The Fiscal Bill the clowns are working on. Remember this one:
The fine print will become the bold print later.
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The Fiscal Bill the clowns are working on. Remember this one:
The fine print will become the bold print later.
Sharing some tea leaves
Log chart back to 1929.
Same angle of trend line as the chart I keep bumping and bumping.
I feel violated
Sell at 157. Buy back at 161. Sell at 155. The OSA system. Coming soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Jumped back in at 161, cause why not?
If CNBC invited Ackman back on air now the FCC would pull their license
23 Mar - 04:05:42 PM [RTRS] - WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENTS ASSOCIATION SAYS IT HAS BEEN INFORMED OF A SUSPECTED CORONAVIRUS CASE AMONG WHITE HOUSE PRESS CORPS
this was not priced into the market.
Rally?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
democrat plant obv,Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRally?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
plot to assassinate to prez? surprised he is not in a bubble suit.
Micon got a gig as a shill for a Robinhood clone. Well played
I’m not Twitter .... somebody else can post
WH Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow says the Senate coronavirus stimulus package will total about $6 trillion:
*$2 trillion in direct cash payments
*$4 trillion in Federal Reserve lending power
*Reiterates it could lead to U.S. economic rebound in second half of 2020
a bowling ball will bounce.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Kudlow is shameless and evil.
can anyone give me a roundabout explanation of why one would roll options instead of selling to close then just spending the money on a new option position?
i feel like this is a huge hole in my game.
and this, people, is why you shouldnt try to rig markets.
please be advised i have no idea whats going on.
my one (1) winning play in like 3 days was a borderline ironic spy call hedge i placed this morning.
I can teach you how to lose money on margin. lmk
I got out of my HSD at a loss today.
Since I need action I did a $1k YOLO on 250 puts for Monday. I have given up trying to figure out wtf is going on.
Short term the money printer is fired up preventing us from SPY $200. But in the medium 3-6 month term things have to be grim.
But I'm a blind monkey playing roulette here.
i was meditating on san's train comment in the shower earlier, as one does.
and something occurred to me.
the fed can stop the market from bending, but it cant stop it from breaking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
so this brings me to an interesting place...
*** the external influences smashing our economy are already being referred to in the context of war-time response, so no solutions are off the table to stabilize the market. ***
we are on an established and reliable upwards trajectory where we are hitting predictable peaks before violent retracement.
so my plan is to bang spy calls, close them within 5% of the resistance line drawn here, and probably scalp the pullbacks.
obviously this assumes we close green on monday. if we drop down into the 240s it may mean the market has gone from bent to broken and its spy 160 time.
what i like about this is that it keeps me in action but makes sure i dont get wiped out if this is a dead cat bounce and we just hit the slope.
War time response, oh yeah.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
so this brings me to an interesting place...
*** the external influences smashing our economy are already being referred to in the context of war-time response, so no solutions are off the table to stabilize the market. ***
we are on an established and reliable upwards trajectory where we are hitting predictable peaks before violent retracement.
so my plan is to bang spy calls, close them within 5% of the resistance line drawn here, and probably scalp the pullbacks.
obviously this assumes we close green on monday. if we drop down into the 240s it may mean the market has gone from bent to broken and its spy 160 time.
what i like about this is that it keeps me in action but makes sure i dont get wiped out if this is a dead cat bounce and we just hit the slope.
Using normal tools in abnormal times. I might be out of my element. That bizarre bond activity late Friday. Obv the whole stimulus is open purchase bonds. Incomprehensible magnitude. Even the threat of the entire world hitting the Fed’s bid with their crap must have kicked in with the 4pm Trump signature news
I can see almost anything happening in the short term. I need to not blow myself up.
Two things I want to run past you for general comment:
A couple weeks back I was referencing the Bloomberg terminal physical security device - the B-Unit. I called Krypt “B-Unit” cause he once used Bloomberg.
Talk to me about Zero Trust Networks. Is this a huge shift? Is this going to be more universal beyond just work from home? Kinda snoozed on this. I saw Citrix smash but obv was distracted.
Gimme a disaster scenario with regard to overtaxed carriers/networks. Talk to me about complete network failure or point me to a doomsday piece. I’d enjoy that a lot
so the thing about network saturation, generally speaking we see a huge percent of traffic going to a handful of networks. eg youtube / netflix / gaming orgs.
scaling up throughput is a lot more expensive than throttling traffic to specific networks. so i think we have a lot of short term solutions that can be rolled out before we get to a crisis point.
and all those clients do have SLAs that mandate a certain performance metric be adhered to, but the language in those contracts generally includes something allowing for 'act of god' emergency measures, so im not sure an executive order would be required or anything like that.
whats more, networks hosting telecommuting bandwidth would likely be paying a lot more out of pocket, so at some point we may simply see this situation reaching a profit tipping point where bigger pipes get rolled out to deal with saturation concerns.
so im not super concerned with the internet 'falling over' or anything, providing king retard + friends dont start making mandates on how to deal with problems that dont exist.
which lets be honest is very much their brand, so yeah, theres that i suppose..
Forecasts and buildout based on trends for video as a percentage of all IP traffic just gotta be knocked on their ass.
Must get help diving into the supply chain. I’ll take suggestions
Not directly related to communication.. Amphenol APH and Molex MOLX are two electrical connector companies on my list. I need to get a little bread and butter going for my self esteem.
its not an easy market to exploit because we have kinda failed at prying control of copper from unions and from that, our wellspring of decaying internet infrastructure springs. so im not sure who the white knights would be here.
In the Northeast we have/had something called Fire Alarm Municipal Masterboxes.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This turn of the century technology existed as it was deadly reliable. It’s largely gone cellular but I had a gig pre cellular bidding this shit to cities and towns.
You pull the white handle on the front and it sent a coded number (see the tag 1361 below) using a unique gear inside to the fire department.
The FD would look up the number (it came in literally like Morse code) and send the trucks to your location.
It ran on cable pulled through municipal ductwork shared by telephone and your data carriers etc. There was a hierarchy of the telephone pole if you wanted to run up there.
The government permit process and the union protection was so frustrating and every job you bid went red. Once your cable was in however it was a license to print money servicing the system. We would have the proprietary (union almost) rights to maintain the system.
This is EXACTLY the same process as running coax and fiber for data.
You speak the truth Sonatine. It’s why we are a backwards data nation compared to France or whatever.
I had a fine nose for scams back in the day.
German state finance minister committed suicide.
But just to be clear we are out of the bear market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
The suicide is interesting. Germany is in far better shape than we are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I’ve always been an admirer of Merkel for the most part. 89% approval rating during the crisis.. Being an actual educated person and scientist is a huge contrast with the Trump clown show.
Hope all is well. Hit me up on the other site - I’m back
There's been a lot of focus on the lack of testing, but hospital labs should be able to test for the virus in house assuming the have an in house lab. Anyways we can assume that the numbers will be more accurate but will jump in the next few days. They are also going to be required to report the amount of available beds, people on vents, etc.
Link to the letter from Pence to the hospitals.Quote:
Academic, University and Hospital “in-house” labs are performing thousands of COVID-19 tests each day, but unlike private laboratories, the full results are not shared with government agencies working to track and analyze the virus. By sharing this critical data, hospitals can help Federal and state government mitigate the effects of COVID-19 and direct needed resources from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Government during this unprecedented crisis.
https://www.cms.gov/files/document/32920-hospital-letter-vice-president-pence.pdf
Reporting requirements
https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/acute-care-...d19/index.html
How does this impact the market?
according to mnuchin virtually nothing has any impact on the markets. and he might not be wrong at this point.
Yeah I have no idea. I just thought it was interesting that the reporting we are currently getting is sans the actual hospital labs doing the tests. The good news might come faster too with more complete reporting.
The market seems to just pick and choose what it reacts to. It seems totally irrational to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gauchojake
the way i see it, is the market responds organically to general investor confidence and then when general investor confidence goes to shit, the fed puts it on life support.
its very difficult to be sure what the fed can / cant accomplish at this point.
we saw this sort of disconnect before the housing crisis, so its not entirely unprecedented, but i feel like what we are seeing now is a much, much, much more severe example because in 2008, it was basically just a case of systemic fraud. and what we are seeing now is that the market is simply not being allowed to reflect the weakness of the dollar, quarterly earnings, GDP, pretty much everything the market was designed to track.
i dont really understand this statement but i see it enough to assume there's some truth to it; we are essentially destroying the dollar so the market stays buoyant. like this goes beyond just money machine goes brrrrr supposedly, where the dollar will take generations to recover. but its a bit over my head all said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by gauchojake
the way i see it, is the market responds organically to general investor confidence and then when general investor confidence goes to shit, the fed puts it on life support.
its very difficult to be sure what the fed can / cant accomplish at this point.
we saw this sort of disconnect before the housing crisis, so its not entirely unprecedented, but i feel like what we are seeing now is a much, much, much more severe example because in 2008, it was basically just a case of systemic fraud. and what we are seeing now is that the market is simply not being allowed to reflect the weakness of the dollar, quarterly earnings, GDP, pretty much everything the market was designed to track.
i dont really understand this statement but i see it enough to assume there's some truth to it; we are essentially destroying the dollar so the market stays buoyant. like this goes beyond just money machine goes brrrrr supposedly, where the dollar will take generations to recover. but its a bit over my head all said.
There are 50T less dollars on paper today than a month ago when there was little inflation.
Going to be hard to “destroy” the dollar when that happens in fact the dollar got stronger vs every commodity there is except vs Gold which is a flawed market for many reasons.
The market also responds to computers which take in historical charts/trends.
When a market crashes 30-40% with some stocks crashing 70-80% there tends to be a rebound, historically speaking. The computers were in control last week. You can’t teach a computer about a pandemic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
god youre good. this has been swimming around my brain since i posted earlier, the alg factor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
god youre good. this has been swimming around my brain since i posted earlier, the alg factor.
I have my moments...
Credit to tellafreind
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I have my moments...
Credit to tellafreind
so much for a gap down on monday...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I'm back to basically all cash. Will wait for the inevitable drop then will dip back in. Set it and forget it.Quote:
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Amazon NYC workers going on strike due to conditions. Fucking scumbags.
Nurses, Doctors and EMS are working without proper equipment, but box folders are on strike because they are the ones that deserve it the most.
Amazon still up 3.5% today lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
the thesis' that make the most sense to me right now are the ones predicting a meltup to spy ~280 by friday followed by an absolutely horrific correction through the floor.
i have a bunch of calls locked in that im going to execute around spy 280 and then go into the weekend with some dotm strangles.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The corona stocks were down at the Bell. I bought some mgm and CCL - so far so good but I can see gravity starting to set back in