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Not loving this Eagles under, which going in was the only marginal one, and I landed on the side of making it.
20-3 after 1H. Funny enough I almost replaced it with Eagles -6 or whatever it was. Pretty clear they want to make a statement against Dallas. That NFC East sitting there with 3 teams exceeding expectations.
If I win this one, it will be all luck.
It steamed all the way up to 7 in my book. I took Cowboys +7. I also took Cowboys +3 2nd half. The second half bet is looking very good, and even decent chance Cowboys make this a game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
59 yard FG attempt for the backdoor cover misses. Sigh.
Just not my year.
3-1 day, up 3 units. Lost this Eagles under by 1.
I've won 22 games (including some dogs), lost 5, and tied 1.
Of those 5 losses, one was a clear loss (though there was an unexpected injury after I bet it), two were sides which had a 50%+ chance to win at some point in the 4th, and two were unders which lost by 0.5-1 points.
None of today's wins were close. Anyway, can't complain about a +3 unit day.
Denver +185 at Chargers (+4 ok)
I wonder if Druff thrives when the sport is kinda crummy. He killed it in the waning weeks of inconsequential baseball too. TNF, SNF and now this fine MNF contest is right in his wheelhouse. Then again, Druff wins at all NFL so maybe I’m wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou aren’t a huge NFL fan, are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When I first got into the premier league like a decade ago, I had a year where I feel like I hit 85%. I didn’t have any pre-conceived notions or bias. I was just betting on the number and what I saw. It’s really hard to separate opinions on the past when you’re an avid viewer. Like I would have bet the Packers today because the Packers always win that game and the Jets are the Jets. That ignores I just saw the Giants smoke them last week.
I would have chalked it up to jet lag or whatever. Right now you’re just seeing value while I’m thinking Marcus Mariota against SF defense with no points? Fuck no. Because I’ve been following him since he was 19 years old and have always had a negative opinion of his game. The other two this afternoon were just good bets. Hope your late one hits. You’re killing it.
I'm not a huge NFL fan but I decided to get into it more this year, mainly because I was interested in trying my hand at betting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI wonder if Druff thrives when the sport is kinda crummy. He killed it in the waning weeks of inconsequential baseball too. TNF, SNF and now this fine MNF contest is right in his wheelhouse. Then again, Druff wins at all NFL so maybe I’m wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
But you are correct that I analyze these games from a pure bettor's standpoint rather than an NFL fan's standpoint, which is different than how I approach MLB and NBA, also being longtime fans of those sports.
There are a few factors also working in my favor so far:
- There have been some clear underrated teams thus far, and clear overrated teams, and for whatever reason, the lines haven't adjusted much
- A lot of games expected by sharps to go under have gone under, and if they haven't, they've been close
- In general, the results have favored the positions taken by sharp and semi-sharp NFL bettors. I have seen other poker players bragging on social media that they've gotten off to a great start this year.
Nice pick!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Chargers break out to a quick 10-0 start and offense has just been absolute shit since the mid-1st. They got a nice interception at the 17 and still couldn't get any more than a FG, and even that was close. Just watching bad play after bad play. These final 8.5 minutes can't end fast enough.
Todd - well done with the start to the nfl
Season.
Check your text. I have a idea/proposal for the freeroll $$.
Boy that was a horrendous possession. Back to Chargers ball with 2 mins left. I don't have a good feeling about this game. Broncos have no offense today. If not for that interception, they'd have 3 points since the mid-1st.
Wish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
nice to have a 2nd screen going with the computer. If you don't have money on the game or aren't rooting for Druff's amazing run to continue its not watchable.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Wish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
Oh apparently not. They're gonna run the clock down and take a Hail Mary shot.
I'd say more likely to end in tie. Both these teams stink.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
I heard the announcer say, “launch it downfield and see if he can get a PI”
Dreadful league. Random
Gimpy kickerQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
I skipped the points.
I wrote this before they failed to get that 1 yard with the 3rd down. But yeah a tie is very possible now.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978I'd say more likely to end in tie. Both these teams stink.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This Denver offense is horrendous. The fact that they're even in OT is a miracle.
This is part of what makes you great … no one who LIKES football would get behind that offense. I can’t believe that’s Russel Wilson. What happened to him?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LFG Broncos
Great defense by Broncos here. Got lucky on that out-of-bounds catch though.
Just need a damn FG here to win. gogogo
If Cleveland Guardians were playing I never would have put myself thru this ordeal
INT plz
What a horrendous mistake on that punt catch. Disasterous way to lose if that's what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
:noQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
I would say this was a bad beat, but it's really not. Can't win if you can't score for 3.5 quarters.
I wanted to go to be an hour ago but couldn't believe you took Denver and then they kept it so close the whole way. Shitty game.
Some kind of crazy NFL total unders record so far I would imagine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff:noQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
I would say this was a bad beat, but it's really not. Can't win if you can't score for 3.5 quarters.
Chargers usually find a way to lose that type of game. Russ last two 2nd halfs have been some of the worst QB play since Ryan Leaf.
Tough beat Druff
Druff, great start to the season. Hats off. However, I wouldn't get too far over your skis. From your NBA and MLB I can tell you are generally a contrarian and under bettor. You figure out the bet no recreational better would ever dream taking and then take it. Which is a fine strategy. Possibly even a long term winning one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'm not a huge NFL fan but I decided to get into it more this year, mainly because I was interested in trying my hand at betting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
But you are correct that I analyze these games from a pure bettor's standpoint rather than an NFL fan's standpoint, which is different than how I approach MLB and NBA, also being longtime fans of those sports.
There are a few factors also working in my favor so far:
- There have been some clear underrated teams thus far, and clear overrated teams, and for whatever reason, the lines haven't adjusted much
- A lot of games expected by sharps to go under have gone under, and if they haven't, they've been close
- In general, the results have favored the positions taken by sharp and semi-sharp NFL bettors. I have seen other poker players bragging on social media that they've gotten off to a great start this year.
But as a lifelong NFL bettor I can let you know this year is an anomaly so far with all the dogs and unders winning at the clip they have. Some years teasers didn't lose. You could blindly stack -7.5 favorites teased to 1.5 and it was printing money. Most books actually adjusted teaser odds from -110 to -120 because they were getting crushed so bad. This year I am not sure I have won a single NFL Wong teaser involving a favorite. It really is crazy.
His Y/A was 6.7. Herberts was 4. Both QBs were under a lot of pressure 2nd half and didn't seem to handle it well. But it didn't look like any of the receivers were getting open either. Just bad offense all around. But no reason to single out Russ, especially as he was arguably the more effective QB in this game.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Can I hear an amen?Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamDruff, great start to the season. Hats off. However, I wouldn't get too far over your skis. From your NBA and MLB I can tell you are generally a contrarian and under bettor. You figure out the bet no recreational better would ever dream taking and then take it. Which is a fine strategy. Possibly even a long term winning one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
But as a lifelong NFL bettor I can let you know this year is an anomaly so far with all the dogs and unders winning at the clip they have. Some years teasers didn't lose. You could blindly stack -7.5 favorites teased to 1.5 and it was printing money. Most books actually adjusted teaser odds from -110 to -120 because they were getting crushed so bad. This year I am not sure I have won a single NFL Wong teaser involving a favorite. It really is crazy.
Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
For everything there is a season …
Druff knows the game is always changing. The very reason I can’t watch the NFL anymore is prolly the very same reason he’s winning.
I do not want Druff to get all introspective though. Successful gamblers generally lead unexamined lives. This isn’t Yoga.
its probably short term bias from last weeks Thursday night game. I had a large wager on Denver and the interception at the end of regulation was terrible. Tonight they were equally bad, I feel Herbert should have more freedom at the line of scrimmage to get into something he likes. Play calling was conservative tonight and Mike Williams should have more 1on 1 opportunites against another really good Pat SurtainQuote:
Originally Posted by KalamHis Y/A was 6.7. Herberts was 4. Both QBs were under a lot of pressure 2nd half and didn't seem to handle it well. But it didn't look like any of the receivers were getting open either. Just bad offense all around. But no reason to single out Russ, especially as he was arguably the more effective QB in this game.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
If you love pain you’re gonna love the chargers vs seahawks. Seahawks +7 seems obv but I defer to Druff.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33its probably short term bias from last weeks Thursday night game. I had a large wager on Denver and the interception at the end of regulation was terrible. Tonight they were equally bad, I feel Herbert should have more freedom at the line of scrimmage to get into something he likes. Play calling was conservative tonight and Mike Williams should have more 1on 1 opportunites against another really good Pat SurtainQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
If you going to jump on this you will need to press play today.
The CJ is played at one of the longest courses on the PGA tour. “Gun to head” this makes Rham, Fitz and Cam Young my personal top picks for this weekend.
The other top 10 driving length and “tee to green” player in the field is sitting there at 125-1 at some locals. Bookmaker hung him at 100-1 and he was instantly hammered down to 60-1.
Kurt Kitayama
A steal at 100-1 or better
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Ill make a separate thread for this. Todd was good enough to take $100 of my escrow with PFA and out it on Kurt (at 90-1). If Kurt goes on to win we are going to do something fun with the proceeds.
Sat out the 2-game opening NBA day.
Now time to get going with the NBA season with a large slate of picks.
Indiana -102 vs Washington (+1 ok)
Orlando +130 at Detroit (+3 ok)
New York +155 at Memphis (+4 ok)
Oklahoma City +10.5 at Minnesota
Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Under 225.5 -110 (225 ok)
New Orleans +130 at Brooklyn (+3 ok)
San Antonio -110 vs Chicago
Well, this isn't going how I hoped.
Of the bets I made:
Orlando down by 8 in late 3rd, after good start.
Indiana down by 10 in the late 3rd, behind whole way.
New Orleans up by 8 at the half (finally a good one).
New York down by 15 at the half, down the whole way.
OKC, which needs to lose by 10 or fewer, down by 15 in mid-2nd.
OKC under is on pace to win at the moment, but scoring has picked up.
San Antonio is getting clobbered by 17 in mid-2nd.
At the moment, even if the two good ones hold up (which is by now means a lock), I'll go 2-5, and lose 2.71 units.
Noble comeback attempt by Orlando, who tied it at 99 and had all the momentum, but they shit the bed and are about to lose.
NY now doing a similar comeback run. Hopefully I hit that. Then the day can't be terrible.
NY had a late comeback & lost in OT.
Orlando had a late comeback and tied it, but lost.
Indiana had a late comeback but ran out of time.
Shitty.
But I did hit NO +130 and both OKC picks (though under almost got fucked by fouling), so I ended up 3-4, down 0.88 units. Glad I could count on the Nets to be terrible.
Not good, but not devastating.