*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

I was too busy to post the reason for my Cardinals under pick, but it was because Dakota Hudson was looking really good last time out, and I believed he would continue it against the hapless D-backs.

I was correct. He went 6 innings of 1 hit ball.

Unfortunately, the D-backs pitcher, who I knew was nothing special, gave up 5 runs, and then a middle reliever was left in too long, and we had an 8-0 game after 6 (also thanks to an error and some embarrassing stolen bases, including one by Yadier Molina).

Sad!

Interesting how the books have adjusted to the lower scoring, though. Most over/unders today were 7-8 runs.

Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

MLB favorites were 11-1 yesterday. It’s like NHL was until late season.

Betting the same 1 unit on every MLB favorite this season would net about +12 units with about a 4% ROI.

Doing that same for every dog this season would net a loss of about -42 units with an ROI of about -14.8%.

That’s some fine fine balanced action right there folks …. lulz

The favorite win rate this season is 62.94%, which would equate to a no vig line of -169.84. Important number for guys like me and Simp. Guys with money and looks.

The average price of all the favorites at the close so far this season is -158.84, implying a 61.36% probability

Do you think the books are gonna come after the favorites?

xwOBA god Nestor Cortes for Yankees @8:10p vs “who like boobies?” Bubic Kansas City - sorry sizzle

Early stuff I love
Yankees F5 -.5 -140 vs Royals.

Parlay Dodger/Giants (rare acceptable full games) +100’ish.

Yeah, I see the judgement in your eyes. Just remember, I was the guy doing Giants Dodger daily parlays for long stretches last year. You would queue that bet up every morning and ask, “why not?” There was never a reason not to.

It’s baseball and I’ve called my therapist late at night before

I could repeat some attractive under numbers but I believe there is more than one ball being used. Not maliciously but poor Rawlings quality control on far away islands. You can get clues live but I’m hating the live numbers this year. They are sharper than ever.

I’m still catching up on circuitp’s post too.

Don’t misconstrue me. MLB is still garbage this year. We are between innings with NHL - playoffs start Monday

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Originally Posted by Sandwich

UFC Saturday Fight Night early bets...

Carlos Candelario +200
Grant Dawson -180
Marlon "Chito" Vera +120

I have my eye on three others, Gina Mazany (favorite), Tristan Connelly (underdog) and Andrei Arlovski (favorite), but I'll wait for the weigh ins and face-offs tomorrow to pull the trigger depending on how they look and the post-weigh in lines.

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Alright, post-weigh ins, I've added:
Gina Mazany -180
Tristan Connelly +150
Andrei Arlovski -135

Unfortunately headliner Rob Font missed weight so I don't love the fact that I bet his opponent (Marlon "Chito" Vera) yesterday, but now the line has moved to the +110 range so in the immortal words of Carl Spackler, I got that going for me, which is nice.

Lost 2 in a row. Let's try to hit 2 today.

Seattle (Brash) -109 at Miami (E. Hernandez)

Texas (G. Richards) +118 vs. Atlanta (I. Anderson)


Marlins have two very good starters in Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara, but the team's offense still blows. You could do worse than auto-fading the other 3 pitchers in the rotation, at least for now. They're averaging just 3.83 runs per game on offense.

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Originally Posted by Daly

Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

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Lol - over 62 looking good

Everyone in here trying to beat MLB and they giving away free money.

Over 81.5 cashes

Sorry to anyone who had the under 82.5

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by Daly

Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

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Lol - over 62 looking good

Everyone in here trying to beat MLB and they giving away free money.

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There is so much going on. I know the draft is huge but I have given the draft absolutely no attention.

You gotta care enough to follow it and I don’t. Not so much the NFL fan anymore.

I am fascinated by the new college free agency and NIL deals though

I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.

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Originally Posted by gut

a few draft hunches mixed with some degen dart throws.

Gardner 1st CB -140 L
Cine 2nd S +175 L
Ridder 1st qb +1000 L and 2nd qb +400 W
Willis 1st qb, Ridder 2nd +600 L
J Williams o11.5 +120 W
J Johnson II o7.5 -175 W
R McCreary u47.5 -115 W

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Ridder going 2nd saved it for me, and turned a slight profit, but goddamn the near misses. Gardner and Cine literally 1 pick behind. I thought that Stingley chatter was just smoke.

Shouldve faded Willis instead of Pickett. Pickett-Ridder 1-2 combo was +800 I think. Oh well. Steelers still apparently can't get over the Marino miscue.

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Originally Posted by Daly

I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.

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Tailing

Gl us

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Daly

I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.

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Tailing

Gl us

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Doesn’t qualify for the “entertained” treatment but it still paid the bills.

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Originally Posted by Sandwich

Carlos Candelario +200 VOID, fight cancelled
Grant Dawson -180 W
Marlon "Chito" Vera +120 W
Gina Mazany -180 L
Tristan Connelly +150 L
Andrei Arlovski -135 W, very suspect split decision

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Up about a half unit

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Daly

I don’t originate my own MLB plays. Here are a list of season long stuff I have in via some sharp fellas



Gausman AL Cy +2000

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Big no on the Gausman +2000.

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Yeah I whiffed the Gausman thing. Of course, it's only been 4 weeks.

Funny how the other two I liked on your list -- Merrifield leading in hits and Robert MVP -- are both looking awful. Of course, both had long odds.

Oh well.. that's why I don't do long futures.

Today is an under extravaganza:

Angels (Sandoval) at White Sox (Cease) - Under 7.5 -125 (Under 7 +100 ok)
Atlanta (Fried) at Mets (Bassitt) - Under 6.5 +100
Oakland (Jeffries) vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 6.5 +100

Angels start in like 30 minutes, the rest are later today.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Yeah I whiffed the Gausman thing. Of course, it's only been 4 weeks.

Funny how the other two I liked on your list -- Merrifield leading in hits and Robert MVP -- are both looking awful. Of course, both had long odds.

Oh well.. that's why I don't do long futures.

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Merrifield is looking like aids

I wouldn't write off Robert yet

You nailed it though - when you playing the futures game you need to make sure you are getting longish odds. You won’t nail every one of these and sometimes they get written off quickly

Which reminds me…… I think I already have my Heisman pick in and he’s available between 30 and 60 to one currently depending on the out. I don’t think this one is as good as stroud last year but I have a very good feeling about this one, for reasons I’ll explain later.

If anyone wants to go 50/50 on my heisman pick that wants early access let me know.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Today is an under extravaganza:

Angels (Sandoval) at White Sox (Cease) - Under 7.5 -125 (Under 7 +100 ok)
Atlanta (Fried) at Mets (Bassitt) - Under 6.5 +100
Oakland (Jeffries) vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 6.5 +100

Angels start in like 30 minutes, the rest are later today.

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I’ve seen enough. This could be the season of Druff. Until they change balls again.

season of druff? good lord son

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Originally Posted by lol wow

season of druff? good lord son

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You can hardly accuse me of taking the popular side.

Basketball, football and hockey do all they can to promote scoring - to the detriment of basketball and football.

Along comes baseball. I’m siding with the ball being more of an accidental outcome due to crummy quality control and cost savings on some third world island.

There is a generation of bettors who have no experience with unders. Even when they know it’s the right side they’ll just pass.

Obv gotta choose your spots.

I'm ready for some NHL playoff action. Blindly took Bruins and Leafs for some action.
Also on Mets under 7 -120 Twins un 7.5 even Twins -140 Yankees -115
Sixers +8 -115

Hope you guys are well and picking winners

Ouch. 1-2 yesterday -- one easy win, two losses by 0.5 runs.

Truth be told, I hate under 6.5s because it's so easy for that to happen.

Here's two for today:

Cleveland (Plesac) +119 vs. San Diego (Clevinger)
Clevinger hasn't pitched in MLB since 2020, and is coming off TJ surgery and a knee sprain. Even in 2020, he only went 41 innings. Basically the guy last pitched reliably in MLB in 2019, and while he might recover and be okay, there's a lot of rust here. Rainout possible, so be aware of that.

Pittsburgh (B. Wilson) at Detroit (Pineda) - Over 8.5 -105
Wind blowing out. Rain possible, however. Both pitchers are homerun-prone.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Here's two for today:

Cleveland (Plesac) +119 vs. San Diego (Clevinger)
Clevinger hasn't pitched in MLB since 2020, and is coming off TJ surgery and a knee sprain. Even in 2020, he only went 41 innings. Basically the guy last pitched reliably in MLB in 2019, and while he might recover and be okay, there's a lot of rust here. Rainout possible, so be aware of that.

Pittsburgh (B. Wilson) at Detroit (Pineda) - Over 8.5 -105
Wind blowing out. Rain possible, however. Both pitchers are homerun-prone.

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When handicapping stuff like a returning Clevinger bear in mind who the Padres new pitching coach is. The recently departed and long time Cleveland pitching coach. His genius is nothing short of legend. I wouldn’t be so quick to doubt Clevingers readiness unless you sense some rotation drought and desperation from the Padres. I’m not following so I don’t know

Lean Braves game 1, Rays -125, CWS-132.

I can see myself Giants 1st 5 over Dodgers at decent plus money. I still don’t think the Dodgers understand the dead ball or simply don’t care.

It’s hockey night so we will see if I can screw up some MLB enthusiasm

Panthers team goal over 3.5 -140 &/or Panthers reg -165

David Samson on VSIN made another allusion to pitchers immediately sensing which ball they are holding. I HATE hearing that. What do you mean “which” ball?

Samson helps confirm an instinct I hold that there are two balls. Much of what we are witnessing is poor quality control as Rawlings shifted manufacturing off shore.

There are games where the ball is quite alive. There are games where it’s endless warning track. Who can handicap that stuff except live? Brutal

Not betting but a tiny fraction of what I used to in MLB. I’m ok with that actually. It’s the prudent decision.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Here's two for today:

Cleveland (Plesac) +119 vs. San Diego (Clevinger)
Clevinger hasn't pitched in MLB since 2020, and is coming off TJ surgery and a knee sprain. Even in 2020, he only went 41 innings. Basically the guy last pitched reliably in MLB in 2019, and while he might recover and be okay, there's a lot of rust here. Rainout possible, so be aware of that.

Pittsburgh (B. Wilson) at Detroit (Pineda) - Over 8.5 -105
Wind blowing out. Rain possible, however. Both pitchers are homerun-prone.

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When handicapping stuff like a returning Clevinger bear in mind who the Padres new pitching coach is. The recently departed and long time Cleveland pitching coach. His genius is nothing short of legend. I wouldn’t be so quick to doubt Clevingers readiness unless you sense some rotation drought and desperation from the Padres. I’m not following so I don’t know

Lean Braves game 1, Rays -125, CWS-132.

I can see myself Giants 1st 5 over Dodgers at decent plus money. I still don’t think the Dodgers understand the dead ball or simply don’t care.

It’s hockey night so we will see if I can screw up some MLB enthusiasm

Panthers team goal over 3.5 -140 &/or Panthers reg -165

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Where is our other hockey expert San? Thank you for the Panthers play

Today we are on Cards -110 1st 5, Blue Jays -140 first 5, Astros under 8.5, Angels under 8, Yankees un 7.5, Mets game 2 under7, Orioles +150

No strong NBA opinions Celtics without Marcus Smart I should be on Bucks. Stay away and bet something after 1st quarter. Small play on under 216..

Jays Manoah. Forgot to post before the game but take them live.

Something like 12 straight or 13 straight.


Should get back into hockey tomorrow

Most ploppy angle is often the most successful. When you bet a streak you can win many times but lose only once.

Mil -250
Mil -1.5 -120

This reds team is dreadful.

If it loses I’ll take the L. If it wins I’ll keep it going.

BTW - if you bet the Vegas knights over 6 at home since when I originally posted it

19-12-5

The fellas def like SW Kim and D Ghim at the prices that were on offer.

Sung Kang is otherwise a low tier golfer by PGA standards but the two times he has played here he has finished top 10. +650 top 20 and +1700 top 10 feel value priced considering the history he has here.

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Originally Posted by Daly

The fellas def like SW Kim and D Ghim at the prices that were on offer.

Sung Kang is otherwise a low tier golfer by PGA standards but the two times he has played here he has finished top 10. +650 top 20 and +1700 top 10 feel value priced considering the history he has here.

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I don’t put a lot of stock in practice rounds but apparently Corey Conners rose from the grave walked across the water on the fourth hole and turned it into wine and then shot -7 over the first 7 holes before they got rained out. He was the guy I liked at the top of the board “most likely to win” to start with so I got a little more invested and took some FRL.

Colorado (A. Sanchez) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Under 11 -120

As I said…… this reds team stinks

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Originally Posted by Daly

As I said…… this reds team stinks

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Everyone and I mean EVERYONE in America is on the Reds train. It’s very unsettling to run with the herd.

Personally, I’ve been using Reds daily as a parlay piece (Milwaukee). I’d love to know why I don’t always go run line. The Reds Hunter Greene flame thrower phenom stories got in my head today. Then Reds took a quick 3-0 lead and I was starting to doubt the autobet

BTW, Ohtani was lights out today against the Red Sox. I get paid on pushes

+200 parlay



Yesterday we did bet Milwaukee RL vs Reds

+300 parlay
Didn’t watch a second of basketball. Didn’t have to. This is THE chalkiness parlay you’ve ever seen. Work of art



Go Avalanche!

Oh, special thanks to the Angels for sitting out Trout today. Load management is faggot but 2022 is real

I am absolutely respectful of the bets that are posted. Nevertheless, I have to ask what pray tell was the handicap on the Colorado under aside from the dead ball?

If you ran the bullpen, starting pitching and avg runs offense alone (independent of park) you were scared off this piece of shit.

Not every ball is dead.

Edit:
Nicky Pipes Memorial Rays bet
Tampa Bay Rays -125 for 1st 5 Innings.

Speaking of Florida this Panthers team is ridiculous fun

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Edit:
Nicky Pipes Memorial Rays bet
Tampa Bay Rays -125 for 1st 5 Innings. W

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Let’s see if Tampa Bay Lightning can deliver tomorrow

Miami -1 (took it as soon as it came out)
Suns -1

--I think both these series high likelihood of sweep or gentleman sweep.

In a slump right now, losing my Colorado under yesterday.

I have two picks for today:

Milwaukee (Lauer) -110 at Atlanta (J. Chavez)
Eric Lauer has had a great year thus far -- 1.93 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, and a 34-5 K/BB ratio. Atlanta is running out a bullpen game today, with 38-year-old Jesse Chavez taking the first 2-3 innings.

Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -119 at Cincinnati (Overton)
Connor Overton has looked good in the 2022 minors and in his single start this year in MLB, but let's face it... you're getting -119 against Cincinnati. Overton is also not likely to pitch long into the game, as even in the minors this year he was used as a starter-reliever hybrid.

For any of you with a BOL account they have Taiba at +700 for the running of the roses.

He will be the favorite when this goes off or damn close to it.

First baseball RHE bet of the year:

Milwaukee (Burnes) at Atlanta (Fried) - Under 23 R+H+E -110

Fried has a 3.00 ERA and 7.5 H/9 (hits allowed per 9 innings)
Burnes has a 1.93 ERA and a 4.75 H/9 (!!)

Fried has only allowed 3 runs and 10 hits over his past 19 innings, spanning 3 starts.

After Burns and Fried did their job, Perdomo is making this into a sweat in the bottom of the 8th.

1 run, two hits, men at 1st and 3rd with two outs. Demeritte up for the Braves. 19 RHE so far, so not much wiggle room.

Hopefully they get out of this and Kenley shuts 'em down in top-9 to end it.