today's PRO-LINE. super square this week aside from NYG
CIN -6.5
DAL -6.5
GB -4.5
NYG PROLINE moneyline (they gotta win by 4)
pays 19.18x
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today's PRO-LINE. super square this week aside from NYG
CIN -6.5
DAL -6.5
GB -4.5
NYG PROLINE moneyline (they gotta win by 4)
pays 19.18x
I am in phone so doing my best to list okays from Memory. Might be off some.
Giants *3
Jets -1
Seahawks +6.5
Colts +3
Lions +7
Ravens/bengals tease
Patriots/raiders tease
Saints/dolphins tease (yes saints did miraculously cover the teaser line with that end of game FG)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The 2 most lopsided money games today are Bucs and Seahawks. So based on recent trends Panthers and Chargers are very +EV. Go for it Druff. Personally, I just cant pull the trigger.
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
I was listening to a podcast where a bet mgm employee was promoting their product, and they said these were 2 of the most lopsided positions they had. And he said that reflects the industry. They could be lying I guess. They are obviously selling a product, not trying to give bettors +EV bets against them.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
Do you think sharps are buying back Carolina +13?
My understanding is unders have hit at something like 59% so far, and these things always correct over a season. So theoretically it should be +EV to just bet overs until it corrects back to around 50%, especially if you have -105 lines.
Betting on the Jags feels like a trap rn. Wth with the 5-1 team getting points?
Tom Brady is or is not going to retire mid-season?
They are still technically "winning" the division. It would be one thing if someone else was running away with the division, but they are still probably small favorites to be hosting a first round playoff games, so that might affect things.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978
country978 you were right. It did feel weird betting against the Giants, who have been underrated for the most part this year. I thought it was going to barely work out until near the end of the game, and indeed that trap line failed to trap the ploppies, who walked away feeling brilliant.
Now if you want to talk about an overrated team, it's the Chargers, whose 4-2 record is the product of playing lolbad teams thus far. They looked so bad against the terrible Broncos last week, and only won in OT thanks to a careless mistake during a punt return.
So the +195 on an upstart Seahawks team was pretty obvious this week, and it broke out to a 17-0 lead, and I felt like a genius. Unfortunately, Metcalf got hurt in the late 1st and it was all downhill, so now that Chargers are back in it, 17-14. They still are overrated, though, and I will probably keep fading them. But not next week because they have a bye.
It bears repeating, Betting nfl is tough
Brady has this fantasy of playing until 50. That fantasy probably ruined his marriage. I'm sure now he's realizing that Father Time is finally catching up with him. I doubt he retires midseason, but I highly doubt we will see him playing again next year. The impending divorce might be affecting his play, as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamThey are still technically "winning" the division. It would be one thing if someone else was running away with the division, but they are still probably small favorites to be hosting a first round playoff games, so that might affect things.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978
Basically my thinking on this one. Giants are just too good this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Negative - Vegas moved the line significantly on both. Tells me they don’t want to take a position.
They have left the Jags/Giants number at 3 all week. That tells me they want to have a position on the Jags. I want my $$ to be with the boys who AC the desert.
Atlanta is another one. They have left that number at 6.5 all week, although i think they know if they move to 7 they will get all sorts of buyers.
Not calling lock but smart $$ on Jags.
Geez... a safety. How embarrassing. I hope this doesn't allow the Chargers get back into it and win. Still an 11-point lead, but you can't let shit like this happen when you're the visiting team and trying to hold a lead in the 4th quarter.
Denver under came in. This team has such a shit offense.
Seattle/LA game is over. Nice one. I was one of 2 or 3 people in my pool of 40 to be on the hawks. Thanks Druff!! Of course I also had the Jags so the week is out
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
PACKERS EAT SHIT
Another nice NFL Sunday for me. Makes up some for the bad start in the NBA I've had, and the inconsistent NCAAF results.
3-1, up 2.77 units today, thanks to the +195 Seahawks bet. Would've been a perfect 4-0 if Jax hadn't shit the bed in the 4th. None of my 3 wins were close.
Need Dolphins -1 as part of a teaser. Currently up 16-10 halfway through 3rd.
They have been in the red zone 5 times and only have 16 points to show for it, including the last trip where they ran on 3rd and 3 and 4th and 3 and got stuffed both times.
Getting a real bad feeling about this one. Dolphins could easily have 31 here and game over, but leaving the Steelers in it like they have, I am starting to smell an upset brewing.
I am having a great weekend (for me). Counting a couple NBA bets my record this weekend is 29-12 so far, sweating Dolphins to win by 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Surprised both of us are having a good day at the same time, as we are so often on the opposite side. For example, I had the Giants.
I imagine the books got beat up this weekend. Pending outcome of Miami and New England games most (all?) of the potential teaser bets have covered (including potential non Wongs like Bengals and Ravens) and a lot of public dogs covered (Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Commanders?).
McDanlels is not coaching a good game IMO.
For example, when up 16-10 it is 3rd and 3 from like the 15 yard line and he calls a run play that gets stuffed. Either kick the FG to go up 2 scores or throw a short pass. What are the odds of converting 4th and 3 and running. Has to be like 20%.
Then halfway through the 4th around the 50 yard line and same score it is 3rd and 3 and they throw a 40 yard bomb that falls incomplete and then punts. Again, throw a short pass, get the first down. This play calling really sucks. They just refuse to go up more than 6 points. They are just begging for Pittsburgh to steal this game.
Edit: Yep, Steelers get ball halfway through 4th and turn the switch and just slicing through the Dolphins D like butter, after doing nothing the whole game. But the Dolphins refused to put the game away, so now Pitt will take it.
Wow, Dolphins go straight into turtle mode on offense (I am not sure they got a single 1st down in the whole 4th Q) and beg Pittsburgh to take it, but Pickett throws two 4th Q interceptions to seal the Dolphins win.
I really think the Patriots are going to lay one on Bears. Like 37-3. Bears defense might hold up for a minute, but it’s going to get ugly. I’m just trying to decide smartest way to bet it.
The Bears look like the worst team in the NFL. They're going to have a game or two where they get clobbered. This seems probable tonight. Mac Jones better not fuck it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Quote:
Originally Posted by country978The Bears look like the worst team in the NFL. They're going to have a game or two where they get clobbered. This seems probable tonight. Mac Jones better not fuck it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
So im not going to disagree with any of that.
That said you cant look at the 85% of the handle on NE and say “I want to bet the patriots” tonight
I hate that he’s coming back, but I don’t see how the Bears score more than 10 tops. This was my favorite game all week as the Bears offense is abysmal and the Patriots defense is playing very well atm. I’ve been badly wrong before, so we’ll see. I think it may be close for awhile and then it breaks open. The -13.5 is a smaller wager than the other 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978The Bears look like the worst team in the NFL. They're going to have a game or two where they get clobbered. This seems probable tonight. Mac Jones better not fuck it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Single @
+160
Open
Oct 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 510471
Point Spread: NE Patriots -13.5
CHI Bears @ NE Patriots
Single @
-122
Open
Oct 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5104711
Total Points by CHI Bears: Under 15.5
CHI Bears @ NE Patriots
Single @
-110
Open
Oct 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5104720
Point Spread: NE Patriots -8
If both teams show up as expected this should be a laugher. The Bears recently looked pathetic and the Pats have been getting better especially on the O line. The back up running back would be starting on a lot of teams. Pats should easily cover.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
So im not going to disagree with any of that.
That said you cant look at the 85% of the handle on NE and say “I want to bet the patriots” tonight
Last minute:
New York at Orlando - Over 223
Another last minute:
Toronto at Miami - Under 214
The unspoken code regarding losing your spot due to injury. Of course, we hate limp arm Mac Jones vs gun slinger Zappe.
We hate Matt Patricia - Pats offensive coordinator most of all (and so does Mac Jones… young Zappe doesn’t know any better yet)
Nevertheless fade the sharps trying to win back their Jags money
Teaser for the grinders out there
New England Patriots -2˝ for Game
Chicago Bears/New England Patriots under 46˝ for Game
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Probably a horrible idea but i blanket bet all the jones unders, bears +9 & took feilds first TD
Then again i also was on the jags so what do i know.
That Jones fade is inspired and I’m gonna work that too.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Probably a horrible idea but i blanket bet all the jones unders, bears +9 & took feilds first TD
Druff betting NBA makes my a little ill but his process is top notch in all sports so I need to slug some Pepto
You guys had some fun this weekend I see. Mental fortitude fr
Memphis struggling despite being 2-1. They got shellacked by Dallas, struggled with the Knicks before beating them in OT, and needed a comeback in the 4th to beat the LOL Rockets.
I hate backing the overrated Nets (a team almost as dysfunctional as the Lakers), but I think they win today.
Brooklyn +1 -105 at Memphis
GL to everyone with their NFL bets tonight. I do not have enough of a feeling about either the side or total here, so I'm sitting tonight out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Why why why did I bet on the Nets, after telling myself that I will not back the dysfunctional Nets or Lakers this year?
Honestly I think an auto-fade on both teams until further notice is going to be profitable.
Still early but I already regret what I did.
The Patriots have a qb controversy. Jones has come in and made a mess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Praise be Mr Belichick. Happy for Zappe
Righting wrongs
No controversyQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
I feel like I did something immoral tailing your Mac Jones fade.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNo controversyQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
Mother bleepin genius
The guilt will pass
Brooklyn must have heard my complaining, and decided to have a comeback in the later 2nd quarter, going into the half up 5.
Both totals picks on pace to win right now. Could go 3-0 if it all holds, which I need in the NBA where I'm currently 4-8-1.
Apparently not. Let the rout begin.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNo controversyQuote:
Originally Posted by country978