Should have been on over 1.5 first period.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Won the Draisaitl over 3.5 shots but lost the other two. Tomorrow is another day.
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Should have been on over 1.5 first period.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Won the Draisaitl over 3.5 shots but lost the other two. Tomorrow is another day.
Count me in the fade group but I got matchups vs the the top 10 iron in the -130s. It’s all -180’s now which is madness.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
Bryson opened in the 1400’s and was hammered down into the 700-800 range. Last time that happened he was a bad chip or 7 playoff holes away from cashing.
I won’t be making a habit of fading Burns this year - I suspect I’ll be backing him before long.
I understand this is past posting, so shame on me, but last night I again perused the 2nd half line of the late NBA games at halftime, and again one line really jumped out. The 2nd half total of the Miami-Portland game was 104.5, which seemed real low given the principals involved. So I bet the over and it cashed by 14 points.
I think the algorithms see that both teams were playing a bunch of G Leaguers, and assumed bad offense and adjusted the lines accordingly. But when there is no defense, even G Leaguers can rain down open 3's, which is basically what happened.
Do live algos account for lineups? I have never thought about that. I have assumed not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I have preached NHL every year. At this point your soul has already been saved or you are condemned to poverty - it’s too late for most.
Home Favorites Off a Win Vs Opponent Off a Loss. Rich kids call this HFOWVOOL. Straight money for I don’t know how long.
Favorites and overs. Go ahead and try to get cute.
You saw my card above. That’s not genius. Some find quilting to be a rewarding past time. Consider that.
Probably not and maybe that is where there could be value. When both teams are playing G Leaguers maybe it is hurting the defense more than the books are accounting for?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarDo live algos account for lineups? I have never thought about that. I have assumed not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I should pursue this if I have the time. I’m interested. Good post.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamProbably not and maybe that is where there could be value. When both teams are playing G Leaguers maybe it is hurting the defense more than the books are accounting for?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Well, could just be positive variance. And even if it is a real thing could be over in a couple weeks when the omicron wave subsides. But if you have a lot of free time around midnight your time might be worth a look.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI should pursue this if I have the time. I’m interested. Good post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Could also be something in the algo thats not accounting that these g leaguers arent coming in cold to these games. Theyve had a lot of playing time recently so they are going to be hitting more shots. Like when a game is a blowout in past and both teams deep bench are on court under is more likely because they haven’t had much playing time, but now a lot of these guys are playing every day. It would make sense that the live algo would take into account the current players and their previous average points in the past but now those previous points aren’t giving the full picture.
Also love and respect to the hockey god posters on here. Keep doing what you’re doing!
I've been following some of the hockey banter here (thanks Sanlmar and Simpdog), but I've got a couple of Noob questions before I start betting the big bucks here....
Shouldn't the 1st Period Over daily Win/Loss records be compared to the price we're being asked to lay for each bet?
And, same question for HFOWVOOL... 75% win is great, but what's the unit win % as compared to the price we're laying for betting every HFOWVOOL?
Surprisingly Football has gone well for 3-4 months now, No football until sat so I will dip my toe in the NBA. Detroit is playing b2b road games, Yesterday det was blown out, I look for them to be ice cold today, Taking Memphis -4 for 1stQ
Just should of not played this fucking tournament. What a sloppy ass day out there. You tell me Burns wold be bogey free… I’d be stoked. One goddam birdie and par on every single Par 5. Bad irons and putting. Pretty mind boggling tbh.
As expected Detroit came out cold and obv they are awful anyhow. We getem again blow out for a 1stQ bet 32-18. I could get use to 1stQ bets, Get the money early and relax for the night, CheersQuote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandwich
75% implied prob is -300. The most you see in a hockey game on a given night is -225. There are other betting options like Regulation (excludes OT) and spread betting (puck lines). So straight ML is not the entire story.
But yeah, of course you convert juice to prob in 1P’s too.
Like a couple years ago with 1P’s presently we are betting and benefitting thematically. The return from Covid break can’t be modeled. The books can’t adjust quick enough and perhaps don’t care with all that’s going on in football and basketball.
Fuses must be blowing and lights dimming as they try to keep up with tanking, Covid and injuries in NFL. Leave NHL alone. The NHL handle won’t hurt them
We have had recent situations where teams are using 4th string goalies cause the #1 & #2’s are on a ventilator. Then the primary goalies can’t practice all the while and are thrown into a game.
Personally, I approach hockey like baseball. That’s not unique but I like that aspect. Goalie is the pitcher. There are plenty of stats just like baseball.
I was interested in a couple NFL games. I personally believe the NFL is the most efficient market in the world so I sure as shit ain’t betting a single game spread. I wanted a teaser or two but my offshore is too savvy to offer parlays or teasers yet. Now it’s Thursday night so maybe they are taking action. I’ll look later.
Discouraging NFL action is perhaps the nicest thing they could do for me.
Interesting times.
CLV Society homie. So ‘90’s
The Coyotes woman announcer reminds me of a stroke victim.
I’m not a nice person.
PM me your book if you dont mind. I am just curious. I am using a generic skin that just follows one of the sharp offshore books (I dont know which one, doesn't even really matter), and they offer teasers, parlays, etc. the second the lines are available. The only thing they dont offer that a major book would are ML on big spreads. Although I am guessing this is some setting the bookie/operator set up himself, to minimize exposure to someone hitting a jackpot by parlaying a bunch of big underdogs and hitting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Saturday's game between the Vancouver Canucks and Ottawa Senators - scheduled to take place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver - is expected to be postponed due to capacity limits
Not due to players/covid. Due to no fans = $$$$.
No idea how the NHL will catch up on all these games......soon Canadian teams will need to start playing home games in the US.
If I had to watch every Coyotes game, i'd stroke out also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
There are gonna be day games galore. Exhausting back to back to backs. That is where the opportunity lies because in a heads up mathletics contest where games are played in ideal conditions we prolly lose. Embrace the chaos. We are quicker to adapt and it’s exploitable.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
The Shesterkin late scratch (Ro Ro) was utter sketchy bullshit though. I expect more from the NHL than the other leagues. I didn’t touch the game but I’d be furious if I took the Rangers. No need for waiting until everyone is seated with a beer and popcorn.
Shotgun all Canes options and derivatives. It’s too pure. I’m obviously scared.
Saturday bonanza.
So speaking of light regulation, NY now has legalized sports wagering as of the other day. 51% tax on revenue. I believe Penn was 34% and NJ (Chris Christie) 14% for quick comps.
It is aledged that books will offer 110 lines. I just don’t understand.
I also heard that promotions are not allowed by the state. Now that is interesting. How will NJ respond. There’s gonna be war between the states.
PA/Jersey/NY is the mother lode in the US and if they are tearing each other apart certainly shared player pools can’t be far behind.
We need JeffDime to weigh in here.
In the meantime, I think I got one good year in me before my state approves sports wagering. I will have lived thru the poker boom and the golden age of sports wagering. What’s next?
Back on Cavs -5.5
Wiz/Bulls O224.5
Cavs/Blazers O215.5
Hawks/Lakers O230.5
YOLO
Co-signed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Except I got Cavs -6 because I slept on it too long.
That is just sides and totals. The books hold on all the parlays, teasers, futures, props, etc. is WAY higher. In RJ Bells Dream Preview Podcast one of the guys (named Steve Fezzik who won the SuperContest 2 times) who is a professional sports bettor says despite the fact that pretty much all the pros are beating the Nevada sports books, the books themselves are actually doing very well on account of the recreational players making massive -EV bets much worse than -110. And my understanding is the regulated East Coast books offer even worse odds on that kind of stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Hurricanes 6-3Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Reg/ML/PL all Winners
Gotta be a reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I got the best price of you guys. Shouldn’t matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffCo-signed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Except I got Cavs -6 because I slept on it too long.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarGotta be a reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I got the best price of you guys. Shouldn’t matter.
God we missed every free throw, got out scored on second chance points like 20-4, and were amazingly lethargic. Can’t believe we won that bet. Thought that was going down. God bless Cedi Osman for coming back tonight. I was ready to pay for his ticket back to Istanbul last year, and he’s been very good this year.
San
The RJ bell dream preview is handicapping nfl, so you basically just missed the entire season, although they will do some playoff pods too.
But yeah, if you want to listen to a podcast that discusses high level nfl handicapping for strictly betting purposes, it is a solid listen.
I sheeped you guys on Cavs -6, so went 3-1, although missing the Cavs under by 0.5 pts hurt.
I didn’t watch the game at all and just looked at the box score, but somehow it seemed the Cavs had the ball the last 50 seconds and only took one shot. The math doesn’t really work out on that. But I am guessing the scoreboard keeper was just tying to go home and the clock was running, and no one but I’ve bettors really cares.
You got really unlucky at the end. With like a minute left, Mobley had ball under hoop, fed Allen, and he missed a bunny or fumbled it and then both teams did the we are too cool to shoot in double digit game and dribbled out the clock thing for last two possessions. I immediately looked at your other two bets and was relieved you had two good ones. You should have had clean sweep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Glad I wasn't watching, sounds like I definitely would have gotten my feathers rustled. Although I remember seeing there was something like 10 points scored within a 15 second span with 2 minutes left in the game just to get it to that point, so without that it isn't even close to begin with.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou got really unlucky at the end. With like a minute left, Mobley had ball under hoop, fed Allen, and he missed a bunny or fumbled it and then both teams did the we are too cool to shoot in double digit game and dribbled out the clock thing for last two possessions. I immediately looked at your other two bets and was relieved you had two good ones. You should have had clean sweep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Maybe it is just positive variance, but I have been targeting overs in the late games with all these G League lineups and it seems to be doing well. Although I wasn't watching last night, I have watched a lot of theses games, and it seems what happens is a lot of these guys who aren't necessarily NBA talent can still shoot 3's very well; so they go up against poor defenses (which is understandable because a lot of patchwork lineups with players who weren't even on the team 2 weeks ago), and they take and make a lot of open 3's. I remember one Miami-Portland game in particular where Miami lineup was almost completely non NBA talent, but they lit up Portland at the 3 point line and game went comfortable over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamGlad I wasn't watching, sounds like I definitely would have gotten my feathers rustled. Although I remember seeing there was something like 10 points scored within a 15 second span with 2 minutes left in the game just to get it to that point, so without that it isn't even close to begin with.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Maybe it is just positive variance, but I have been targeting overs in the late games with all these G League lineups and it seems to be doing well. Although I wasn't watching last night, I have watched a lot of theses games, and it seems what happens is a lot of these guys who aren't necessarily NBA talent can still shoot 3's very well; so they go up against poor defenses (which is understandable because a lot of patchwork lineups with players who weren't even on the team 2 weeks ago), and they take and make a lot of open 3's. I remember one Miami-Portland game in particular where Miami lineup was almost completely non NBA talent, but they lit up Portland at the 3 point line and game went comfortable over.
Verm - we are due your NFL picks for today.
I actually have nothing on today's games. I probably will randomly bet something last minute like I often do, but as of yet nothing. Really hard to gauge motivation to win (which is a very important component this week) for all 4 teams today. If you have any insight I would love to hear some.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Verm - we are due your NFL picks for today.
For example, does anyone think Philly has any motivation to win (or lose) to get a specific matchup in round 1? Tampa/Dallas/Az all have looked vulnerable in the last few weeks, and I dont see why Philly would be trying to avoid any of these teams.
So it’s DK, Fanduel & Caesars. FD & DK maybe $100 bucks for existing accounts and I’m not sure of that yet. But Caesars is really offering up to $3300 in free bets. I am still not sure if these will be treated as site credits (100% equity) or traditional free bets (50% equity). Trying to sort everything out. I wonder if FD and/or DK will budge with what Caesars is offering.
https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/st...954203648?s=20
https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/st...099755522?s=20
It’s apparent DK & FD don’t want to give away play to those of us who have been betting in Jersey for years now. I can’t say I blame them. We are betting anyways. But at least Ceasers is enticing bettors to their platform even if they been using the Jersey app.
if you win your free bet do you get a free tax form with it?
Luckily the bettors aren’t paying the 51% Simp. Be tough to pay since 99% are losing bettors.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
It’s apparent DK & FD don’t want to give away play to those of us who have been betting in Jersey for years now. I can’t say I blame them. We are betting anyways. But at least Ceasers is enticing bettors to their platform even if they been using the Jersey app.
There is no flipping way the 51% vs 14% difference will be transparent to the customer. The lines are going to differ.
I just can’t do the math in my head. How can NY offer 110 lines? I’m serious. I don’t understand.
-140 teasers? I can’t wait for the reports
Extremely interesting though.
I need some help today. I got nothing so far.