Outstanding 2-0Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I believe you have put together quite a run recently.
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Outstanding 2-0Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I believe you have put together quite a run recently.
Cowboys are only -200 to win the NFC East. I cant see this not be free money.
Washington and Giants both suck and Dallas has good rushing defense and can put up points. They could go 9-0 once thev beat Carolina to go 4-0. That's going to be a low scoring game for sure. Going to go under 50.5.
Eagles probably going to go .500 if that.
Cowboys have a real bad backup QB situation. Dak gets hurt and things can get ugly fast. But yeah -200 seems like value. Chances are Dak stays healthy and even if he goes out and the team gets a lot worse, but they could still possibly win games in this crappy division.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Once the regular MLB season winds down, I won't be posting many MLB picks. Playoff betting is really hard because books put a lot more effort into setting lines. This is true across all major sports.
Kinda sad I didn't pull the trigger on the Orioles yesterday, because I was really feeling they were going to beat the Red Sox, and were like +250. However, I chickened out because the Sawks are in a super tight wildcard race, and in the final week of the season when a lot is on the line, failteams tend to get smacked around by good teams more than usual. Orioles squeaked by and won.
But I can't complain too much, winning both of my picks yesterday, especially the Royals where Singer had an awful outing and didn't last an inning, leaving during the 1st with arm discomfort after giving up 3 runs. That injury actually saved my bet, as the bullpen was excellent and gave up just 1 run in the last 8 1/3 innings, and the Royals came back to win.
I look forward to firing on the NBA in a few weeks, though I've had a hard time in the NBA in the second half of the season, so I'm going to have to watch that going forward. NBA is hard because the game seems to be changing so rapidly, and I'm having to modify my strategy seemingly every year. I much prefer betting on baseball.
I'm not an NFL guy, so I will leave that to the experts here.
Cannot get off St Louis now....-113/ yesterday caught them at +$ on a 16W streak.now 17.....ty ty ty//.
This why dopes Like CM lose....They fade streaks, They increase bets when losing. NOT winning, Dopes... you jump on W3 in a row until they lose. You lose 1x, go the other way you lost from W4-W15. owwww
CM beyond a grifter, narcissistic thief, being a horrible provider to family, He is mentally ill, delusional, has dreams of Grandeur that shall elude him as long as he takes the road he travels.....
His mind is Polluted with Lust of Riches, all materialistic Lusts to boot...
None of Family, well being, peace....
He is as doomed as a man w/term.bigC. BUT UNLIKE TERM.C GUY HE HAS TO LIVE and go on for the remainder of his days after being destroyed from inside to out.
He will Weep, moan & Pray to die one day.....
As it is written, so shall it be.
Mark 14:35,36
"And he went forward a little, and fell on the ground, and prayed that, if it were possible, the hour might pass from him…"
@ shoeshine
I’ve been riding the Cardinals too. Parlay piece. However, I’m on Brewers +102. My handicap is pretty amateur. Cardinals lineup is exhausted and has clinched the wildcard. The only thing important to the Cards right now is resting up and preparing for the Dodgers. The Brewers have stumbled into the close and are not finishing strong. They need to get right.
It’s a flip and I’m taking Brewers small. Save ammo for Giants & Dodgers
In a story which is as old as the baseball playoffs
I have not gotten my tip sheet from CM yet. Is he on Brewers?Quote:
Brewers P Devin Williams drunkenly breaks hand during clinch celebration, expected to miss playoffs
@ Druff
My greatest success has been baseball playoffs. Not a huge sample size admittedly. For the same reason you don’t bet Dodgers most of your neighbors do. This is not uncommon across a country that now has state legalized wagering for the most part. Thoughtless homers.
Mattress Mack will show up with suitcases and lay a million or two on the Astros. This is replicated many times at nearly similar silly amounts
Baseball unlike football or basketball is pretty nearly solved. More amateurs than you imagine have a model and upload last nights data at the push of a button. I don’t think the books (of which very very few originate numbers) are sharpening their pencils. Baseball playoffs are more than ever about balancing action.
Okay... just one today... I think.
Baltimore (Lowther) vs. Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9.5 -110
Always felt Eovaldi was overrated and overpaid, and I still think that. However, he did roll off 7 straight decent starts from August 11th to September 19, before getting shellacked by the Yankees last time out. But we will forgive that, and this is a much easier matchup.
Let's attempt to continue the streak.
The one starts at 3:35pm PDT.
Pittsburgh (Yajure) vs. Cubs (Steele) - Under 8.5 -105
Battle of the failteams. Battle of the rookies.
Both profile as ones who can probably handle fail lineups fairly well, but struggle against tough offensive squads. Steele has particularly good stuff (52K in 50 IP this year), but his command has been off, and he's given up a lot of HR lately.
Wouldn't be surprising to see both of them pitch well here, though neither will be in for a lot of innings.
Anyone betting tonight's TNF game shows true degeneracy.
Over 46 and Jags covering +7.5. I don't advise this but I'm sprinkling a bit on Jags winning at +280. Good luck.
On Jags +7.5 as well.
Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)
New
PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $500 at +1400
Current
LPGA Shorpite - SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800
Start $50,000 Remaining $44,000 Current Week $0 Last Week -$1,620
Total Win/Loss -$4,500
————
Burns was 16-1 before today. He shot 4 under without capitalizing on the Par 5s. Glad to take him at 14-1 and would expect him to handle the Par 5s tomorrow and hopefully into the weekend. Pretty close to his pre tournament price.
Really annoying. Pittsburgh didn't score, as I thought might happen. Cubs hammered Yajure and were up 7-0 after 3. Yet here we are in the 9th, and it's only 9-0. One fewer run and I would've won anyway, most likely. Oh well.
Time to fire on another one I like
Battle of the has-beens:
Arizona (Bumgarner) at San Francisco (Kazmir) - Over 8.5 -110
Today was a minor hiccup for the streak. Maybe you put a little on top of this like Chrissy taught us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)
New
PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $1000 at +1400
Euro Dunhill Horsfield $150 at 100-1
Current
LPGA Shorpite - SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800
Start $50,000 Remaining $43,550 Current Week $0 Last Week -$1,620
Total Win/Loss -$4,500
————
Like Burns even more. Doubling down to $1000. Horsfield is a miracle bet. But the guy got hot late in the round and is playing the easier course in the early wave tomorrow. Lost big bets on him. Worth a shot betting small with astronomical odds.
As NFL spreads get sharper does the value of teasers increase?
NFL through 3 weeks 7-3, +3.7 units coming off a clean sweep 3-0 last week.
KC -7
GB/Pitts over 45.5
ATL +1
I’m optimistic about Burns but SY Kim just a mess. They are playing in Atlantic City and I’m surprised she hasn’t hit a window out in the hotel. At least I didn’t go watch this because the tickets are dirt cheap. No live odds on this tournament so couldn’t switch horses. Two things that are tilting is Inbee was the other name I just didn’t pull the trigger on. I also have a feeling if the big guy was here I would have a few bucks on Castren. He always liked her game.
GL this weekend to everyone.
Cincy -1.5 teaser piece never in doubt despite leading for a grand total of 0 secondsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
+165
Shop your teaser prices amongst a couple books. The books are getting hit by winning teaser action -especially this year. The juice is getting adjusted and varies greatly
Honestly, for me the teaser thing is a continuation of late season MLB big favorite parlays success. I’m losing my will to gamble cause I want to hang on to profit. Teasers been working and digging into the approach revealed I am not alone this year.
Giants Dodgers parlay cashed again…. but that’s not news.
I have concerns about Titans. Wish it was the last piece so I could hedge
Value UFC picks, Saturday 10/2, starting at 4pm ET:
Shanna Young +110, .75u
Gaetano Pirrello +215, .75u
Devonte Smith -150, 1u
Joe Solecki -135, 1u
Mike Breeden +400, .5u
Misha Cirkunov +125, 1u
Kevin Holland -165, 1u
Johnny Walker +135, 1u
Joking Sandwich. Thanks for posting. I just bet these for fun and I’ve had LOTS of fun thanks to you.
I used to do well at UFC but then stopped following it as closely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Sandwich has been amazing...that is if you like money or your wife does.
San the real question is how excited are you that it's October?
Dodgers playoff games, the cool crisp air and ......................... NHL betting is back
Hopefully someone here can find something profitable early on......the glory days of 1p are done, what's next?
Oh yeah, I’m jacked about October.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Lol, Dodger playoff games …. we interrupt this post with a Todger alert:
Clayton Kershaw is playing an important fall game tonight. Now I’ve been parlaying Dodgers/Giants and I kinda think it’s still good tonight. However, its important to get myself playoff ready and find a way to fade October Kershaw. Make sure the muscle memory is on point. We might not get another chance if Scherzer has hit the wall as it appears he has.
Milwaukee Brewers team total over 2½ -145 for Game
Look, you want the easy money you can tail Sandwich. Buy that little restaurant in town and make it a social club for your friends. Instead, this is your opportunity to join greatness like myself. Do you think Druff has any more tears left?
We always figure something out in hockey. Gotta check on rules changes and points of emphasis (refs). Yes, it’s important to identify early trends but there is so much going on.
You haven’t responded to my team’s outreach. You gotta let me know what you want me to do with that money.
This is a flare in the ocean, but this looks over tonight Houston-Tulsa, 55.
Both the teams can score, and this conference plays shitty defense, but who knows in a game like this.
Burns has missed 5 5-8 footers. But he still is right in it. Hopefully he cleans it up on the weekend. 6 under on today’s round and can’t by a putt.
I really hate unders like these, but it's hard to ignore this one, because it looks pretty good.
Philadelphia (Suarez) at Miami (S. Alcantara) - Under 6.5 -110
I realllllllly hate betting under 6.5 because you are fucked if the score goes 3-3.
Both of these pitchers have looked excellent recently, aside from one not-so-good one for Alcantara last time out at Tampa. But even in that one Alcantara didn't walk anyone, and his control has been excelelnt lately. Suarez is coming off a CG shutout against the Pirates.
This is a meaningless game in the standings, as both teams are clinched out of the postseason. Only Dodgers/Giants games matter at this point in the NL.
Another win.
Gonna be sad to see the regular season end.... for both this reason and because the Dodgers are running out of time.
Another win (really two). Mine was much much less stress
Milwaukee Brewers team total over 2½ -145
Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers will have under 6.5 strikeouts
Gonna be sad to see Kershaw’s season end. He may be hurt. Who know with him in October.
I still think Dodgers win …. Looking hard live. Hader & co aren’t gonna waste their time on this. Lauer ain’t going 95 pitches. Dodgers bullpen budget looking a little taxed though.
Druff,
MegaUploadTroll Walter is trolling in this thread as usual, this is supposed to be a non troll thread. I get he is obsessed with me, but can you remove him from this thread including neg reps? He has fantasized for years I am divorced and a dead beat father, none of which is true but why ruin a good fake story. LOL. What a weirdo. See above.
So I bet Maryland +3 home vs Iowa. Big Thursday night game.
Halfway through the 1st Q Maryland is up 7-3 and things looking pretty good. In the next 1.5 quarters Maryland proceeded to have 5 turnovers and 80 yards of penalties and by halftime they were down 34-3 and that was that.
The funny thing is that Iowa did identically the same thing to Iowa St. a couple weeks ago. Iowa St. was looking like the better team early but then they turned it over a bunch and that was that. I guess Iowa figured out the trick to winning big road games was to force the other team to turn it over 5+ times. Who knew?
Does anyone think UGA +17 is way too rich for a noon game against a tough Arkansas team? I mean this is a classic 21-17 game on paper. I might make a significant bet on Arkansas, this might be one of those years.
I find myself with some free time here and you made me look.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Definitely Akansas +17 and the under 48. The line has tumbled from + 19.5. It’s prolly only available at +16.5. I am going to shop around.
I’m interested but not expert of course.
I’m off it. I can only get Arkansas +16.5 I missed it. I’ll try to,remember to see if “they” buy back Georgia tomorrow and take Arkansas at a better price
You have done alright so so maybe I defer to you.
I’m kinda depressed now. That looks really cool but I’ll stay disciplined. I want at least 17 at a good price
I also have USU +9. BYU is covering now and in no danger of losing the game (halfway through the 3rd), but the backdoor is still open.
My book is still at +16.5. I am definitely going to take Arkansas at some point, but going to wait and see if I can get a 17.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI find myself with some free time here and you made me look.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Definitely Akansas +17 and the under 48. The line has tumbled from + 19. It’s prolly only available at +16.5. I am going to shop around.
I’m interested but not expert of course.
Good on the push, it was lucky with the field goal at the end. I did hedge on Houston with points, they were actually the underdogs which was crazy easy money.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Another win.
6 pt teaser -110
Arkansas +22 for Game
Mississippi +20½ for Game
Ole Miss vs Alabama
Arkansas fell another half point to +16 since tgull planted this betting worm in my ear. If I had any discipline …….
Thanks tgull. Who’s the degenerate now?
When is Brewers Lauer going to the showers? This scrimmage with the Dodgers has gone on long enough.
Back door was open, but QB threw an INT and that was that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
In the 2 games I took tonight the turnover margin against me was 9-0. That is a Hard hill to climb.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamBack door was open, but QB threw an INT and that was that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
In the 2 games I took tonight the turnover margin against me was 9-0. That is a Hard hill to climb.
Welcome back, Verm.
I have Tampa tomorrow -7 at NE and New Orleans also -7. Had to drive to New Hampshire for this because there is no betting on games in gay Massachusetts. I felt like it was worth the trip because I'm sure Tampa covers that line