Printable View
I had a big bet on KC -4. Chargers just backdoored completing twice on 4th down on final drive, including once where they maybe should have kicked the FG (I honestly am not sure how the math works on that last play). I feel physically sick. This is like the 4th time this year already I have lost like this.
Let’s see if we can go 2 for 2Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
3 team teaser +147
Pittsburgh Steelers +8
Minnesota Vikings +8
Cincinnati Bengals -1
I love them individually but football is football. We shall see
I took Cubs -125 v Pirates in the 2:20pm afternoon game. I had them higher than -125. It’s a bum fight and I’m not proud. Just a value play and action on a slow day. I really need to stop baseball til playoffs.
You mean Cubs vs Rockies, right?
Rockies do suck on the road. Marquez is back to his usual pattern, though, where he's good on the road, and awful at Coors. They really should just ship him out.
ER last home games for him: 9, 6, 2, 4, 1
ER last road games for him: 2, 0, 3, 2
So that's 4 strong starts on the road, with one of them being against the Mets, allowing just 1 hit.
I don't know... I have mixed feelings about this one. I will admit I considered Cubs, too.
I'm eyeing Texas and Martin Perez at the moment.
You know what?
I'm gonna hit Texas. Martin Perez is really good as long as he's not facing the Astros. In his last 10 starts, he allowed 1 ER six times, 0 ER once, 2 ER twice, and 5+ ER twice. Those two bad starts were against Houston. Otherwise 7 of his 8 past starts had 6-7 IP with 1 ER.
He faces Kluber who got destroyed by the Yankees last time out, but also pitched very well against them the previous time.
I think I'm gonna first-5 it. I don't trust the Rangers bullpen, especially when they have nothing to play for (and Tampa does).
Texas (Martin Perez) +120 at Tampa (Kluber) -- FIRST 5 INNINGS
Is that a malaprop, Druff? Yes Cubs over Rockies.
I love the Texas idea. A morsel of goodness hidden in the F5. I wanna make it my own tho. Allegedly a low scoring game so I’m going to take
Texas Rangers +½ -120 for 1st 5 Innings
I took Red Sox on RL but I got +100 in the early AM. Just an idea. Home team though and I don’t really like as much RL -113 but Royals Heasley is soooo bad.
Cooler nights so let’s be cautious with totals as seasons change
There are sightings of Dodgers injured pitchers with baseballs in their hands. Hmmm
Spin rates are back near the 2020 peak and the weather is cooling. If you wanna offer some unders I’m all ears.
I just don’t have a process for that.
1. ACCUMULATOR (4) (lil freebie from stars, bet a 3 teamer, get same $bet as freebie for another 3+ teamer)
Colorado Rockies @ +105
Money Line
Lots of bats out for Cubs, may not matter, but meh
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
0-1
Miami Marlins -1.0 @ -105
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
20:05 ADT
Toronto Blue Jays -1 @ -133
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
20:07 ADT
New York Yankees -1.0 @ +105
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
21:10 ADT
2. TREBLE
Miami Marlins -1.0 @ +100
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
20:05 ADT
Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ -105
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
20:10 ADT
Chicago White Sox -1.0 @ -138
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
20:10 ADT
3. ACCUMULATOR (4)
Over 52.5 @ -110
Total Points
Texas State Bobcats @ Baylor Bears
17 Sep, 13:00 ADT
Oklahoma -11.0 @ -110
Spread
Oklahoma Sooners @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
17 Sep, 13:00 ADT
Syracuse -1.5 @ -110
Spread
Purdue Boilermakers @ Syracuse Orange
17 Sep, 13:00 ADT
Tulane +14.0 @ -110
Spread
Tulane Green Wave @ Kansas State Wildcats
17 Sep, 16:00 ADT
4. ACCUMULATOR (4)
Cleveland Browns -6.5 @ -118
Spread (Incl. OT)
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
18 Sep, 14:00 ADT
Washington Commanders @ +100
Money Line (Incl. OT)
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
18 Sep, 14:00 ADT
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 @ -118
Spread (Incl. OT)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
18 Sep, 14:00 ADT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ -118
Spread (Incl. OT)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
18 Sep, 14:00 ADT
Detroit (Manning) +125 vs White Sox (Giolito) - First 5 innings
Hit 'em both. Turned out I didn't need to do first 5. I could have done full game and won both, and won a bit more money. But I stand by it.
Texas squeaked by by 1 run, and Detroit was tied in the late innings. Both could have lost, but won more easily first-5. The first-5 bet also gives you the tie possibility, which is nice to have when you're betting the dog. I did see San did +0.5 to prevent that tie from occurring.
I do like San's theory to bet first 5 when you're firing on bad teams. I think he's onto something. This is especially valuable in the era when pitchers usually go 5-7 innings, even if throwing well. Sucks having to count on bad teams out of contention, with fail bullpens, to hold a small lead, just because you backed a strong starting pitcher. I was doing these bets last year, but got away from it this year, and I had a lot of late game losses. Too bad there's not more left in the season, but I'll be utilizing it more for the last weeks here.
Bringing down our average with a 2-1. The baseball picks have been running crazy good.
Your Texas idea saved the day, Druff. In fact, you were more profitable than me. Betting a bum home team (Sawks) on the RL broke every convention of civilized wagering. I am better than that
Chicago Cubs -125 ✅
Texas Rangers +½ -120 for 1st 5 ✅
Boston Red Sox -1½ +100 ❌
How about betting against a bum team... with an even worse team?
Double pick involving the KC/BOS game.
Kansas City (Singer) +105 at Boston (Hill) - First 5 innings
KC/Boston - Under 8.5 -105
Had Purdue. they score to go up 4 with about 1:30 left. Of course they should have been up 10 except for LOL kicking, but I digress.
Syracuse marches down the field in a drive where they didn't get a single yard except for penalties until the last play. 50 yards in penalties. 2 dead ball personal fouls (they never actually explained or showed what happened, we just had to take their word for it I guess), 1 PI and 1 defensive holding. Then with 7 seconds left they score the winning TD on a 30 yard pass to the end zone. Dude was wide open too. I guess it never occurred to the Purdue defense the team down 4 would go for the end zone with 14 seconds left in the game.
LOL. LOL. LOL.
Betting football is more fun than making money on bad baseball. I understand.
I just realized Rich Hill is an old friend of yours Druff.
The Dodgers still have their foot buried in the throttle. Respect - can’t lie. Full lineup.
They had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Stubborn Bellinger will be smoking weed come playoffs. I want to collect the check mark on the subject of Bellinger as a hater from day one but he had 2 tremendous years. He looks dumb and he is dumb and un-coachable not because of attitude but b/c he’s stupid. I’m offering you boys a draw on the subject of Bellinger. You should take it.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamThey had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Free up that Belly money for Trea Turner
That idiot is out of the lineup tonight and I’m cooking up a little parlay stew that I’m not proud of but greed.
That sentence puzzled me. What scrubs got playing time and who in the lineup was injured? Gonna let you in on a secret: only the top 3 in the order matter. The rest are utility grade bolt ons. The power trio is so superlative and historic that might be enough. I would rest them but I’m not a Dodger quant.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamThey had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I do give the Dodgers sincere respect for coming to play when it hasn’t mattered for quite a while. I really can’t think of any similar paradigm short of the 2007/8 Patriots - that was driven by hate which is more fun. Dodgers +320 run differential. The Patriots ran up the score every game of that undefeated season. Belichick was all pissed off that year. Good times.
2007 Patriots and 2022 Dodgers same sad outcome come to think of it. Both were perennial champs in rubbish divisions. I could do quite a riff. I never thought to compare the two cause… Patriots have lots of rings and Dodgers have none …. Maybe that’s why.
I have to issue Dave Roberts a pardon. He has kept these guys playing hard. That’s coaching. Roberts will exercise the pardon come playoffs. That’s fine
Speaking of which, Brady and Giselle are split. Is that exploitable? The press gonna come hard
The old, married Mormans getting their ass kicked. That was the only game I felt connected to. I played BYU last week and was traumatized by the kicker.
Funny team.
Win or lose the BYU players will go home and bathe the kids and the wife will have supper ready for them
Do Mormans get paid like other college athletes? By whom? Diaper companies?
Boston reliever Tyler “Cheese” Danish. That bullpen is a blight on the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You still eked out pizza money anyway Druff. Great wagering regardless of outcome.
I will say that the you gotta have some depth beyond the top 3, or otherwise it's a shit team. Look at the Angels. The Yankees also have a pretty bad team after LeMahieu/Judge/Stanton/Rizzo, and right now they're missing LeMahieu.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The Dodgers offense is great this year because they have guys capable of having good games in the 5-8 spots, even if the 1-4 bunch doesn't have a good game. When Max Muncy and Justin Turner (both improving a lot as of late) are your side contributors, you're in great shape.
The bullpen is the glaring hole on this team. Can you count on anyone there against a good lineup in the playoffs? Do the Dodgers have any reliever even as good as Mets setup guy Adam Ottavino? The answer is NO. (On a side note, the Mets pulled off a great signing with Ottavino, grabbing him for just $4.4m after he had two pretty bad years with the Yankees and Sawks. The trick to Ottavino is to know that all of his years are either excellent or bad, with little in between. There's more good than bad. You grab him for single years at low money, and you've potentially got a huge bargain.)
Who expected the shit Royals to come with 6 runs between the 5th and 6th innings?
I did not. I envisioned an affair where Singer (who is actually decent) was going to slightly outpitch old man Rich Hill for 5 innings, and then the rest of the game would plod along with relatively little action.
For 4 innings, I got that, as it was 2-0 Royals. Then Hill gave up 2 more in the 5th, and German just got destroyed in the 6th. Oh well. Missed that under by 0.5.
I thought I was going to get 'em both after the first 4 innings were in the books.
I could definitely be wrong, but I am pretty sure most of the starting rotation players have missed 25+ games except Trea Turner and Freeman. Plenty of opportunities for Roberts to see the scrubs play.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThat sentence puzzled me. What scrubs got playing time and who in the lineup was injured? Gonna let you in on a secret: only the top 3 in the order matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Ok. This is retarded. Full disclosure I have Maryland -2.5 and over 73, so this is kind of a big deal for my pocketbook.
Anyways, the Maryland receiver scores a TD and gets a celebration taunting penalty. Ok, no biggie. Except there was an offensive hold on the play, so instead of a TD there is a 10 yard penalty. But wait, the taunting penalty still stands, so now instead of a TD we have a 25 yard penalty.
LOL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Thank god. I have smu +3. But also the over; so it’s dead.
Adding:Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dallas +7.5 -115 (+7 +100 ok) vs Cincinnati
Kamara is out for the Saints, Druff
Just DM for a teaser. I’ll be discreet
Good Morning Daly
Well, too late. I already placed this bet days ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarKamara is out for the Saints, Druff
Just DM for a teaser. I’ll be discreet
Good Morning Daly
Oddly the line has barely moved in favor of Tampa. Admittedly I no longer love my position on the Saints, but what's done is done.
I'm going to take a Verm approach here and throw a few more picks onto the pile.
Green Bay vs. Chicago - Under 42
New England -3 at Pittsburgh
New England / Pittsburgh - Under 40 -107
That's 7 NFL picks for me, up from just one the previous week.
Lord help me.
One baseball game. Just about to bet/post it, and there was an 8-point line drop. Still like it.
Anibal the Animal somehow pitching well last several starts. Look it up. Alcantara seems tired, and is over the 200 inning mark, and has thrown over 400 in the past 2 seasons.
Washington (An. Sanchez) +156 vs. Miami (Alcantara)
Hard to resist a +156 line against shitty Miami on the road.
YOU GUYS FORGET THE BRADY BUCS INABILITY TO BEAT SAINTS IN REG SEASON.
QUICK TO POINT OUT NO KAMARA, SLOW TO NOTICE BUCS HAVE NO RECIEVERS. SHAMEFUL ALMOST.
Don't look now, but someone's NFL picks are 4-1-1 so far today, with the only loss being the stupid Saints pick.
Hoping GB game stays low scoring.
Texas is only favored by 4.5 over Texas Tech.
TT offense is terrible, Texas Defense is stout. TT kicker stinks as well.
TT lost last year 70-35 to the worst Texas team in 20 years.
Seems like a no brainer
Got lucky with Green Bay. Was 31 points after 1H, and I basically wrote it off. Then somehow only 6 points scored in 2H, so I covered by 5 points. Wow! If I had the over, I would've been pissed.
So I went 5-1-1 today -- tying the New England -3 pick, losing the Saints pick which I probably made too early (I wouldn't have made it today), and winning the other 5. Dallas even won OUTRIGHT.
That puts me at 6-1-1 on the season for NFL. Who needs baseball?
Thread hitting ridiculous. I’m a little reluctant to post now. Amazing & fun.
Gonna admit when I initially saw Druff bet NFL I was concerned for his mental health but obviously I’m in the presence of greatness and need to stifle my feelings of empathy like a good Republican.
Two ideas awaiting approval from you guys
Cubs (Miley) +128 v Mia (Cabrera) is everyone’s binky but Cubs Miley is close enuff and Miami just can’t score. I don’t understand this line
Dodgers (Kershaw) v D’Backs (Kelly) +215 F5
Similar pitchers. Dodgers coming off extra innings late night Sunday night baseball. Huge travel from San Fran to LA. Do Dodgers rest one or more of the power trio in a meaningless exhibition? Dodgers have a massive bullpen edge - although they used a lot of relievers last night… hmmm. Let’s avoid that and flip some coins with a 2:1 edge.
We need to start fading Kershaw again to prepare ourselves for the playoffs. Rebuild that muscle memory
Mookie Betts last night. Game winning hit and game saving catch. Routine for Betts. His value to the Dodgers is never discussed in conversations about Judge and Ohtani.
If you weed out the Dodgers poor extra inning performance I think the rest of the losses have a high percentage of Betts being absent. I’m too lazy but I know it’s the Dodger power trio or bust.
Playoffs are coming. I used to go to South Point in Vegas for the first round but I think I’m gonna go to Colorado instead and bang some of those legendary new Colorado sports book bonuses. I think only New Jersey ever came close and that ship has sailed.
I got Cleveland and Atlanta in a +200 parlay just before first pitch. BCR knows
Passing on Kershaw fade.
Not willing to gamble the lineup although I believe I am right. I’m a gutless nit. The under 7.5 is really tempting but passed on that too. Diamondbacks really slumping at plate.
Now up to 6.5 but still a no brainer. Wise guys must read pfaQuote:
Originally Posted by Texter
Burnes versus Scherzer. I take Burns.
Starting shortly.
Milwaukee (Burnes) -115 vs Mets (Scherzer)
Okay, I can't resist. Hard to not keep pressing when you're hot in a certain sport.
I've been considering firing on Philadelphia for awhile, but I'm finally doing it. In the meantime, the line touched the -3 mark, which is significant (not in a good way), but I still like it. Wish I hit it earlier today when it was 2.5.
Philadelphia -3 +100 vs. Minnesota (-105 ok)
FLY EAGLES FLY
I don't blame you. He's been good, and the Dodgers are just rolling over these bad teams. They even almost won the other day with all of the "big 3" absent. (It was Freeman's first missed game, by the way. Guy almost never misses.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I like the diamondbacks play. Seems way better than 3-1
Well it's more like 2.5-1, and the money is more landing on the Dodgers side, and not just public money. Dodgers are 52-26 on the road this year, which is different than their other good teams as of late. The dominant Dodgers teams during the last decade absolutely killed it at home, but were only decent on the road. Here to be .667 on the road near the end of the season is insane.Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiper