and a season
It’s your money and you can do what you want
Thanks, Agree I really don’t like teasers that much but the fact Michigan running back was hurt thought I might need it plus lifting a +2 1/2 pro game to 8 1/2 seemed to make sense hereQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGreat pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.
The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.
The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.
It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
Wisconsin looking like trash, Need a pick or fumble to get this offense going
Oregon too good.
My inability to hit moneyline dogs continues, even though it went off as a slight favorite.
You see Druff unlike you we don't think we have a system that can beat the books, we know we aren't going to so this shit is mainly for fun. We know teasers are shit EV but we don't care! This is entertainment and nothing more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGreat pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.
The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.
The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.
It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
I mean we all know how betting 50 random basketball games a week is such +EV right?
NBH, teasers were heavily studied and proven to be highly -EV, because they underpay you what you should otherwise get.
If you still want to play them, that's fine, but honestly this is well established. You'll win a lot more parlaying.
NFL is the best thing to tease but only if it's fairly evenly matched and only if the lines I mentioned. I used to do teasers all the time when they were +EV to do, but they degraded lines enough to stop that. But if you stick to the guidelines I posted, they aren't too bad.
Oregon State teasing me by running off a quick 21-3, and now just down by 3.
None of these comebacks have held up for me lately. Let's see if this one can.
Wow, Oregon went for it up 34-31, 4th and 1 on own 29. Failed.
:baddecision
Now Oregon State can take the lead.
No idea why they didn't punt there.
Edit: Yep. TD. 38-34 now. Holllllld
Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerYou see Druff unlike you we don't think we have a system that can beat the books, we know we aren't going to so this shit is mainly for fun. We know teasers are shit EV but we don't care! This is entertainment and nothing more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I mean we all know how betting 50 random basketball games a week is such +EV right?
I can beat the books easily betting live when i'm goofed up on acid. My results are undeniable. Laugh if you want but I somewhat proved it with my posting record
Volume/Value betting is a grind that similar to poker only a few percent have the discipline to make a worthwhile profit (Don't include myself)
Firing Vanderbilt +14. Wisconsin a joke 1st and goal from the 5 yard line with 40 seconds left 4 flags later morons end up 1st and goal from the 30 could have tied and gave me some hope for win in OT
I think I've got Oregon State. Oregon just had the ball 5 yards from goal with 1st down, and couldn't get it across in 4 tries. They couldn't kick a FG because that would still have left them down 1.
Oregon State has the ball with 2 mins left.
NCAAB
Central Michigan +9.5 -106 at California Baptist
Firing on Vandy leaves me hoping Tennessee don’t care about this game. I mean 2 or 3 weeks ago they were #1 in some polls then get pounded by Georgia and SC now this. How do they get up this game now that National title is off the table
I had Vandy, so to answer your question yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
This is one of the all time gut punch days for me. Losing the games I am supposed to lose. And losing in spectacular fashion the ones there is seemingly no way I can lose.
We are not done yet, Hopefully Tennessee will give us some cheap points as the game goes on. They don’t want their guys getting hurtQuote:
Originally Posted by KalamI had Vandy, so to answer your question yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
This is one of the all time gut punch days for me. Losing the games I am supposed to lose. And losing in spectacular fashion the ones there is seemingly no way I can lose.
Sorry. I regret to inform you that isn't how weeks like this work. It isn't a roller coaster. It is a free fall. Sorry you had to come along as collateral damage.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETWe are not done yet, Hopefully Tennessee will give us some cheap points as the game goes on. They don’t want their guys getting hurtQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
As usual I win in football and lose in basketball.
4-1 in NCAAF, including a +130 win
0-1 in NCAAB
Breakers looking good so far (thanks ok25)
Cover with 31 extraQuote:
Originally Posted by ok25
65-47 at HT
116-79
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHQxIMCBUnM
Nice record in NCAAF, Wish I would have tailed. After a good Thursday and Friday late yesterday went down hill. Not horrible,even betting 2 complete trash teams yesterday still even last 4 days pending outcome of 2nd leg of teaser tenn + 8 1/2 this will put me up 6 units ( some love to put in units). Will hope to get back on winning track in NFL today. I agree with NBH at the end of the day this is just entertainmentQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff