*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Daly

To be fair PLOP had a TON going. I had a bunch of car payments going, he had the whole Car. I wouldn’t have been saying much either.

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I need to be crystal clear. I empathized and sympathized completely. I was a little distraught too.

PLOL sharing his political wagering while remaining apolitical was a gift. StarSpangledWagering was a treat. The world of predictit. He didn’t owe us anything.

Most of us are all too familiar with that sickening feeling.

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While I completely disagree with PLOL politically, I never rejoice in anyone's gambling losses. I still have not added up my horseracing losses from April-July, suffice to say it is north of $40K, likely much more but I refuse to add it up, it's still an awful feeling. So while PLOL is very smarmy for sure, I never root for anyone to lose money. Now, I never want big dick to win money but I would not root for him to lose either.

took a shot on GA...got TRUMP at 45c when it was trading on betfair at -250...

still trading around there while betfair has moved it down to trump -150...

love this value on predictit...

Congrats to PLOL for the diligent research and BACKING UP THE MOTHERFUCKING TRUCK

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m not celebrating until I’m paid. That’s just me

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m feeling very comfortable with the fact that I have $$ coming my way.


I’m not feeling comfortable with the timing of when I’m expecting to get it.

When are we gonna get paid from the offshore books?

god, I want to stop following this shit


I’m not holding my breath. I set the line at Weds.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Agreed. People are betting on "Who will win the election". Not "Will the president admit that he lost"

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

When are we gonna get paid from the offshore books?

god, I want to stop following this shit


I’m not holding my breath. I set the line at Weds.

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If Trump pursues a recount/lawsuit strategy, I wouldn't expect it until he exhausts all his options and electors vote in December. If he concedes, then you should get it sooner.

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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This is why I didn’t bet on this election.

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m not celebrating until I’m paid. That’s just me

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I heard Bookmaker isnt paying this out until Jan. Fuck that watch all the back lash.

I got paid by one book for my pa bet not the prez yet??

Makes no sense

My one book paid States not the Prez yet

It states at most of these books if the AP calls it then its official?

If they were smart they put all the money in by tomorrow morning so all the degens will lose it on the NFL.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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This is one situation I’m with the books. This isn’t a “slow settle”.

This election is still be challenged and is going to court. What happens when they pay out everyone and the Supreme Court comes in and Trumps re-elected, however unlikely?

If you bet Trump you going to live with the explanation that we already paid Biden sorry?

No chance you would live with that, nor would I.

I agree with Daly. It's totally appropriate to wait to settle the big markets. Though you can settle markets like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas, etc, which aren't in dispute. I got mega-screwed in 2012 by betting on Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucus. The results initially showed Mitt Romney up by a small handful of votes. I asked Intrade not to settle yet because it was so close, but they snap-settled the contracts and closed the market. Later on they realized they made a mistake and the Iowa DNC reversed the results and Santorum was pronounced the winner. By that point it was too late and InTrade couldn't reverse the trades. All the Santorum betters got a big FU.

Here's the relevant upcoming dates.

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Electoral College electors in each state don’t vote until Dec. 14. The electors’ votes typically align with the popular vote in each state. But not all states require the votes cast by electors to mirror the popular vote. Certificates recording the electoral vote results in each state must be received by the president of the Senate and the archivist no later than Dec. 23.

The official results of the electoral votes are sent to the new elected Congress, which is set to meet in a joint session on Jan. 6, 2021, and announce the results.

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At this point you can make money on PredictIt by predicting the past. We've reached the point where it's fiscally irresponsible to have cash and not be betting on this.

house dems 226-229 is sweetening...trading at 26...

is this even possible?

Trump to win the popular vote trading at 11%. Lol. It's a market that should already be settled at 0 and people are paying 11 cents for it.

I had 1000 "NO" shares on Trump pardoning himself that I paid 65 cents for. I'm dumping at 73 cents now. He's getting way too erratic for me to hold to expiry. No longer like my side. I don't think he can legally pardon himself, but I also don't think he cares what is legal.

Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

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One or more of:
1. Gamblers looking for a long shot.
2. Wishful thinking Trump supporters.
3. People overestimating the likelihood of success because they don't understand the situation.

Trump will overturn the result of zero states. It won't even be close.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

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Recounts and lawsuits won't do anything. Recounts can move a couple hundred votes, at most. The lawsuits have no chance of winning, but that's not the point. The point of the lawsuits isn't to reverse the outcome of states, the purpose is to erode public confidence in elections so they are prepared to accept an electoral college coup. Faithless electors are the only shot Trump has, and it's the angle his legal team is pursuing.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

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Recounts and lawsuits won't do anything. Recounts can move a couple hundred votes, at most. The lawsuits have no chance of winning, but that's not the point. The point of the lawsuits isn't to reverse the outcome of states, the purpose is to erode public confidence in elections so they are prepared to accept an electoral college coup. Faithless electors are the only shot Trump has, and it's the angle his legal team is pursuing.

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This is also impossible.

Every year there are one or two faithless electors who cast a protest vote for someone other than their pledged candidate. They do this because they know the outcome and they know their protest vote changes nothing. This is why one Trump elector voted for Kasich and 2-3 Hillary electors voted for a Native American political activist in 2016.

Electors are not just random people who are waiting for the state to tell them "go vote for Trump" or "go vote for Biden" and then you have to hope they cast their vote as instructed. When you cast a vote for Biden, Trump or whoever, what you are really voting for is a slate of electors that has been chosen ahead of time. Each party chooses a slate of electors. These are people who are involved in their parties and are honored by the party by being chosen as an elector, and they can't wait to go cast their vote for their preferred candidate. So the notion that 37 or more of them will be pledged for Biden but will change their votes to Trump is ludicrous. It cannot happen.

Trump supporters have also been pushing an idea for the state legislatures to vote and award their electoral votes to Trump instead of Biden. Also not possible. The Supreme Court has already ruled that once the state gives its voters the power to determine the state's electors, they can't substitute their own preference. I suppose the Supreme Court could reverse itself. But even if it does, again, you're looking at 4-5 states Trump would have to convince to do this. No state legislature is going to tell its voters "fuck you, you voted for Biden but we're giving our electoral votes to Trump." These state legislators by and large believe in democracy and in voting and they're not going to toss aside the system that we've had for 240 years just to elect who they want. They have to face their own voters every few years, why would they commit political suicide for Trump? Many of them are insulted that Trump is telling them they don't know how to run an election. Most of the states they're targeting are run by Republicans and Trump is saying they fucked it all up. They didn't. The leader of Pennsylvania's senate has already specifically announced that the state legislature will NOT overturn its own voters, ain't no way ain't no how.

Every state recounts if it's close enough. Trump is entitled to ask for recounts in other states too, but he has to pay for them. So let them recount. The margins are big enough it's not going to change the result in even one state, and certainly not in 4-5 states.

Trump's only hope is that the Supreme Court goes rogue and invents some crazy reason why hundreds of thousands of legally cast votes have to be invalidated. Trump has no evidence and no legal backing for such a request. The Supreme Court is not going to commit suicide either. It could actually come before the Court a few times. There could be some procedural matters litigated before the larger legal questions. But when it comes down to the larger legal questions, depending on the exact question before the Supreme Court, I expect he will lose 9-0, and 7-2 at a minimum.

tl;dr: Trump has zero chance, and anyone who understands the system can easily see this.

If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.

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This would come out before the votes are cast and would guarantee him a trip to the iron bar hotel.

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Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak

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Originally Posted by PLOL

If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.

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This would come out before the votes are cast and would guarantee him a trip to the iron bar hotel.

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I won't tell if you don't.

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

house dems 226-229 is sweetening...trading at 26...

is this even possible?

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The short answer is "probably not".

Dems have 218 locked up now, so you can fire "NO" everything 217 and fewer very safely, as well as YES on "Will Democrats control the House" (or the corresponding YES/NO on the other side).

Dems are highly ikely to get CA-34, which will make 219.

They are also very likely to get NY-18 and NY-19, making 221.

Democrats are now leading in IL-14 (looked good for awhile for GOP, now looking like it will stay blue).

Republicans are leading in the following:
CA-39
CA-21
NY-2
NY-3
NY-11
NY-22
NY-24

The five NY should hold for the GOP, and the two CA ones are probably also winning, though CA-21 flipped late in 2018, so that one is tricky.

It's a virtual tie in IA-2 (separated by like 30 votes right now) and UT-4. Those can go either way.

CA-25's lead has gone back and forth, but at the moment, the Democrat is up by 1300. Still a number of votes still to be counted though.

In short, the Dems could get 226 if they score 5 of the following six, which would have to be CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, IL-14, and UT-4, and IA-2. Since CA-39 is probably winning for the GOP, they'd have to sweep the rest, which isn't all that likely, but I wouldn't bet the farm against it.

My big underdog bet on 221 or fewer is looking like it's pretty unlikely to hit, since I would have to get back IL-14 and also win all the CA races, along with UT-4 and IA-2. Ugh.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

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I’d like to put on my game face here and pull together a scenario where It’s Biden bettors who wanted to sell out early so they weren’t holding the bag on a predictit fail.... but I got nothing.

Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

Anyway, between that and people scared of Trump somehow stealing the election, there's enough buyers and sellers to push the Trump price this high, which is ludicrous.

I bought some Biden positions for about 89-90c, and I'm going to wait it out until it's settled, and pick up the free money.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

Anyway, between that and people scared of Trump somehow stealing the election, there's enough buyers and sellers to push the Trump price this high, which is ludicrous.

I bought some Biden positions for about 89-90c, and I'm going to wait it out until it's settled, and pick up the free money.

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You live in reality and so you know the score. Maybe you can convince a few people around here who are currently embarrassing themselves.

The mother of all MAGA markets. This one is worth depositing for.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ona-or-Georgia

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Originally Posted by PLOL

The mother of all MAGA markets. This one is worth depositing for.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ona-or-Georgia

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Honestly, you may want to wait until you can buy in the 60s. Maga money is relentless.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

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Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.

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Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

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Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.

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Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez

Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.

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Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.

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Stop explaining. Just tell them they're right and they should deposit on PredictIt where they'll make a lot of money off these theories.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

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How can they be reasonable when they abandon reason?

How can it be reasonable when there is no reasonable evidence?

For it to be reasonable, there has to be reason. When the "reason" is transparent and laughable and without any of the evidence of the thing they believe to be true, how can it be reasonable, and how can those believing it be reasonable people?

In hindsight, the phrase should have been "otherwise reasonable people" IMO.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

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Originally Posted by PLOL

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

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Years from now a political historian is going to ring you up and interview you. What were the days like following Trump’s loss. The denial, the sorrow and the profit.

The look on your face during the election night broadcast.

It’s all chronicalled for posterity from beginning to end.