*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

I like to ramble, most people like picks

Teaser
110 Dallas Cowboys -½
102 Indianapolis Colts -2

I’m gambling Wentz doesn’t have the Rona. It’s not the brightest idea to bet NFL preflop but this looked pretty and I lack the discipline to have nothing on it

I bet a guy that I’d chop off my little finger if the Colts are in the Super Bowl. I need suggestions for what to do with my pinky for these last few weeks. So I end up with nine fingers but I’m gonna hedge and make some money.

Calgary Chicago is the next in our nightly shit show discussion. Calgary has Vladar (ex Bruin - like him) and Chicago has Delia who got fucking destroyed Saturday. This bum is the Hawks only choice while they wait for Covid to release it’s death grip on their real goalies. Yup, I had it in a teaser. (It’s up to the Patriots ML)

I don’t have this Calgary thing offered to me but if you have some retard legal book I’d be working up some drool whilst I bet a Calgary Puckline up to -155. I have no idea what’s out there.

I don't like laying double digits in the NFL but as i enjoyed my coffee this morning going through the games I realized betting NE is like stealing from the bank without risk of being arrested

Lol Antonio brown

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Originally Posted by 4BET

I don't like laying double digits in the NFL but as i enjoyed my coffee this morning going through the games I realized betting NE is like stealing from the bank without risk of being arrested

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Very happy for your winning bet. This revelation would be far more useful to share with everyone before the game is 41-3.

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Originally Posted by JeffDime

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4BET

I don't like laying double digits in the NFL but as i enjoyed my coffee this morning going through the games I realized betting NE is like stealing from the bank without risk of being arrested

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Very happy for your winning bet. This revelation would be far more useful to share with everyone before the game is 41-3.

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Understood, Was gonna post but worried about jinxing myself.lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JeffDime

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4BET

I don't like laying double digits in the NFL but as i enjoyed my coffee this morning going through the games I realized betting NE is like stealing from the bank without risk of being arrested

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Very happy for your winning bet. This revelation would be far more useful to share with everyone before the game is 41-3.

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I will post next pick.Ticket Number:xxxxxxxxxx
Accepted Date: 01/02/22 08:14 GMT-5
Amount:
$2,300.00
Status:
Pending
To win:
$2,000.00
Type:
Spread/Run Line
Description:
Football - NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots - Spread | 118 New England Patriots -16½ -115 For Game | 01/02/2022 | 01:00:00 PM (EST) | Pending

icket Number:xxxxxxxxxx
Accepted Date: 01/02/22 08:47 GMT-5
Amount:
$2,875.00
Status:
Pending
To win:
$2,500.00
Type:
Spread/Run Line
Description:
Football - NFL - Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys - Spread | 110 Dallas Cowboys -6½ -115 For Game | 01/02/2022 | 04:25:00

I have a Tampa U12 season bet and a KC U12.5 season bet. For a while really looking like both Bengals and Jets were gonna win. Guess I should be happy going 1-1. We move on.

Cowboy game O52.5
Charger game O45.5
Texans +12.5 (made this bet a while ago and obviously didn't exactly get CLV)
Carolina ML +230
Lions +7

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I’m back on NHL. Let me know if you look here any more

1P overs
Tuesday 3-0
Wednesday 4-2
Thursday 5-2
Friday 2-2
Saturday 7-2

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Sunday 5-1 with one to go


Let 25-30 more roll off before committing to the program. Lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4BET

icket Number:xxxxxxxxxx
Accepted Date: 01/02/22 08:47 GMT-5
Amount:
$2,875.00
Status:
Pending
To win:
$2,500.00
Type:
Spread/Run Line
Description:
Football - NFL - Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys - Spread | 110 Dallas Cowboys -6½ -115 For Game | 01/02/2022 | 04:25:00

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:anditsgone. WTF Dallas looks like the bums from late nov

Minnesota team total O14 -120.

I understand it is a bad QB and cold and the offense is going to suffer. But I think the playmakers (Cook, Jefferson) can make enough magic happen on their own to get Minn to 14 against a porous Green Bay D.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Calgary Chicago is the next in our nightly shit show discussion. Calgary has Vladar (ex Bruin - like him) and Chicago has Delia who got fucking destroyed Saturday. This bum is the Hawks only choice while they wait for Covid to release it’s death grip on their real goalies. Yup, I had it in a teaser. (It’s up to the Patriots ML)

I don’t have this Calgary thing offered to me but if you have some retard legal book I’d be working up some drool whilst I bet a Calgary Puckline up to -155. I have no idea what’s out there.

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Calgary 5-1



Obviously, my handicap was wildly different from what the books offered. I am quite astonishing sometimes. Until the puck dropped I wondered what in the hell people were betting when they put money on Chicago. God bless them, every one.

Overnight shit show (Covid/No goalies etc) handicapping won’t be available to you tonight so don’t wait up for me. We are 3-0. There is only one NHL game tomorrow.

Oh btw Simp, 1P update. Ridiculous run.
Sunday 6-1 overs

My NFL teaser was crap and that’s fine, I suppose. Cowboys and Colts both shit the bed. Neither was competitive.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

When we see 2’s? Wink

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When? How about today?

The NHL stimulus checks have been cancelled.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

When we see 2’s? Wink

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When? How about today?

The NHL stimulus checks have been cancelled.

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Are you on the naughty list? Just teasing you......see what I did there?

over 1.5 -160 is alive and well here.

McDavid over 3.5 shots -120 is also appealing.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

When? How about today?

The NHL stimulus checks have been cancelled.

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Are you on the naughty list? Just teasing you......see what I did there?

over 1.5 -160 is alive and well here.

McDavid over 3.5 shots -120 is also appealing.

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2 +125 wait til puck drop was our old stratagem.

I wonder if part of the Oilers problem is that other teams are learning how to play McDavid. It’s just a rube’s take.

Mika Zibanejad goal +160 mighty tasty to me.

A night off wouldn’t hurt either.

I remember your book was slower to react to 1P’s during the other run. Euro type book. I spent many mornings hatin’ on your good fortune back then.

The sports books gotta start flexing on the league to announce goalies earlier or they gotta listing goalies like baseball pitchers.

This ain’t 2020 for crying out loud.


Ok honesty in wagering time on PFA. I did a Druff Degen injury/suspension play….. and I teased NBA ….. at the same time.

Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game

Rockets might just give up and tonight and get smoked by 20. Warriors cause I’m public as fuck and prone to self harm. (I know zero about other NBA teams and don’t care enough to learn).

Feelin’ some perverse pride tbh. 5 Guys wager with shake

Nugent Hopkins is out which is why I like McDavid at 3.5 shots. More shots for Connor + Leon on the PP.

Smith is hurt for Edmonton (again) so Koskinen will likely be the starter. Shersterkin played yesterday so I would think it has to be Georgiev.

Super busy with work today, but Doug just semi-locked us down for 3 weeks. No kids hockey = should be more time for looking at games, or at least following along with your picks.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Nugent Hopkins is out which is why I like McDavid at 3.5 shots. More shots for Connor + Leon on the PP.

Smith is hurt for Edmonton (again) so Koskinen will likely be the starter. Shersterkin played yesterday so I would think it has to be Georgiev.

Super busy with work today, but Doug just semi-locked us down for 3 weeks. No kids hockey = should be more time for looking at games, or at least following along with your picks.

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Appreciate that, on it.

Quick story. I just bought a iPhone 13 Max Pro at Verizon. So I’m chatting with the clerk while he is swapping our phones. He turned out to be a regional mgr with some tenure there.

I asked him in the vein of the Cobblers Son Has No Shoes, “do your kids have phones?”

He said, “I wish they didn’t”. He had a girl six who had no phone and a boy 12 who does only cause he did AAU basketball. Needed to be picked up and he had to check in with dad etc.

He said phone was never an issue with the boy. He’d do basketball practice then shoot hoops outside til he couldn’t see any more. He used to make himself run laps if he made a mistake like his coach did at practice. But then Covid hit and stuff got suspended. He started with the phone and it’s never quite been the same.

I offered that it was that age with the hormones and stuff but dad will never know. I don’t envy you guys. I got lucky.

Alright. You’ve been waiting up for the Overnight Shit Show. My ambition to spin my usual nonsense is not what it usually is.

Quick recap

Simp cashed his McDavid SOG prop. It was over by the end of the 2nd period basically. Covered for my losing prop.

My stupid NBA teaser cashed pretty easy. Jimmy Butler wrecking his ankle allowed Warriors to coast the second leg else I might have had to sweat that one or worse yet, actually watch the NBA. No 5 Guys restaurant will be safe tomorrow.

Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game


We have the Avalanche playing the Blackhawks tomorrow. We have been fading Blackhawks cause their two goalies were out with the Ro Ro. They were using taxi squad rejects and not too successfully at that. Well, one of the good goalies is back. What we have noticed after the Covid layoff recently is goalies have been awful on their return. No practice. Their vision and angles aren’t right. Fleury hasn’t been any prize this year anyway for the Blackhawks. So that’s it. You expected some fancy maths?

33 Colorado Avalanche -1½ +110 for Game

I’m taking Kansas vs LSU in some bowl game whilst we are on the subject of Covid and sports

From The Athletic

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BATON ROUGE, La. — Life in 2022 is preparing oneself for the reality of an LSU bowl game with walk-on quarterbacks and wildcat offenses and fourth-string cornerbacks. It’s accepting an already bizarre 6-6 season is only getting weirder with just four 2021 staff members on the trip to coach the Tigers in Tuesday’s Texas Bowl. It’s realizing LSU might have so few scholarship players available that the game would have been canceled if it were using 2020 COVID rules.

This Texas Bowl game against Kansas State is a tricky one to examine, because there’s nothing in it we’ve seen much of. LSU’s head coach is an interim — its offensive line coach Brad Davis — and the roster has been depleted beyond belief due to transfers, opt-outs, COVID and academic issues.

The Tigers have just 39 available scholarship players, by The Athletic’s count, and no scholarship quarterbacks. Its secondary has just one real starter available. The two best defensive players — linebacker Damone Clark and defensive tackle Neil Farrell — opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. All of this in a game against a well-rounded Kansas State team that would have been favored even before the absences.

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Kansas State -7 -115
It’s not the best number. It was -3. You want CLV or money? It’s a lifestyle decision.

The kids get paid whether they win or lose so let’s have some fun at their expense. LSU is gonna get creative and fun with their athletes. Sounds like a good time.

It’s the kind of mess that is on brand for the Nightly Shit Show.

Bricked the fucking Powerball. So unlucky.

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Originally Posted by JeffDime

Bricked the fucking Powerball. So unlucky.

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It's a tradition for us to get scratch tickets in our stockings at Christmas. Nothing feels worse than bricking a $10 holiday bundle where you spend about half an hour scratching all the tickets.

Teaching the kids early that scratch tickets are -EV

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Alright. You’ve been waiting up for the Overnight Shit Show. My ambition to spin my usual nonsense is not what it usually is.

Quick recap

Simp cashed his McDavid SOG prop. It was over by the end of the 2nd period basically. Covered for my losing prop.

My stupid NBA teaser cashed pretty easy. Jimmy Butler wrecking his ankle allowed Warriors to coast the second leg else I might have had to sweat that one or worse yet, actually watch the NBA. No 5 Guys restaurant will be safe tomorrow.

Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game

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I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Alright. You’ve been waiting up for the Overnight Shit Show. My ambition to spin my usual nonsense is not what it usually is.

Quick recap

Simp cashed his McDavid SOG prop. It was over by the end of the 2nd period basically. Covered for my losing prop.

My stupid NBA teaser cashed pretty easy. Jimmy Butler wrecking his ankle allowed Warriors to coast the second leg else I might have had to sweat that one or worse yet, actually watch the NBA. No 5 Guys restaurant will be safe tomorrow.

Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game

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I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.

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You’re spoiling a good story. Ok yeah, I was aware and cause Fortune Favors the Brave I caught a nice bonus middle.




Nonsense aside, you make an interesting point about porous defense.

I recall a recent Warriors game I was involved in where Warriors closed out the half with like 38. Team total live was 99.5. They finished around 81. So yeah, the live algo might be especially poor with Warriors. I’ll try to keep an eye out.

I’m not an NBA guy but I have been drawn to Warriors. I wrote it off as just me being entry level Joe Public but maybe the squirrelly lines are the attraction

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.

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You’re spoiling a good story. Ok yeah, I was aware and cause Fortune Favors the Brave I caught a nice bonus middle.




Nonsense aside, you make an interesting point about porous defense.

I recall a recent Warriors game I was involved in where Warriors closed out the half with like 38. Team total live was 99.5. They finished around 81. So yeah, the live algo might be especially poor with Warriors. I’ll try to keep an eye out.

I’m not an NBA guy but I have been drawn to Warriors. I wrote it off as just me being entry level Joe Public but maybe the squirrelly lines are the attraction

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I wonder if it is less about the Warriors per se, and more about no humans monitoring the algorithms in these late West Coast games, so not adjusting when the algorithm spits out a number that makes no sense in context.

Generally, teasing NBA has never appealed to me at all. My intuition has always been that teasing 6 points in an NFL game is worth WAY more than 4 in NBA. And I have never read or heard anything to suggest that there is ever a situation where an NBA teaser is close to +EV, unlike NFL.

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Originally Posted by Kalam

I wonder if it is less about the Warriors per se, and more about no humans monitoring the algorithms in these late West Coast games, so not adjusting when the algorithm spits out a number that makes no sense in context.

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I haven’t thought about the human element in live wagering for a while now.

NHL definitely isn’t being monitored. The data service is pretty good from the rink. The “delayed penalty” is a case where data doesn’t always match the human eye. It’s exploitable sometimes. I can get into that if you like.

I need to ask around. That’s a very interesting thought Kalem. I have been presuming there is no human lately. You understand live wagering is a contracted service that is shared by books? There are fewer live wagering companies than there are books. You will see similar errors across books. I found that to be important information to be conscious of.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Generally, teasing NBA has never appealed to me at all. My intuition has always been that teasing 6 points in an NFL game is worth WAY more than 4 in NBA. And I have never read or heard anything to suggest that there is ever a situation where an NBA teaser is close to +EV, unlike NFL.

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Of course. I was mocking the multiple levels of wagering stupidity that I was committing with my NBA teaser. Most of my NBA bets are satire. I really bet them but I recognize how dumb the NBA is these days and I’m compelled to mock myself.

It’s like snapping a rubber band on your wrist if you want a cigarette. I feel the urge to bet NBA and I publicly shame myself.

Simpdog can tell you it’s a little trick they taught the both of us in GA

Kuemper vs Fleury is the only real data we have today on goalies.

Need an afternoon covid outbreak or something.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Kuemper vs Fleury is the only real data we have today on goalies.

Need an afternoon covid outbreak or something.

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Wait for it. Wait for it.

Boston feels trappy. Devils Blackwood (Expected) vs Bruins Ullmark (Confirmed). Not a lot of difference if you plow through the numbers. The reward is great.

I cannot get that stupid Matt Damon Crypto ad outta my head. Want to use his mockumentary lines constantly. I called it the day Crypto.com did the naming rights deal for Staples

I did a Salami over and a Salami Away over small. I have been wanting to do this every day for a while now. Need to get it outta my system.

Also ready to launch a blanket 1P attack. Waiting for goalies

Matthews rapid tested positive but negative PCR so far....McDavid missing from practice....

Leafs/Oilers tomorrow. Something to keep an eye on.

Who is this Logan Thompson for Vegas? He's listed as likely for me.....Very good AHL #s but only 1 nhl game with 2 shots against. No real games.

DJ Chaps why would you red rep a 40 point winner? At least come back and red rep the dallas pick. I have did a good job of avoiding trap plays like dallas the last 3-4 months. I mean why would dallas win/cover?

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Matthews rapid tested positive but negative PCR so far....McDavid missing from practice....

Leafs/Oilers tomorrow. Something to keep an eye on.

Who is this Logan Thompson for Vegas? He's listed as likely for me.....Very good AHL #s but only 1 nhl game with 2 shots against. No real games.

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VGK feels over

Devils players going down. Bruins is a parlay piece for small money. They are untrustworthy

K State shitshow is running away. -7 ——> -9 I know you got down last night. Good move.

A glimpse into a degenerate’s world. I have been relatively inactive - a few burger bets the past few days. Tonight feels like a night of favorites and overs. No hiding

I haven’t peppered the 1st Period overs. I got a lot out there. I might. The salami should represent a bit of that.

Bruins could hurt me.

Fading Jamarr Chase recency. I already have +400 Mac Jones

All LSU has left is a touch of pride. Tonight they lose that. Laying the points for a decent amount

ESPN is awful, They talk to the coach for 20 minutes right when the game is going on, Who gives a fuck, Talk to him at halftime, A ton of money bet across the world on a lone Tuesday football game. No one cares about what the incoming coach has to say atm

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Originally Posted by 4BET

ESPN is awful

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Nobody is gonna argue. I just have to say that I absolutely love the Mannings on ESPN2 on MNF. It’s pretty much now appointment television. Who the hell thought of that at ESPN?

Now ESPN+ let’s you tune in to the local broadcast for either team in an NHL game. I love that. I’m not interested in 1st level non partisan blathering. If I have a bet on a game I want to hear someone similarly vested. If I want to hear now I’m gonna get fucked it’s a quick channel change.

Do the same thing for college sports. That would be awesome.

Disney isn’t gonna have a clue.

I actually haven’t watched more than a couple minutes of K State LSU. That last score might engage me a bit. This was kind of an automatic paycheck.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4BET

ESPN is awful

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Nobody is gonna argue. I just have to say that I absolutely love the Mannings on ESPN2 on MNF. It’s pretty much now appointment television. Who the hell thought of that at ESPN?

Now ESPN+ let’s you tune in to the local broadcast for either team in an NHL game. I love that. I’m not interested in 1st level non partisan blathering. If I have a bet on a game I want to hear someone similarly vested. If I want to hear now I’m gonna get fucked it’s a quick channel change.

Do the same thing for college sports. That would be awesome.

Disney isn’t gonna have a clue.

I actually haven’t watched more than a couple minutes of K State LSU. That last score might engage me a bit. This was kind of an automatic paycheck.

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I should have watched the Manning cast, but never did. I am a creature of habit, and when I get home from work on Mondays, the controller automatically goes to 206 (ESPN on DirecTV) and stays there. And then I get to spend 3 hours listening to Brian Griese try to put a positive spin on the constant putrid QB play.

I don’t know if I have anything to work with for the Overnight Shit Show. Thin slate.

Should have posted earlier.....McDavid is out for sure and Matthews is playing.

What started out as a -150ish line for Leafs is now -290 or worse.


Draisaitl over 3.5 shots +110.

Leafs -0.5 first period +120

Also don't mind Matthews goal (anytime) -140ish.

Most if not all the experts are fading him. I’m not. I’ll update bankroll later.

Sentry Tournament of Champions-

1K - Sam Burns to win 18-1.

$333 - Sam Burns first round leader 20-1.

These are the going prices in most places.

GL.

@country. Appreciate the sub. Just to let you know I made some videos regarding Christopher Mitchell. I have no editing or technical skills. Just this piehole and a photo album I scroll through. Hoping that changes soon. Just setting the bar as low as possible.

Happening New Year to you. Hoping for a good 2022 for all of us.