*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ok25

Morris got 10 with 3 left in 1Q

Locked up

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I went to this game. Morris kinda stopped shooting after the first quarter. Clippers play a real flat rotation. He obvious can possibly score 20 points with the right game script, but IMO even with Kawhi out he is always a big dog to score 20 points, as he is never playing more than 27-29 minutes. And guys like George, Jackson and Powell are going to take a lot of shots, regardless of who has the hot hand.

This was Zion's first game back. I was of course worried he wasn't going to play, which would have been a bummer. I dont know what a good strategy for containing him is, but the Clippers didn't have it. Maybe you have to aggressively blanket him when he doesn't have the ball to deny him the ball in the first place, and/or blitz him as soon as he gets the ball.

The Clippers strategy was to basically let him get the ball in the midrange and clog the lane and dare him to shoot wide open 10-15 jumpers. However, he never did. He always just dribbled into the paint and either created a high % shot for himself or passed it to someone on the perimeter for a wide open 3. Between his big body, quickness, and his long arms it is very easy for him to create angles for high % layups, at least against that defense.

Also, as is well known his second jump is so quick when he does miss layups, he is very good at getting the rebound and putting it back up before guys like Zubac can even react.

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There are guys who run through these scenarios all day long in preparation for hammering nba player props. If you can get to the right cause and effect if a star player is out it can be money in the bank.

Single @
-124
Open
Nov 1 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5134486
Moneyline: HOU Astros
HOU Astros @ PHI Phillies


Single @
+138
Open
Nov 1 • 2022
Ticket ID: 513447
Run Line: HOU Astros -1.5
HOU Astros @ PHI Phillies


Phillies bullpen has been pitching above expectation. Time for a correction. Hopefully tonight.

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

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Its a great time to be a punter. You just need to have your head about you and make sure you understand how it all works.

ND/Clemon line going from 4.5 to 3 pretty wild. Clemson -3 seems so good, it must be too good to be true. For all Clemson's offensive problems the last 1.5 years, it just seems the talent/speed gap should be too wide for ND to compete.

Also, I was listening to some podcast where a pro sports bettor said based on the numbers the O/U for Army/Air Force should be 48, and it is 40. That is a pretty big tax to be paying even for a strong trend (service academy games going under).

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

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What is the other game?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

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One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

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Ucla -10 -120

What is the other game?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

---

One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

---

One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

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I want to be clear - I meant betting on “pro sports” not that I’m some pro bettor, lol.

Druff is smoking it this year. He is the inverse me. I’ve never been more unable to handicap. I’m latching on to the narrative about the terrible state of quarterbacks in the NFL this year and using that as an excuse for the variance. I hear the Vegas (Circa) contests like “Last Man Standing” have experienced record mortality. Makes me feel good about my abstinence. Bottom line, I’m not adjusting like the pro gamblers (Druff).

NHL which I like as a fan is confusing, as well. NBA has been banned for years. I hate spread betting as a rule.

MLB Astros series at plus money has me spinning and scared when I shouldn’t be. I DO have a healthy respect for Phillies Dombroski - I have not pushed any buttons. I have no action on anything.

I admire the fact that I am not degen firing for kicks when I know I have no edge. I surprise myself. The void in my life can now be filled with drugs or painting in acrylics

Redundant posts from airport terminals. Sorry.

Flying is absolutely the lowest experience.

At least you're not flying with Air Canada ....then you wouldn't be flying your flight would be canceled.

Leafs -0.5 +100 first period.


and going under for MLB under 7.5

Last minute:

Washington vs Philadelphia - Under 217

starts in a few

Quote:

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Originally Posted by simpdog

At least you're not flying with Air Canada ....then you wouldn't be flying your flight would be canceled.

Leafs -0.5 +100 first period.


and going under for MLB under 7.5

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Confirmed. I thought I hated US airlines until I flew Air Canada. My latest Air Canada fail involved them bashing up my new luggage.

Old, fat and ugly. American Airlines is hiring stewardesses

Some more NBA. Note that when it comes to the NBA so far, I haven't been the same guy as I've been with NFL.

Dallas -6.5 vs Utah
Memphis at Portland - Over 226.5
Miami vs Sacramento - Under 220.5 (starting soon)

Leafs came out hot but couldn’t score.

Sigh.

Let’s go Buffalo

Edit: never a doubt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Last minute:

Washington vs Philadelphia - Under 217

starts in a few

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They put up 73 in the 3rd unreal

Over/unders hard in NBA

73 points in the 3rd for Wash/Philly.

:fail2


Edit: Also 65 by Miami/Sac. That ones's not dead, but not a good start.

Well a 39 point 2nd quarter in the Miami game was helpful. Back on pace to win.

Sac under looking great EXCEPT the OT possibility. 96-96 with 3 mins to go. I seem to be an OT magnet when I bet under.

Dallas looking shitty in the first half. Started off awful, came back to tie, down 3 after the half. Utah has been better than expected lately. Almost didn't fire Dallas here for that reason, especially giving up 6.5. 3rd quarter will be huge on this one.

Looks like another failday.

Dallas couldn't close out a big comeback and increasing lead, as they let Utah get close again, and it ended up 103-100 Mavericks.

Washington under lost earlier, and the Miami under barely won thanks to Tyler Herro breaking a 107-107 tie with 2.7s left.

Sac over going crappy. 69-62 with 16 minutes left to play. Ugh.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by simpdog

At least you're not flying with Air Canada ....then you wouldn't be flying your flight would be canceled.

Leafs -0.5 +100 first period.


and going under for MLB under 7.5

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Thanks Simpdog. My credit card company would like to know if you are going to be making picks more frequently.

Let us know when the next no hitter is scheduled

Australian NBL Perth Wildcats v Tasmania Jack Jumpers - 2 Hours away

Tasmania Jack Jumpers(+5.5)
ML +170
Over 165.5

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ok25

Australian NBL Perth Wildcats v Tasmania Jack Jumpers - 2 Hours away

Tasmania Jack Jumpers(+5.5)
ML +170
Over 165.5

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I will go with the ML +175 I found on one site. Not betting the over or the spread, which I see at best is +5 right now.

GL us

Well apparently people agree with you, ok25, because the line is moving.

I am finding myself very limited on the bets I can place here. I was limited to $100 on one site for +175. Then I was limited to $71 (lol) on another site for +171. Then I was about to place some more on BOL at +168. but that changed to +158 while I was placing it, so fuck that.

So I guess I will have to stick with my $171.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Well apparently people agree with you, ok25, because the line is moving.

I am finding myself very limited on the bets I can place here. I was limited to $100 on one site for +175. Then I was limited to $71 (lol) on another site for +171. Then I was about to place some more on BOL at +168. but that changed to +158 while I was placing it, so fuck that.

So I guess I will have to stick with my $171.

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:lol2

They know these games are a liability much more often than NBA/Euro's

Perth are garbage this year but apologies if I end up humbled

Shooting was abysmal first 15(35% Both Teams) to fuck the over hitting, glad you skipped that one

Perth #1 option got them ahead 29-20 Early 2ndQ getting to the line but the rest of the team are trash lately

Perth
77
19
19
20
19
Tasmania JackJumpers
85
16
20
24
25


Missed over by 4.

2/3

Weird line movements on Thursday night football, Seems they want us squares to unload on Philly, Line 14 now back to 13.5. Line has done this a few times

I'm actually on the phone regarding the last $100 I bet on that Tasmania game last night, which won (thanks again ok25).

It was deducted and listed as "Wager", but did not show up in my pending bets, and the description in my transaction page just showed "Wager $100" without specifying what it was.

I chatted with customer service, and they assured me it was just a system fail and that they'd resolve it at 8am EDT. Well, with the game starting at 6:30am EDT, no chance I was going to let them decide at 8am. So I told them I needed a commitment right then whether it was a bet or not. The chat CS rep told me it was indeed a bet.

I checked today, and I still have $100 listed as "pending" with no bets actually shown pending. Fail.

I'm on the phone right now, and they are looking into it. This is NOT Betonline, but another book I use, which has been reputable up until now. We shall see. I am not going to accept no for an answer, since I got their guarantee before the game that this $100 bet was real. Therefore, they owe me the $100 BACK plus the $171 I won from it. They paid out the first $171 I bet, so that's not an issue -- only the last $100 bet which is stuck somehow.

Wow, these assholes are refusing to pay it, and are calling it a cancelled bet.

I'm furiously arguing on the phone with them right now. It's Betanysports, in case you're wondering -- the former 5 Dimes.

Keep in mind that it's only a matter of $171, so it's a complete joke that they are fighting me on this.

Their claim is that the bet was disallowed by the third at the time I placed it, and therefore I should not get the $171 winnings, but just get the $100 back. They claim that the fact that I didn't see it as a "pending bet" is proof that it was cancelled, and I should have known this.

But that's bullshit. The bet actually has a ticket number, the $100 was deducted from my account, and it shows "Wager placed" on my transaction history. And beyond that, I got a customer service rep to confirm that $100 was a real bet, about 30 minutes before gametime.

They cannot give me a coherent reason why they aren't honoring it. I had to pull the PFA card out of my pocket, stating that I will publicize this and that it will "look terrible" if they don't pay it out.

Former owner Tony is turning over in his grave. Pretty sure he would've paid this, as his only real issue was people he felt were trying to roll him, but he tended to be fair in situations like these.

I redacted the full ticket number and my balance on the site, but everything else is shown as-is.

They're trying to say this isn't a bet. Get the fuck outta here.

You like anything Simpdog?

I did a RL Astros. None of these games are tight. It’s plus money.

Verlander is getting tagged with the Kershaw label. Oof. Thor is just a name from the past. This is the deciding game IMO.

I wish a grabbed that +130 Astros series before last game, of course. Low T.

Astros become a dynasty team perhaps.

Here was our chat at 2:31am-2:56am PDT. The game started at 3:30am PDT, so this chat ended 34 minutes before gametime, and I was guaranteed that the final $100 was a bet.

------------

Ian
Support Agent

Todd Witteles 02:31 AM
Hello. I have a missing $100. I tried to place 3 wagers on Premier Lines on Tasmania JackJumpers. One ($71) was accepted, one ($70) was not accepted and returned to my account. The third ($100) was not accepted but is missing from my account.
You will see I only have $171 listed in Pending Bets but I have $271 subtracted since I made these bets!

Ian 02:33 AM
Sure, one moment let me check.

Todd Witteles 02:33 AM
Look at Ticket 79442XXXX
That's the problem ticket

Ian 02:34 AM
Can you verify your account number and 4 digit pin?

Todd Witteles 02:35 AM
bXXXXX, pin XXXX

Ian 02:36 AM
Thank you, one moment.
So you are looking to cancel the one of the 3 of them?

Todd Witteles 02:39 AM
I don't want to cancel anything. But $100 is missing. It only shows two pending bets -- one on American lines ($100), and one on Premier lines ($100)
sorry the premier was $71, not $100
But only two bets
A third one, the ticket I gave you, just shows "Wager" for $100 but doesn't say waht it is, and it's not on my pending bets
If you can convert it into the same bet as the $71 (+171 Tasmania), then I will be happy to have that also

Ian 02:41 AM
As of now, I am seeing the 3 bets pending.
# Type Risk To Win Status Paid Description
1 X 100.00 171.00 Pending 2750XXX - Bet Type: Match Winner Match: NBL Blitz Pick: Tasmania Jackjumpers-Perth Wildcats - Tasmania Jackjumpers-2022-11-03T10:30:00

Todd Witteles 02:41 AM
Not showing on my end. Says I only have two, for a total of $171.73 to win $297.66

Ian 02:42 AM
That is the information of the ticket you send me.
Try to log out and log in back in your account and see if it changes.

Todd Witteles 02:43 AM
I tried already. It did not work
Look at this
<uploaded screen shot>
this was from a few seconds ago
Shows pending $271.73 but only $171.73 worth of bets

Ian 02:46 AM
One moment I am still checking.
Thanks for holding it looks like there is a problem with American lines, and unfortunately, we cannot fix it on our end, you will have to reach us back after 8 am ET.

Todd Witteles 02:51 AM
Well is this a bet or not?
The match goes off very shortly

Ian 02:51 AM
The good thing is that it shows on our end.

Todd Witteles 02:51 AM
So will I be guaranteed the $171 from the missing bet if it wins?
I need to know this before it goes, because otherwise I could be freerolled where they only call it a bet if it loses, and not a bet if it wins!

Ian 02:53 AM
Yes, because it shows on our end.
So it should be corrected once the american lines team review it.

Todd Witteles 02:55 AM
OK but there's no chance it will be cancelled in the morning, right? So I have $271 bet on this match total, correct?

Ian 02:55 AM
Correct!

Todd Witteles 02:56 AM
Thanks

Well the supervisor on duty told the CS rep to give me the message that they're not honoring it.

I said that I wanted to speak to him, and was told I'd be transferred, but that I had to wait. While I was waiting I asked if a manager (above a supervisor) was available, and they said he was out for the day, and I'd have to call back after 1pm EDT tomorrow.

I was pretty sure that today I wasn't going to get any resolution, but wanted to speak to this supervisor anyway. While on hold, I found that Betanysports is a member of OSGA, which is kind of an arbitration organization which the more reputable operations voluntarily join. OSGA has no real power, but in general sportsbooks tend to abide by their decisions if they're members. An OSGA rep once worked with PFA to resolve the dispute of badguy23 vs Bovada, where ultimately Bovada was ruled the ones in the right (and I actually agreed). OSGA initially refused to investigate due to google results showing badguy23 rolling Yebsite (lol), but I talked the (very reasonable) rep into reopening the case, and after further investigation, both he and I walked away convinced that badguy23 had attempted to roll them.

Anyway, I was going to first talk to the supervisor today, then talk to a manager tomorrow, and then go to OSGA if still unsatisfied.

Surprisingly, after a long hold time, the CS rep came back and told me that the supervisor changed his mind, and they decided to credit me the $171.

They still were not clear about what to do in the future if this happens. They told me to "contact support to verify if it's a bet" next time, but that's exactly what I did here! Next time this occurs, I'll call and ask for a supervisor, rather than use the chat system.

I liked Betanysports, so this disappointed me, but I'm glad to see that they ultimately did the right thing. Had they refused, I would have quit them.

2-0 Betting Philly this series, Verlander has looked just a shadow of his former self as of late. Verlander don’t bring his best stuff tonight and Philly wins. Philly +134

Denver at Oklahoma City - Under 228.5

NFL taking Houston +14. They're bad but 14 at home on a Thursday.

NHL
Hawks/LA over 6
Bos/NYR under 6 -125

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4BET

2-0 Betting Philly this series, Verlander has looked just a shadow of his former self as of late. Verlander don’t bring his best stuff tonight and Philly wins. Philly +134

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Late money pouring in on Houston. WS over if Philly don’t win tonight

Checked line it was -14.

Changed to -13.5

Tried to put bet in, no dice goes right back to 14 in 10 seconds.

So just took +600 Texans ML instead.