*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Just took the worst NBA beat. So sickening.

I had O226 in the Denver game, and the game was cruising along nicely. Utah was winning the whole way, but game was competitive. Game was going over the whole way. Then Denver went the last 4 minutes of the game and didn't score a single point, got blown out and the over missed by 1 point. So fucking brutal. How does an NBA team not score 1 point in 4 minutes? It is insane. So so brutal. I feel sick. Here is their possessions in the last 4 minutes:

Out of bounds turnover
Missed 26 foot 3 pointer
Missed layup
Missed 25 foot 3 pointer
Offensive foul turnover
Missed 15 foot jumper
Out of bounds turnover
Missed layup
Missed 7 foot jumper

--The end. I lose again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Just took the worst NBA beat. So sickening.

I had O226 in the Denver game, and the game was cruising along nicely. Utah was winning the whole way, but game was competitive. Game was going over the whole way. Then Denver went the last 4 minutes of the game and didn't score a single point, got blown out and the over missed by 1 point. So fucking brutal. How does an NBA team not score 1 point in 4 minutes? It is insane. So so brutal. I feel sick. Here is their possessions in the last 4 minutes:

Out of bounds turnover
Missed 26 foot 3 pointer
Missed layup
Missed 25 foot 3 pointer
Offensive foul turnover
Missed 15 foot jumper
Out of bounds turnover
Missed layup
Missed 7 foot jumper

--The end. I lose again.

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I've had ones like that. I've also had the under which is covering by 20 with one minute left, and then all the fouling bullshit makes me lose. That's arguably even more painful, because you watch it happening in slow motion.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

TNT NCAA - ODDS TO WIN THE HEISMAN TROPHY
[125331] CADE KLUBNIK +7000 25.00 USD / 1750.00 USD

Obviously Will Anderson is by main pick - put out there at 40-1 and he’s fourth fav at 10-1

Like J Gibbs. Put that out at 35-1 and he’s also at 10-1

The one I realistically like is J-S-N at 35-1 currently.

But if we looking for long shots we are one press release away from Cade, the #1 HS QB btw, taking the job away from DJU and leading clemson to the playoffs….. this is a fairly realistic line and this can be found at 100-1

Another longshot is M Cunningham. He’s the same type of QB as L Jackason was and this team could surprise this year. 75-1 is worth a stab.

I’m not as high on Tennessee as some others but hooker may put up gigantic numbers - enough to justify 50-1 at the current offer

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Well I said what i said.

That said im a broken leg away from having the front runner at 50-1. Hooker has looked great and thebwin vs Bama helped.

Today has a few NCAAF games. I have one pick:

UAB +103 at Western Kentucky (+1.5 -110 ok)

And here's some Saturday NCAAF picks for you:

Kansas State +145 at TCU (+3.5 ok)
Louisville -2.5 vs Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt +14 -105 at Missouri
LSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss
Bowling Green +205 at Central Michigan (+6.5 ok)
UL Monroe +210 at Army (+6.5 ok)
Baylor -10 vs Kansas

Totals for Friday:

UAB at Western Kentucky - Over 58.5


And some totals for Saturday:

North Texas at UTSA - Over 72.5
Toledo at Buffalo - Under 57
Boston College at Wake Forest - Under 60.5

Here's some NBA for the early games. Might have more in a bit.

New Orleans at Charlotte - Under 226.5
San Antonio +2 vs Indiana

Picks for the 4:35pm PT games and later:

Boston at Miami - Over 221
Phoenix at Portland - Under 224

Not going all that hot toady.

UAB is crapping the bed, and hasn't scored since the early 2nd. Now we're in the final 5 minutes, and they trail by 3. Over is already fucked, and I will get a double loss unless they come back.

New Orleans / Charlotte under bet went way over, after a lot of scoring in the second half.

Boston/Miami just needed 56 to cover the over 221 in the 4th, but they fell 6 points short.

San Antonio almost blew a late 21 point lead (!!), and needed to fade a last-second three pointer in order to win. But they did pull it out.

Phoenix/Portland is fairly low scoring so far (88 after 23 minutes of play), so that one is in good shape.


Looking like 2-2 in the NBA and 0-2 in NCAAF.

Took 3 betting days to fuck a great under with OT

:gay

Ended up 1-2-1 in NBA, in what should have been 2-2, but I actually almost went 1-3, but Phoenix's attempt to make 2 free throws (down 2) with 1 second left, was met with a missed first one, meaning they had to intentionally miss the second in order to have a shot at a rebound and putback. When that failed, it ended up 224 points exactly. But this was in OT, meaning it was a good under pick which got fucked over.

The other 3 games I already described above.

Both UAB related picks lost. Boy that team was shit after the early 2nd.

:gay2

Regarding my remaining NCAAF bets, I haven't actually fired LSU yet. I made it as a pick, and it will stand either way regarding my record, but I am not personally betting it now. I've changed my mind. So if you haven't bet it yet, I no longer recommend it.

Add this total pick to today, as well:

Texas at Oklahoma State - Under 60

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Totals for Friday:

UAB at Western Kentucky - Over 58.5


And some totals for Saturday:

North Texas at UTSA - Over 72.5
Toledo at Buffalo - Under 57
Boston College at Wake Forest - Under 60.5

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“The fellas” were all over the under in the UAB game. They bet it early in the week at 58. They rebet it yesterday at 60.

Then for the first time in forever WKU comes out and runs the ball 66% of the time.

The fellas don't always win, but they always have a angle.

Daly, kurt is even money vs cam davis.. Hes been gold last 2 days, we gotta keep going right?

Games with Important numbers

K State +4
Cinci -3
Toledo -7
Toledo U58
Rutgers -3
Wyoming -3.5

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Michael Jackson

Daly, kurt is even money vs cam davis.. Hes been gold last 2 days, we gotta keep going right?

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Needless to say I'm pulling for him. Dont think its a “free money” situation.

Don’t love any of these early games. Only one bet, and it’s one of my goofy parlays where I game the spreads. Druff is the other way on Baylor, hopefully it falls 14 and we both scoop.


Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Oct 22 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5094683
Point Spread: Kent State -13.0 @ -143
Akron @ Kent State
Point Spread: Kansas +16.0 @ -190
Kansas @ Baylor
Odds:
+160

I see Daly & I both have K State and the Toledo under.

Good company.

Baylor about to cover in my ploppy -10 play. LA Monroe about to lose against Army. Bowling Green was up 17-3 at the half, but now it's 17-10 and they're not playing well. I really want this one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I see Daly & I both have K State and the Toledo under.

Good company.

Baylor about to cover in my ploppy -10 play. LA Monroe about to lose against Army. Bowling Green was up 17-3 at the half, but now it's 17-10 and they're not playing well. I really want this one.

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That game fell perfectly for both our bets and I’m still going to lose because Kent State’s qb warmed up and decided not to play and I got a backup with 3 pass attempts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I see Daly & I both have K State and the Toledo under.

Good company.

Baylor about to cover in my ploppy -10 play. LA Monroe about to lose against Army. Bowling Green was up 17-3 at the half, but now it's 17-10 and they're not playing well. I really want this one.

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That game fell perfectly for both our bets and I’m still going to lose because Kent State’s qb warmed up and decided not to play and I got a backup with 3 pass attempts.

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Wow I just noticed. Not easy to get the PFA middle between 11-15 but we did it with Baylor.

Someone told me line shopping matters in college football. Got u57 on Toledo, Daly got 58. Total sits at 58 with 3:35 left. Ouch. GL with the tie Daly.

At least my BGSU +205 came in.

My totals this weekend in NCAAB are just brutal. Might end up 0-5 on those. Ugly.

Most lop sided play of the day is Ole Miss.

They were up 17-3 and LSU fought back to tie before going into half down 17-14

Vegas really really needs LSU…..id never tell anyone to bet money they dont have but if you betting games this afternoon id find a few bucks for a 2h bet.

Vanderbilt is awful.

Makes me ashamed I was accepted to the school (I didn't go there).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Vanderbilt is awful.

Makes me ashamed I was accepted to the school (I didn't go there).

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Vanderbilt can't be awful

Vanderbilt super hard to get in and graduate from

It's Vanderbilt

Last minute NBA

Boston at Orlando - Under 215.5

Here's one more NBA where you have a bit more time:

Milwaukee vs Houston - Under 227.5 -107

Results so far for this weekend's NCAAF:

Friday
UAB +103 at Western Kentucky - LOSS
UAB at Western Kentucky - Over 58.5 - LOSS


Saturday
North Texas at UTSA - Over 72.5 - LOSS
Toledo at Buffalo - Under 57 - LOSS
Boston College at Wake Forest - Under 60.5 - WIN
Bowling Green +205 at Central Michigan - WIN
UL Monroe +210 at Army - LOSS
Baylor -10 vs Kansas - WIN
LSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss - WIN
Texas at Oklahoma State - Under 60 - LOSS

Going:
Vanderbilt +14 -105 at Missouri - LIKELY WIN

Remaining:
Kansas State +145 at TCU
Louisville -2.5 vs Pittsburgh

Sadly I didn't bet LSU, and of course they blew out the 2nd half like Daly predicted.

Vanderbilt redeemed themselves. They could even win OUTRIGHT. Bowling Green was like a double win because it was +205.

Vandy is pretty much a lock now for +14, so I'll count it. That leaves me at 5-6 today, but about even because of the +205. However, I didn't bet LSU, so moneywise that leaves me a unit down, plus the two I lost yesterday.

Suffice to say that I want to see Louisville and K State hit for me.

Geez my NBA under on Boston is doing horribly. 79 points in 14 minutes. I hate when an under is pretty much a lock to lose in the early second period.

As much as I despise the Cheatstros anybody know if theres a prop out there for them to run the playoffs undefeated at this point??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Here's one more NBA where you have a bit more time:

Milwaukee vs Houston - Under 227.5 -107

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I bet the over in this. Looked like it wasn't going to hit, but 9 points in the last 2 minutes of garbage time (where often there is 0 points scored) squeaked it through.

Knock on wood, NBA going good this year. 3-0 in props (including Donovan Mitchell O6.5 assists today that hit in the 2nd Q) and up small in totals/sides too.

WTF.

I have Washington money line. They are up 28-21 with 2:00 minutes left on 3rd down and they complete a first down to ice the game. However, the refs call a phantom holding call. The announcers review the play and there is nothing that even looks close to holding. The refs completely just made it up to keep the game going. Super shady. Of course it is 11 PM PST with 2 garbage teams where no-one who isn't betting the game is even watching it, which is exactly when you could probably as a referee get away with some corrupt shit.

LOL. LOL. LOL.

Cal gets the ball back after the fake holding call on Washington and then on 1st down they throw an interception, but the refs call a phantom defensive holding. This is just complete rig gage. Refs aren't even pretending anymore.

Edit: Cal offense sucks and they cant score anyways, but man that was way more stressful than it should have been.

Lousy weekend so far

:gay

shitting up this forum but idc because been here since 06 and i am allowed to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DEfl394YOE

Here's my NFL wagers for this lovely Sunday.

Seattle +195 at Chargers
Jacksonville -3 -120 vs Giants
Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Under 39
Denver vs Jets - Under 37

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Most lop sided play of the day is Ole Miss.

They were up 17-3 and LSU fought back to tie before going into half down 17-14

Vegas really really needs LSU…..id never tell anyone to bet money they dont have but if you betting games this afternoon id find a few bucks for a 2h bet.

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There has quite literally been no better indicator than this.

Ucla over Utah made no sense and was 90% money
Lsu over Ole Miss made no sense and wss 90% money
Tenn +7 over Bama made no sense and was 85% money

Its like one high profile game a week the boys behind the counter say “we going to fuck the public hard on this one game for starters” and its Semi obvious if you stop to look at it

Some sharp friends were on over 41.5 colts and over 44.5 fins

Oddly enough no line move on either

Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Oct 23 • 2022
Ticket ID: 50998
Point Spread: CIN Bengals -1.0 @ -295
ATL Falcons @ CIN Bengals
Point Spread: DAL Cowboys -2.0 @ -275
DET Lions @ DAL Cowboys
Odds:
-121


Single @
-108
Open
Oct 23 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5099826
Point Spread: CLE Cavaliers -3.5
WAS Wizards @ CLE Cavaliers

For guys who like props. Keep an eye on Kuzma. I’ve been looking at more props lately, but my book has a tendency to put them up late so I don’t have time to post them.

My book doesn’t have player props for this game up yet, but for whatever reason, Kuzma had 3 big games against the Cavs out of 4 meetings last year. I recall him being a pain in the ass. Cavs have a tendency to clog up the middle and Kyle floats on the perimeter on offense. Plays more like a SF on offense than typical PF. Cavs have great big men and smaller perimeter defenders and he often ends up with someone guarding him giving up 4 inches if the Cavs only have one big on the floor

His 3 big games were 22 points -6/9 from 3 and 5 rebounds
27 points+rebounds

25 points and 10 rebounds


34 points/13 rebounds 8/11 from 3

The fourth meeting the Cavs kind of blew them out early and their starters only played like 20 minutes each.

I might hedge a little on him as he’s the guy most likely on the wiz to go off as there won’t be much at the rim and they generally defend Beal well. Small sample, but in his two games this year since adding Porzingis, he’s averaging more points and shots. He’s 24/9.5 rebounds and has attempted 8 and 10 3s in first two games. I caught a points/rebounds prop on him that second night against the Bulls at 24 and he easily covered it with 32 total.

He’s going to get a lot of open looks with teams focusing on Beal and Porzingas. There might be some continued value there until books adjust.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Most lop sided play of the day is Ole Miss.

They were up 17-3 and LSU fought back to tie before going into half down 17-14

Vegas really really needs LSU…..id never tell anyone to bet money they dont have but if you betting games this afternoon id find a few bucks for a 2h bet.

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There has quite literally been no better indicator than this.

Ucla over Utah made no sense and was 90% money
Lsu over Ole Miss made no sense and wss 90% money
Tenn +7 over Bama made no sense and was 85% money

Its like one high profile game a week the boys behind the counter say “we going to fuck the public hard on this one game for starters” and its Semi obvious if you stop to look at it

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The 2 most lopsided money games today are Bucs and Seahawks. So based on recent trends Panthers and Chargers are very +EV. Go for it Druff. Personally, I just cant pull the trigger.