My 'favorite' pick for today: Cubs -160
My 'underdog' pick for today: Reds +240
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My 'favorite' pick for today: Cubs -160
My 'underdog' pick for today: Reds +240
Have some action on Cubs...let's go PLOL!
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Slumping a bit recently.
If this continues, I may shut it down until early season NBA, for the most part.
In the meantime...
Toronto (Clippard) at Seattle (F. Hernandez) - Under 9 -115
NOTE: Toronto is doing a bullpen game.
My b
BOL has live batter props for Dodgers 10 Brewers 2 blowout
Position players are likely to come in for Brewers. First game of series, etc etc
Perez likely.
Just throw over the plate and let the defense pick it up. 1-3 pitches is the prop.
It’s a choice spot.
Good luck
I’m gonna get shut off but fuck em
It just dawned on me.
Win the rest bets.
8/3/2018 12:18:16 AM
DESCRIPTION:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS [BATTER PROPS] WIN THE REST - (DODGERS 17 : BREWERS 5) DODGERS +190
Are you kidding me? +190 and they are tossing taters
21-5
Stealing
The commissioner may stop this game. Cause integrity
How did you get +190 on that?
Did Milwaukee had men on base or something?
Anyway, I got screwed pretty hard today.
Under 9.
2-2 after 6.
4-2 after 7 1/2.
Then 1 in the bottom of the 8th and 3 in the 9th, and it's game over for me. Final score, 7-3.
:gay3
I think the market is dead wrong on Ohio State week 1. If it hits 34.5 I’m
Jumping in. I think they are going to fucking hammer Oregon State
Verlander -110 @ Todgers
Dodgers too tired from running around the bases yesterday.
No, I am pretty sure I fired at the end of the 7th. On news of position player Perez coming in. He has been in these spots before.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Win the Rest is a 3 way bet and typically an idiotic offering.
Assume the Dodgers are winning in a typical fashion, you might see:
Dodgers +150
Tie -120
Brewers -130
I am pulling these sample numbers as best as I can as I usually give only a cursory view. But I’m in the neighborhood.
The team leading is offered as the dog almost automatically. You can speculate about the reasoning. The Dodgers +190 was higher than usual and that thankfully triggered the thought. The higher the difference in the score? IDK
In these blowouts I tune in the losing team on the MLB package. The announcers start speculating in an informed way about their bullpen and their coach’s thinking. Who might serve the taters next inning? Has he pitched before in college etc. The home team announcers are jerking each other off and not helpful.
As I posted, Perez was coming in per Brewers announcers. He is gonna loft taters over the plate to Muncy and Puig or whoever. Dodgers have Baez warming. Dodgers actually trying to pitch so win the rest was a plus plus spot.
As written before, I have been betting 1-3 pitches as a way to exploit these situations. It’s a +EV spot but variance with foul balls, exists of course. In last night’s game, the Brewers put out an amateur knuckleballer in the next (9th inning) and he couldn’t control it as expected. My enthusiasm got the best of me.
Fortunately, the guys in the little grass huts caught on and shut the prop off after first batter and that limited my mistake.
Interestingly, the BOL live page posts winning batter props as they happen in a clever marketing ploy. I could see folks were catching on
The Win the Rest started to get hammered too in the 8th. You could see it fall a nickel a minute. I was already on it
Max bet for Win the Rest was $1050 and the batter prop was $250. I have been mining these position player spots and despite being a nit ordinarily I now felt confident enough to get it in good and let it play out.
I listen to wagering shows including VSIN and everyone talks about the crazy position player trend. VSIN is a huge believer in exploiting the new trend in “in game” wagering and they rightfully believe this is where the growth lies. Yet they and others have never discussed strategies to exploit.
There was another blowout yesterday. I wonder what happened there. I only made time for Dodgers. You know why. Wink
Altuve & Correia out. Astros offense slumping.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
The under total 7.5 -115 seems like the way to go. It’s an obvious play and I am reticent but it was 7 last night.
It’s a great World Series redux and another Dodgers test so I am interested in the game and may fire for the sweat.
The Dodgers prospect, Joseph Goebbels, has a live arm but should stick to Nazi propaganda like FPS.
Love Indians over Angels ML and RL.
I am fully aware of Clevenger.
Oddly and probably a good sign, the game isn’t offered. Somethings up.
Whatever money is on Angels is just love for a dying patient.
Lineups just came out. It should be avail
Here we go......tail at your own risk....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ruh-roh.
And the sign said "Long-haired freaky people need not apply"Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ruh-roh.
Starting at 5:10 PDT
San Francisco (A. Suarez) at Arizona (Buchholz) - Under 8.5 -115
How come you don't pick sides anymore? Totals are no fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They're especially no fun when I'm not effortlessly winning them anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assHow come you don't pick sides anymore? Totals are no fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
AZ hung a high five on Suarez in the first.
Now I have to just hope that it becomes one of these games where both sides lose motivation to play when one jumps out to a big lead, and barely any runs score going forward.
But I'm probably fucked.
I stopped picking sides because I was just spinning my wheels with them. My edge was coming from totals, but recently I have been losing them, so like I did with the NBA in the mid-late season, I may just shut down.
I bet I'll kick ass with the unders in the NBA again this year in the early and early/mid season, and struggle after that.
Maybe the right strategy is just to fade myself once I get to the midpoint of the season!
Todd,
As we have talked about at times in the past it’s hard to beat MLB. It’s damn near impossible to do it over a whole 162. I seem to recall you tailing off towards the end of last season as well. Do you have notes on last year to compare to this years results?
Reason why I ask is the few guys that I know who do bet MLB tend to taper off after the All Star Break. Sport becomes even more difficult to beat. Curious as to your thoughts.