Jays bounce back game. -125
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Jays bounce back game. -125
My goodness. McCarthy missed top 5 by a stroke.Poston!. Nice one! Free roll for radio coming up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiperMy goodness. McCarthy missed top 5 by a stroke.Poston!. Nice one! Free roll for radio coming up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Yeah thought we had DMc in there as well.
Can’t wait to throw my whole wad at the open and brick.
Glad you made some coin
If you want to know who is going to win the Scottish this weekend ask someone else. I have no idea.
Got Fox KY Lee Herbert and Hatton at better than the
Other than that I may try and beat this live
Added a little Fitz and some Meronk
Miami (S. Alcantara) -142 vs Angels (Syndergaard)
I wouldn’t do it with my money but Pittsburgh +200 vs NYY is definitely a Druff kinda play. Huge value.
I’m on Mia too. I’m even full game like him and I rarely do that. Saving the 10% derivative premium cause these are difficult times. Prolly false economy.
Toronto gave me another black eye this weekend Simpdog. I keep promising to ban their ass and I get punished for cheating. Every single time.
I didn’t know about the first base coach losing his 17 year old daughter and casting a pall over a team which isn’t much older than 17 themselves. Sad shit for me. Sad shit for the family.
$100 sent to Druff. Daly use it however you want, free roll, contest of some sort, or keep it and ask Druff to send to you. All are fine. Thanks for the pick.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiper
Yeah thought we had DMc in there as well.
Can’t wait to throw my whole wad at the open and brick.
Glad you made some coin
I’d have said hang onto it and fire at a Colin M repeat for the openQuote:
Originally Posted by tigerpiper$100 sent to Druff. Daly use it however you want, free roll, contest of some sort, or keep it and ask Druff to send to you. All are fine. Thanks for the pick.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Starting in a few
St. Louis (Mikolas) +149 at Atlanta (Fried)
Going Gotterup and cook at the barbasol
Slowly getting caught up on the upcoming college season.
There is a reason why Ohio state over 10.5 is now -210. I don’t think they lose one game let alone two. Like the bet even Still but hate being late to the party and having to lay more juice.
I don’t see Utah losing 4 games and in fact I think 11-1 is a real possibility and they are not only to win the pac 10 +300 but I think it’s worth a gamble to buy some +5000 for the NC (with the intention to lay off).
Don’t see Michigan losing 4 games either, I’ll take over 9.
Pitt made us some good cash last year winning the conference. Yes they lost the QB and the WR just transferred but the rest of the core team is still in tact and they brought in a lot of talent. Over 8.5 and +1000 for the conference.
Someone is going to have to explain this to me using small words.
Right now on some very popular PPH sites on offer is a Lucas Herbert vs Jordan Smith matchup for the Scottish Open (which tees off in 4 or so hours).
You can buy Herbert for +105 straight up or lay -135 and take him +1.5 strokes.
Currently at bookmaker.ahgee for outright odds on offer
Jordan smith is +11050. He’s approximately the 60th choice by odds.
Lucas Herbert is +4250 or the 14th favorite with shorter odds than Victor Hovland, Joaquin Neimann and Tyrrell Hatton.
daly or jeff?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
53 weeks ago I took Mrs Daly for a long weekend to Vegas. Waking up at 6AM local and going down to the Caesers sportsbook and watching the open while the better half got a chance to sleep in was absolute GOD.
It was the same group of 6-7 of us. I was the only one with Colin so at the end of it I bought a round…… it ended up a great time.
Bc -2’ tonight over Winnipeg. At bc, bc on long rest and whooping butts, Winnipeg on road w short rest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
William Anderson Jr +4000 Edge Alabama
“BuT HeS a DeFeNSIVe PlAyEr”
Let’s start off by saying it would be a absolute certainty that if he came out this year he would have gone #1 and it wouldn’t have been one of these last minute draft day surprises. He absolutely destroyed teams last year. Led the nation with 17.5 sacks. He finished fifth place in the Hiesman last year when his QB won the award. There were many saying he should have at the min been invited to NY. Yes Hutchinson EDGE Michigan finished second for the award ahead of Anderson last year. There were many who felt it was a nod to the overall Michigan year as a whole and that it was Anderson who was the best defensive player in the game.
It’s been parroted many times over the past few years that if the best defensive player X in any given year has zero chance to win the award then WTF are we even bothering….. the voting has caught up to this concept and put two very worth players in the top 5.
“Anderson was so dominant in Alabama’s spring game in April against a makeshift offensive front limited by injuries that head coach Nick Saban had to bench him at one point to give Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young time to throw.”
Baring a plane crash Alabama is going to win the SEC this year and be a playoff team. The QB already has the award and and you may already know it’s historically next to impossible to win the award twice.
Now you have the best most dominant player in the country returning to the best most dominant team in the country with the most influential coach in the country with top top media members with their noses so far up said coaches ass.
There is a lot of chemistry at play here - but I’m calling for the first defensive Heisman Trophy since Charles Woodson.
Edit: he was fifth in last years voting…….. but he was #3 if you only counted first place votes.
So I’m standing by this play as my primary lean.
But
For some reason Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR OSU can be found as high as 50-1. OSU is the other team who it will take a plane crash for them not to make the playoffs.
There is a path here where stroud has a monster year but J-S-N catches 130 for 2000 and 20. Stroud locked onto him at times last year including the rose bowl where he finished with 15 for 347 and 3!
Anything above 30 to one is too high and anything 40 or 50 to one is an absolute insult to the probability of him winning the award.
Same could be said for Gibbs and Henderson as the two primary RB for Bama and OSU but it’s a passing game.
Btw - Anderson can still be found in the 20/25 range but the 30/40 range stuff is long gone. He’s +1200 at BOL!
Is this thing on?
I think the market is telling us one of the top 12 players is going to win this and I think I agree with the market.
X, Fitz, Speith, smith, Colin, Lowry and to a lesser extent Zal and Fleetwood are all in play for me.
The only longshot on the board I truly like at odds is Kurt Kitayama. The fact that he was second at the honda and second last week at the Scottish and the correlation to Performace at the open it’s completely ridiculous that he’s on offer at 200-1 (and 100-1 FRL)
Webb FRL considering he goes off an hour before any other stars at 90-1 is attractive.
Colin at near 30-1 is a total mistake by the market.
Hubbard and Laird for the other event
Glgl
Are you saying that Colin at 30-1 is good for the bettor, or bad?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Good - I think he should be in the 20-1 range
Royals missing 10 guys due to covid restrictions (wtf)
Odds are astronomical so need to get fancy unless you want to do -1.5 -200
Jays over 5.5 runs -110.
The Blue Jays are on the banned list regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
How will they lose to some AAA kids? That’s the fun of baseball. You are always surprised.
-390 on the Blue Jays should trigger an international incident.
Very last minute:
Cubs (K. Thomson) +120 vs Mets (Carrasco)
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe Blue Jays are on the banned list regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
How will they lose to some AAA kids? That’s the fun of baseball. You are always surprised.
-390 on the Blue Jays should trigger an international incident.
I swear whenever you have one of these well publicized -400 games because of some bullshit excuse the all time
Record is 1-500
I am willing to offer myself as a sponsor to both of you - Simpdog and Druff.
Maybe “sponsor” is the wrong term as I’ve never had either of your problems.
I can’t stand by and watch you do this to yourselves and your families.
Just say “no” to the Jays Simp. It’s the hair isn’t it? Hockey guys are suckers for great flow.
I don’t think many of you are doing much with the golf, but for completeness….
I think the am/pm split is being massively under reported at the moment. In fact it was 364 days ago Colin played the PM at ~ -3 when everyone else played the pm wave at +4. This was when a bunch of us doubled down on him.
Rory and Smith are and should be odds on favorites at the moment. That said Im willing to bet in 24 hours Cantlay, Speith, Fitz and Rahm will catch up. I would sure as hell bet Theegala at +8600 before I’d take Rory at +375
I think completeness could involve assembling & presenting your positions on this tournament.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don’t know any of these guys but my impression is we just keep adding names. I have zero sense where you are at.
Show me your accumulated action and maybe I’d pick something to tail for a lark.
I will take a break until the all star break.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Should take a break until hockey starts.
I had a podcast on the other day while I was programming.
It involved Pinnacle hiring Magic the Gathering kids as traders in Curaçao back in the day.
There was a sharp who was smoking Pinny. He took maybe a million one particular year. Pinnacle invites him in and talks to him. He’s a Magic the Gathering player. He makes the case that the skill set for that game lent itself to trading. The sharp convinces Pinnacle that hiring these players was the thing to do.
The guy being interviewed in my podcast was a gamer and Magic kid. Studied Finance @ university. Never played or bet sports. Finance had nothing to do with his appeal to Pinnacle. He wasn’t the top player. He presumed he was 7th or 8th on the list of those hired.
The Pinnacle owner was aware the Magic kid knew shit about sports. He was given a desk regardless. I recall he was assigned totals. I think it was totals for baseball. He was supposed to just figure it out. He received phone calls from the owner but that was it.
I got sidetracked and missed the end of the podcast. My autism allows me to tunnel. I don’t have any idea how I stumbled onto the pod.
MickeyCrimm got me into Risk of Ruin but I’m not sure what leap I took from there. I’m losing it.
Been a tough stretch, but I’ve been painfully close way too many times to count. I wish I was picking guys not making the cut, I would of probably given you by now.
Anyways, this week is the Evian in France for the LPGA. Lately the Asians have been winning. I think the jet lag unfortunately is a concern going with Nelly, but I just have to do it. She lost in a playoff ( I had her ) a few weeks back. So she’s been in contention since dealing with the blood clot.
As for last week, in a team event she effectively shot 9 under with a bogey on Sunday. On a course with only two Par 5s nonetheless. She will have 4 reachable ones in France. Of course best ball frees them up a bit but she still annihilated the course. I am worried about a slow start like she had last year with the jet lag, but she’s the play at 11-1. Pound it. Got to pound it.
Ok I’m in. I also fired JY KO. Figure between them both I’ll have something to watch Sunday.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeBeen a tough stretch, but I’ve been painfully close way too many times to count. I wish I was picking guys not making the cut, I would of probably given you by now.
Anyways, this week is the Evian in France for the LPGA. Lately the Asians have been winning. I think the jet lag unfortunately is a concern going with Nelly, but I just have to do it. She lost in a playoff ( I had her ) a few weeks back. So she’s been in contention since dealing with the blood clot.
As for last week, in a team event she effectively shot 9 under with a bogey on Sunday. On a course with only two Par 5s nonetheless. She will have 4 reachable ones in France. Of course best ball frees them up a bit but she still annihilated the course. I am worried about a slow start like she had last year with the jet lag, but she’s the play at 11-1. Pound it. Got to pound it.
I took cam Davis Ice cold at +2500 for the 3M and only offshore. Turns out locals don’t like it when you go JT Poston, Fitz, Brick, Cam Smith over 4 weeks. Got two dear John calls yesterday….. supposed to be adding accounts this time of year not losing them.
Great handicapping brother. I’ve had Cam Davis last two weeks so I think your looking good and I’ll have a few bucks on him as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Poston at the John Deere I didn’t go with because I thought he would regress that week. Instead he took the great opportunity to get a win in that field and played unbelievable esp first 3 days. Great pick and nice win. I had Cam Davis.
Fitz I could of had but just didn’t make my final cut for the US Open. Had Sheffler. Looked good leading after 8 on Sunday. But Fitz beat him straight up. Hung in there and of course got the best lie in a bunker I’ve ever seen on 18 ( was hoping for a playoff) but he still had to make that shot and he did. Another great pick and win. Tip the cap.
As for the Open. You always been a big Cam Smith guy and it looks pretty soon that we are just going to have him in the majors. I thought the driver would cost him. I didn’t realize the left miss (the one he has) is really not that bad on a majority of holes on the old course. It really only cost him on the 13th on Saturday. Best putting performance I’ve seen in my life. Another great pick.
First bet of substance I cashed in a while was Scott Dixon +550 in the Indy car race last Sunday. He dominated with no bullshit. Modest win but I’m hoping it’s starts a turnaround for me. Was nice to get a fucking W. Long ass drought.
This ticket with Nelly 3 clear on Sunday when Scottie took the lead alone after 8…well I’m glad there was no one recording me. Helped the pain with both losing.
You all are miles and miles and miles better at this than I will ever be, but regarding JY KO, my observation for whatever it's worth is that she has lost a bit of her swagger ever since that fiasco on the 17th hole in the 3rd round at Wilshire Country Club back in April, when while leading the tournament, she hit her second shot into the barranca, in the mud and which has like a 6ft wall to get out of, and her caddie wrongly advised her to try to hit it out. It was bad. She took an 8 on that par 4, has stayed loyal to her caddie when he probably should be fired, and has not been the same ever since. I was there watching that day and I've actually been right next to that spot. It was a stupid move. The video has strangely been wiped clean from the internet or I would post it.
Even losing some of her swagger leaves her in the top 5% of the field every week, and she did finish 4th in the US Open, but she's not the machine over 4 rounds like she was before imo.
Edit: by the way, had Ko just picked up her ball and taken a dropped shot, she most likely would have gotten away with just a bogey 5 and would have led the tournament going into the 4th round (DIO Implant LA Open).
Any way good luck to all, will be fun to watch! (watch her win it now lol)
I agree Joe 100%. Daly got the hot hand. J Ko certainly has been off form but she has and will come out of the fucking blue and play well time after time. She is very hard on herself I’ve found and very streaky in results for such a solid (not explosive) player. She has taken a good amount of time off but that she has played herself into contention and wins off a layoff before. Great price too.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
She also tends to play her best towards the later part of the season. Asian players are traveling the right way so they don’t have to worry about the jet lag. So there are many reasons to like her this weekend. So I’ll try to stretch the bankroll enough to get a few bucks on her. Hope all is well with you.
Best take on LIV Golf and the changing sports landscape I’ve heard. Figured a lot of you would enjoy it. 11 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHl4F_IlKv8
Might have a good one on your hands here jeff….. Kelly damn well could have been 12 under today.
How sport is changing in monstrous fashion is an interesting subject to be sure. I could listen all day to that discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
College sports is my personal favorite. Kind of a called shot for me.
What distracted me was my curiosity about why a middle aged man was broadcasting from his bedroom like some tweener TikTok kid. Not sure I’ve ever laid eyes on Russillo before this.
Approach green was really great 17/18 GIR. Of course a bunch of puttss had good rolls that didn’t go in. She had a couple sliced long fairway woods on par 5s that cost her. She will need to take advantage of those going forward. I am glad she didn’t force it on the last hole yesterday and played that chip way past the whole rather than trying to get it close and risk it coming back to her feet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Cam Davis isn’t out of it yet but the guy needs to stop dicking around out there. We don’t need the disaster hole and countless missed putts. He’ll have to post a good round this morning.
*5/5 GIR to start round and 10 putts to start round. Looks like going to need to get the par 5s to stay near top of the dam board.
Druff has been a real mensch lately so I’m going to treat him to a Druff-style play or two.
Oakland Athletics @ home +104 v Texas
Oakland is trash. Let’s just put that on the table and get it out of the way. They cannot score and Oakland is a pitchers park.
Texas pitcher has 7 ERA and all peripherals lead you to assign him the worst pitcher in baseball. His FIP is 7.70. His WHIP is 1.74. If you spend time with him it gets comically worse.
Texas was in Miami yesterday. I’m sure they enjoyed South Beach. Cross country flight. One of the worst. Oakland played a double header yesterday but it was @ home and they were in their bed with nightly night tea at a reasonable hour.
Roll this in a parlay with Brewers @ +176 or take a RL +200 (on a 7.5 total cause you are a sicko). You’re an adult - I can’t live your life for you.
Now this isn’t classically Druff-style but I believe the contrarian vibe will have appeal for you.
Atlanta Braves @ home -141 vs Angels (Ohtani). No Trout, it’s summer so he’s out.
Ohtani is super human. He has captured the ploppies imagination. I won a AL MVP future with him last year. The greatest player in my lifetime these past two years.
I hate to put this out there but I remember the recuperative power of steroids. I simply do not understand what is going on with this guy.
Angels manager prolly wishes he didn’t go to the All Star game. Ohtani is on the road. Admittedly the hellscape that is Atlanta in summer is really kinda cool tonight. Angels bullpen is rubbish. If Ohtani goes a full 7 I worry. Typically we are laddering strikeouts with him and I’m sure people are entering those tickets now.
Braves are orders of magnitude better than Angels. My retahd model has Braves -200.
Again, consider the RL +150. 7 total. Depends on your strength of character. I’m a nit. It’s too late for me to change but intellectually I know what is right.
Finally, I offer you the Sawks Jays LIVE over
Wind out to center 10mph. 90’s and humid. Little bandbox with some legit boppers on both sides. It was 8.5 and is now 9.
Two good pitchers and if we can get a NRFI or more we might see 8 or better. Jays bullpen is rubbish. I’m of the opinion Sawks bullpen is not as good as their numbers.
If there are 3 runs in the top of the 1st you move on but I’m in your head and that’s what matters to me most.