The analytics guys say momentum isnt a thing, but Ima test it anyway. BYU had no business getting a TD at end of 1st half and I think that punch to the gut affects Baylor.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
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The analytics guys say momentum isnt a thing, but Ima test it anyway. BYU had no business getting a TD at end of 1st half and I think that punch to the gut affects Baylor.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
How that BYU coach plays for a FG after the guy misses at end of regulation is beyond me. They deserve to lose now. Reverse jinx activatedQuote:
Originally Posted by padre33The analytics guys say momentum isnt a thing, but Ima test it anyway. BYU had no business getting a TD at end of 1st half and I think that punch to the gut affects Baylor.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Max sweat value. Scooper! Good thing them silly Mormons were at home, they got ALL the calls..Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33How that BYU coach plays for a FG after the guy misses at end of regulation is beyond me. They deserve to lose now. Reverse jinx activatedQuote:
Originally Posted by padre33
NFL week 1
Carolina -1
Bengals -7
Did one of my teaser-like parlays. Don’t take the full 6, but better odds and if you push one, drops down into straight bet. Obviously you run the risk of your team winning by 1.
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Sep 11 • 2022
Ticket ID: 4956
Point Spread: SF 49ers -2.0 @ -230
SF 49ers @ CHI Bears
Point Spread: BAL Ravens -2.0 @ -220
BAL Ravens @ NY Jets
Odds:
+110
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Reason I like these if I’m going to tease a game and just info for thread as it’s good to know how often games land on a number.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-...art-2013-7?amp
This was of 2013, it’s possible coaches going for 2 and shit has slightly skewed it, but it’s largely accurate.
Like the probability for a game ending at 1 or 2 is roughly 3% for each. So since you have two lines of 6.5 and I like both favorites, I still need to pick the winner on each for traditional tease, and there is no probability argument that with 2 independent events each with a 3% chance of occurring, that the probability of one occurring is greater than the difference between +110 and -112(teaser line offered)- it doesn’t occur anywhere close to 22 per $100. And in this case, 2 pushes if my team wins by 2. I don’t feel like doing the math, but iirc, the chance of one or both occurring is like one might happen less than 10% and both happen some minuscule number. . Certainly not 22/100$
Feel free to correct any faulty math assumptions. I’m getting old and forget exact equation for figuring probability of one event occurring with two independent variables.
Guaranteed one of my teams win by one today after this post
No gamble no future.. 1st week ritual.. Bookies will never drop you after seeing this.
Have some baseball action as well I need to post later.
Baseball action?
Okay
Minnesota (Winder) +130 vs Cleveland (Bieber)
Texas (M. Perez) +106 vs Toronto (T. Richards)
Druff quit fading the jays when they are hotQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hernandez also back to the team today too.
One more. Keep in mind it's on rain delay.
Yankees (German) -125 vs Tampa (Patino)
Sorry but Trevor Richards sucks.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogDruff quit fading the jays when they are hotQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hernandez also back to the team today too.
Probably should've done first 5 but whatever.
Bonus NFL pick.
Sorry aajay.
NY Giants +210 at Tennessee (+5.5 spread ok)
Decided to split NYG bet half ML half +5.5 -106.
I'm not a great NFL guy so keep that in mind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aayjay
i did
A
C (so so public)
E
and Miami big :)
uh, where the hell is Verm? It's game day, son.
The Twins are just so bad.
They lured me into this +130 but they just look horrible at the plate.
I had a pretty big Raven/Bungle teaser where I teased Bengals down to -.5. 5 turnovers, missed extra point at end of regulation, and then missed 29 yard FG at end of OT.
It is what it is.
I have a bet on almost every game, but never got online to post them. My bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Took some brutal beats, with the most spectacular being needing the Bengals to win and Carolina PK.
I also have Houston and Atlanta O4.5 season win totals, and they both found a way to snatch defeat (tie in Houstons case) from the jaws of victory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI have a bet on almost every game, but never got online to post them. My bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Took some brutal beats, with the most spectacular being needing the Bengals to win and Carolina PK.
I also have Houston and Atlanta O4.5 season win totals, and they both found a way to snatch defeat (tie in Houstons case) from the jaws of victory.
Good to have you back in action, pal.
Teasers are working again. Watching tennis not football but I suspect most of the teasers were unnecessary for me.
Not losing is more important than winning.
Was every human on Vikings? I peered into the Vegas NFL contest stats preflop and Vikings were #1. I still teased ‘em.
Huge 3rd set. Great fight
Won everything but the Terrible Twins.
NYG pull it off by a hair.
Guys, here's some friendly advice regarding 6 pt teasers. They are very bad value unless the base line is:
-8.5 to -7.5
OR
+1.5 to +2.5
Otherwise you're just killing yourself. Do a parlay instead.
Also try to not tease games with a high total.
This is a public service announcement, not just aimed at Sanlmar, who I didn't even think teased until I saw the above.
But I will say that I love Sanlmar's thought process on many of his bets, so it hurts me to see him talk about teasers.
I really hate picking the Angels, and my only loss yesterday was against the Injuns, but here I go again fading the Injuns and picking the Angels.
Angels (Detmers) +104 at Cleveland (Pilkington)
Pilikington is a rookie with a 1.606 WHIP over 47 innings, and just a 41-27 K/BB ratio.
I had the Broncos last night. I was a victim of the casuals public Seahawks narrative. Small. Just trying to create some football interest on a slow night. I just couldn’t get into it. The failure of the Broncos inept offense was just boring. Hats off to Pete Carroll.
Anyway…
Injuns are a shifty breed. They scalped Druff. .
Today there is value me thinks
968 Cleveland Guardians -126
Basically a bullpen mismatch handicap
I notice I am not doing F5 much anymore. I’m not doing much of anything tbh. Tennis was the nuts and I’m feeling a let down. Can’t top that competition and betting. Alcaraz my hero. Youngest #1 ever. I was all over it
Every one of my picks did win outright. It was a +200’ish teaser.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I was just trying to get involved in NFL - maybe watch a couple games and get drawn into some handicaps. I just can’t get into football this year. I didnt watch anyway despite my best intentions cause TENNIS
I was kinda insuring my leans cause basically I don’t know what I’m doing. I used some of the Circa contest picks for info which was lazy and clever. That was my Vikings pick along with hating Aaron Rodgers
I followed most of the accepted rules
Wuuwuu
Are we fading Miami Alcantara Druff?
Stock market beckons
That's a good question. I'm going to say yes. He had two starts against the Dodgers -- one terrible, one good. Then he's had two starts since, and neither has looked very good, including one against these Phillies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
This Falter kid isn't great, but he's not terrible. Hasn't thrown a shutout performance yet, but doesn't seem to get bombed. Usually you get 5-6 solid ones out of him.
Let's do it.
Philadelphia (Falter) +110 at Miami (Alcantara)
Here's two more... a bullpen game fading a hot pitcher, and a total. I'll forgive you if you don't want the Brewers.
Milwaukee (Bush/bullpen) +160 at St. Louis (Montgomery)
Colorado (Kuhl) at White Sox (Kopech) - Over 8.5 -105
Kopech just came back from injury and didn't look quite right in his first start since. Kuhl just isn't very good.
Philly (faded Miami Alcantara) +110 ✅
Injuns -126 ✅
Druff winning day too.
Let’s keep rolling.
i fired a lil 3 gamer on the late games last night, all 3 road team runlines. BINK, thx to Padres 9th inning run to win 2-0.
ill fire one up here shortly.
TREBLE
New York Yankees -1 @ 2.00
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
14 Sep, 20:10 ADT
Baltimore Orioles -1 @ 1.80
Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
14 Sep, 20:05 ADT
Cleveland Guardians -1 @ 2.25
Alternative Run Line
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
14 Sep, 14:10 ADT
SINGLE
Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2.20
Money Line
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
13:35 ADT
Dear Mr Chaps,
I am writing you to express some concerns.
First, very nice (Borat voice) Pirates.
I actually marked Red Sox +1½ -146.
May parlay with CWS for some plus odds. Injured Yankees are just an average team & a guy named Judge. Bello is pretty darn good. He’s one of my workers. Two equally meh bullpens. Gonna flip the bullpen coin. Wish I got back on the F5 train but I ain’t perfect.
I’m an Injuns guy - hopefully Sandoval Angels doesn’t go deep. Go with god.
Yung Druff - we on Wainwright Cardinals +111 (not a penny less)?
Mariners -155 is value.
Get away day end of season - gotta have rocks in our head.
What’s the deal with Dustin May? You scheduling a trip where there is no internet in October?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
lol wat. Bello is straight garbage. 1-5, YUGE ERA.
Nobody uses ERAQuote:
Originally Posted by DJ_ChapsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
lol wat. Bello is straight garbage. 1-5, YUGE ERA.
I had him F5 his last appearance for a WIN. Then the Sawks bullpen gave up the game
Nobody gives a shit about Wins & Losses for pitchers
Cease has 42 pitches and he ain’t outta 2nd inning so what do I know. FML. Cy Young dreams evaporating every day
Went 2-1 yesterday, only lost the total.
So let's do a total again.
Kansas City (Greinke) at Minnesota (Gray) - Under 7.5 -120
I was penning an apology Chaps. I’m gonna save it to draft for now
I had Bello's last game, too, except not first-5 so I lost. Was one of those irritating close losses, of which I've had a bunch in September.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Twins under looking good at the moment. Part of me wanted to take Royals ML but I talked myself out of it, thankfully.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
:to
only downside is I played these 4 picks plus Stros runline on my corner store ticket and Astros only mustered up a 2-1 win. so bad.
Perfect as far as I’m concerned Chaps.
I am not impressed with Astros. They will not figure in my playoff outlook
Thread is hitting something like 75% lately.
https://process.fs.grailed.com/AJdAg...oT9iHQWY8sWN3mQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thank you, shit Royals offense.
I got my NFL Giants pick right. Let's try again this week:
New Orleans +125 moneyline (+2.5 ok) vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta +10.5 at Rams
San Francisco -8.5 vs Seattle