*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Here's what I got so far on the afternoon games:

Miami (W. Chen) at Cincinnati (Romano) - Under 9 -115

San Francisco (Stratton) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 9 -105


Notes:
Miami pick is very anti-public

SF pick is semi-public (that is, public moderately favors my pick)

Atlanta has mashed the ball lately. Acuna, Albies, Markakis, Freeman have been super hot. And Stratton got bombed last time out. So keep all that in mind before tailing me on that one.


I know it might be hard to bring yourself to bet an under on two offensive juggernauts like the Reds and Marlins, but try to force yourself.

I really wanted to bet the Indians o 10.5, but not going to lay -130 on a total

Every fifth start Tomlin looks like prime Jamie Moyer early in the season. The other four he’s like me throwing BP. Against the Yankees, that could get real ugly.

Considered the under on the Chicago/St. Louis game but decided I'll pass.

I'm looking at one more: Under on the Angels. That one starts after 7pm PDT, so I'll post it closer to game time if I like it.

Interesting one in Arizona -- you can get like +180 right now on the Dbacks AT HOME!

That's very tempting, even though they're up against Houston and Gerrit Cole, and even though they're sending out washed up Kris Medlen, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2016, was horrible that year, and didn't look too good in the minors this year. Very tough decision on that one. Can you really pass on a +180 on a 21-11 team at home, just because their starting pitcher is awful?

I'm considering that too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sheesfaced

Hmm I wonder why?

Surely it wouldn't have anything to do with the fact it was their second game of the day and the first one happened to be an 11 inning slugfest where they used 8 pitchers would it? Nah couldn't be that.

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When I bet it, the first game hadn't started yet.

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That's irrelevant to my post. You were questioning why a manager would leave in a reliever who didn't "have it." I was merely commenting as to why in the very game you were referring too.

Someone noose me for betting with the public.

Anyway...

at Arizona (Medlen) +178 vs Houston (g. Cole)

Starts 6:40 PT

Looks like I shoulda passed with the public Braves under and gone with the non-public Cubs under.

Oh well.

Hopefully Reds under holds.

Decided to skip the Angels game. Done for the night.

1-1 on the totals

Shoulda listened to my own advice about Medlen with the Dbacks.

4-0 Hou

Ugh

Ha, both unders I considered but didn't take are doing well (Angels & Cubs).

Shoulda done those and skipped the two losers I posted where I openly expressed concern while posting them.

Annoying when I clearly see which games to choose and then make 4/5 wrong decisions.

Only good decision of the day was the Reds under.

Sometimes I lose games but am still confident in the pick. Today wasn't one of those days.

I deserved to lose today.

Horse betting article, early US computer nerds build algorithm and make hundreds of millions. What a life, wehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

TEAM WINS
Arizona Cardinals 5 ½ (-130 over)
Atlanta Falcons 9
Baltimore Ravens 8 (-120 over)
Buffalo Bills 6.5 (-130 over)
Carolina Panthers 9 (-120 under)
Chicago Bears 6.5 (-140 over)
Cincinnati Bengals 7 (-120 under)
Cleveland Browns 5.5 (-130 over)
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 (-120 over)
Denver Broncos 7 (-120 under)
Detroit Lions 8 (-120 under)
Green Bay Packers 10 (-140 under)
Houston Texans 8.5 (-120 over)
Indianapolis Colts 6.5 (-130 under)
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 (-130 over)
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 (-120 under)
Los Angeles Chargers 9 (-140 over)
Los Angeles Rams 9.5 (-150 over)
Miami Dolphins 6
Minnesota Vikings 10
New England Patriots 11 (-130 over)
New Orleans Saints 9.5
New York Giants 6.5 (-130 over)
New York Jets 6 (-130 under)
Oakland Raiders 8 (-120 over)
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 (-140 under)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 9 (-120 under)
Seattle Seahawks 8 (-120 under)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 (-120 over)
Tennessee Titans 8
Washington Redskins 7 (-130 under)
Per the Westgate SuperBook, as of April 29

-Anyone love any of these? Bengals U7 struck me, but I haven't really looked at their schedule.

The two that struck me were Dolphins under 6 and cowboys under 9 (at my book)

76ers -9 seems pretty absurd when they just got beat by the Celtics twice. They could/should win at home but is anyone paying 9 points? Gotta win by 10+ to win your bet? No thanks. I’m splashing Celtics and ML +350

Ha, considered the Cubs, but that pick was "public as fuck" as badguy said, so I stayed away. Up 4-0 right now.

So here's two other picks, starting at 1:15pm PDT:

Detroit (J. Zimmerman) +140 at Kansas City (Hammel)
Detroit/KC - Under 9.5 -120

I hesitated hitting "bet" on the under when it was -115 and it moved to -120 seconds later. So annoying.

Maybe more picks later

Okay guess it's good I didn't fire Cubs. 4-4 now.

Wow

Next games up:

at White Sox (H. Santiago) -1.5 +215 vs. Minnesota (Lynn)
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 8.5 -105

Starting 4:10pm PDT

One more:

Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Texas (Hamels) - Under 9 +101

Starts 5:05 PT

Unbelievable.

3-1 Det in bottom 9, 1 out, man on 2nd.

Routine fly ball, should be 2 out.

Leonys Martin -- a good CF -- dropped it. No reason. Just mangled the play. 3-2 man on 2nd, 1 out now.

Keep in mind there was already a near-disasterous error in the 7th where 1B Hicks dropped the ball and loaded the bases instead of ending the inning, but thankfully no runs scored.

If I lose this +140 based upon this, I'll be furious.

Another bad play to make runners at 1st and 3rd.

Never easy.

John Jay whiffed to end the game.

Double win on that game, taking both the +140 side and the under.

On the negative side, Minnesota is already beating down the White Sox. 2-0 with just 1 out in the 1st, and I need to win the game by 2. But Lance Lynn sucks so you never know what will happen.

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

76ers -9 seems pretty absurd when they just got beat by the Celtics twice. They could/should win at home but is anyone paying 9 points? Gotta win by 10+ to win your bet? No thanks. I’m splashing Celtics and ML +350

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+350 doesn’t come easy. Couldn’t fade the 1.7 second shot to tie

Let’s get it in OT!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

76ers -9 seems pretty absurd when they just got beat by the Celtics twice. They could/should win at home but is anyone paying 9 points? Gotta win by 10+ to win your bet? No thanks. I’m splashing Celtics and ML +350

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+350 doesn’t come easy. Couldn’t fade the 1.7 second shot to tie

Let’s get it in OT!

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Unreal.

Hope we don’t get Druff’ed in OT