Type: Future/Prop
Product:
Sportsbook
Amount:
$xxxx
To win:
$xxxxxxx
Status:
Pending
Description:
Entertainment - Specials - Gisele Bundchen Next Boyfriend - Donald Trump Sr +100000
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Type: Future/Prop
Product:
Sportsbook
Amount:
$xxxx
To win:
$xxxxxxx
Status:
Pending
Description:
Entertainment - Specials - Gisele Bundchen Next Boyfriend - Donald Trump Sr +100000
Why bet a +2.5 40 hours before kickoff? Why not wait and see where it goes? If it goes to +3 it is a big deal, if it goes to +2 or +1.5 not a big deal at all. Asymetric risk. I kind of like Browns agains this super injured Chargers team, but definitely waiting to see what happens with the line.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Because I'm betting moneyline, not spread. And it keeps going down.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamWhy bet a +2.5 40 hours before kickoff? Why not wait and see where it goes? If it goes to +3 it is a big deal, if it goes to +2 or +1.5 not a big deal at all. Asymetric risk. I kind of like Browns agains this super injured Chargers team, but definitely waiting to see what happens with the line.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Think I just heard that the line has not mattered 51-11Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I love utah today. You love utah today. Everyone loves utah today.
1/ Per @TS_Sportsbook's @ZachALucas on UTAH-UCLA: Utes from -3 to -3.5, then on to -4, back to -3.5. Ticket count 2/1 and money 4/1 Utah.
"Sharps and public siding with Utah. Utah is our biggest liability of the day."
I legit love utah - had this circled when it was -4 let alone -3.
Im passing but the “sharp” play here is UCLA
Since I'm batting .900 (!!) in my first 21 NFL picks, time to take a shot with NCAAF.
First pick below. More coming soon.
I'll start with some chalk.
Florida -10.5 vs Missouri
I know, complex stuff. The home -10.5 favorite. Starting in 20 min.
Here's a few more:
Navy +5.5 vs Tulsa
Iowa State +1 vs Kansas State (Iowa moneyline ok)
South Carolina +175 at Kentucky (+4.5 ok)
And two Washington related totals:
USC vs Washington State - Under 64.5 (63.5 ok)
Arizona State vs Washington - Under 56 (55.5 ok)
I am a bit annoyed that South Carolina went from +205 to +175 while I was posting this. So I edited my post to reflect that line. Sadly I didn't bet before I posted either, so I got the +175 also.
Gonna go Kalam style and fire a few more.
Hopefully I don't go 0-9 or something. That would be embarrassing. At least Florida is up 10-0 to start.
Akron +10 at Ohio
Vanderbilt +17 vs Ole Miss
Stanford +170 vs Oregon State (+4.5 ok)
This Florida game going south quickly. Quick 10-0 up, then they just fell apart. Latest fail is a fumble. Might be 14-10 Mizzou by the half.
My record with chalk across all sports is pretty bad.
NOT BETTING RELATED BUT HOLY FUCKING SHIT AT DRAFTKINGS. B2B WEEKS A TOP NCAAF PLAYER SUDDENLY OUT WITH NO WORD ON DRAFTKINGS UNTIL AFTER LOCK.
Today I learned that I'm better at NFL picking than NCAAF picking.
How it's going:
Florida -11 vs Missouri - Got off to a great start, then Florida shit the bed. Ended up a 7-point win for them, not enough. LOSS
Akron +10 at Ohio - Akron defense was just awful the whole way. Down 48-20 after 3, they actually had a chance to cover when they made it 48-34, but it's about to lose by 21. LOSS
Navy +5.5 vs Tulsa - Looking very good. Almost bet moneyline but chickened out. 33-14 near end of 1H. Could possibly get FG to make it 36-14 at halftime PROBABLE WIN
Vanderbilt +17 vs. Ole Miss - I was very tempted to bet moneyline for half of this, but didn't see Vandy winning outright. 20-10 Vandy after almost 2 quarters! PROBABLE WIN
Washington at Arizona St - Under 56 - Only 2 TDs so far, with 6:22 left in 2nd, but it's 10-10. Could go either way, but slightly favoring winning. TOSSUP, FAVORING WIN
Other 4 haven't started yet.
Fading DeGrom and his blister
San Diego Padres +154 v Mets
Did you know he has a blister? No? Neither do the ploppies to whom DeGrom is a trusted brand name….. at least that’s my value argument.
That's actually a very good argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Also, the Mets are the Mets, and they seem to find a way to fail. They already blew the division lead, now they can complete the fail by going 2-and-out at home in the Wildcard Series.
Sharp money is on Padres. I'm close to doing it myself. I just don't trust Snell. I know he was killing it during the final month-plus of the season, but I could easily see him getting bombed here. But if I had to pick a side on this, I would go Padres moneyline.
My Arizona State under has gone in the toilet, with lots of scoring in the end 6 minutes of the 2nd. 41 at the half. Kiss that goodbye.
Navy is pretty much a lock. Vandy up only 3 at the half. I could see Ole Miss just obliterating them in the 2nd half, so I can't count that a win yet. Still, that would leave me 2-3 in my first 5.
This is kind of a tryout to see if I'm any good at NCAAF. Much like I was doing a tryout with NFL, which has gone better than I ever imagined, though obviously some of that is luck. If South Carolina wins and gets me my +175, that will be a big boost.
So sick. I am going to throw up.
I had U49.5 in the Georgia game. At the end of 3 quarters it was 21-3, and I had a stone cold lock. First 5 minutes of the 4th Q there is 3 TDs, all on long plays, and now I am fucked up the ass. Unreal. Why do I continue to do unders? It is literally a 0% win rate, and yet I just keep throwing money away.
I am not even joking. I do about 2 or 3 unders a weekend, and they always lose, so I am basically just spotting the bookie 3 bets every week. Why? Why? Why?
lol, i hear ya kalam. i am 0-life on betting unders, i don't bet them anymore, not worth it.
Unders are for player props, not ncaaf totals.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPeters
As soon as these money junkies get their act together and have 4 playoff eligible super conferences they will get to work on making teams do injury lists. Draftkings will make sure of that Because there are some syndicates that specialize in injury plays and they do very very well (save three weeks ago when they bet SD when they knew Herbert was playing vs Jax and they took it right in the ass).Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
All comes down to Stanford whether I have a winning day.
Why they're still playing at 11:07 PT is beyond me.
Holllllllllld
LOL.
I had Oregon St. money line (as part of a teaser) and over for the game.
Oregon St. is down 14 and scores a TD at very beginning of the 4th and goes for 2 for no good reason and fails. Then they score again and go for 2 again and fail again.
So instead of being tied 24-24 with game likely to go over, and a 50/50 chance to win, Oregon St. is likely to lose and game unlikely to go over.
It really is amazing how these completely inept college coaches always go for 2 in bad situations and running shity plays that have no chance of succeeding.
Glad you posted this. I didn't understand that first two point conversion attempt. Dumb.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Not that I'm complaining. You have a shot though because Stanford is playing like crap at the end here.
Oregon State has 57 seconds to Hail Mary it to a touchdown.
OMG
Those fuckers did it.
Quick 20 yd gain and then a 56 yarder to win it.
Unbelievable. +170 down the drain
Congrats Kalam.
And Oregon St. scores a miracle TD with 10 seconds left in game. Never in doubt.
That was a bad fucking beat.
I end up 3-5-1
Tied Iowa state, won USC under, Navy, and So Carolina (+175).
Lost 1.45 units. Had I won this Stanford, I would've won 1.25 units today.
Nothing else besides Iowa St and Stanford were close.
:fail2
Yeah. Anyone who had Stanford ML or the under that would have been brutal. I of course still lost today so Pyrrhic victory, but we take what we can get.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
David Shaw, Stanford coach, does idiotic shit pretty regularly like get too conservative and allows teams to get back into games. Harbaugh built a decent program uo there and he’s been fucking it up ever since.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamYeah. Anyone who had Stanford ML or the under that would have been brutal. I of course still lost today so Pyrrhic victory, but we take what we can get.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I bet this also. I thought about ML also as I thought Stanford was due, and those pacific northwest teams play like shit on the road, then thought I better take the 4.5 because Shaw will likely fuck it up because he’s a legit retard. I always feel bad for his kids because among football players, Stanford isn’t like some schools that let just anyone in. Some of the smartest kids in the country coached by a retard. I didn’t even watch it, so idk if he went into a shell, but he usually does. I just bet it and then went to bed
Single @
-109
Won
Oct 8 • 2022
Ticket ID: 504716
Point Spread: Stanford +4.5
Oregon State @ Stanford
I don’t love this one but only bet I have so far. I keep thinking how does it lose? They usually do when I feel that way.
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Oct 8 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5047128034
Point Spread: GB Packers -2.0 @ -286
NY Giants vs GB Packers
Point Spread: MIN Vikings -2.0 @ -295
CHI Bears @ MIN Vikings
Odds:
-125
I don’t love anything this weekend, so I’m just taking a shot on some gut feels.
Feel like TB defense might abuse MM after getting eviscerated by Mahomes. Belichick v Lions and I think Zappe is an upgrade. Carolina is a mess.
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Oct 9 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5048092405
Point Spread: TB Buccaneers -6.0 @ -190
ATL Falcons @ TB Buccaneers
Point Spread: NE Patriots -2.5 @ -130
DET Lions @ NE Patriots
Odds:
+171
Parlay (3 Picks)0 of 3 settled
Oct 9 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5048057802
Point Spread: TB Buccaneers -6.0 @ -190
ATL Falcons @ TB Buccaneers
Point Spread: NE Patriots -2.5 @ -130
DET Lions @ NE Patriots
Moneyline: SF 49ers @ -275
SF 49ers @ CAR Panthers
Odds:
+271
TODAYS PROLINE
MIAMI -3.5 (BASICALLY PROLINE ml SINCE THEY GOTTA WIN BY 4)
TENN -1
SF/CAR u40
ARIZONA +5.5
DETROIT ML
PAYS 30/1
So you didn't stay up to 3 AM to watch? Nothing too egregious. Pretty typical spot. Stanford was up 2 points in FG range with about 1 minute left. So just need one first down to ice game. On 3rd and 3 he brings in his running QB, and it is a QB read option (except I dont think there was any option, I think the QB was always going to keep it) and the defense sells out on the QB who keeps the ball and gets stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. Stanford kicks a FG, goes up 5. Nick Saban probably does the same thing in that spot (with a much better defense to back him up of course).Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRDavid Shaw, Stanford coach, does idiotic shit pretty regularly like get too conservative and allows teams to get back into games. Harbaugh built a decent program uo there and he’s been fucking it up ever since.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I bet this also. I thought about ML also as I thought Stanford was due, and those pacific northwest teams play like shit on the road, then thought I better take the 4.5 because Shaw will likely fuck it up because he’s a legit retard. I always feel bad for his kids because among football players, Stanford isn’t like some schools that let just anyone in. Some of the smartest kids in the country coached by a retard. I didn’t even watch it, so idk if he went into a shell, but he usually does. I just bet it and then went to bed
Single @
-109
Won
Oct 8 • 2022
Ticket ID: 504716
Point Spread: Stanford +4.5
Oregon State @ Stanford
And Oregon St. scores a game winning TD drive in 1 minute with no timeouts which is crazy, but in CFB stuff like this happens. Less crazy than the Houston ending.
Also, to your Stanford point; it is pretty much impossible to transfer to Stanford through the portal (which you need now to compete), so I suspect the good stretch that Stanford has had under Harbaugh and Shaw has come to an end, and they will go back to being a bad team like they were pre Harbaugh.
Also, I suspect the extreme progressive politics of the Bay Area has hurt Stanford and Cal recruiting the last couple years. I am pretty sure both those schools still have mask mandates, as do many of the local businesses. I dont know if it has happened yet, but Cal was talking about flu vaccine mandates and mandatory masking for students that dont comply. What the fuck college kid wants to deal with that level of Covid hysteria in 2022? And this is all on top of all the Bay Area downtown areas turning into giant homeless camps/open air drug markets.
Wow. Completely forgot about London game. Packers up 17-3 so looks like about how one would expect it to go. Made a lot of these bets early in week so lines might have moved. So far:
Cowboys +5.5
Lions +3
Bucs -2/Vikings -1 tease
Jags -1/Pack -2 tease
Raiders +7.5
Sewhawks +6
Ravens/Chiefs O47.5
Jets +3.5
Browns +1
Cards +5
Titans -3 +100 (WTF happened here. I see the line is pickem now. A line moving from 3 to pickem in the NFL with no breaking QB news is pretty insane IMO. I still like Titans, but obviously I would have much rather had pickem than -3.
[QUOTE=Kalam;1058613
Titans -3 +100 (WTF happened here. I see the line is pickem now. A line moving from 3 to pickem in the NFL with no breaking QB news is pretty insane IMO. I still like Titans, but obviously I would have much rather had pickem than -3.[/QUOTE]
yeah, that is some serious reverse line movement as the public is all over Tenn. i hate it b/c i also like Tenn. I couldn't be Wash, so too Tenn at pk. GL
i'm feeling better about my bets today now. the only other game i'm also on with you is Cle at +1.5; so should be a good day :)
I sure hope the packers don’t go for two if they score
Fuck. What I deserve for betting that shit London game
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Im in a cruise ship this weekend so didnt do as much research as i normally would. Fucked around and found out with a packers wong teaser.
Yesterday was a big lesson in making sure you got the right number.
Most people got Michigan -21.5 or worse. Most people got Kansas +7. Most people got Stanford Under 54.5.
People who got the right number did well. Others who said “fuck it” and settled took it in the ass or pushed.
My NFL runbad has finally arrived.
Down 30-28, Browns have it on the 9 yard line and throw an INT with 3 min left in the game. Awful. Pretty good shot to win if that doesn't happen.
Probably going 0-2 today, unless Seattle can come back, down 31-25 in the 4th.
These retards going for 2 inexplicably is going to fuck me again. If I’m lucky and TB doesn’t blow a 21-0 4th qtr lead. 21-13 and Falcons go for 2 when I have -6 and the other game is won in my parlay. Now I’m sitting 21-15
Browns actually got the ball back and got it to the 35. But they couldn't complete 2 passes, and missed the FG.
:fail2
Go Seahawks