Shameless self Promoting aside - today is last call for alcohol on Stroud at some of the stale prices still kicking around. If you got a PPH that’s hanging 15-1 or better it will be gone tomorrow.
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Shameless self Promoting aside - today is last call for alcohol on Stroud at some of the stale prices still kicking around. If you got a PPH that’s hanging 15-1 or better it will be gone tomorrow.
My book is 12.5-1. But my book is brutal with these kind of props. I bet if you did the math they are holding 30%+ of the $$.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
To say I had bad timing jumping on Brooks would be a major understatement. First tee shot in the water. Somehow ten footer to save par. Nope. Another ten footer to save par next hole. Nope. Two more 10 footers for birdies. Nope. Nope. Total bedshit.
Need Horsfield to save the week. Early tees got to fade the weather as well. Why bet golf?
BTW Horsfield is +1100. Same odds at the beginning of the tournament.
Lot of other people did the math and figured out he was the odds on favorite to win the job and that he would have a likely 12-0 team and the two best WR in the game at his fingertips.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamMy book is 12.5-1. But my book is brutal with these kind of props. I bet if you did the math they are holding 30%+ of the $$.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Young, Rattler, DJ, JT, Ohio St QB, a basket of “other named others” (Bijon, Howell, King, Slovis) and “everyone unknown else” are the equal share favorites
So pick one player/group and they all roughly +700 - that’s the way I’ve thought about it since June.
The fact that you can now put in ink CJ Stroud at the Ohio St QB means he’s one of the options at about +700.
The hold on these is huge for the book in aggregate. Too many fans of the 130 teams who want to shoot off $100 and every few years you get a out of the blue winner like Smith. But if you paying attention it’s possible to bag a whale (See Joe Borrow).
We got our money in good - now the kid has to perform.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
As happy as I am with the CJ news, anyone do a price check on this bet recently?
What a disaster on the 11th hole with a wedge in hand. Golf is a really humbling sport to bet. May take the week off. This has been a real tough week. We’ll be down $600 after the first month of doing this (unless Brooks shoots 10 under today). All and all ok but this week really hurts. Felt really good about Horsfield and he really put himself behind the 8 ball with the poor second round.
He still had a good bit of chasing to do so the triple bogey probably just allowed me to get some sleep a little earlier at least. Triple with a wedge in hand from the fairway on the second easiest par 4. FFS. Of course the commentators said that expected him to go low on the back nine. Should of just shut it off then.
Keeping myself accountable....
profit 0.74 unitsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sandwich
The “David Price is awful” under strikeout autobet may not make it to the end of the regular season. It has been 4-0 here.
Today my shitty book has under 3.5 +123. The books aren’t idiots, I guess. Price has “never” gone over 4 strikeouts in a start this year and will never either. He has gone 5 innings once. If you have an out with under 4 strikeouts or more push the button and think of me
Mets are wretched last 30 days so there is that. However, they are professionals when at bat and Price has no put away pitch.
Dodgers have been feeding me on the regular so I can’t hate too much but weirdo Price completes me.
I’m gonna chill till Monday for the most part.
Indians are just a numbers/value play
Cleveland Indians -120 for 1st 5 Innings
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to hit the over 9. There is no justification except the fraud show that was the Field of Dreams game. I hate myself for not spotting that over. They served it up on a plate for me and I waved them off.
It’s another Sunday Night Baseball game at a venue like that. It’s at Williamsport which is the home of the Little League World Series. Nobody wants to see a pitchers duel. Baseballs will be chosen with special care for the night.
I am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
It was just a value play without any of my usual hate or conviction. The game is a bum fight.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I might as well get the Ro Ro now.
Good luck to us.
Tuesday looks delectable.
I've always believed in your picks, great seeing you making things happen! College football is soon, anxiously awaiting your picks. Thanks Bro for this $1,000 gift!Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Sir,Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI've always believed in your picks, great seeing you making things happen! College football is soon, anxiously awaiting your picks. Thanks Bro for this $1,000 gift!Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I am looking for another quick grand, can you lend your expertise to a tonight pick? Thank you in advance, Sir.
Tgull
Tap in 3 footer for eagle on 12 to tie the lead. Everyone gonna be chasing TonyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Don’t think this deserves another thread so I’ll put it here…
Just tuned in to the Jags/Saints game and saw they renamed the Superdome the Caesars Superdome..:
I never in a million years thought I’d say this but brilliant move by the evil empire there…the new corporate overlords must have some money to spend…
I “bet him for the max” on day one. Max being 1/10th of what I had on Rory. Nice way to backdoor a small win on the weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Tap in 3 footer for eagle on 12 to tie the lead. Everyone gonna be chasing TonyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I will always respect and root for Finau. 3ish years ago I faded the shit out of him at the masters when he rolled his ankle over and posted pictures on Twitter. His entire lower leg was purple. He went on to stick it in my ass and finished about 10th place (like he almost always does). I said I’d never bet against him again.
I was able to sneak in a Yankees under for $1,000 4.5 in 5 innings last night. Easy money. hehehe. Hope everyone is ballin' like me.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullSir,Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I am looking for another quick grand, can you lend your expertise to a tonight pick? Thank you in advance, Sir.
Tgull
Something quick
Dodgers just announced Urias vs Padres opener Pierce (Brosnan) Johnson. Market hasn’t reacted.
Dodgers series -140 vs free falling Padres
Padres just fired pitching coach today. Interesting on a bullpen day
Tomorrow Buehler V Snell
Scherzer v unknown
Unknown v Unknown.
Urias, Buehler & Scherzer …. Scherzer wasn’t sharp last time out, I must admit. Not saying he was bad at all. Just not Scherzer-like. Nimrod Dave Roberts allows Scherzer to pitch too long cause he’s afraid of him on game day. Scherzer might be a little tired. Hopefully not dead arm.
Padres have owned the Dodgers previously but that’s history talking. Sharps with numbers need to adjust. Bet now or pay more later.
I’m late today with my homework
Arizona Diamondbacks -130 for 1st 5 Innings L
AZ Bumgarner v Pitt Brubaker
I just don’t understand this except that Diamondbacks have an infamously bad road record 15-48. So AZ would be a auto fade for most for good reason. Bumgarner is an anomaly. They still have a trash bullpen but for 5 innings I gotta make a bet. It’s a bum fight for sure so hold your nose.
I generally stay away from overs in baseball, it's served me well. BUT tonight I am taking the over on the Angels - Baltimore game. Both these pitchers are beyond awful. Line is 10, which is high but FFS this could be 8-7 by the 5th inning. These pitchers are that awful. Laying 4 bills. I hate overs in baseball, but whatever taking a risk.
I won’t try to explain my process when it comes to picking golf, but I’ll talk it out one time.
I like X and JT. At open they were priced ~ 20-1 and right in the thick of that “second choice layer” with Colin, DJ, Speith and I’m happy to say Cameron Smith. To pick any two of these guys isn’t really going out of a limb but I do like the form of these two guys. I made some bets on these two.
Figured I was done
Sometimes you just need to pay attention to what’s going on around you and then you can start connecting the dots and fall into what may be a good punt based on people smarter than you. I’m not a Bryson guy. I do like money however. He opened in the +2500 range. On b00kmaker, the sharpest of the books IMHO he has been hammered down to the clear second choice at +1400. He’s still at many locals in the mid 20’s.
We are looking at a wide open fairly long course measuring ~7550 yards, par 72 with 4 par 5’s. Long, wide open, 4 par 5’s. That’s Bryson alright.
I went back and added another bullet where I could find him in the mid 20’s. The fellas might be onto something here.
Wish I saw this. It. I gut have inspired me to think about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Zero stress. Beautiful
It was a great pull. I should have quadrupled my bet, as this one was an easy one. Oh well, a win is a win. Getting ready for college football.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWish I saw this. It. I gut have inspired me to think about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Zero stress. Beautiful
Who are you going with in week 0/1?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullIt was a great pull. I should have quadrupled my bet, as this one was an easy one. Oh well, a win is a win. Getting ready for college football.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Bets for August 23 - Aug 29 (Week 5)
Current
Korn Ferry Shriner’s Hospital - C Bezuidenhout to win $1000 at +1600 (MGM)
PGA BMW Championship - X Schaufelle to win $1000 at +2000 (Ceasers)
New
European Omega European Master - Sam Horsfield to win $600 at +3000(MGM)
Start $50,000 Remaining $46,800 Current Week $0 Last Week -$3,600
Total Win/Loss -$600
———————————-
This one went in late because Ceasers was showing +3300 but every time I bet they would say line changed to +2800. Which they are not allowed to do. But I called them and they just gave me a bunch of bullshit. No one is betting this shit out here and the trader is not allowed to wait for a bet and change the odds. I’m sure they will say it was a glitch. Had to take the 30-1. High variance weekend.
GL
Orioles are giving out free money so why not. I’ll tell you why not. I’m gonna be diving for used golf balls soon cause you know how this all starts.
Lol, sharp money piling in on Orioles. Keep trying … eventually they will win. Sharp
Parlay +126
Golf - 7121 Jon Rahm -175
BMW Champioship Round 1
Jon Rahm -175 v Cameron Smith
Baseball - 915 Los Angeles Angels (Ohtani) -227 for 1st 5 Innings W
Just f’ing around
Let’s go Dodgers
SF +108. W3.
Duplicate Post. Sorry long day guys. This has all the bets for the week. Messed up copy and pasting so wanted to make sure I got this in as the last post so it wasn’t missed if you want to play along. High variance stuff.
Bets for August 23 - Aug 29 (Week 5)
Current
Korn Ferry Shriner’s Hospital - C Bezuidenhout to win $1000 at +1600 (MGM)
PGA BMW Championship - X Schaufelle to win $1000 at +2000 (Ceasers)
New
European Omega European Masters- Sam Horsfield to win $600 at +3000(MGM)
Start $50,000 Remaining $46,800 Current Week $0 Last Week -$3,600
Total Win/Loss -$600
———————————-
This one went in late because Ceasers was showing +3300 but every time I bet they would say line changed to +2800. Which they are not allowed to do. But I called them and they just gave me a bunch of bullshit. No one is betting this shit out here and the trader is not allowed to wait for a bet and change the odds. I’m sure they will say it was a glitch. Had to take the 30-1. High variance weekend.
GL
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
Golf - Omega European Masters - Tournament Winner
To Win Outright
Sam Horsfield +2900 08/25/2021 (10:00 PM) (Pending)
-------------------
Xander I only got 15-1
Orioles, baby
^^^^
My dorm roommate at UMASS, early in our freshman year, said he could get us a neon beer light from his distributor friend. What's cooler than that in the window facing University Drive, right? I assumed it would be a Bud sign or maybe a Coors Light or some other common deal, but as it turned out, people weren't willing to just give him any of those, or even sell them for less than $170 I think the rate was. We ended up with a Genessee Cream Ale sign. He was so proud of that sign, when he was away, people would ask if he was seeing his girl Genessee.
Not a great story, but its a wagering thread, so that's the best I can offer.
I have my own UMass story
I have a bunch of UMASS grads that asked me to send in a 3k to win 2k bet on over 1.5 wins for UMass. I should have held it. They are awful.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI have my own UMass story
Would of been nice for X to hit one of those 7 footers on 10 and 11. Seems lately the guys I’m taking are underperforming with the flat stick. Last week I knew once Brooks wasn’t going to contend he was not risking his knee to read putts. But x you figure he will be pretty solid there. Really can’t give up many shots with the way Rahm looks in particular.
As for Horsefield, at least I’m glad I bet less than the usual on him. Sometimes the guys stink up the joint.
We will see with Bez. He’s a great putter and that is going to have to hold true and fast.
My Ohtani Rahm +126 parlay came through.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If ya need golf advice I’m here now
European Omega Masters $500 on T Detry +1600 I'll add it later
Don't love it enough to push but it could be a surprise that could save the week. Bez shit bed Looks like he likes it so much on the Lorn Ferry he may stay there
Bet was revised from $400 to $500 at 7:45 PM
@jeffdime
Loved your PartyPoker FPP main event story in the other thread. You gotta lose to learn how to win. I’m gonna get you a book deal.
In your travels do wager anything other than golf ?
I haven't posted much baseball, but here's a double pick starting very shortly:
Oakland (Kaprielian) +114 vs. Yankees (Taillon)
Oakland/Yankees under 8.5 +100
Can someone please bump Daly's post from a couple weeks ago where he lists some college football season win bets he liked. I want to make some plays today but can't find the post and am on phone, so pain in the ass to look for it.
Horsfield came 5th from last. What an absolute torch job by me. Hoping to make up for it with Detry.
Going to have to fade my old buddy Burmester.
Bets for August 23 - Aug 29 (Week 5)
Current
Korn Ferry Shriner’s Hospital - C Bezuidenhout to win $1000 at +1600
PGA BMW Championship - X Schaufelle to win $1000 at +2000
R2 Updated Odds Euro Omega Master - Thomas Detry to win $500 at +1600
Torched
European Omega European Master - Sam Horsfield to win $600 at +3000 (L)
Start $50,000 Remaining $46,300 Current Week $-600 Last Week -$3,600
Total Win/Loss -$1,200
———————————-
Horsfield terrible bet. Detry great bet, regardless of outcome. Bez is drawing live at least. Have to see afternoon wave. X, we’ll see.
UFC on ESPN 30....
1u Sabatini +130
1.5u Jacoby -180
1u Alvey +115
1u Alhassan +200
1.5u D. Rodriguez +130
1u Gilbert Urbina +150
1u Giga Chikadze +105
0.2u Giga Chikadze by KO/TKO/Disq./Submission +275