Todd, serious question. Not trolling. Do you really think you can actually make a profit sports betting, or do you do it for fun?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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Todd, serious question. Not trolling. Do you really think you can actually make a profit sports betting, or do you do it for fun?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I'm going to continue firing at NCAAB but change up the process a bit.
Here's a moneyline
St. Joseph's +130 vs Georgia
49ers now -10 up from -7.5.
Yes can’t decide here, SF obviously far better team but will they pour it on tonight? I don’t know. A lot of players out for the cardsQuote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
Line just dropped to 9 1/2 hmmm. Edit bet SF small
We are getting destroyed in this oneQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Really liked this pick, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETWe are getting destroyed in this oneQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Just been ice cold past week.
Man I hate 49ers regardless what happens here, I mostly avoid betting with or against. I just bought out live so will lose juice and move on
7-0 run to start 2nd half, Maybe some hope!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffReally liked this pick, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
Just been ice cold past week.
Great 2H but probably won't be enough time. Too much of a beatdown in the first.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET7-0 run to start 2nd half, Maybe some hope!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
NCAA starting 10:00 am est today. Toledo taking some cash so I fired -9. Degen bet for early action
Just wading in. 49 college games left and no Druff. Someone needs to wake him up.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I saw the live lines toward the end of the game and Toledo was taking all the live money and it didn’t make sense. Got lucky - I knew absolutely nothing.
Two high profile ploppy type games.
I’ll keep mucking around as time allows.
Good bet, I almost live bet EC earlier + 5.5 but didn’t pull the tigger. Was strange I believe EC was up like 8 and live line was +5.5. I need Sam Houston to hold to bail outQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarJust wading in. 49 college games left and no Druff. Someone needs to wake him up.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I saw the live lines toward the end of the game and Toledo was taking all the live money and it didn’t make sense. Got lucky - I knew absolutely nothing.
Two high profile ploppy type games.
I’ll keep mucking around as time allows.
NCAA Football
Bowling Green +190 at Ohio
Also
Bowling Green at Ohio - Under 52.5
St. Bonaventure vs Southern Indiana - Under 137.5
George Washington vs UC San Diego - Under 138.5
Here's some more NCAAB which you'll have time to bet:
Nevada +165 at Kansas State (+5 ok)
U Louisiana Lafayette +1.5 at SMU
Sacramento State +155 at UC Davis
So far...
SD/George Washington under on pace to win, but it could still lose. Need fewer than 23 points scored in the final 4:27, in a game which isn't that close.
St. Bon / Indiana had a GREAT first half (54), but they've already run off 56 in the first 12.5 minutes of 2H, so that's a problem. I need fewer than 28 in the final 7.5 minutes, which is going to be tougher. Game isn't close.
Nevada/Kansas State has been close the whole way. Nevada led slightly most of the way, but now is down by 3. Really need this one.
SMU/Louisiana just started.
In football, Bowling Green ran off a TD in 1Q and it didn't look like either offense was playing well. Then Ohio kicked it into high gear in the 2nd and scored 4 TDs. Awful for both bets on this game. Not looking good.
Looks like both of those first 2 unders are going to lose. Awful to lose that St. Bonaventure under with a 54-point 1H. That one already is dead. SD under is getting fucked because George Washington got close, and now there's last minute fouling. Right now 135 points w/ 49s left. Hard to see a path to win this one.
I've done so badly on these totals in NCAAB. Might have to quit them.
Well this has the makings of a horrible day. I might have to let college sports go. Maybe try a bit more with football. But I'm just not getting basketball right, and I can feel it.
I tried 3 new things the past few months -- NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF betting. NFL has gone extremely well, as you've all seen. The college ones have not. I've also lost in NBA this year, which isn't new.
I'm not a degenerate who just tosses away $, so I might have to drop what isn't working for me.
I’m not interested in basketball but if I wanted to tackle it I’d have a Don Best account - if only to know what other people are working off of. Totals usually don’t wander too far from these #’s.
I’d obv share an account with a crew. It’s not cheap.
There’s a whole line of thinking involving big spreads and the resulting affect on totals that correlates pretty well. All kinds of metrics but I never synthesized anything into a model that worked.
I tried it a few years ago. I think I needed to limit my search to a subset of teams somehow. I was betting too many games and it was exhausting. I wasn’t prepared to bet large numbers. Don’t miss basketball for one single second.
I have no idea what your process was. Mysterious skunkworks I suppose.
Down 9 with 3:54 left, Nevada just ran off 9 straight points to tie in 2.5 minutes, then finally allowed a basket. Down 78-76 with 0:53 remaining.
Knowing my luck past week, they won't come back and win. This might just be to torture me further.
Edit: Wow, a three pointer. Now 79-78 with 35s left. Still not optimistic but this would be great to hit.
23s and Nevada has the ball, still 79-78.
gogogo
Awful. Intentional foul, crappy college free throw shooting only sees 1/2 made, and Kansas St makes a basket with 7s left. Nevada can't do anything with that 7s and it goes to OT, where I will probably lose.
Yup, complete meltdown in OT. I knew it. Their time to win was in the final seconds of the 2nd half. Epic comeback, epic 3-pointer, and then they just fucked up royally. They had the freaking ball with 14s and the lead and ended up in OT. Now they're down by 6 with 3 minutes left.
Louisiana game also not going well, and Sac State hasn't started yet. But yeah I could lose the first 4 here, and Bowling Green football game will either go 1-1 or 0-2, depending upon whether the under hits.
:gay2
@BCR
Ohio Michigan football under 56?
I saw 57 yesterday. Was that move a weather play? I kinda like under w/o weather.
Harbaugh Michigan around thanksgiving is a traditional fade
Really shitty lines for Thursday games. Thinking of teaser Det up to 15 1/2 and Dallas down to 4. Really would love to pile big on the chalks Buffalo and Dallas. Just don’t know here it seems Buffalo never puts anyone away big. They should have beat GB by 20+ but just didn’t pour it on. Dallas played the best game in years who knows if they can pour it on again.
I don't blame you if you don't trust my college picks right now, but I do like this one:
UC Riverside -1 at Abeline Christian
Bet this small, I believe abeline lost yesterday as a decent favoriteQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Florida Gulf Coast -6 vs Missouri KC (Ploppy bet)
I hadn't even looked at lines til now.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
Buffalo yeah who knows with how they have been playing lately. I would be taking the teaser the other way though, Buffalo -3.5. I think they win but I'm just iffy on the blowout scenario. Detroit fucked me last week. But not confident either way.
Lets see here....Cowboys -10 coming off an absolute destruction of the Vikes, Giants coming off getting destroyed. I think Dallas is going to be rolling but again 10 pts is just too many I'm teasing this one down to 4 and confident about it.
Patriots +2.5 vs the Vikes......another very interesting game. It is the "are the Vikings frauds game". They got obliterated by Dallas and looking back at their schedule, they have beat one good team and the rest of the wins are against bad teams. Seems like they can beat bad teams and struggle against the good ones. But am I really confident in Pats with that lucky ass walk off kick return? I'm probably just putting something on Pats moneyline I think it is a toss up. Or teasing the Pats up to 8.5....yeah I actually love that. Great number.
Early Ravens analysis......again love the under and -4. Lamar is a Florida kid and it really "feels" like he really does not like the cold that much, or hasn't really adjusted to it yet. They are still terrible at WR but the defense is just so good right now (and getting better with injured guys coming back) they won't need much offense to cover. This will be a higher scoring repeat of last week in much better balmy conditions. Ravens 23 Jags 10.
Hard for me to trust buffalo here, Gonna stay with Detroit + 15 1/2, Dallas -4 teaser. 10 is not a great number to tease off of but should get the cash.
I’m with you NBH. Happy Thanksgiving
I put zero thought into this +200 parlay and teaser. Just something to help me fight the effects of tryptophan.
The way you’re running lately, I’d take Chrissy Mitchell’s picks over yours lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I was just reviewing my picks and reminding myself who Chiefs were playing and checking on CLV. Oh yeah, the LOL Rams
I am going out of business soon (legalized wagering) so I’m winding up futures as a policy matter. I hold only two. Democratic Senate and LA Rams and Matt Stafford (Kershaw’s pal) to choke on a dick.
Looking good Willis
I’d bet under before I bet over. I think Ohio State is fake news. Doesn’t mean they don’t win easily, but I wouldn’t bet on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
.Ohio State could win because Michigan’s QB is horrible and they might not be able to simply gash Ohio State for 7 yards per carry all day like last year, but their OL and defense is quite good and they might be able to simply keep the ball away bludgeoning us.
Iowa had a legit defense, and we put up 54 just through defensive turnovers and team speed. but in general I think Ohio State would get curbstomped by Georgia and lose by 35. I’m negative on CJ Stroud. I think some NFL team is going to deeply regret their high draft pick. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and Ohio State looks great and wins by 31, but I don’t have any useful insight to you. I think Michigan is fake as a true contender as their QB is horrible, while Ohio State is fake on various fronts. Just inconsistent. The wideouts and RB attrition through injury could really show up against Michigan.
There isn’t a bet I could make where I’d feel comfortable. Michigan played their game last year and it still ended up 47-27 or something like that. Ohio State games tend to get crazy and go much higher than you’d expect on paper. It’s total stay away for me. Neither team has really played anyone. It could be like Ohio State-ND and end up 21-10, yet 45-41 wouldn’t shock me either. I don’t even see any props I like.
Knox first TD +1300
Stroud really reminds me of Haskins in the sense the moment he has to move his feet he’s significantly worse. He is a more accurate passer, but I wouldn’t draft him unless I had a superior OL, and most teams drafting high don’t have that or they wouldn’t be drafting high.Quote:
Sanlmar: I never pushed the button… kinda forgot about it and glad I did. Fraud team
The books have the futures exactly right imo, I watch a ton of CFB, and everyone is a fraud outside Georgia. Ohio State could lose to Georgia, LSU, and even an Arkansas type team on the wrong day. Michigan is most similar to LSU and Arkansas, so they could get Ohio State. I actually think LSU is probably better than Michigan atm. I hate the SEC, so it pains me to say it.
I actually think Georgia -165 is value. The biggest threat is like an LSU sneaking into the playoff and beating them. No one from any other conference can stay within 10. Ohio State is a fraud team, but they’d beat a USC or Clemson still because they’re closer to balanced than those teams. USC can score 50, but give up 47. Clemson offense is fake.
Just a bad year where there are a lot of frauds. If one of those SEC teams don’t sneak into the playoff in the 4 spot, I’d feel comfortable laying -165 on Georgia without an issue and will. They’ll make easy work of Ohio State, TCU, Michigan, and anyone else not in the SEC. I actually think they’ll lay 13.5 to anyone ranked in top 4 right now.
I told you wankers bills can’t be trusted, Regardless if they win or lose they are 10 point favorites fighting for their life just to win
Really thought this could be a bounceback game for them to get back on track. But they clearly are not right. After the safety I was like here we go....and shit. Just give me a TD or nothing here and I will be happy. They will cover with the TD and it helps my team bigly if they lose outright. I will defer to you on teaser picks just listen to me on the Ravens lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
This one is yet another example that playing a Thursday game as the road team is such a massive disadvantage. It is crazy the stats on it.