Also this sucks that my over 10.5 is 0-0 after 2. I was leery about counting on the Indians to be part of an over 10.5, but they've put up some runs on the board lately.
Im eyeing the Angels for tonight but not sure I can pull the trigger.
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Also this sucks that my over 10.5 is 0-0 after 2. I was leery about counting on the Indians to be part of an over 10.5, but they've put up some runs on the board lately.
Im eyeing the Angels for tonight but not sure I can pull the trigger.
My book is currently at Iowa +4 EV. WTF is going on??Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
This Iowa line is so off it must be a trap. Everyone I know hammered +3.5 including myself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Early line plays
Iowa +3.5
Florida -29
Purdue -33.5
So Alabama -15
NC St -2
Zona St -33.5
A&M -17
I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.
Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5
Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers
It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax
Is -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Vegas backing a Week one overreaction. Iowa st lost week one last year and went on to have a great season so maybe I’m the sucker.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamMy book is currently at Iowa +4 EV. WTF is going on??Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
A ton. I’d rather have 4.5 -150. It’s not a half a run it’s 1.5 to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamIs -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The boys are right. The difference between winning with 5 and needing to get 6 to win is monumental within 5 innings.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamIs -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Bases loaded and no outs top of 1st. A’s Kaprielian allows only one run. 30 stress pitches though.
Seems we were right. We will see.
I wasn't even factoring too much into the Week 1 performances. I feel like this game is always decided by 1-3 points, even when one team (normally Iowa) is a massive favorite.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyVegas backing a Week one overreaction. Iowa st lost week one last year and went on to have a great season so maybe I’m the sucker.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I could be completely wrong, but my gut is for both Iowa-Iowa St. and BYU-Utah if you always took took the points with a dog that was +3.5 or more you would be massive +EV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
Good call Joe. There was a ton of value on the Euros (+225) in many places. I was wrapped up for three days waiting for Rahm to catch and pass Cantlay so I didn’t pay attention too much. You were right and your LPGA knowledge has always been great. Wish I didn’t lay off. I will admit I did think the US would win this but would never have laid -200 or more. Great stuff as always.
Worked out. The 5 got there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Is this stupid? I’ve never done anything like it before but it feels right
Teaser
Football - 452 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 for Game
Football - 311 Boston College -30½ for Game
Good grief Sandwich. Nice hit. +275Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Didn’t handicap it or watch it but obviously I gotta figure out if this is gonna become a thing going forward. What is going on on San Diego exactly?
Well, I screwed up. Meant to bet it, figured I had time, took a nap, woke up too late.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarGood grief Sandwich. Nice hit. +275Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Didn’t handicap it or watch it but obviously I gotta figure out if this is gonna become a thing going forward. What is going on on San Diego exactly?
I didn't explain at the time, but my rationale here was that Angels starter Packy Naughton has 4 decent pitches, throws fastballs with command, and just hasn't quite put it together yet. However, he was the type of guy who could come in and surprise everyone, and indeed, he shut down SD for 5 innings. My hesitation on this one was Blake Snell, who has otherwise been a disappointment in 2021. Snell has somehow looked really good again since August 3, including 7 hitless innings in his last outing. So I was worried he would destroy the Angels, who were without Ohtani as a starter because he has no position to play in the NL when not pitching. Indeed, Snell pitched very well again, but the Padres' bats were asleep, and that was that.
Congrats to Sandwich.
The 18 year old, Raducanu is about to upset Bencic at the US Open. She has not lost a set in the entire tournament. Incredible. Even if you don’t bet tennis and are poor you will hear about this on ESPN
I got her at +140 preflop and better live.
Fuck you badguy. Make things right. I miss tennis betting on PFA
My son has been driving 3 hours back and fourth to NYC. He was caught in the hurricane and flood one night.
I need to get right with my life. Shoulda gone too
Who's more impressive?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Raducanu or my girl Leylah?
Crazy that we have Leylah and Felix in the semis. Unfortunately I think Felix loses Friday but Leylah will have a chance.
And yes you have it all wrong. Your boy should be holding fort while you're watching live tennis. What we do for our kids....
Wow. She is going to semi finals. This will be a good handicap going forward. She was very very nervous before this match in the press conference.
Simp, if you want to cash this you need to call 3 friends.
Blue Jays team total over 4½ -119
I’m gonna call my therapist cause I’m relying on that inconsistent offense
Going Sanlmar and doing a risky bet, like $800 but fuck it, I'll just buy some shitcoins if it loses. Anyway, under 3.5 Mets - Marlins first five innings.
Lunch money wake and cash KBO special:
Hanwha Eagles/LG Twins first 5 U4
I will check later but do not have 1st 5 yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I’m intrigued. 1st 5’s a sign of sharp minds
guy who i follow is a sharp guy...crushed the KBO last year and has done well with the limited amount of picks he has posted this year...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI will check later but do not have 1st 5 yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I’m intrigued. 1st 5’s a sign of sharp minds
i'd say 95% of his plays are F5 unders...basically fuck the KBO bullpens...
only posting the plays he really likes here...
Bets for Sep 7- Sept 12 (Week 7)
Current
Euro BMW Champ - $800 S Horsfield +6600 (Line moved right away to +5000)
Start $50,000 Remaining $43,220 Current Week $0 Last Week -$2,280
Total Win/Loss -$5,980
————————————-
Taking a shot. I may have something for the Seniors. No autopsy of last week. It was what it was. Issue for three days was proximity to the hole for Rahm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Nice and easy.
Hopefully Dwai and his people can hook me up with that horse medicine. I’m feeling a bit feverish.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Nice and easy.
I will gladly take extra innings.
I listened to some ‘tards talking about the possibility of Jays in the post season. They are the least consistent yet talented team in the MLB. Jays post season is mad hatter gibberish.
2-0 for you. You’ve been running good.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Please put your Sanlmar voodoo doll down now. Okay? (Wink)
Crazy shit, I had under intra game Cubs-Whatever team they were playing. Another $800. 5.5. Jeyson Heyword just hit a three run homer. I mean I knew it would be close, but fuck. Anyway I just popped a couple stimulus checks so have a nice night.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar2-0 for you. You’ve been running good.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Please put your Sanlmar voodoo doll down now. Okay? (Wink)
Bets for Sep 7- Sept 12 (Week 7)
Current
Euro BMW Champ - $800 S Horsfield +6600 (Line moved right away to +5000)
New
Euro BMW Champ First Round Leader - $200 S Horsfield +6600 (Avail MGM)
Start $50,000 Remaining $43,020 Current Week $0 Last Week -$2,280
Total Win/Loss -$5,980
————————————-
Gambling this week. Late draw not totally ideal but hope things play fair. He has gone low R1 before. I think 66-1 it’s worth rolling the dice he goes low. Also no weekend/Sunday nerves.
Not a clue who Horsfield is but I just max bet him to beat Rasmus HojgaardQuote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
In all likelihood a bad bet unless you got +150 or betterQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Not a clue who Horsfield is but I just max bet him to beat Rasmus HojgaardQuote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
For the first time in ~ 7-8 years im taking a prolonged break from this site. Good luck with football this season. Hit me on PM if anyone needs anything I won’t be following here anymore.
:entertained
Wow. Horsfield just shit the bed going minus 2 into the easiest part of the course and then bogey bogey. But even par will do just fine for your bet. Rasmus totally shit the bed. Weird game. Just don’t need Sammy to go full bed shit. Glad someone is winning. (3 bed shit references in one paragraph, 4 in you include this).Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Not a clue who Horsfield is but I just max bet him to beat Rasmus HojgaardQuote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
As for my bets the first round was of course just a big gamble. But those two bogeys on the easy holes probably make this not much of a sweat for me unfortunately. He will have to get himself in the mix and quickly for any sniff of a chance at an outright.
Just incredible how painful Golf is…even when you have a really tough week and try to take it easy, it still gets to you. I jumped off Bez this week. He ended up shooting 8 under last Sunday and finished 3rd. I don’t think I would of bet him to lead after Round 1, because he is always a slow starter. But this week he did, and if he actually wins the tournament, it will be painful AF.
In short, there is no escaping the pain in Golf. The money to be won in outrights is just too significant. The 2nd and 3rd place finishes eat away at you. The variance is so great. The needle is always there.
Imagine I picked Pavan?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Did Daly say why he as taking a break? Will definitely miss him.
He didn’t say but I’m sure (and hope) it has nothing to do with this thread. I had never met Daly and started to post some golf picks here a little over a year ago. In one tournament we had the two favorites going into Sunday. We swapped like $500 worth of action. His guy won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I said congrats and no rush on the $500. He sent it within an hour (at most) of the tournament ending. Was insistent I get him my Cashapp handle and it was sent in less than 30 seconds after I provided it. A great guy and major asset to this forum and especially this (his) thread.
He is as sharp as they come. Hope he comes back sooner rather than later. A major void without him here. It’s unfortunate but he has to do what is best for him. I would like to thank him for how he has been to me and welcomed me to his thread. Wish him nothing but the best.
Just a quick addition to the story above. My guy was the slight favorite going into the day. But I said let’s just swap and even $500. He said no and insisted I would receive $600 and he would only $500 if his guy won. He sent me $600.
Daly is solid as oak.
He was butthurt about the questionable coin coin debacle, and he seemed to bristle at everyone pointing out that he got in on the ground floor of an obvious pyramid scheme. Even if he didn't know that at first, he certainly wasn't willing to admit the obvious when the proof was laid out for everyone, and seemed to take the whole thing as a personal insult.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I have never even opened that thread. Regardless, I hope he comes back sooner than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyHe was butthurt about the questionable coin coin debacle, and he seemed to bristle at everyone pointing out that he got in on the ground floor of an obvious pyramid scheme. Even if he didn't know that at first, he certainly wasn't willing to admit the obvious when the proof was laid out for everyone, and seemed to take the whole thing as a personal insult.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
In other news I bet Ravens U11 -130 this morning, and it was just announced a couple minutes ago 2 more starters tore their ACL. Talk about accidentally getting on the right side of news.
Edit: Line hasn’t moved at all so either my book is slow or neither player (edwards, peters) factors to men’s much. Edwards is nothing special at RB, so I could see that being a nothing burger. But Peters was a good corner last time I checked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyHe was butthurt about the questionable coin coin debacle, and he seemed to bristle at everyone pointing out that he got in on the ground floor of an obvious pyramid scheme. Even if he didn't know that at first, he certainly wasn't willing to admit the obvious when the proof was laid out for everyone, and seemed to take the whole thing as a personal insult.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
It’s bad Crowe and I want to be clear on that. The whole thing was a bad idea from the start. An account that has been around for a long time and hardly posted, all of a sudden has a lot to say about a new investment opportunity. Goes and gets clearance from Druff and Daly to vouch for him. Was a disaster waiting to happen. The entire thing is extremely disappointing & upsetting.
At the same time it really sucks to not have Daly be a part of this. Just shitty all the way around.
That’s my reaction right now. Daly has always been good to me. It fucking sucks.
Yeah. I have nothing bad to say about Daly. I used to be an ass towards him and complain that he was always giving out bets with stale lines. And I was assuredly in the wrong, he just had a lot of outs and made sure to get the best line. And nothing wrong with that at all.