Also took Georgia -6.5 this morning. Interestingly the line went down from my book later in the day, not sure why.
The other early lines for next week I took were Houston +10.5 and Oregon +3 -120.
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Also took Georgia -6.5 this morning. Interestingly the line went down from my book later in the day, not sure why.
The other early lines for next week I took were Houston +10.5 and Oregon +3 -120.
Between turnovers and stalled drives Ravens just couldn't get any separation when they were dominating and now Browns got 1 TD drive late in 3rd and back in it. Sigh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Damn, Ravens safety just dropped the easiest interception ever. Baker floated it right to him nice and easy and he just dropped it. Feels like it is just one of those games, and it is what it is.
Still losing day overall, but Ravens covering and Lakers doing what they do best (not covering) definitely helped a lot.
Bets for Nov 29- Dec 15(Week 18)
New
PGA Hero World Challenge - C. Morikawa $1000 at +900
Start $50,000 Remaining $65,500 Current Week $0 Last Week N/A
Total Win/Loss +$16,500
——-
This course does give advantages to the bombers. But Morikawa just won the R2D. +900 I got at William Hill in Nevada. Don’t go lower than +850.
Faded the cripple Baker Mayfield out of boredom. Tuned in occasionally. I do love the midget and his wife’s commercials.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Heard Lamar Jackson threw 3 interceptions in 4 minutes (4 total) and he still won. What a dreadful game. So bad.
I saw the Browns touchdown and review. Ball bounces off the turf during the catch but it’s a prime time game and Browns weren’t gonna score a touchdown otherwise so the referees gave it to him. What a joke. The NFL flag variance is impossible to beat and I figured I lost. It’s wrestling.
The LoL Lakers Home ATS phenomenon is just incredible and I’m so glad somebody else is cashing. How can you be that bad at home ATS? Cause Lakers/LeBron fans are idiots. People keep betting actual cash on the Lakers. You have said the books will adjust. Why should they? They are stealing from the stupid and giving to a few deserving souls like you and me and keeping the rest. I don’t think LeBron fans can read stats or the back of a cereal box. This will keep working.
You coulda scooped some big winning numbers live when Lakers were up. I didn’t. I made my bet preflop and trusted the process. There were moments of doubt but I coulda slept well if I lost. This is the nature of autobets.
I bet the Patriots cause I’ve become a homer and am rooting for my my Mac Jones OROY ticket. That was it betting the NFL. It’s like smoking 2 cigarettes a day. Flirting with addiction that is unhealthy.
The Warriors Suns game is gonna be something. I have no opinion except Warriors are prolly public as fuck. That’s prolly all you need to know in this spot.
My body of work here is large enough that when I say I never mock another guy’s results it can be accepted as fact. I am grateful for my good fortune. Somebody else losing doesn’t bring me any joy. Rather be surrounded by winners.
That said, let’s address the elephant in the room.
Druff isn’t given to public introspection. We have absolutely no idea what his process is after all these years. He used to be loosely categorized an under player. The NBA changed and so did he. That’s all we know.
Given his late posting he appears to be some kind of steam chaser. He appears to like gathering info on as much late sharp action as possible.
Druff also apparently believes injuries are not fully reflected in pricing. He calls out those who are not playing when he posts his pick. This is a big one. Lineups are released late. This was once value, I s’pose. Is the market getting more efficient? I have always been an efficient market guy myself. Especially now with the speed of information with social media etc there is no edge with injuries news. How they are valued is a matter of conjecture. Injuries like weather are over rated.
I am always fascinated by how pricing and the wagering game might be changing now. Druff might be getting run over by something interesting. Wonder if he figured it out.
I am very careful with my choices concerning the information I consume. The death of this thread (site) has me looking for shelter elsewhere. I’ve seen some truly interesting shit as I try to suss out what the wagering landscape really looks like in the normal world.
The success of fairly untalented sports talk radio type guys is noteworthy. Some videos and a forum/discord together with a good microphone. Your community can be parlayed into a casino/Sportsbook sponsorship deal. Men’s grooming and crypto ads., of course. Very little effort. The crypto and sportsbook customer acquisition money is ridiculous. Morons are in high demand these days. So frothy. I wish I had some kind of game. Fun way to earn a living.
Seen some shit. Here’s my trip report.
Public loves bet boosters. I didn’t even know BOL offered them. Never looked. Generally “thanks but no thanks”
Public LOVES parlays. People post 5 teamers daily. People log in and say “I need a 4 teamer today. Got any picks?” Wow. Adding teams like they are ordering fast food ® . Occasionally, someone will post a huge winning ticket from social media. A sage poster will respond, “but taxes”. Legalized wagering y’all.
Legalized wagering allows opportunities the legacy offshores did not. I use the term “opportunities” tongue in cheek. For instance, you can parlay props. Public loves this. Props have higher juice, as is and the parlay math (factoring for that juice) is criminal.
Legalized wagering affords the bettor the opportunity to always cash out an active wager at a discount. ♫ We both know that it’s wrong but it’s much to strong to let it go now ♫.
Legalized wagering affords some to parlay live bets. Tha’ fuck, you say?
I feel like an alien that has landed on earth and found the atmosphere uninhabitable.
San very busy with work today.
Who are we parlaying the Jets with tonight?
Can we trust Buffalo since Seattle is shit on the road?
Been trading the bounce off the overblown Omicron dive Friday. I ain't sayin it’s not bad. I’m just saying it’s the new normal.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I spent too much time with my proxy on Covid and fail business Wynn. It’s pretty much stabilized and I’m blowing off steam here. It’s either that or day drink to calm down
Which is to say I haven’t looked. I saw Jets -300 last night
BRB
My understanding is the books are not offering true odds on all these new parlays. Not even close. But obviously the public has no clue of the math behind it, and might not care if they did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
And I think A lot of what is affecting Druff is just negative variance. But his thesis for a lot of his bets seems to be the bad teams are being undervalued and like you said injury news isn’t being priced in correctly, and obviously neither of these thesis have proven to be winning so far.
Obviously fading Lakers has been great, but I do feel I left a lot of $$ on the table not betting warriors. Had another chance yesterday and passed on it again, and another easy cover.
Jets -305 & Kraken/Sabres over 5.5 +118 parlay for +189.
Goalies confirmed
Coyotes are feeling it a little. You could take the +1.5 PL Yotes responsibly. I like their two goalies tbh. Good Jets spot tho.
Olive Garden bet for now. Will upgrade upon your approval to larger accommodations
I'm going to mirror your parlay and add a sprinkle of Buffalo +120.
bigger slate tomorrow.
I thought of that too. I really should do Sabres.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
psuOtto points out that Calgary is 7 straight winning 1st periods. It’s -135 ML but I’m gonna nurse my dopamine rush into the evening with
Calgary Flames -½ +165 for 1st Period
They don’t always win the game but their opening gambit is consistent
I feel I have to make clear what was just understood between simpdog and I. This is a trash card tonight. Tomorrow is the night.
The NHL equivalent of MNF.
You don’t see this too often. Lol.
Zach LaVine was sick today... and suddenly he's not sick, and he's playing.
Upon the announcement of his suiting up, the totals line jumped 1.5 points.
I'm going to take those 1.5 points and fire the under. LaVine probably won't be 100%, and in fact some are surprised he suited up at all.
Chicago vs. Charlotte - Under 224.5
Sanlmar, I read your post twice. I understood all of the words, but not the greater point trying to be made.
You are correct that I usually wait until near game time, as I like to see the way the action goes, both sharp and square. I also like to have more of a full injury picture, especially in the NBA, where that matters more.
My early struggles this year have been as follows:
1) Failing to ride fairly obvious streaks (Warriors playing far better than expected, Lakers being a failteam, Orlando being horrendous)
2) Wagering on moneylines for bad teams. It's not falling this year like it used to. Had I stuck to 1H on those games, I'd be doing better. That's what I'm doing going forward with these type of games.
3) Bad picks. Some of the picks were just not very good, and didn't come close.
4) Wrong side of variance. There's been a lot of close ones which fell the wrong way, and some games where I seemed to be a 90%+ favorite to win at some point, where I ended up losing.
So it's been a combo of not picking very well this season AND a lot of bad luck.
We shall see.
I think his point is that you may not have the edge you think you do, the people moving the lines have all the news before you do and have squeezed all the value out before you act, and you are just flipping coins at -110 and running bad on top.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Looks like I keep flipping a coin which is biased against me.
Bulls/Hornets playing zero defense, yet the game is close, and this under pick is probably fucked, barring a really slow 2nd half.
I was considering Indiana and Denver picks, both of which will probably win today. Instead I chose this. Sigh.
I bet Thunder, Timberwolves and WFT (football). On pace to go 0-3 but there is always hope, especially in the basketball. None of the teams my sides are playing are very good, so always chance for a comeback.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
But yeah, neither Bulls or Hornets play particularly slow so you are going to need some real bad shooting in 2nd half. GL.
I have WFT +1.
So the good news is they are up 8 points halfway through the third (should be 10, but gave away 2 points on LOL kicking game). The bad news is they literally have no kicker. Stay tuned.
Well, I lose again.
At least I can take some (small) solace in that my Indy pick would have (probably) lost had I made it, so had I gone with both Indy and Denver, I would've split them anyway.
Sweating the LOL Timberpuppies. Towns has been playing with 5 fouls the whole 4th Q and is a real liability because he is too scared of getting his 6th. He is also turning the ball over a lot on offense. Would honestly be better fro the team if he just fouled out and they got a center to play some D.
I am watching the game. I think Pacers are favorite to cover with 2 minutes left. Luckily Towns finally fouled out (on his 9th offensive turnover). If it wasn't for him playing like shit Timberwolves would have pulled away a long time ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LOL. Pacers tie it up on a foul call on a jump ball. You cant make this shit up.
Yeah I see that. I thought they were dead, but now they're coming back, and the momentum is back on Pacers side. Had I bet it, I would've done the moneyline though.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI am watching the game. I think Pacers are favorite to cover with 2 minutes left. Luckily Towns finally fouled out (on his 9th offensive turnover). If it wasn't for him playing like shit Timberwolves would have pulled away a long time ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LOL. Pacers cover on junk bucket off of an offensive rebound at the buzzer when they were down 4. You cant make this shit up. Stevie Wonder saw that one coming though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYeah I see that. I thought they were dead, but now they're coming back, and the momentum is back on Pacers side. Had I bet it, I would've done the moneyline though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
In other news WFT is up 8 with the ball in chip shot FG range late in 4th. Any other team on any other night hits the chip shot FG and game is over. But Redskins have to go for it because no kicker. Just one of those nights I guess.
4th and goal and WFT is too scared to kick a 20 yd FG to ice the game and is going for it. You can’t make this up.
And refs overturn a TD catch that was way way way way cleaner than the browns TD last night. Some super shady shit going on right about now.
Phantom BS PI call to keep Seattle drive going. Refs doing their thing.
When Seattle wins this game in addition to the refs it will be Antonio Gibson fault. He went out of bounds in 3rd and goal to give Seattle an extra 30 seconds they are using with the refs help to drive down field.
Edit: WFT still wins but so much fail.
In other news I have Clippers ML as part of a parley against the shitty Pelicans, and halfway through 2nd they are down 20 due mainly to Valancuinas (yes, that Valanciunas) going 7-7 from 3 point line so far.
Did I miss Druff’s Warriors pick and Lakers fade?
Against my better judgment:
Houston at OKC - Over 216.5
Dallas at New Orleans - Over 216
Bets for Nov 29- Dec 15(Week 18)
Current
PGA Hero World Challenge - C. Morikawa $1000 at +900
New
South African Open - G Higgo $800 at +1200
Start $50,000 Remaining $64,700 Current Week $0 Last Week N/A
Total Win/Loss +$16,500
——-
Betonline, Westgate and William Hill have him at +1200. Seems like the price is the same wherever you can find it. MGM not offering odds.
Damn. 2-0 night. Maybe you turned the corner and time to start sheeping you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
@simp
Lip smacking good card but as I drill into this the number of Covid players is driving me nuts. Still working.
For example, entire Bruins AHL roster seems to be sick. Bruins coach is sick. It’s almost impossible the Bruins don’t go plague. I faded the last game and just auto faded again. Marschand suspended too. Swayman sucks.
Don’t get married to the stats today.
Reverse Covid pick is Islanders but tiny scared money.
I’m not so sure hockey will play in the Olympics. This is too fucked up.
Look at that TNF game too. What a Covid shitshow. I can’t even begin to imagine how people can handicap that hot mess.
Edit
Look at the rest of the AHL. Quite a few teams are shut down.
Blues Goalie Binnington out Covid and Husso is in. Great numbers but he sucks. Right? If he was so great why does he have permanent residence on the bench for years?
I stepped on a land mine (bet) with the Hurricanes too. Model was too good. Defense sick. Oops FML.
This is the kind of shit I have to deal with.
As per normal this year don't have a lot of time today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Avs bounceback tonight. Mac daddy is back -1.5 +135. Last night got pounded by my Leafs.
Wash/Carolina parlay -105 here.
I do not understand the AV’s love but you’re not alone. It’s me I’m sure. Goalie creep show. I do see points
Hosing down the room. I think I love them all equally. NEVER SAW A FAVORITE I DIDN'T LIKE. I’m excellent at maths. I will not review for anyone but my subscribers. Sorry Druff
Lotta Same Game Parlays (SGP, yeah, you know me). Working for me this year. Obv smaller bet size
Random 3 team teaser slipped in there so I don’t fall asleep Sunday on my couch
I think it’s Farmer in the Dell for Buffalo against Panthers. Mercy. This is special shit in the NHL. Tokarski got the RoRo now other choice is some minor league AHL kid.
Panthers are you parlay piece. Dallas pairing with Panthers and a white Zinfandel would give you +100 but you run your units now you run your units.
Puck line for that new boat?
Edit
Dell is confirmed
If you exceed the max wager allowed 1P is your next option
Avs -1.5 won easily but how did the parlay fail so badly?
Have Cowboys -6.5.
They are up 20-10 and cruising in the 4th, and I dont think they even need to score again to cover, and Dak throws a horrible pick and now Saints have life. Horrible. This smells like Cowboys still winning but Saints covering.
4th and 8 at midfield and of course Saints convert. What else isn't new.
LOL. Cowboys were up 17 with 2:00 left and Saints had no timeouts and Cowboys allowed a 70 yard TD that included 3 missed tackles. So now have to sweat onside kick. Unreal.