*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Scenario 3 - High Rebound % Center

These are centers who have a solidified role on their team as the primary rebounder, and their rebounding is a critical part of the teams success.

What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- Extended minutes for these centers
- More contested shots are taken, resulting in a higher percentage of missed shots and more potential rebounds.
- Less fouls called by officials

This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. They have more opportunity to rebound
2. They are less likely to be in foul trouble throughout the game due to officiating changes in playoffs.

Who Are They?
1. Jonas Valanciunas (New Orleans)
2. Rudy Gobert (Utah)

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Scenario 4 - "The New Guys"

These are players whose play has trended in the positive direction throughout the season. They have stepped up when their team needed them and are now being rewarded with important playoff minutes

What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- Extended minutes for these players
- They are being allowed to be the #1 scoring options for short periods of time
- These guys haven't been in NBA arenas playing in playoff atmosphere. They are feeding off of it positively.

This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. More opportunity
2. Extended minutes

Who Are They?
1. Jordan Poole (Golden State)
2. Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia)

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Bonus - Live Scenarios

A specific situation that I've been looking for is a star player (#1 or #2 on their team) who is underperforming and will need to score points in order for his team to remain competitive in the game.
I'm specifically looking for
- Live points total is 80% or less of their season average
- A proven player who will continue to be given opportunity, even if he continues to miss shots
- Must be able to create his own shots
- His team must not have an incentive to slow down to pace of the game
- His team must be somewhat limited in offensive options

I found 2 live lines that qualified for this in the past 2 nights of NBA
1. Kris Middleton o13.5 points @-105 (April 20)
I picked this up at halftime when Kris had 3 points.
- He averages ~20 in regular season games.
- He's an elite NBA player, great shooter and can create his own shot

2. CJ McCollum o20.5 points @ -110 (April 19)
I picked this up, prior to the 4th quarter when CJ had 15 points.
- He averages ~22/game regular season
- The suns were pushing the pace, Pelicans needed to keep scoring in order to win
- He's an elite NBA player, great shooter and playmaker

Players to watch for this scenario in the coming days:
1. Demar Derozan - He's Chicago's go to scorer.
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Chris Paul (if Devin Booker is out)
4. Brandon Ingram / CJ McCollum

All that being said
I'm still a degenerate at heart and bet my entire Caesar's balance on a tennis match because I red a convincing write up on reddit.
Match was supposed to go off 7 hours ago, but its been delayed due to rain.
I hope that's good for the total games over..... o21.5 games Schwartzman vs Musetti.....

Saturday UFC Fight Night value, imo…
Philipe Lins +110
Preston Parsons -125
Sergey Khandozkho -118
Jordan Wright +170
Charles Jourdain -110
Maycee Barber -175
Claudio Puelles -110

Last minute:

Cleveland (E. Morgan) +165 at NY Yankees (Taillon)

Taillon generated just 3 swing-and-miss strikes out of 69 pitches in his last start.

Aaron judge has 1 HR in 13 games and of course he has to get his 2nd in my first fade of the Yankees.

2-0 New York, and Taillon missing bats this time. Uh oh.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Aaron judge has 1 HR in 13 games and of course he has to get his 2nd in my first fade of the Yankees.

2-0 New York, and Taillon missing bats this time. Uh oh.

---

No worries, that’s what left coast “late night get right” games are all about.

Dodgers/San Diego Padres over 4 -115 for 1st 5 Innings
Dodgers/San Diego Padres over 8 -117 for Game

I know you know but for the rest of you.

Urias is nothing special. He had a short rough spring. Drop velocity is most significant. His last outing was good but against the lol Reds (Reds are bottom MLB offense). Padres smash lefties. Urias will be on a short leash.

Padres Nick Martinez is 31 and fresh off working a sushi bar in Japan. He’s been knocked around this spring.

Both bullpens are great so I’d lean 1st 5.

I need to fade evenings in Dodger Stadium and the dead ball era. Unders are back Druff. The lines are cratering though. We might have been too slow.


I like Mariners too.

If the Dodgers game doesn’t work out we have an emergency parachute packed.

10:35pm Washington Capitals -½ -110 for 1st Period

Caps are playing the Arizona Coyotes who are an absolute joke. They are a minor league team staffed by minor league players now. They are building a 5000 seat arena on a college campus for next year.

The over 6.5 is a good look too and if you wanna get cute wait a few minutes and see if you can get a discount or a 6 live.

I shouldn’t need to say it but this all presumes you are Mitchell-galing each subsequent play.

Indians offense such garbage.

Judge just killed them tonight.

I took a live line on Tyrese Maxey over 15 points @ +135 at halftime.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sandwich

Saturday UFC Fight Night value, imo…
Philipe Lins +110 W
Preston Parsons -125 W
Sergey Khandozkho -118 W
Jordan Wright +170 L
Charles Jourdain -110 W
Maycee Barber -175 W
Claudio Puelles -110 W

---

Up 4.14 Units

Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)

---

Is Garrett Richards even a starting pitcher? -105 is the best I can find, but this looks tempting at even that price.

Can’t wait to fade Jonn Rahm in Mexico next week

*checks list of players*

Guess I’m betting Rahm this week.

For the record I’ve had the PGA second place finisher three weeks in a row.

Talk about kissing your sister

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

Personally I’m backing Burns/Horchel where I can get +1300 or better.

That said Clark/Tringale are +2900 in the real time exchange and are still hanging around at +7000 on some locals. If you like a value deal this is it.

---

Should have bet Tringale top 10 and left it alone……. User error here

By the time I checked my app the first game had already started (LOL 10 am starts PST), but I took the road favorites for the remaining 3 games.

0-1 halfway through the Miami game where they have a ~10 point lead. Meh.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

For the record I’ve had the PGA second place finisher three weeks in a row.

Talk about kissing your sister

---

Not that you need validation from the likes of me, but your eye for value is unparalleled. Picking good spots is all you can do.

Betting golf is like betting a roulette number, and the wheel spins once a week. Even if you find great value and have a couple % edge, it's no way to make a living. I treat golf betting money the same way I treat money I take to Vegas. Kiss it goodbye before I even bet it, enjoy the ride, and if there's anything left at the end it's a bonus.

Also the sick thing about golf bets that get close, when you have $1K on Cam Smith to win the Masters at 35-1 and it all goes wrong late on Sunday, there are moments where it feels like you lost $35K and not the $1K you bet. It's such a sick weird feeling.

New MLB strat, see when Angel Hernandez is home plate umpire, bet under.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)

---

:to



BTW, unders have been killing it. True story, the other day when I bet Cleveland +165 and lost, I was considering instead two unders, and both won. I talked myself out of both of them, and then noticed Cleveland and liked it, so I went that way. But if you just blindly bet unders for all games every day so far, you'd be up big. Batting averages are really in the toilet. Maybe the three-true-outcome (HR, walk, strikeout) approach to offense is finally backfiring.

I wouldn't read too much into it, though. Today's games overwhelmingly went over. I think the hitters are finally starting to warm up. Perhaps the short spring is what was messing things up for a bit.

Overall I'm off to a pretty nice start in MLB, and hope to keep it going.

On a side note, can anyone explain the BOL freeplay policy to me?

I loaded some new $ there because I sometimes like their MLB lines, and there was a pretty good deposit bonus, which presents as freeplay.

However, when I go to use the freeplay, I am extremely limited. Some games restrict me to $100, others $200. I can bet the rest with real money, so it's not an overall restriction on my account.

I cannot find anything about this in the terms. The freeplay isn't sticky (it disappears whether you win or lose the bet), so I'm almost done with it anyway. However, I'm curious what's going on here.

Not ignoring the BOL question. It’s been a long time since I deposited and I ignore the bonuses cause they hog tie you on withdrawals until the bonus are cleared. At least that’s an experience I remember

I wonder if bonuses are getting more lush as with the legal sites.

The waning days of the Golden Age of Sports Waging:
US gambling lobbying group the American Gaming Association has called on the US Department of Justice to crack down on offshore unlicensed iGaming companies as the American market continues to regulate online betting.

The call was made in letter form by AGA CEO Bill Miller, where he called for the DOJ to take action on sites like Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie, who offer services to states where online gambling hasn't been regulated. Miller is calling for those running unlicensed sites to be indicted and prosecuted, claiming they knowingly violate state and federal laws.

Lobbyists must die. Remember the PPA? That useless turd, John Pappas? Time flies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Not ignoring the BOL question. It’s been a long time since I deposited and I ignore the bonuses cause they hog tie you on withdrawals until the bonus are cleared. At least that’s an experience I remember

I wonder if bonuses are getting more lush as with the legal sites.

The waning days of the Golden Age of Sports Waging:
US gambling lobbying group the American Gaming Association has called on the US Department of Justice to crack down on offshore unlicensed iGaming companies as the American market continues to regulate online betting.

The call was made in letter form by AGA CEO Bill Miller, where he called for the DOJ to take action on sites like Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie, who offer services to states where online gambling hasn't been regulated. Miller is calling for those running unlicensed sites to be indicted and prosecuted, claiming they knowingly violate state and federal laws.

Lobbyists must die. Remember the PPA? That useless turd, John Pappas? Time flies.

---

I wonder how much $$ Pappas pocketed over the years in salary from that position. What a racket. That was the easiest way to win in poker.

I have no doubt that, at some point, the offshore books will face the wrath of the US government. It amazes me that Bodog/Bovada/Ignition has operated for 22 years, doing substantial business, and never been busted. To their credit, they've always been able to do fast cashouts, even in the dreadful early 2010s when it would take months to get money from anywhere else.

I didn't worry about the BOL rollover prior to withdrawal because I put in enough action there during MLB season to where that gets cleared fairly quickly.

NBA Prop Picks for tonight:

Celtics @ Nets
Jason Tatum o5.5 Assists -140
Marcus Smart o19.5 Points+Assists -115
Bruce Brown o1.5 Three Pointers Made +125

Raptors @ 76ers
Tobias Harris o7.5 Rebounds -150
Gary Trent o20.5 Points +100
James Harden o 31.5 Points + Assists +100
Tyrese Maxey o18.5 Points +100

Jazz @ Mavericks
Reggie Bullock o 2.5 Three Pointers Made -140

No hockey tonight so we will dabble in MLB.

Haven’t gotten a handle on the Dodgers yet. They’ve cost me some money this year and that surprises the Dodger Whisperer. We will figure it out.

Maybe I’ll find out about BOL’s reload bonus after tonight

The 3 team parlay is +289 (just treating myself to some degeneracy following a good day)

Did a small bet on the Tribe and Bieber at +100

Velo still down, but results havent been. Lorenzen inspires little confidence on the other side. Angels have been mashing but i'll take that price.

The announcers were talking about the dead ball in Dodger stadium tonight. The look on players faces like Bellinger when the ball died in the outfield.

The 2022 MLB Baseball Has Higher Drag. Baseball Prospectus
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...l-higher-drag/

I really need to stop with the totals.

Aight Simpdog

I know you parked all your dough in the safe haven of Bitcoin. I can’t be counted on to bail you out forever but I can this once

+198 parlay
Blues +150 for Game Colorado gives zero fucks about this game
Wild -520 for Game

Ottawa -140/Minny is another +100 parlay. Of course, Minny PL or alt PL is approved depending on your financial circumstance.

Is everyone around you thinking the Celtics are winning it all?

Sorry too busy celebrating the Raptors win.

Vegas in a must win tonight. -110
Senators -145
Rangers -115

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by simpdog

Is everyone around you thinking the Celtics are winning it all?

---

Few things you can consistently count on in life. Kyrie being a knucklehead is one of them. Ship him back to LeBron

So no such thing as a lock and all of that….

W Clark is a horse for corse and recent form darling this week and has been beat down to +3500 in Mexico. He’s more or less the 7th favorite to win this week.

Brian Stuard is like playing golf with your dad. Hits every single drive right down the middle…… but is short of the rest of the group by 50 yards. This course has extremely wide fairways and all the bombers are the ones who are touted this week. Stuard can’t catch a bid and is on sale for +17500 which is near the bottom.

Time to bet this was at the open at -140 and it’s now up to -200. That said the numbers and form suggest if they played this 100 times Clark would beat Stuard more than 66 times.

As I mentioned in the MLB thread, the Pirates are better than expected thus far.

Today they send up Dillon Peters, who has allowed just 1 hit and zero runs in 10 1/3 innings, all in relief. He is replacing Bryce Wilson, who hasn't been good this year, and is suddenly unavailable.

The Brewers send up Aaron Ashby, who is talented and may be a great pitcher in the near future, but he has struggled in the early goings, holding a 1.765 WHIP.

I like the dog line here. Both teams hit well yesterday, but the Brewers won 12-8.

Pittsburgh +155 (Peters) vs. Milwaukee (Ashby)

UFC Saturday Fight Night early bets...

Carlos Candelario +200
Grant Dawson -180
Marlon "Chito" Vera +120

I have my eye on three others, Gina Mazany (favorite), Tristan Connelly (underdog) and Andrei Arlovski (favorite), but I'll wait for the weigh ins and face-offs tomorrow to pull the trigger depending on how they look and the post-weigh in lines.

a few draft hunches mixed with some degen dart throws.

Gardner 1st CB -140
Cine 2nd S +175
Ridder 1st qb +1000 and 2nd qb +400
Willis 1st qb, Ridder 2nd +600
J Williams o11.5 +120
J Johnson II o7.5 -175
R McCreary u47.5 -115

Jays -135ish. LOL my Canadian facing site has -160.

Team is a perfect 3-0 this year with Manoah on the mound. Going back to last year Jays have won 11 straight with him on the mount.

Game is at 3:07 Eastern, so early enough we can still hit the night time GA meeting if we lose.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gut

a few draft hunches mixed with some degen dart throws.

Gardner 1st CB -140
Cine 2nd S +175
Ridder 1st qb +1000 and 2nd qb +400
Willis 1st qb, Ridder 2nd +600
J Williams o11.5 +120
J Johnson II o7.5 -175
R McCreary u47.5 -115

---

I’ve seen sharp action today on…..

Stingley U7.5 (I think he’s going 3 in fact)
Gardner U5.5
London U11.5
Davis U14.5 (every mock in the world has him going to the Ravens)
Thibodeaux O4.5

St Louis (D. Hudson) vs Arizona (Castellanos) - Under 7.5 -116

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gut

a few draft hunches mixed with some degen dart throws.

Gardner 1st CB -140
Cine 2nd S +175
Ridder 1st qb +1000 and 2nd qb +400
Willis 1st qb, Ridder 2nd +600
J Williams o11.5 +120
J Johnson II o7.5 -175
R McCreary u47.5 -115

---

I’ve seen sharp action today on…..

Stingley U7.5 (I think he’s going 3 in fact)
Gardner U5.5
London U11.5
Davis U14.5 (every mock in the world has him going to the Ravens)
Thibodeaux O4.5

---

Lol - 5-0

:entertained