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Jays are money at home and not on the road or against teams > .500. Good at beating up on weak teamsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Excellent work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Plus money Orioles was your best pick. Toronto (banned list) just keeps taking public money and Orioles are so profitable as a rule. What do folks see in the Jays?
Sweet money
That being said....tomorrow Jays -1.5 with Manoah on the mound. I dare anyone to take Baltimore.
Such a pitching mismatch. Maybe 1st 5 RL in a parlay. With what I couldn’t tell you yet. Manoah usually does give you 6 innings if not more so the awful bullpen (worse than Orioles) is limitedQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogJays are money at home and not on the road or against teams > .500. Good at beating up on weak teamsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
That being said....tomorrow Jays -1.5 with Manoah on the mound. I dare anyone to take Baltimore.
It’s hard to commit $ to Jays. Doesn’t excite me. Orioles make me happy.
Jays are 2 years away. Manoah skews toward Scherzer and other psychos - so we like him. Compete big time.
Love that new Padres offense. 4 games / 4 runs. Against the mediocre Giants zippo. Something is not right with them. Kids thinking about the LA clubs and La Jolla beach? Pissed off about over priced real estate?
I'm with you. Last season I think you had UAB and South Carolina, I think. Money. I called my Auburn buddy who said he thinks coach will get fired midseason, but I'm with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
For those that care Auburn Over 6 -120ish has quickly become this upcoming seasons “main play” for me. I’ve got it maxed at every out I got.
Most likely scenario in my mind is they start 5-0. If that happens (or even 4-1) that opens up a lot of other bets that can be made. Figure the play Georgia in week 6 you can fire a ML bet on Georgia knowing that you are covered if auburn pulls a big upset, as an example of the “bets on bets”
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiperI'm with you. Last season I think you had UAB and South Carolina, I think. Money. I called my Auburn buddy who said he thinks coach will get fired midseason, but I'm with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Yup. Which reminds me I have a UAB ticket from Caesers I need to cash .
Had someone pitch me on over 63 in week one Hawaii vs WKU. Might be 63 at half.
Last thing I want to do is bet a lot of unders in college but under 59 in the ole miss Troy game week one has a decent look to it.
If you have a local that deals stale futures, wake forest under 8.5 for the max
Pittsburgh (Keller) +132 vs Arizona (Bumgarner)
MadBum isn't the same guy anymore, but that's old news. He's just been a complete mediocrity this season, and while his numbers are similar to that of Keller's, we've seen some nice work out of Keller in his last 2 outings. Both of these teams aren't good and are out of contention.
Never easy.
6-3 Pirates in 9th
Now bases loaded, nobody out for Dbacks
Now a bizarre play where it was a grounder to third which looked like a liner, guy from 3rd scored, and they threw the ball to 2nd, then let the guy originally from 2nd to go back to second, while the guy at first went to second, so there were 2 runners on second!
Then they tagged the guy who was originally on second.
Umpires trying to make sense of this.
Arizona challenged the field call stating that there was a man on 1st, 2 out. They wanted a man on 1st and 2nd, 1 out.
Arizona lost the challenge, now it's 2 outs, 6-4. Nice... so far.
Ends up working out.
Fifth win in a row, most of which were dogs.
:entertained
I didn’t play Pirates but I saw the bases loaded bottom of 9th & no outs. Worried for Ben’s college fund I tuned in.
I have never seen so many base-running mistakes. The complete apathy from the Diamondback announcers was stunning. It was as if, “oh well, another loss”. Part of me thought the chick with the weird looking mouth and the old man didn’t understand what they saw.
Diamondback’s stupidity is your gain.
Similarly, the Yankees ran themselves into a loss against the Mariners the night before. There were two consecutive innings where the Yankees only had two batters but three outs. Just idiotic base-running three innings in a row.
I’ll ask for Sans opinion/take on this but as a matter of history the Patriots DGAF about preseason in terms of wins and losses. It also seems that the giants new ball coach cares about getting win #1.
giants -2
Ravens are like 99-1 in the last 100 preseason games.
Ravens -185
eagles falcons and packers all opened at ~ +3 and went to PK or jumped the fence. packers have comeback to +2. I’d feel ok with the first two
I haven’t been listening too closely to preseason. My hard drive is almost full. I have heard Mack Jones in practice has been really bad. Pats have had really bad practices and I’m not sure how this will manifest in preseason. Bad practices was never the case during the Brady years obviously so Belichick’s comfort in the past might not be present now. Who knows. I’m offQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I actually took Titans (vs Ravens) and the Lions psycho coach. Ravens need to preserve health -something different this year. Why not. Just fun bets.
Free baseball pick. Marlins cannot score & two good pitchers.
Just looked. Panthers are scrimmaging Patriots Mon Tue Weds. Bellichick will hold out his 40 and look for a strong practice from the m vs Panthers.
You got me thinking Daly. The thread pays.
I’m on Giants
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Was happy to see I had some at -1.5…… but also some at -2.5 :(
I’m in baseball mode so I was more inclined to bet the money line instead of the spread. ✅Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Was happy to see I had some at -1.5…… but also some at -2.5 :(
The baseball pick cashed. ✅
You were right about the Ravens. ❌
Too many people follow San and have blocked the Blue Jays.
"bet the Blue Jays moneyline and you could get a 25% bonus in bet credits if they win the game and hit 3 Home Runs, 50% if they hit 4 Home Runs, and 100% if they hit 5 or more Home Runs."
Maybe worth scouting out some pitchers who give up the long ball.
So funny. Sifting thru MLB and had a Jays hateful thought to share.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
But first
World is on CWS under. I get the recency bias. CWS has taken my coins too. CWS still mashes lefties. Kopech is worse than his numbers and lol Norris. OVER 8.5. I got no time to talk about the bullpens. WAITING FOR LINEUPS
I agree with Guardians +143 over Jays. Indians have better pitching. Much better relief. Similar offense slight edge to jays. Flip game. Win or lose, do the right thing and take the value.
To no one in particular…. Mens tennis in Montreal & Womens in Toronto. Nick Kyrgios -290 is a 6’4” big super athlete who is renown for always goofing with crowd and having tantrums. Guy could have played any sport he chose. Crowd loves him. Recently he got serious and was winning. I came this close to +800 for US Open.
Kyrgios had an early match today and looked hung over. Feet never moved but it appeared he thought mammoth serve would be enough. He was quick serving his opponent. Zero time between points.
Loser. OLD MONTREAL restaurants and bars are a little known secret in the states.
Badguy how could you.
Don’t ever speak that fucking assholes name in this thread again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Gonna go out on a limb and say Jays are toast. Still banned.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Indians 8-0 top of 9th nice +143
Those crafty bet boosters. I never even look.
I was hoping my CWS over 8.5 would be tied 0-0 after 9 so I would have a good chance in extras
@Daly
--Ok, time to get serious. Obviously lines have changed and I understand you dont necessarily endorse current lines, but I went through this thread and some recommendations you have are:
WF under
Auburn over
Louisville over
Virginia under
Michigan over
Utah over
Pitt over
--Anything else?
--Any thoughts on Clemson U10.5? Even if the QB gets better, he really is going to not blow 2 games?
Looks like a fairly complete list at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Think Pitt to win division is worth a stab
Utah to make playoff and win playoff - more so as an asset to hedge with.
I’m sure I’ll have some more plays as we get closer to kickoff.
I think Clemson has too much “change” to say where they will land. Could see them walking to a 12-0 season. Could see them struggling to score and going 8-4 in a true bad season. High variance team.
I’ve won like 13 of my last 15 baseball bets as I’ve been riding Cleveland and dodgers run lines, so I’m sure the wagering thread jinx will take over.. If Tristan happens to be off simp, he’s your guy in this series who has the chance to give up multi homers. Sometimes he gets his fastball more belt than chest and has a bad outing. Im obviously betting against that, but if you like your jays and want a sweat if he has an off day on extra value.
Single @
+120
Open
Aug 13 • 2022
Ticket ID: 4871199248
Moneyline: STL Cardinals
MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals
Single @
+104
Open
Aug 13 • 2022
Ticket ID: 4871230907
Moneyline: CLE Guardians
CLE Guardians @ TOR Bluejays
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
“I know a guy” who has line of sight into several thousand accounts. If he is to be believed this is his worst baseball season ever. Every night everyone is taking the favorites and they are just mopping up. No though mt required and it’s square city. There have been the occasional night where all the -200 to -350 favorites go down and within 3 days the players make it all back and then some. He’s never had a losing summer before.
He’s a little worried about September. If the public gets off to a good start “we will have to go into the vault”
His advice was to mind your counterparty risk. If you got a smaller book who has been paying out all summer waiting for fall to get here and it’s all Bills/KC/Tampa covers to start the year people may have some problems getting paid out.
I imagine what kills a book is a run like the Dodgers have had. I’m never laying -270 unless it’s some dumb parlay. They’ve covered the —1.5 almost every night during their streak, often at plus money. I basically bet them any time they are —1.5 +125 or above.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
“I know a guy” who has line of sight into several thousand accounts. If he is to be believed this is his worst baseball season ever. Every night everyone is taking the favorites and they are just mopping up. No though mt required and it’s square city. There have been the occasional night where all the -200 to -350 favorites go down and within 3 days the players make it all back and then some. He’s never had a losing summer before.
He’s a little worried about September. If the public gets off to a good start “we will have to go into the vault”
His advice was to mind your counterparty risk. If you got a smaller book who has been paying out all summer waiting for fall to get here and it’s all Bills/KC/Tampa covers to start the year people may have some problems getting paid out.
The books clearly don’t even want dodgers action atm making the -1.5 -177, so I laid off today.
Good to hear us squares are having a run. We can’t always lose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyLooks like a fairly complete list at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Think Pitt to win division is worth a stab
Utah to make playoff and win playoff - more so as an asset to hedge with.
I’m sure I’ll have some more plays as we get closer to kickoff.
I think Clemson has too much “change” to say where they will land. Could see them walking to a 12-0 season. Could see them struggling to score and going 8-4 in a true bad season. High variance team.
Would you lay this much juice on auburn?
Singles
(1)
@ -165
Minimize
Close
Over 5.5
Number of Games Won - Excluding Bowl Games & Play Offs
For 5.5? Absolutely.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Would you lay this much juice on auburn?
Singles
(1)
@ -165
Minimize
Close
Over 5.5
Number of Games Won - Excluding Bowl Games & Play Offs
Who is dealing that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyFor 5.5? Absolutely.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Who is dealing that?
Legal book. Betrivers.
These states
https://unitedgamblers.com/articles/...etrivers-legal
My book has 6.5. It is shaded to the under -130, but that is still a pretty big disprepancy.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Legal book. Betrivers.
These states
https://unitedgamblers.com/articles/...etrivers-legal
You know what people are killing? MLB first 5 totals.
They are offered on Bovada and some legal books. I don’t know who originates these lines but they are doing a bad job. Looks like there aren’t any traders at the books looking over this action. It’s prolly so thin.
I see guys who post their action every morning and crush every day. Not touts or twitter touts. Just guys.
I don’t have access. I ain’t legal and I will never use Bovada so it’s painful but I’m strong and grudges are ore important to me than money.
Maybe I’ll copy pasta a couple days of picks and torture you too if anyone is interested.
For all the loyalty I have for Betonline I am having trouble with a withdrawal and am awaiting a phone call. Lotta crypto exchange problems these days and I wonder how the processors are doing too. Don’t mess with me man.
First withdrawal for me since Massachusetts passed legislation - doubt that’s it though.
Starting soon
Texas (Dunning) -114 vs Seattle (M. Gonzales)
Texas down 3-0 early, but they're trying to come back for me and win my 6th in a row.
Because of a betting hiatus I took (partially because of my Canadian vacation, partially because I was just not feeling it), I haven't lost since July 22.
Yep. 3-3 now.
Very quickly erased 3-0 deficit from 4 quick hits on the first pitch.
Still runners at 1st and 3rd.
gogogo
Make that 6 in a row
5 small dogs & 1 small fav
https://youtu.be/SIfRlKuYaFE
I doubt many/any of you are sick enough to bet any major money on preseason NFL. But let me say if I bet the saints tonight I’d fucking jump off a tall building and end it.
Just awful coaching and play in general.
I feel like this is the type of game I’m on the other side of all the time (I bet Texans kind of biggish).
Another nfl over….. think that’s 14 opening week?
Remember the “rules integrity fee”
Can you imagine a situation where the Celtics just lost game 5 to golden state to go down 2-3 in a 7 game series and then everyone bets millions of dollars on that result…..
But then an hour or so before game 6 started the NBA issues a presser saying that a foul wasn’t enforced correctly and as a result they are going to change the score of the series from 2-3 to 3-2.
Understand there is a huge LIV related fuck you to cam smith as he is heavily rumored to be here to play these last few weeks before he goes to collect a 125M draw from the Saudis. That’s “probably” *wink wink* what this definitely isn’t about here…… but this is some banana republic type shit.
I passed on betting cam smith this weekend because of LIV related pressure but I didn’t think it would come down to the PGA fucking him over
To square the circle on the below…. They waited until the following day to enforce this.
That's really awful.
3.5 - 1 is a shitty payout for a parlay but no point spreads. I’d be willing to guess there were some sharps out there back in the day nailing these
I just looked at my books odds for CFB championship, and Ohio St, Georgia and Alabama all have short odds, Clemson is +1100, and pretty much EVERYONE else is +5000 (Or very close, some name brands like USC and Michigan slightly lower odds). Crazy how top loaded those odds are.