Other than the absence of Justin Turner, this is a pretty strong lineup for this time of year.
https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1571985035309490177
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Other than the absence of Justin Turner, this is a pretty strong lineup for this time of year.
https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1571985035309490177
Well, this is a surprise. Burnes gave up a 3-run shot to Alonso, and dead arm Scherzer (who had the same ailment in the late 2021 season) is somehow throwing a perfect game through 4.
Didn't see this one coming.
:fail2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Looks like someone figured out fading the public is the only way to make money on sundays.
New Orleans got me too
Going to be hard to say this and truly mean this with KC and Buffalo playing as well as they are, but Miami may end up leading the NFL in scoring this year. They got themselves a real nerd calling the plays - hes like a bill james of football.
Tua MVP +2000
Worked again tonight. Eagles easily took it, bringing me to 7-1-1 on the early season.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Looks like someone figured out fading the public is the only way to make money on sundays.
New Orleans got me too
Okay, while admittedly I haven't been as good at MLB lately as I have at NFL, time for a pick today.
Starting at 5:10pm PT
Kansas City (Lynch) +112 vs. Minnesota (Ober)
Postseason hopes are pretty much over for Minnesota.
These last two weeks of the season were made just for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:entertained
So the total of the Browns/Steelers tomorrow is 38.5. And apparently betting under on very low totals like this have been very +EV the last few years or so. Although I suspect that a lot of these low totals were weather related, and not due to horrible QBs and good defenses, like this matchup has. So it might be an apples to oranges situation, and the strong trend isn't that relevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThese last two weeks of the season were made just for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:entertained
Thank you. I hope so.
This one was leading the entire way, though the lead was shaved down to 1 on two occasions, so it wasn't a breeze. But I felt the entire way it was going to win.
Minnesota just feels like a team that has given up and burnt out at this point.
I’m actually going to this one tomorrow night. I looked at that total and thought under right off the bat. Then I thought about it a little more and it gave me pause.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
My main concern if I’m under is the Browns have been having blown coverage fails late in both games and I think Tomlin is probably one bad Trubisky quarter and a half from throwing in their rookie Pickett.
I think he might be a pretty significant shot in the arm upgrade right off the bat. It’s a matter of when not if that he makes the switch.
Chubb wearing teams down is the best part of Cleveland’s offense. I think a possible QB switch at some point in the second quarter or at half coupled with Chubb getting stronger as the game goes on makes the first half under 19.5 more attractive than the 38.5 imo
I'm sitting out tomorrow's Browns/Steelers game. No lean on either the side or total, though Kalam's theory was interesting.
Here is how I am leaning for Sunday, but I am not making these official nor betting them just yet.
Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47
Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5
Atlanta -110 at Seattle
If you can find a stale Minnesota -2.5 around id take it
MLB?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Is +200 good enough?
Mitch Keller has quietly been really solid lately.
Pittsburgh (Keller) -112 vs Cubs (Wesneski)
LFG
Got a sweat here. 2nd and 3rd, 2 out in bottom 9th, 3-2 Cubs.
Rodolfo Castro up
Edit: Nope. Nice line drive by Castro, but right to the center fielder. Game over.
Pirates blew bases loaded in the 7th without scoring. I had a feeling that was going to be the decider. Two shitty teams, and the one I picked lost by 1.
Oh well.
So down 9 with 4 minutes left Steelers punt it on 3rd and 3 from their own 13. Not sure about that one. I actually have Steelers +4.5, so punting is good for me, as IMO it increases the chance of a Steeler cover, while possibly decreasing their chance of winning. But given that ostensibly they are trying to win the game, not sure a punt is the optimal play there.
Steelers still very very unlikely to cover, but more likely with the punt IMO.
WTF. Steelers have 4th and 5, and Browns have 12 men on the field during the FG try and it is a 5 yard penalty, but they only give them 4 yards for some reason. If you look at the box score they actually put it in as a 4 yard penalty, which is impossible. So Stealers kick the FG on 4th and 1 and will lose by 6 and dont cover. Some real fishy stuff going on here.
How the hell do you just decide to make too many men on the field a 4 yard penalty? It is amazing, they dont even pretend anymore they aren't rigging the games. I guess they know we are all going to bet anyways even knowing it is rigged, so why should they care? Jokes on us.
And of course what really sucks is that I was in the same spot last week, except I had the favorite (Chiefs) and the Chargers went for it and converted on 4th and 10 to get the cover.
Now that we're coming into the weekend, let's do some NFL picks. Hopefully I'm not too early this time.
Jacksonville +7 at Chargers (bet soon, line probably going to 6.5)
Indianapolis +200 vs Kansas City (+5.5 ok)
Atlanta -103 at Seattle
Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47 -105
Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5
(Lucky post #48,000 for me.... hopefully!)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
The ending - imagine having teased Pitt.
Hope you guys got your bets in early on Jacksonville +7. The line has gone down to +3.
Justin Herbert is now questionable. On the Jaguars' side, Shaquil Griffin may not play. Several other Chargers may also miss the game.
Just one MLB pick today.
Jose Urquidy has had two bad starts in a row -- and against bad teams. He's pitched 157 innings this year. His previous high was 107. Fatigue?
Let's fade him.
Baltimore (Kremer) +122 vs. Houston (Urquidy)
I wanna go to Nepal, Dan
I didn’t see this myself but I completely agreed with Todd’s pick once he pointed it out. Picks have been so good. These last two weeks of the MLB season are being played just for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff is on fire.
Kremer had been solid lately but I didn't expect him to throw this gem. Urquidy was better than expected, but the Houston bullpen sucked, so it wasn't close. Not quite the way I pictured it going down, but it still worked.
Bottom line is that Baltimore is at home, trying to pull off a miracle playoff qualification, whereas Houston is literally playing for nothing. Astros have clinched the division, are 6 games up for the best AL record, and 6 games back for the best MLB record. Games are meaningless.
I cooked up a +353 parlay anchored by your O’s. I went first 5 cause I was not too knowledgeable about bullpens (stock market cratering prevented me). I mindlessly plugged in heavy New York favorites. Spent about 2 minutes of thought.
Baseball - 966 Baltimore Orioles +115 for 1st 5 Innings
Baseball - 968 New York Yankees -225 for Game
Baseball - 979 New York Mets -218 for Game
Mets are ahead 8-0 in the 6th and it’s prolly pretty safe
Haven’t spent 5 seconds looking at football so I may be an impressionable lad. Be gentle
You think I needed that Clemson OT win a little bit?
Filter by time
Parlay (2 Picks)Won
Sep 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 499687
Point Spread: Clemson -2.0 @ -265
Clemson @ Wake Forest
Point Spread: Kansas -2.0 @ -230
Duke @ Kansas
Odds:
-103
Parlay (2 Picks)Won
Sep 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 49968
Point Spread: Baylor +8.0 @ -250
Baylor @ Iowa State
Point Spread: Clemson -2.0 @ -265
Clemson @ Wake Forest
Odds: -104
Parlay (2 Picks)Won
Sep 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 49968
Point Spread: Baylor +3.0 @ -117
Baylor @ Iowa State
Point Spread: Clemson -2.0 @ -265
Clemson @ Wake Forest
Odds:
+157
As someone who is heavily invested in auburn over 6…… L oh freaking L
Slightly better than square action
Utah st +3
Ull -9.5
Hawaii +4.5
Gardner webb +7
&
Death, taxes, Bama 1H
LOL. I have Florida +10.5.
With about 4 minutes left they are down 17 and score a TD and go for 2 and miss, so down by 11.
WTF. Even if they make it they are down 9 instead of 10. How is that helpful at all? There is still 4 minutes left and Tenn will probably score again so it wont matter. But seriously, WTF?
I also have Texas Tech +7. And they were up 3 points with 20 seconds left kicking off and allowed Texas to get 3 big chunk plays and tie it. Will probably lose by 8 in OT. This is unreal.
All season just the same nonsense over and over and over.
Seriously. Florida not covering is straight bullshit. Who the fuck goes for 2 to cut it do 9? It is just bad football. T
Edit: Got in the back-back door with 17 seconds left. And Florida gets the onside kick, but should be down 3, but are down 5. So the retarded going for 2 actually cost them massive EV (with almost no possible upside) in this spot.
Got this live during first quarter. Was dead as fuck and caught miracle. That Florida coach is a stone cold retard. Going for 2 down 17. Called timeout when Tenn had ball at end of first half that gave then just enough time to score TD.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Living right today
Single
@
+145
Won
Sep 24 • 2022
Ticket ID: 49986
Point Spread: Florida +6.0
Florida @ Tennessee
I dont have any action, but if you did have action the end of the Oregon/Wash. St. game must have been a serious roller coaster.
Cliffnotes:
Oregon scores 3 TDs in the span of a couple minutes late in the 4th to go from losing the game to covering the 6 (up by 10). Then on the second to last play of the game, Wash. St. completes a hailmary that is downed at the 1 yard line. And Wash. St. scores last play of the game to sneak in the backdoor.
WTF. Have Arkansas +2, and they were up 14-7 and had 1st and goal from the 3, and RB was stripped and defense ran back 99 yards. Sick 14 point swing there.
Let's do a late baseball game.
St. Louis probably going to have a scoring hangover after the 11-0 drubbing yesterday of the Dodgers.
St. Louis (Montgomery) at Los Angeles (Kershaw) - Under 7.5 -115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I had Fla too and almost stroked when he went for 2. That’s fireable imo.
Thank god your on ark bc I’m on am.
Could you go ahead and post tomorrows picks for us??
Tia
That play was dumb as hell…QB dove from the 3 yard line…what an idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Damn Dodgers too good.
3 HR already off Jordan Montgomery, who seems to be tiring at the end of the year (my one concern with this bet).
4-0 after 2.5 innings. Not good so far.